MID-JUNE SITREP SUPPORT
LEAD STORIES
Russia Designates US an Enemy for the First Time Siting Tension Over Ukraine
The Kremlin officially designates the United States as an "enemy" for the first time, according to Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's press secretary, citing escalating tensions over Ukraine's use of American-supplied weapons on Russian soil. This declaration marks a significant departure from previous rhetoric and underscores a deepening animosity between the two superpowers. The announcement coincides with former American intelligence officer Scott Ritter's claim of being barred from traveling to Russia, further straining diplomatic relations. President Joe Biden's recent decision to permit Ukraine to use certain American weapons against Russian targets intensifies the situation, prompting stern warnings from Putin and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov against potential miscalculations. The Kremlin's shift in tone reflects a recalibration of its foreign policy amid what it perceives as increasing American hostility, while also highlighting internal dynamics within the U.S. administration and its handling of the Ukraine crisis, which could have profound implications for international relations and global security.
Russia Welcomes Turkey’s Reported Desire to Join BRICS
Russia's Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed Russia's approval of Turkey's reported interest in joining the BRICS group of nations, indicating that the topic would be discussed at the organization's upcoming summit. While Peskov acknowledged the growing interest in BRICS from various states, he cautioned that the group might not be able to accommodate all interested nations completely. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent visit to Beijing, where he engaged in discussions with Chinese officials, marked the highest-level Turkish visit to a BRICS member since 2012. When questioned about Turkey's desire to join BRICS during a talk in China, Fidan expressed the country's interest, although he did not provide further details. Fidan also mentioned Ankara's intention to cooperate with BRICS members and stated his attendance at an upcoming meeting of the group in Russia. Despite this, it remains uncertain whether Ankara will formally pursue membership in BRICS, as it has not previously articulated such aspirations.
Third Case of Human Bird Flu Confirmed in US
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed a third human case of bird flu linked to the ongoing outbreak in dairy cows, marking the nation's fourth A(H5N1) avian influenza case. Unlike previous cases, this individual experienced traditional flu-like symptoms, signaling potential mutation and spread concerns. The infected worker, unrelated to previous outbreaks, exhibited upper respiratory symptoms after exposure to H5N1-infected cows in Michigan. Treatment with oseltamivir (Tamiflu) is underway, with the patient isolating at home. Despite no evidence of human-to-human transmission, contacts are monitored and offered preventive treatment. Meanwhile, states, including Georgia, are bolstering PPE distribution to farm workers. Michigan's proactive testing and monitoring detected the latest case, underscoring the importance of mitigation efforts. The USDA offers financial assistance to affected dairy farmers for PPE supply and worker participation in health studies. As the outbreak expands, experts emphasize PPE use among farm workers, urging continuous refinement of public policy to safeguard human health.
Mexico Confirms First Case of Human Fatality from Bird Flu Subtype
The World Health Organization confirmed the first fatal case of H5N2 avian influenza in Mexico, marking the first-ever laboratory-confirmed human infection of this subtype globally. The patient, a 59-year-old with underlying health conditions, exhibited symptoms such as fever and respiratory distress before succumbing to the virus. Despite contact tracing efforts, no further cases have been identified among those in proximity to the patient. Mexico's Ministry of Health reassured the public of the low risk of contagion, emphasizing the absence of identified sources of infection. Meanwhile, in the United States, an outbreak of the H5N1 strain has affected millions of birds and a few farmworkers, though the risk to the general population remains low, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dr. John Brownstein underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance of influenza viruses in both animals and humans, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance against potential outbreaks.
Vice President of Malawi and Nine Others Die in Plane Crash
The Vice President of Malawi, Saulos Chilima, has been killed in a plane crash, local news reports. The Malawi Defense Force-operated flight went missing on Monday after departing from the capital, Lilongwe, and was confirmed crashed by President Lazarus Chakwera on Tuesday. The crash, which occurred en route to Mzuzu International Airport in northern Malawi, resulted in the deaths of Chilima and nine others. The cause of the crash remains unknown. In a national address, President Chakwera expressed his condolences, praising Chilima as a patriotic and honorable deputy. A search and rescue operation led by the Malawi Defense Force is ongoing, with the president insisting it continue until the aircraft is located. Chilima, 51, served as Vice President since 2014 and was reelected in 2020. Prior to his political career, he held senior positions in the banking and consumer goods sectors, including at Coca-Cola and Carlsberg.
Russian Naval Military Exercises Begin Operating out of Cuba
Three Russian ships and a nuclear-powered submarine are set to arrive in Cuba this week ahead of planned military exercises in the Caribbean, according to officials. Although the exercises are not perceived as a threat to the U.S., American ships have been deployed to monitor the Russians, as revealed by U.S. officials to CBS News. The Russian vessels, including a frigate, a fleet oil tanker, and a salvage tug, are expected to dock in Havana on Wednesday and remain until next Monday, as stated by Cuba's Foreign Ministry. While the U.S. intelligence community has confirmed the nuclear-powered nature of the submarine, it is clarified that it is not carrying nuclear weapons. The ships' arrival precedes Russia's scheduled air and naval exercises in the Caribbean over the coming weeks, marking the first simultaneous air and naval maneuvers since 2019. Despite implications of Russia's disapproval regarding U.S. actions concerning Ukraine, U.S. officials emphasize that there is no anticipated threat to American national security in the region. Additionally, the ships may potentially visit Venezuela, according to a U.S. official.
Russian State TV Warns of Possible Deployment of ICBMs in Mexico
Jake Broe, a former U.S. Air Force nuclear and missile operations officer, raised concerns over Russian state TV's declaration of Mexico as their military ally and their alleged intent to deploy missiles on Mexican soil to target the United States, labeling it as "insane." This assertion came days after Russian media pundits suggested deploying nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in the Caribbean in response to NATO's support for Ukraine's potential attacks on Russian territory. The program "60 Minutes" on the Russian channel discussed NATO's escalation in providing long-range weapons to Ukraine and speculated on Moscow's potential asymmetric responses, including positioning missiles in allied nations like Venezuela, Cuba, and North Korea. While President Putin expressed hope for de-escalation with the West, he also threatened to supply advanced weapons to countries considered "enemies of the West" in response to NATO's actions. Despite Mexico's official policy of neutrality, it has refrained from endorsing U.S.-led sanctions on Moscow, although it has previously condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
January-May Russian Oil and Gas Revenues Surged by 73.5%
Russia's budget revenues from oil and gas surged by 73.5% in January-May 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, reaching $55.7 billion (4.95 trillion Russian rubles), as reported by Russia's finance ministry. The increase in revenues reflects a steady surplus expected in the coming months, aligning with socioeconomic projections. Additionally, non-oil and gas revenues also rose by 34% during this period. Despite Western sanctions and attempts to cap oil prices, Russia has managed to boost its oil income by finding buyers willing to purchase its crude and refined products. Factors such as a weaker Russian ruble and higher international oil prices contributed to this revenue increase. Despite efforts to curb Putin's income from oil, Russia's oil proceeds nearly doubled in April 2024 compared to the previous year, highlighting the challenges Western countries face in reducing Russia's oil revenue.
Beginning of the End for the Petro-Dollar? Saudi Arabia Ends Petro-Dollar Deal with US
Saudi Arabia's decision not to renew its 80-year petro-dollar deal with the United States marks a significant shift in global economics. The original agreement, signed in 1974, bolstered US economic dominance by pegging Saudi oil sales exclusively to the US dollar. Now expired as of June 9, this decision allows Saudi Arabia to diversify sales, including oil and other goods, in currencies like the Chinese RMB, Euros, Yen, and Yuan, and potentially explore digital currencies like Bitcoin. This move away from the petrodollar system, initiated when the US abandoned the gold standard in 1972, is expected to accelerate the global transition away from the US dollar as the primary reserve currency. Concurrently, Saudi Arabia's involvement in Project mBridge, a multi-central bank digital currency platform, underscores its broader economic strategy to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and reduce reliance on traditional financial infrastructures, with support from global entities including central banks and international organizations.
Biden Administration is “Overstating” Jobs Admits Fed Reserve Chair Powell
The Biden Administration has come under scrutiny after release of the latest US Jobs report, revealing discrepancies and alleged manipulations in economic data. Despite claims of a robust economy by the Labor Department, critiques highlighted significant flaws. The report noted an increase of 272,000 payrolls, yet excluded multiple job holders, revealing a decline of 408,000 employed workers and a surprising rise in the unemployment rate to 4.0%. This discrepancy between payroll gains and actual employment was attributed partly to the Birth/Death adjustment, a controversial statistical method. Moreover, the shift from full-time to part-time jobs continues unabated, with 625,000 full-time positions lost and 286,000 part-time jobs gained in May alone. Shockingly, the data suggests that all net job growth since 2018 has gone to foreign-born workers, predominantly illegal immigrants, fueling political controversy. Federal Reserve Chair Powell indirectly acknowledged these issues, implying the administration's role in data manipulation during a recent press conference. This revelation challenges the narrative of a thriving labor market under Biden, underscoring persistent economic challenges and public distrust in reported statistics.
BORDER CRISIS
Finally, Biden Set to Sign Executive Order to Limit Border Crossings
President Joe Biden is taking steps to address the surge in migrant crossings by signing an executive order aimed at slowing the flow into the United States. This order, following his criticism of Donald Trump's border security policies, seeks to cut asylum claims by around two-thirds and cap daily encounters at 2,500 crossings, with an allowance for mass asylum claims once encounters drop to 1,500 per day. April saw approximately 4,300 daily encounters, excluding unrecorded entries. Biden's move comes after the White House previously stated it wouldn't resort to executive action for border security.
Half of New Jobs Created Going to Illegal immigrants Congressional Report Finds
The House Budget Committee released a report indicating that over half of all new jobs since November have been filled by immigrants, including those in the country illegally. This follows the Labor Department's May jobs report showing a slight decrease in labor participation to 62.5% and a rise in unemployment to 4%, despite the addition of 272,000 new jobs. Committee chairman Jodey Arrington criticized the Biden administration, attributing much of the job gains to illegal immigrants, which he argued reflects a weaker economy than portrayed. In contrast, Democrats highlighted the overall economic strength, citing continuous job growth and rising wages over 40 months. However, House Republicans criticized these claims, pointing out demographic disparities such as increased unemployment among Asian Americans, blacks, and Hispanics in May. The report underscores ongoing debate over the impact of immigration policies on job markets and broader economic metrics under the current administration.
Despite Border Crackdown Biden Admin Released 72% of Illegals Migrants Entering San Diego Sector
The Biden administration has released 72% of migrants who entered unlawfully through the San Diego border sector, contradicting its proclaimed crackdown on border security. Between June 5 and Tuesday, over 4,900 out of more than 6,800 encountered migrants were released, as per internal federal data reported by the New York Post. San Diego, a hotspot for illegal crossings, faces challenges in managing the influx. A leaked Border Patrol guidance document revealed that migrants from most countries in Africa, Asia, Australia, and Europe are being released into the U.S. rather than deported, with exceptions for only six countries. Critics, including Manny Bayon, President of the National Border Patrol Council for the San Diego sector, denounce this as deceptive policy. Issues with countries' reluctance to accept deportees exacerbate enforcement challenges. President Biden's recent executive order aims to halt border crossings surpassing 2,500 daily for seven consecutive days, reflecting ongoing public and electoral concerns over immigration policy changes reversing those of the previous administration, such as the controversial Remain in Mexico policy.
BOHICA!
If Trump Forces Pease Deal Trump would be a ‘Loser’ Says Zelensky
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cautioned that if former President Donald Trump pushes Kyiv into accepting a peace deal with Russia, he would risk being remembered as a "loser" president and potentially ignite a Third World War. Speaking to Britain's Guardian newspaper, Zelensky emphasized the importance of upholding Ukraine's sovereignty and resisting any territorial concessions to Russia, including the Eastern Donbas region and Crimea. He criticized the notion of Washington appeasing Moscow, warning of the global implications and the potential for other authoritarian regimes to emulate Putin's aggressive tactics. Zelensky also expressed dissatisfaction with the limitations placed on Ukrainian military capabilities by the U.S., particularly regarding the use of ATACMS missiles against Russian targets. Despite ongoing efforts to garner international support for peace talks, Zelensky remains steadfast in his commitment to restoring Ukraine's borders and securing its independence from Russian aggression.
House Defense Spending Bill Forces Arms Transfers to Israel, Omits Ukraine Aid
The House defense spending panel has advanced the initial draft of its Pentagon funding bill for fiscal 2025, totaling $833 billion, despite objections from Democrats. The bill includes contentious provisions such as prohibiting the president from withholding arms transfers to Israel and omitting security assistance for Ukraine. Additionally, it moves Mexico from U.S. Northern Command to U.S. Southern Command and prevents the Pentagon from implementing President Biden's climate change executive orders. Democrats, notably Rep. Rosa DeLauro, criticize the absence of funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, vital for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression. The bill also overrides procurement decisions from the FY25 defense authorization bill, increasing funding for F-35 fighter jets while neglecting a second Virginia-class attack submarine. These actions reflect partisan divisions, with some GOP members questioning the prioritization of Ukraine aid over defense acquisitions.
G7 to Agree to Loan $50 Billion to Ukraine at Italy Summit
At their summit in southern Italy, G7 leaders are set to approve a new $50 billion loan for Ukraine, sourced from profits obtained by freezing Russian assets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will join heads of state from the U.S., Italy, Britain, France, Germany, Canada, and Japan at the luxury Borgo Egnazia resort in Puglia. The funds are earmarked to bolster Kyiv's defense capabilities, support its budget, and aid in post-war reconstruction following prolonged conflict with Russia. This loan, secured against future interest on $325 billion of frozen Russian central bank assets, represents a concerted effort by Western allies to demonstrate unity, support Ukraine significantly, and alleviate financial pressures on national budgets. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner hailed the decision as a positive step, leveraging frozen assets' interest to deliver substantial aid. French President Emmanuel Macron's office indicated confidence in finalizing the agreement by year-end, while U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized ongoing discussions to finalize operational details during the summit.
$404 Million in Humanitarian Aid for Palestinians Announced by US
The United States has announced an additional $404 million in humanitarian aid for Palestinian civilians in Gaza, the West Bank, and the surrounding region, bringing total U.S. assistance to over $674 million in the past eight months. The State Department highlighted the urgent need for aid due to dire humanitarian conditions and called on other donors to support life-saving operations for Palestinians. The new funding will provide essential services such as food, safe drinking water, health care, protection, education, shelter, and psychosocial support. The U.S. reiterated its commitment to addressing the humanitarian needs of those affected by the ongoing crisis and urged other donors to increase their contributions and work together for lasting solutions.
WAR (and rumors of war)
US MILITARY
Satellite Data Suggests US Navy ‘Shadowing’ Russian Navy Off Florida Coast
U.S. naval and air assets are reportedly shadowing Russian warships en route to Cuba, as revealed by open-source maritime and aerial tracking data. The tracking indicates that the U.S. Coast Guard vessel CG Stone, the destroyers USS Truxtun and USS Donald Cook, and the Canadian frigate HMCS Ville de Quebec are following the Russian flotilla down Florida's eastern coast. Additionally, surveillance is being conducted by at least one U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon and a Canadian CP-140 Aurora. The Russian fleet, consisting of the Gorshkov frigate, the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, the fleet oil tanker Pashin, and the rescue tug Nikolay Chiker, is expected to arrive in Cuba on Wednesday. This movement is seen as a response to increased NATO support for Ukraine, although the Pentagon has stated there is no immediate threat posed by the Russian visit. Such Russian naval visits to Cuba have occurred regularly from 2013 to 2020 and are considered routine despite the heightened geopolitical context. Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested potential consequences for NATO nations supporting Ukraine.
US Tests New Hypersonic Nuke Missile Able to Reach Moscow in 30 Minutes
The US military conducted a hypersonic nuclear missile test, launching an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The missile, capable of reaching Moscow in just 30 minutes, aimed to demonstrate the readiness and confidence of US nuclear forces as a deterrent. Colonel Bryan Titus highlighted the significance of the test, emphasizing the expertise of the team. Scheduled for this week, the demonstration marks the first of two tests, underscoring the missile's capability to reach distant targets like Russia and China swiftly. Concurrently, the US flew a B-1B bomber over the Korean Peninsula, conducting precision-guided bombing drills with South Korea, employing Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs). This display of military prowess is viewed as a response to North Korea's recent provocations, including launching balloons containing various debris toward South Korea, prompting heightened tensions and retaliatory measures.
FORTRESS EUROPE
NATO Reveals ‘Land Corridors’ for US Troops in Case of War with Russia
NATO is rapidly developing new logistics routes across Europe to facilitate the quick movement of U.S. forces toward Eastern Europe in anticipation of a potential broader conflict with Russia. The planned "land corridors" are designed to expedite the transport of troops and supplies through multiple European countries, including routes from Italy to Slovenia, Croatia, and Hungary, as well as through Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and Scandinavia. This initiative comes amidst increasing concerns over direct conflict with Russia following over two years of war in Ukraine. The new routes aim to ensure that infrastructure can support heavy military equipment, signaling NATO's readiness for a broader war. The U.S. already maintains a significant military presence in Europe, with around 100,000 personnel, and has strengthened its forces since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These plans, intended to enhance NATO's defensive capabilities, involve improving logistical support and infrastructure resilience. Observations from the Ukraine conflict have influenced these preparations, emphasizing the need for robust and redundant logistics to withstand potential Russian missile strikes.
Planning of Arms Deliveries to Ukraine to be Controlled by NATO
NATO will take over the coordination of arms deliveries to Ukraine, a role previously held by the United States, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced. This transition aims to ensure continuous military aid to Ukraine amid potential changes in U.S. foreign policy with Donald Trump's possible second presidential term. Stoltenberg anticipates NATO defense ministers will approve a plan to lead the coordination of security assistance and training for Ukraine, emphasizing this as a crucial part of NATO’s support package. This decision highlights a significant shift in NATO’s involvement, reinforcing its commitment to aiding Ukraine against Russian aggression. The new plan includes coordinating military aid and training Ukrainian forces, solidifying NATO's role in the conflict. Additionally, the initiative is part of a broader package to be discussed at the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, which includes a long-term financial commitment to Ukraine.
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
After Uptick in Attacks by Hezbollah, Fires Rage in Northern Israel
Hezbollah's intensified rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel have ignited widespread wildfires in the Galilee region, with reports indicating over 20 fires in various locations. The fires, fueled by rocket impacts, have devastated homes in Kiryat Shmona and threaten additional communities. Fire and rescue teams are working tirelessly to contain the blazes, which have also spread to the Golan Heights. The escalation in hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border, coupled with Israel's expanded offensive in southern Gaza, has heightened tensions. Hezbollah's recent launch of drones and Katyusha rockets has triggered air raid sirens across northern Israel, resulting in interceptions and widespread damage. The conflict has claimed hundreds of lives in Lebanon, including Hezbollah militants and civilians, as well as casualties in Israel. The situation remains volatile, with political pressure mounting for a resolution to the crisis.
Houthi Missile Strikes Damage Two Ships According to US CENTCOM
Yemen's Houthi rebels launched missile attacks targeting two commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden within the last 24 hours, as reported by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on Sunday. One vessel, the Tavvishi, a Liberian-flagged and Swiss-owned container ship, was struck by an anti-ship ballistic missile, sustaining damage but with no reported injuries to the crew. The other vessel, the Norderney, a German-owned cargo ship flying Antigua and Barbados flags, was hit by two missiles but continued its journey after sustaining damage and without injuries to its crew. The Houthis have previously claimed responsibility for the attacks, stating they hit both vessels and allegedly set the Norderney on fire. These attacks are part of the Houthis' ongoing campaign against international ocean shipping, disrupting global trade routes and raising concerns about the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. In response, the United States and Britain have conducted strikes against Houthi targets, with CENTCOM also reporting the destruction of an unmanned aerial system and land attack cruise missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Netherlands Says Ukraine Can Use F-16s to Strike Inside Russia Joining Demark
The Netherlands has joined Denmark in supporting Ukraine's right to attack inside Russian territory, including using F-16 fighter jets, as part of its self-defense. Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot emphasized the principle of self-defense without borders for the use of weapons. Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen had previously stated that such actions would be within the rules of war. These declarations follow the formation of a US-approved fighter jet coalition comprising the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium, which will oversee the transfer of American-made F-16s to Ukraine. Moscow perceives this as a significant escalation, particularly given the F-16s' capability to carry tactical nuclear weapons. President Putin warned of serious consequences, while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed Moscow's threats, emphasizing Russia's prior escalation by invading another country. However, not all coalition members have endorsed attacks on Russian territory, with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo stipulating that the jets provided to Ukraine can only be used within Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine Waste No Time Attacking Long-Range SAM System Inside Russia with US Weapon
Video and images have surfaced on social media allegedly showing the destruction of an S-400 or S-300 surface-to-air missile system in Belgorod, Russia, by a HIMARS attack. This incident, occurring about 30 miles north of the Ukrainian border, follows the Biden administration's recent approval for the use of U.S.-donated weapons, such as HIMARS, on Russian soil to disrupt Russian offensives near Kharkiv. The Russian Spy Dossier Telegram channel posted a 10-second video and three images depicting flames and smoke, with additional photos showing damaged S-400 or S-300 components. While the exact cause of the destruction remains unverified, it aligns with the U.S.'s new policy allowing strikes on Russian targets posing threats to Ukraine. The Pentagon deferred comments to Ukrainian forces, who have not yet issued a statement. Russian Telegram channels and Ukrainian media suggest the attack used HIMARS-launched Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) munitions. The strike resulted in casualties and significant equipment loss, prompting a stern warning from Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov against U.S. weapon use on Russian territory.
Russia Claims US Faces ‘Fatal Consequences’ for Letting Ukraine Use US Weapons to Directly Target Russia
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the United States of potential "fatal consequences" after reports surfaced that President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to target Russian positions, particularly in response to attacks on Kharkiv. Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Poland, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressed support for Ukraine's right to self-defense. Ryabkov criticized U.S. officials for underestimating the severity of the situation and urged them to heed President Putin's warnings. Putin had cautioned against Western escalation, implying the risk of a global conflict, especially highlighting the vulnerability of European countries. Ryabkov also hinted at possible asymmetrical responses from Russia, alleging Ukrainian attacks on Russian military assets, including a reported incident involving a HIMARS rocket system targeting Belgorod. The situation underscores escalating tensions between Russia and Western nations, raising concerns about the potential for further conflict.
Ukrainian Officials Further Restrict Draft-Age Men from Leaving the Country
Ukrainian men of draft age with permanent residency in other countries will largely be unable to leave Ukraine if they visit, as officials tighten restrictions to bolster the military ranks. Ukraine, which recently lowered the mobilization age from 27 to 25, is seeking fresh recruits for its armed forces. Previously, men aged 18 to 60 with permanent residency abroad were allowed to travel outside the country. Now, they will be subject to the same travel restrictions as other military-age men, who can only leave under narrow exceptions such as health reasons or government-approved trips. The US Embassy in Kyiv confirmed the elimination of the "residence abroad" exception effective June 1. Border Guard spokesman Andriy Demchenko stated that Ukraine does not recognize dual citizenship and that men with permanent residency in another country are no longer allowed to leave. The US Embassy advised Ukrainian-Americans to avoid traveling to Ukraine if they do not wish to remain there indefinitely, as changes in legislation related to military service have limited their ability to exit.
US Patriot Missile Shot Down Russian A-50 Early Warning Aircraft
At the United States Field Artillery Association’s Fires Symposium 2024, Col. Rosanna Clemente, Assistant Chief of Staff at the 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command, confirmed that a U.S.-made Patriot air defense system was responsible for shooting down a Russian A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft over the Sea of Azov on January 14. She described the incident as a “SAMbush,” detailing how the highly mobile Patriot systems, donated by Germany and operated by Ukraine, were deployed close to the plot to engage the A-50. The successful downing of the A-50 marked a significant achievement for Ukrainian-operated Patriot systems, part of a broader campaign targeting Russian Aerospace Forces. These tactics, which included pushing Patriot batteries deep into Russian-controlled airspace, aimed to push back Russian airpower and degrade its ability to launch attacks on Ukrainian territory. This victory underscores the effectiveness of anti-access strategies against Russian air assets, including vital airborne early warning and control aircraft, ultimately reducing the threat posed by Russian air operations to Ukraine.
Following Naval Losses Russia Now Utilizing Submarines to Patrol Black Sea
Russia's naval fleet in the Black Sea has faced significant losses due to Ukrainian military actions, prompting a shift to submarine operations for patrolling purposes, according to recent reports. Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for Kyiv’s Southern Defense Forces, disclosed on national television that Russian forces now rotate submarines in the Azov-Black Sea region, with four submarines, including three cruise missile carriers, actively deployed. Ukrainian claims suggest they have destroyed approximately 30 percent of Moscow’s Black Sea fleet by the end of 2023, including notable incidents like the sinking of patrol boats by Magura V5 naval drones earlier this year. Russia has responded by organizing training for ships in the Sea of Azov and fortifying defenses with barge-like structures to protect their vessels. Despite these measures, Pletenchuk noted limitations in Russian naval operations due to the shallow waters of the Sea of Azov. The ongoing conflict has seen Ukraine inflict severe losses on Russia's naval capabilities, including sinking significant vessels like the Moskva cruiser and the catastrophic damage to the Rostov-on-Don.
Russia’s Kerch Bridge Now Being Protected by S-500 Prometheus Air Defense System
Russia has reportedly deployed its advanced S-500 air defense system to Crimea, specifically around the Kerch Bridge, according to Lt. Gen Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate. This move, if confirmed, marks the first operational deployment of the S-500, named Prometey (Prometheus), outside of testing environments. Designed to enhance Russia’s ballistic missile defense capabilities, the S-500 is set to replace the A-135 anti-ballistic missile system near Moscow and supplement the S-400 Triumf system. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu previously announced plans for the S-500’s deployment in 2024, featuring both missile defense and anti-aircraft versions. The system’s capabilities were demonstrated in tests, including successfully intercepting ballistic missile surrogates. As tensions persist around the Kerch Bridge, a focal point of Ukrainian-Russian conflict, the deployment underscores Russia’s strategic defense priorities in the region amidst ongoing military confrontations.
Tactical Nuclear Drills Resumed by Russian
Russia has initiated the second phase of its tactical nuclear weapons exercise, citing perceived Western provocations as justification for the maneuvers. The drills, announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense on Telegram, involve joint training of Russian and Belarusian forces in Russia’s Southern Military District. Aimed at preparing personnel and equipment for the combat deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons, the exercise emphasizes safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Union State. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defended the drills, attributing them to heightened tensions in Europe and alleged hostile actions by the United States and European allies. Footage released by the Russian Ministry of Defense showcases exercises with Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, MiG-31K aircraft, and Tu-22M3 bombers armed with Kh-22 and Kh-32 missiles, some capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a key ally of Russia, previously disclosed the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, further underscoring Moscow's strategic positioning amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
INDO-PACIFIC
Australia Plans to Open Military to Non-Citizens due to Shortage of Troops
Australia will permit non-citizens to join its armed forces to address recruitment challenges, the government announced Tuesday. From July, permanent residents living in Australia for 12 months will be eligible to serve, with preference given to citizens from Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. Despite extensive defense spending on submarines, jets, and fighting vehicles, Australia struggles to recruit sufficient pilots, mariners, and troops. The Australian Defense Forces currently have about 90,000 personnel, including reserves, which experts say is insufficient to meet both current and future military needs. In contrast, China’s military boasts around two million personnel. Defense Minister Richard Marles emphasized that expanding the Australian Defense Force is crucial for national security in the coming decade and beyond.
China Lands Spacecraft on Far Side of the Moon in ‘Historic Moment’
Over the weekend, Boeing's crewed Starliner spacecraft launch to the International Space Station (ISS) was postponed once again, while China's Chang'e-6 lander successfully landed on the far side of the moon. The lander, launched on May 3 from China's Wenchang Space Launch Center, touched down at the South Pole-Aitken Basin on Sunday morning. Equipped with a mechanical arm and a drill bit, it aims to extract a 4.4-pound core sample from the lunar surface, to be returned to Earth by the end of June. Landing on the moon's far side poses challenges due to communication limitations, necessitating the use of LiDAR and optical cameras for navigation. Chang'e-6 marks China's fourth lunar landing attempt, with previous successes including Chang'e-4 in 2019. Scientists anticipate that data collected from the mission will offer valuable insights into lunar volcanic activity and contribute to our understanding of the moon's geological history.
GEOPOLITICS
Mainstream Holds Majority but Far-Right Parties Make Significant Strides in Europe
Far-right parties made significant gains in the European Union elections that ended Sunday, although centrist parties still maintain control with a majority of 403 out of 720 seats. In France, the far-right Rally National's victory prompted President Emmanuel Macron to call for elections. Germany saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) rise to over 15% of the vote, despite a scandal involving candidate Maximilian Krah. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party had its worst result at 14.1%, and the Greens fell to fourth place with 12%. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party won nearly 29%, ahead of the center-left PD's 23%. Austria's far-right Freedom Party led with 25.7%, surpassing the conservative People's Party and Social Democrats. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom came second to a left-green alliance. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party performed below expectations with 44.3%, while Peter Magyar's new party gained 30%. Overall, mainstream pro-European parties solidified their control, with the European People's Party (EPP) and the Socialists maintaining significant influence.
Ban Against Ukraine’s Neo-Nazi Azov Unit Lifted by Biden Admin
The U.S. government has lifted a ban on providing military aid to Ukraine’s 12th Special Forces Brigade, also known as the Azov Brigade, despite past concerns over its alleged links to neo-Nazi elements and human rights violations. The ban, initially imposed by Congress in 2015 and reaffirmed in 2018, was overturned following a vetting process and diplomatic efforts involving U.S. and Ukrainian officials. The Azov Brigade, which has faced accusations documented by the UN of misconduct including looting and torture during conflicts in eastern Ukraine, welcomed the decision as a boost to their combat capabilities and emphasized its importance for defending against external threats. Despite assertions by the U.S. State Department that the current Azov Brigade differs significantly from its controversial predecessor, concerns persist over its use of symbols associated with neo-Nazi ideology and alleged interactions with extremist elements, as highlighted in recent media reports and condemned by Russian officials as evidence of Western tolerance for neo-Nazi sentiments.