END OF JANUARY SITREP SUPPORT
LEAD STORIES
Trump Threatens Insurrection Act Deployment as ICE Shootings Spark Protests in Minnesota
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy the military domestically as protests intensified across Minnesota following two incidents in which federal immigration agents fired their weapons, wounding a man and killing a woman within a week. Demonstrations erupted in Minneapolis amid public anger over aggressive immigration raids, with protesters condemning what they described as excessive force by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). On social media, Trump warned that if Minnesota officials failed to stop what he called “professional agitators and insurrectionists,” he would invoke the 19th-century law, which has not been used in more than three decades. Democratic Governor Tim Walz accused federal agents of carrying out a campaign of brutality, citing multiple violent encounters and urging residents to document ICE interactions, while calling for peaceful protest and an end to what he labeled an occupation. Minnesota officials said the latest shooting followed a struggle during an attempted arrest, with the wounded man identified as a Venezuelan national, and additional suspects detained after allegedly assaulting the agent. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem declined to say whether Trump should invoke the law, calling it his constitutional authority. The unrest has intensified scrutiny of ICE tactics, as reports show a record number of deaths in immigration detention in 2025 and growing concerns over training, oversight, and accountability.
Air Force One Electrical Issue Forces Mid-Atlantic Turnback, Trump Continues Europe Trip on Backup Jet
President Donald Trump’s trip to Europe was briefly disrupted late January 20 when the Air Force One aircraft carrying him to Switzerland experienced a minor electrical issue shortly after departure, prompting a precautionary return to Joint Base Andrews. The Boeing VC-25, operating under the Air Force One callsign, turned back over the Atlantic after lights briefly went out in the press cabin, according to reporters aboard, with the White House citing an “abundance of caution” for the decision. Trump, who had departed Andrews at 9:34 p.m., landed back at the base just after 11:00 p.m. and later resumed his journey aboard a C-32 aircraft, departing shortly after midnight and arriving in Zurich following a seven-hour flight. The delay did not alter his plans to address the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, as global attention focused on his foreign policy agenda. The incident again highlighted the age of the VC-25 fleet, which entered service in 1990 and has been a recurring source of frustration for Trump. Replacement VC-25B aircraft, based on modified Boeing 747-8s, are now expected by mid-2028 after years of delays. In the interim, the Air Force has begun modifying a 747 acquired from Qatar to potentially serve as a temporary presidential aircraft. The diversion also comes amid a broader pattern of recent mechanical issues affecting the Air Force’s executive airlift fleet, including multiple C-32 diversions involving senior cabinet officials.
DOJ Subpoenas Top Minnesota Democrats Amid Immigration Enforcement and Alleged Fraud Probe
The Department of Justice has issued subpoenas to five senior Minnesota Democrats—including Governor Tim Walz, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her, State Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty—to examine their opposition to federal immigration enforcement, according to sources cited by the New York Times. The subpoenas request documents related to local policies on immigration and enforcement actions under the Trump administration’s aggressive ICE operations. The inquiry is reportedly intensified by allegations of officials supporting or enabling protests and harassment against federal officers. Beyond immigration enforcement, critics have raised claims linking Somali-run welfare fraud in Minnesota to senior Democratic leaders, suggesting the diversion of taxpayer funds meant for vulnerable populations and potential complicity by Governor Walz. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has asserted that the fraud represents the largest in U.S. history, with stolen funds reportedly benefiting individuals within Minnesota’s Somali community and political networks. The investigation highlights mounting federal scrutiny of state and local officials’ sanctuary policies and alleged financial misconduct under their watch.
House Panel Moves to Hold Clintons in Contempt Over Epstein Probe
The U.S. House Oversight Committee voted Wednesday to advance resolutions holding former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in contempt of Congress after they refused to testify in its investigation of financier Jeffrey Epstein. Nine Democrats joined Republicans in supporting the measure against Bill Clinton, while three Democrats backed the resolution targeting Hillary Clinton. Committee Chairman James Comer said the votes sent a message that no one is above the law, and House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated he would call for a full House vote next. The Clintons were subpoenaed in August for depositions but declined, citing the subpoenas as legally unenforceable and alleging bias in the probe. In a recent letter to Comer, they claimed they had already shared all relevant information and argued that attention should focus on why authorities failed to investigate and prosecute Epstein’s crimes more thoroughly. Epstein, who died in a Manhattan jail in 2019 in a case ruled a suicide, had associated with numerous high-profile figures, including the Clintons and former President Donald Trump, all of whom have denied involvement in his offenses. Interest in the case reignited last year amid claims of cover-ups, which Trump has dismissed as the “Epstein hoax.”
Israel Retrieves Final Hostage Body, Clearing Way for Phase Two of Gaza Ceasefire
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Monday the recovery of Ran Gvili, the last hostage still held in the Gaza Strip, marking a critical step in implementing a long-negotiated ceasefire facilitated by President Donald Trump’s administration. Gvili, a 24-year-old Israeli police officer killed during Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on the kibbutz of Alumim, had been held in Gaza for over two years. His remains were identified by Israeli forensic experts after a wide-scale operation that examined roughly 250 graves in northern Gaza. The return of Gvili’s body completes the handover of all living hostages and 28 of 28 deceased hostages, fulfilling conditions that had delayed the start of Phase Two of Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan, which focuses on reconstruction and humanitarian aid. Israeli officials, including police chief Daniel Levy and IDF chief Eyal Zamir, informed Gvili’s family of the recovery, while the White House credited Trump for making the operation possible. Following the retrieval, Israel agreed to a limited reopening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt for pedestrians, contingent on full compliance by Hamas with ceasefire obligations. Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem affirmed the group’s commitment to the agreement, including prisoner exchanges, as international and local authorities now move forward with rebuilding efforts in Gaza.
CENTRAL-SOUTH AMERICAN TENSIONS
President Sheinbaum Calms Fears Over U.S. Military Activity Near Mexico
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum sought to allay public concern after recent U.S. military-related movements near Mexico sparked alarm amid heightened regional sensitivities following the U.S. attack on Venezuela. An advisory from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned pilots to exercise caution over parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean near Mexico and Central and South America due to military activities, prompting questions about possible U.S. operations in the area. Mexico waited several hours before receiving written assurances from the U.S. government that no U.S. military flights would occur over Mexican territory, and was provided precise coordinates for U.S. operations outside Mexican airspace. Photos circulating on social media of a U.S. military transport plane on the tarmac at Toluca Airport near Mexico City further fueled speculation. Sheinbaum explained that the plane’s arrival was a routine logistical operation involving Mexican officials flying to the U.S. for training, authorized by Mexico’s Secretary of Defense and not requiring Senate approval, as no troops entered Mexican territory. Her security cabinet noted such training flights take place under established bilateral cooperation protocols. The incidents have underscored Mexican sensitivity to sovereignty issues, particularly amid U.S. proposals and rhetoric about potential military actions against drug cartels, which Mexico has rejected. Both governments reaffirmed ongoing cooperation on security, with officials scheduled to meet to strengthen joint efforts against cartels and curb the flow of fentanyl and weapons across their shared border.
U.S. Seizes Seventh Venezuelan-Linked Tanker in Caribbean Under Trump Blockade
U.S. forces have seized another tanker in the Caribbean, the seventh vessel apprehended since President Donald Trump imposed a blockade to prevent sanctioned ships from traveling to or from Venezuela. The ship, identified as the Motor Vessel Sagitta, was taken “without incident” after operating in defiance of the quarantine established by Trump, according to U.S. Southern Command. The military emphasized that only oil exports coordinated and authorized under U.S. supervision would be allowed to leave Venezuela. This seizure follows a series of operations, including the interception of a Russia-linked tanker earlier this month in the North Atlantic, reflecting Washington’s expanded naval presence in the region. The U.S. has carried out maritime interdictions, targeted drug-trafficking boats, and previously claimed to seize Venezuelan oil as part of its broader campaign to control Caracas’s resources following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro. Venezuelan authorities dispute U.S. claims, maintaining that the state-run oil company remains in control of the country’s exports and is engaged in negotiations with Washington over oil sales. The operation underscores ongoing U.S. efforts to enforce sanctions, project power in the Caribbean, and maintain oversight of Venezuelan energy flows amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Trump Administration Seeks Cuban Government Allies to Negotiate End of Communist Rule by Year‑End
The Biden administration, encouraged by the recent removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, is actively seeking to leverage Cuba’s economic vulnerability to pursue a negotiated end to the island’s long‑standing Communist regime before the end of 2026, according to The Wall Street Journal. U.S. officials believe Cuba’s economy is nearing collapse after losing critical Venezuelan support and are meeting with Cuban exile groups and civic organizations in Miami and Washington to identify potential insiders within Havana’s government who might be willing to negotiate a political transition. While the administration has no detailed blueprint for dismantling Cuba’s one‑party system, officials see the operation that helped capture Maduro as both a model and a warning for Havana and have warned that further pressure could follow without engagement. President Donald Trump has publicly urged Cuban leaders to “make a deal before it’s too late,” announcing a halt to Venezuelan oil and financial support to the island. Intelligence assessments suggest chronic shortages of goods, medicine, fuel, and electricity are contributing to Cuba’s fragility, and U.S. strategy includes targeting remaining oil flows and Cuba’s overseas medical missions, a major hard‑currency source. The State Department has stated that democratic governance in Cuba aligns with U.S. national interests, but Havana has rejected negotiations on Washington’s terms and continues to assert its sovereignty and resistance to external coercion.
Venezuela’s Interim President Delcy Rodríguez Publicly Rejects U.S. Influence After Maduro’s Capture
Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, issued a rare and forceful public rebuttal to Washington’s directives on Monday, declaring that she has had “enough” of U.S. interference in Venezuelan political affairs and urging that internal disputes be resolved domestically rather than under foreign pressure. Rodríguez made the remarks during an address to oil workers in Puerto La Cruz, broadcast on state television, saying “enough already of Washington’s orders regarding politicians in Venezuela” and stressing that Venezuelan politics should navigate internal conflicts without outside influence. Her comments mark a notable moment of defiance after a U.S. military operation on January 3 led to the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro and subsequent assertions by U.S. President Donald Trump that Washington would “run” Venezuela during a transition period, though Caracas has repeatedly rejected such claims. Rodríguez’s rhetoric underscores a growing resistance within the interim leadership to perceived external control even as her government operates amid intense U.S. pressure over oil policy, sanctions, and diplomatic alignment. Observers note that while Rodríguez has publicly pushed back against U.S. influence, Venezuela remains constrained by the evolving political crisis and U.S. strategic interests in the region, with Caracas seeking to assert sovereignty and navigate a complex transition.
China Vows Support for Cuba as U.S. Threats and Sanctions Pressure Intensify
China pledged on Tuesday to provide Cuba with “support and assistance” amid escalating tensions with the United States, reaffirming long-standing ties between the two socialist allies and condemning Washington’s decades-long economic blockade of the island. Beijing’s statement followed sharp warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said Cuba was “ready to fall” and urged Havana to “make a deal” or face consequences similar to Venezuela, where Trump recently removed President Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. bombing raid that killed dozens. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing was deeply concerned by U.S. actions toward Cuba, accusing Washington of undermining regional peace and stability and calling for the immediate lifting of sanctions and the embargo. Guo emphasized that China would continue offering as much assistance as possible to Havana. The remarks come as reports indicate the Trump administration is considering a naval blockade to cut off oil imports to Cuba, framing energy supplies as a critical pressure point against the Cuban government. In response to rising threats, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel oversaw military exercises over the weekend, portraying them as a deterrent against potential U.S. aggression and signaling Havana’s readiness amid mounting geopolitical pressure.
IMMIGRATION CRISIS
ICE Arrests Criminal Aliens Nationwide Amid Ongoing Minnesota Protests
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducted operations across the U.S. from January 16–18, detaining over a dozen illegal immigrants convicted of violent crimes, while anti-ICE protests persisted in Minnesota. According to the Department of Homeland Security, those arrested included individuals convicted of murder, rape, sexual exploitation of minors, assault, burglary, and child pornography in cities including Baltimore, San Francisco, Houston, Los Angeles, New Orleans, Dallas, Philadelphia, Newark, Buffalo, and Atlanta. Notable arrests included Manuel Matta-Reyes, a Guatemalan national convicted of second-degree murder and first-degree rape in North Carolina; Alfredo Rodriguez-Ordonez, a Mexican national convicted of sexual exploitation of a minor in Tennessee; and Walace Pereira-Lima, a Brazilian national convicted of child pornography in Massachusetts. DHS highlighted that ICE officers carried out these arrests despite a reported 1,300% increase in assaults against them. Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin emphasized that law enforcement continues to protect U.S. communities by removing dangerous criminal aliens. The operations coincided with anti-ICE demonstrations, including a high-profile protest at a St. Paul church, where participants disrupted a Sunday worship service; authorities have indicated that those protesters could face federal charges for interfering with religious services. The arrests and ongoing demonstrations underscore the continuing tensions between federal immigration enforcement and public opposition in various states.
ICE Launches “Operation Catch of the Day” in Maine Targeting 1,400 Criminal Aliens
Federal immigration agents have deployed to Maine under a new initiative, “Operation Catch of the Day,” with initial raids resulting in more than 50 arrests, according to Fox News. ICE Deputy Assistant Director Patricia Hyde stated that roughly 1,400 illegal immigrants are targeted, many with criminal records including child rape, drug trafficking, sexual assault, simple assault, and DUI offenses. Early arrests included a Sudanese man with over a dozen convictions and a deportation order, and two Ecuadorian nationals charged with drunk driving, one of whom had entered the U.S. illegally during the Biden administration. The deployment drew criticism from local leaders: Portland Mayor Mark Dion rejected the need for ICE’s presence, citing a lack of evidence of rampant criminal activity, while Maine Governor Janet Mills condemned the tactics and emphasized that state law enforcement operates under professional standards without quotas or masked operations. This follows similar federal actions under the Trump administration in Minnesota, New Orleans, Charlotte, Memphis, and Chicago, where thousands of illegal immigrants have been apprehended in recent weeks, highlighting a nationwide escalation of targeted immigration enforcement operations.
Minneapolis Erupts in Violence After Border Patrol Shooting
A Border Patrol agent‑involved shooting in South Minneapolis on Saturday triggered widespread chaos, with large crowds swarming federal personnel and clashing with agents attempting to secure the scene. The incident began when federal agents shot an armed man near a local donut shop during a targeted operation against an illegal alien wanted for violent assault, who allegedly approached the agents with a 9mm handgun. Crowds of nearly 200 people quickly obstructed law enforcement, surrounding vehicles, blocking roads, and forcing federal officers into defensive positions as unrest escalated. Videos posted on social media show rioters confronting ICE and Border Patrol agents, who deployed tear gas to disperse the crowd. At least one agitator suffered a broken leg and was assisted by agents. DHS officials released a photograph of the handgun allegedly seized from the deceased. Commentary from observers framed the riot as a failure of local leadership, with criticism directed at Mayor Frey and Governor Tim Walz for the escalation. The confrontation highlights ongoing tensions between federal law enforcement and anti-ICE activists in Minneapolis, as well as the volatile environment surrounding immigration enforcement operations in the city.
Public Backlash Drives Support for Unconditional Mass Deportations
The article argues that much of the political left, joined by some centrists and libertarians, has misrepresented public support for Donald Trump’s 2024 immigration platform by claiming voters only endorsed deportations of “violent criminals,” a framing the author describes as deliberate propaganda rather than Trump’s stated position. According to the piece, Trump’s message was always that all illegal migrants are criminals by definition and therefore subject to removal, and attempts to narrow this definition are portrayed as an effort to shift the Overton Window and reframe the debate. The author contends that the core motivation behind majority support for strict immigration enforcement is not crime alone, but opposition to multiculturalism, cultural replacement, and the perceived erosion of Western civilization. Polling cited in a recent CNN segment is said to show roughly 55% to 65% of Americans favor mass deportations without exceptions, a level of support described as consistent with pre-election data from 2024. The article maintains that activist-driven unrest in cities has failed to move public opinion, and that Americans reject arguments based on length of illegal residence or post-entry law-abiding behavior. Economic pressures, welfare costs, wage competition, political redistricting, and fears of cultural transformation are presented as central drivers of public support for deportations.
BOHICA!
Trump Links Push for Greenland to Nobel Peace Prize Snub in Message to Norway’s Prime Minister
U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a shift away from relying solely on diplomatic approaches in his persistent campaign to acquire Greenland, telling Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre that America’s interests must come first after being passed over for the Nobel Peace Prize. In a message released by European officials, Trump wrote that because Norway “decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS,” he no longer felt “an obligation to think purely of Peace,” and instead would focus on what he sees as “good and proper for the United States of America,” while insisting that “the World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland.” Trump questioned Denmark’s ownership of the territory and asserted that it could not defend Greenland from Russia or China, arguing that NATO should act in the United States’ interest. Norway’s prime minister confirmed he received the message, which came in response to a note he and Finland’s president sent urging de‑escalation and opposing proposed tariffs connected to the Greenland dispute. Norway reiterated that Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark and affirmed support for Danish sovereignty. The episode reflects deepening diplomatic tensions with NATO allies over Trump’s aggressive push for control of the Arctic island following his perceived Nobel Peace Prize snub and proposes tariffs and other pressures to advance his objectives.
Chinese Military Pilots Trained in U.S. Civilian Flight Schools, According to Peter Schweizer
Peter Schweizer’s new book, The Invisible Coup, claims the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is exploiting U.S. openness by sending thousands of future military pilots to train in the United States under civilian guise. Schweizer writes that China needs 5,000 pilots annually but can produce only 1,200 domestically, prompting a covert program to educate roughly 3,000 in the U.S. each year. These pilots reportedly enter on student visas with minimal oversight and train at at least sixteen flight schools, including Sierra Academy of Aeronautics in Atwater, California, and AeroGuard near Phoenix, Arizona. Documents cited in the book suggest the schools maintain close ties to Chinese government and military-linked entities, with some programs offering EB-5 residency incentives alongside aviation training. Schweizer highlights local concerns about creating a pipeline of pilots who could eventually confront U.S. forces, noting that courses range from initial flight instruction to advanced helicopter and fixed-wing training. The AeroGuard program, which trains Chinese cadets for the government-controlled Cathay Pacific airline, was reportedly approved with support from Congressman Greg Stanton and the Department of Homeland Security. Schweizer argues the initiative demonstrates Beijing’s ability to manipulate U.S. immigration and education systems while benefiting strategically from American resources and oversight gaps.
Senate Democrats Block DHS Funding, Raising Shutdown Risks After Minneapolis Shooting
Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, have formally refused to advance a six-bill government funding package that includes Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, escalating the risk of a shutdown this Friday. Schumer stated that Democrats will not allow the current DHS funding bill to move forward and called on Republicans to work with Democrats on the other five appropriations bills while DHS funding is rewritten. The opposition intensified after federal agents killed a 37-year-old man in Minneapolis, prompting several senators who previously supported government funding to withdraw their backing unless DHS funds are removed. Senators Brian Schatz, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Jacky Rosen emphasized the need for stronger accountability measures for ICE and Border Patrol before approving any DHS spending, framing their opposition as a response to abuses of power. In the House, the DHS bill passed narrowly 220-207, with only seven Democrats supporting it, and was merged with funding for five other departments before moving to the Senate. More than half of the 47-member Democratic caucus has pledged opposition, a number growing after the Minneapolis incident. Polymarket reports now indicate a 76% likelihood of a government shutdown, underscoring heightened political tensions over immigration enforcement and agency oversight.
U.S. Explores Amnesty for Hamas in Exchange for Disarmament Amid Gaza Peace Plan
The United States is reportedly considering granting amnesty to Hamas militants in return for disarmament as part of a Washington-brokered peace initiative, Reuters reported citing an American official. The announcement follows the Israel Defense Forces’ retrieval of the final hostage, Israeli police officer Ran Gvili, completing Phase One of President Donald Trump’s Gaza plan, which included returning all hostages alive or deceased. The official indicated that disarmament is a key condition of the proposed deal and that failure to comply would breach the agreement. Under the framework signed in late 2025, the plan’s second phase focuses on Gaza’s reconstruction and demilitarization, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasizing that disarming Hamas—not rebuilding the territory—remains the central goal. Hamas stated its militants helped locate Gvili’s body, framing the act as proof of adherence to the ceasefire. During the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack, 251 hostages were taken and approximately 1,200 Israelis killed; Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza has killed nearly 72,000 Palestinians and wounded more than 171,000, according to Gaza health authorities. West Jerusalem has not publicly commented on the potential amnesty proposal. The initiative marks a controversial step in efforts to end the prolonged conflict while ensuring Hamas relinquishes its military capabilities.
FBI Searches Fulton County Election Office Amid 2020 Election Probe
The FBI executed a search warrant at the Fulton County Election Hub and Operation Center in Fairburn, Georgia, on Wednesday as part of a federal investigation into alleged interference in the 2020 presidential election, Reuters and Fox 5 Atlanta reported. Agents reportedly sought custody of 2020 ballots, though officials declined to provide further details. The facility, opened in 2023 to modernize election operations, has come under scrutiny after Fulton County admitted last month that over 130 tabulator tapes for roughly 315,000 early in-person votes were unsigned, and 10 additional tapes were missing. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger emphasized that missing signatures do not invalidate votes, highlighting that voter ID laws were followed and audits completed. Fulton County has also been central to prior investigations into former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 results, including racketeering and federal election-related cases, though some were dismissed due to conflicts of interest or after Trump returned to office. The Justice Department recently sued the county clerk to obtain election documents, citing potential violations of federal election law and the Civil Rights Act. The raid underscores Georgia’s continued prominence in post-2020 election scrutiny, as investigators examine both procedural lapses and allegations that Trump and his associates knowingly promoted false claims of voter fraud to challenge the state’s certified results, particularly in Fulton County, which was key to Biden’s narrow victory.
WAR (and rumors of war)
US MILITARY
U.S. Military Posture Grows Amid Iran Crisis as Protests Subside
The U.S. is reportedly moving at least one aircraft carrier strike group, possibly more, to the Middle East amid tensions over Iran, with open-source tracking indicating additional Air Force and allied European aircraft may also be entering the region. These movements follow President Donald Trump’s call-off of a potential strike after the Iranian regime temporarily halted the mass execution of protestors, though he has not ruled out future military action. Military planners emphasize that a sustained offensive against Iran would require far more forces, munitions, and logistical support than currently deployed, leaving any operation limited and heavily contingent on preparation. The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, with its embarked air wing and missile-capable escort vessels, will enhance U.S. striking and defensive power, while unconfirmed reports suggest the George H.W. Bush Carrier Group may also be en route. Simultaneously, Tehran’s protests, which erupted over economic collapse, drought, and regime crackdowns, appear largely suppressed following harsh security measures, though exiled activist Reza Pahlavi called for renewed demonstrations. European nations, including France and Germany, are reportedly sending aerial assets to the region, and the EU has issued a warning to airlines to avoid Iranian airspace due to heightened risk from missile and air-defense systems. Overall, the situation reflects a complex mix of military posturing, diplomatic caution, and ongoing domestic unrest within Iran, with future escalation remaining uncertain.
US Deploys Abrams Tanks and Bradleys to Middle East Amid Rising Regional Tensions
The U.S. Army has deployed M1 Abrams main battle tanks and M2A3 Bradley Fighting Vehicles from the 3rd Squadron, 278th Armored Cavalry Regiment, Task Force Reaper, into the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, signaling a significant augmentation of heavy armored forces in the Middle East. Photographs show Abrams tanks offloaded from C-17 Globemaster III aircraft on December 22, 2025, followed by Bradleys transported via an airbridge operation coordinated with the 16th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron. The movement demonstrates rapid deployment capabilities, allowing U.S. forces to project combat power without the weeks-long delays of sealift. The Abrams and Bradley together provide combined-arms capability: the Abrams delivers heavy firepower and protection, while the Bradley transports infantry and engages armored and ground threats. The deployment enhances defensive postures, supports ongoing security missions, and deters attacks on U.S. installations, personnel, and supply routes amid regional instability. The 278th Armored Cavalry Regiment, a National Guard unit with overseas operational experience, highlights readiness for rapid global response and joint coordination with airlift assets. While exact numbers of vehicles have not been disclosed, the Army emphasized the deployment’s role in maintaining force protection and readiness against missiles, drones, and indirect fire threats across the Central Command area.
U.S. Rushes Additional Strike Eagles to Middle East as Iran Tensions Drive Major Airpower Buildup
The U.S. military has rapidly reinforced its airpower in the Middle East by deploying an additional squadron of F-15E Strike Eagles amid heightened tensions with Iran and growing uncertainty over possible U.S. military action. Around a dozen F-15Es from the 494th Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath departed on January 18, supported by KC-135 tankers, with U.S. Central Command later confirming their arrival through official imagery. The deployment has been backed by C-17 cargo flights, signaling sustained operational support, while the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is also moving toward the region with a full air wing including F-35Cs, F/A-18 Super Hornets, and EA-18 Growler electronic attack jets. The buildup comes as President Donald Trump publicly leaves open military options against Iran and signals support for regime change following widespread protests that were violently suppressed, reportedly killing thousands. The U.S. had briefly evacuated personnel and aircraft from Al Udeid Air Base amid fears of Iranian retaliation, recalling last year’s missile strike on the base. With this latest deployment, the U.S. now has three F-15E squadrons in the region, alongside F-16s, A-10s, and carrier-based aircraft, bolstering strike, air defense, and electronic warfare capabilities. The Strike Eagles’ recent combat history against Iranian drones, Islamic State targets, and air defenses underscores their central role in deterring escalation and sustaining U.S. readiness in a volatile theater.
U.S. Builds Massive Military Posture in Middle East Amid Potential Iran Strike
The U.S. is significantly bolstering its military presence in the Middle East in response to Iran’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protests, which has reportedly killed thousands, raising the possibility of a U.S. strike. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has moved from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean, accompanied by additional cargo aircraft, aerial refueling tankers, and defensive systems such as Patriot and THAAD batteries, providing the U.S. a broad range of operational options and force protection. President Trump has publicly threatened Iran while also pausing strikes after initial reports of de-escalation, though intelligence assessments warn Iran could respond aggressively across multiple vectors, including attacks on U.S. assets, allies like Israel, and disruption of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global petroleum flows. U.S. fighter aircraft, including F-15Es from RAF Lakenheath, and allied assets, including the UK’s Typhoon squadron in Qatar, have been deployed, while Israel remains on high alert. Iran has warned of retaliation, with IRGC officials emphasizing readiness and showing U.S. base locations in propaganda. Despite Tehran’s claims that the unrest has been quelled, internet shutdowns and restricted communications make independent verification difficult. While no combat has occurred, the region is on edge as U.S. and allied forces prepare contingencies for a potential strike, highlighting the precarious balance in the Persian Gulf.
U.S. Air Forces Central Launch Multi-Day Combat Readiness Exercise Amid Middle East Buildup
The U.S. Air Forces Central (AFCENT) announced a multi-day readiness exercise on January 25, 2026, aimed at demonstrating the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the CENTCOM area of responsibility, coinciding with the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group. The exercise, based on the Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concept, will test rapid personnel and aircraft movement, dispersed operations at contingency locations, minimal-footprint logistics, and multi-national command-and-control coordination, though specific bases and assets were not disclosed. AFCENT emphasized collaboration with host nations and civil-military aviation authorities, suggesting potential multinational participation. While the timing aligns with heightened U.S. force posture near Iran, officials caution against assuming a direct connection to potential strikes, though previous operations such as Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 demonstrated the practical value of dispersed air operations during attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. The exercise will validate rapid set-up, launch, and recovery procedures across multiple contingency locations, likely involving recently deployed F-15Es. U.S. intentions remain uncertain as President Trump continues to weigh options in response to Iran’s treatment of protesters, while regional partners, including the UAE, have stated they will not permit their airspace or waters to support strikes. Israeli media reports suggest Washington and Tel Aviv have coordinated plans for possible fast, high-intensity operations against Iran, which Tehran has vowed to retaliate against if executed.
U.S. Conducts Major Airlift into Middle East as Carrier Strike Group Moves Closer
Between January 18–26, 2026, the U.S. Air Force repositioned at least 42 heavy transport aircraft to the Middle East, including 41 C-17A Globemaster IIIs and one C-5M Super Galaxy, according to open-source flight data. Departing primarily from Ramstein and Spangdahlem Air Bases in Germany and RAF Lakenheath in the U.K., the aircraft landed at key regional hubs including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan, Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, and bases in Bahrain. While the U.S. has not confirmed the cargo, the scale suggests deployment of armored vehicles, air defense systems, munitions, and potentially specialized equipment to reinforce U.S. and allied forces in CENTCOM’s area. In parallel, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has entered the Indian Ocean, positioning closer to the Middle East to provide rapid air, strike, and anti-submarine capabilities if ordered. Al Udeid remains the central hub for U.S. command, logistics, and air operations, while Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti supports forward air deployments. Analysts note the concentrated transport activity mirrors patterns preceding prior major U.S. operations, signaling pre-positioning of air defense systems, precision munitions, and aviation support equipment to increase operational flexibility and reduce response times amid ongoing tensions with Iran.
U.S. Forces Kill ISIS-Linked Terror Leader in Syria Following December Ambush
U.S. Central Command announced that American forces killed Bilal Hasan al-Jasim, an experienced terrorist leader with ties to ISIS and al-Qaida, in a Jan. 16 strike in northwest Syria. Al-Jasim was linked to the Dec. 13 ambush in Palmyra that killed two Iowa National Guardsmen, Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard and Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres Tovar, along with U.S. civilian interpreter Ayad Mansoor Sakat. CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper emphasized that the strike underscores U.S. resolve to pursue those who target American forces. The operation is part of ongoing counterterrorism efforts in Syria, including a December campaign named Operation Hawkeye Strike, conducted with Jordanian forces, which struck over 70 targets with more than 100 precision-guided munitions, employing A-10s, F-15s, Apache helicopters, and M142 rocket systems. Following the ambush, a series of retaliatory operations over nine days resulted in the death or detention of at least 25 ISIS operatives, including seven fighters and the destruction of four weapons caches. CENTCOM reported that U.S. and partner operations over the past six months have led to over 300 insurgent detentions and more than 20 deaths, amid concerns that ISIS-inspired plots in 2025 targeted at least 11 sites in the United States. This strike marks a continuation of Trump-era counterterrorism operations following the overthrow of Syria’s Assad government in December 2024.
U.S. Navy P-8 Conducts Rare Presidential Combat Air Patrol Over College Football Championship
A U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft conducted a rare presidential Combat Air Patrol (CAP) on Monday while President Donald Trump attended the College Football Playoff National Championship in Miami Gardens. The flight provided “incident awareness assessment” (IAA) support to the Secret Service, giving situational awareness and overwatch for high-profile presidential movements. NORTHCOM explained that IAA uses Department of War assets to assist domestic operations, similar to ISR but conducted within the U.S. to support civilian authorities. The P-8, callsign JULIET ECHO 191, launched from Naval Air Station Jacksonville and executed orbits at varying altitudes—from roughly 3,700 feet near the stadium to 18,000 feet over the Atlantic—coinciding with Trump’s arrival and motorcade movements. Equipped with advanced electro-optical sensors, synthetic aperture radar, electronic surveillance suites, and powerful communications systems, the Poseidon can provide detailed imaging, target tracking, and command-and-control capabilities, making it suitable for complex high-profile missions. While traditionally used for anti-submarine and maritime operations, its sensor and loitering capabilities made it effective for the IAA mission, supplementing other DHS and military assets. The operation highlights growing flexibility in deploying P-8s for domestic presidential security missions, particularly amid heightened threat considerations, including past Iranian threats against Trump.
U.S. Expands F-35 Presence in Japan Amid Rising Northeast Asian Threats
The U.S. Air Force is preparing Misawa Air Base in northern Japan for a permanent deployment of 48 F-35A fighters to replace 36 aging F-16CMs, complementing an upgrade at Kadena Air Base where 36 F-15EXs will replace 48 F-15C/Ds. Preparations, which began in December 2025, include personnel and equipment readiness to sustain operations in austere conditions across the Indo-Pacific. Misawa already hosts two Japanese F-35A squadrons and American strategic bombers, making it a critical hub for U.S. and allied operations. The expansion reflects growing concerns over China’s rapidly increasing J-20 and J-35 fighter production, as well as North Korea’s dense ground-based air defenses and expected acquisition of Russian aircraft. While the F-35 remains the only fifth-generation fighter in Western production, its limitations are notable: restricted combat radius, smaller radar and weapons payload, and design prioritization for air-to-ground missions rather than high-intensity air-to-air engagements. Persistent development delays have postponed the Block 4 upgrade—necessary for full operational capability—until the early 2030s, while aircraft availability remains low. Analysts warn that by then, China is expected to deploy sixth-generation fighters, challenging the long-term viability of the F-35 as a peer competitor in the region.
USS John F. Kennedy Begins Sea Trials After Years of Delays
The future USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79), the U.S. Navy’s second Ford-class aircraft carrier, has begun its initial sea trials after departing Newport News, Virginia, marking a major milestone following years of delays. Shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls Industries said the trials will test key ship systems at sea for the first time, reflecting lessons learned from the troubled first-in-class USS Gerald R. Ford. While the extent of Kennedy’s fit-out remains unclear, it will differ notably from Ford, including the installation of the AN/SPY-6(V)3 Enterprise Air Surveillance Radar in place of Ford’s problematic Dual Band Radar, resulting in visible changes to the carrier’s island design. Ordered in 2013 and laid down in 2015, Kennedy was originally expected to be delivered in 2022, but repeated schedule slips—driven largely by issues with Advanced Weapons Elevators, Advanced Arresting Gear certification, workforce challenges, and material availability—have pushed delivery to March 2027, with some estimates extending to mid-2027. Costs have risen accordingly, from roughly $11.3 billion in 2018 to an estimated $13.2 billion by late 2025. Kennedy’s delayed arrival underscores broader concerns about carrier capacity as the Navy looks to retire aging Nimitz-class ships while maintaining legally mandated force levels amid sustained global operational demand.
TRUMP vs THE EUROPEAN UNION
NORAD Says Greenland Aircraft Deployment Is Routine, Not Politically Driven
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said the imminent arrival of its aircraft at Pituffik Space Base in Greenland is part of routine, long-planned defense operations and is unrelated to political rhetoric or any notion of territorial pressure. In a statement released via its official X account, NORAD explained that the aircraft will operate alongside forces based in the continental United States and Canada in support of pre-scheduled missions tied to longstanding defense requirements. The command emphasized that the activity reflects established trilateral defense cooperation among the United States, Canada, and the Kingdom of Denmark. According to NORAD, the deployment was fully coordinated with Danish authorities, conducted with the appropriate diplomatic clearances, and communicated in advance to the Government of Greenland. Pituffik Space Base, the only U.S. military installation on the island, plays a critical role in Arctic security, serving as an early-warning hub for missile threats and supporting air and space surveillance operations. Approximately 150 U.S. service members and allied personnel are stationed there. Originally established during World War II and known as Thule Air Base throughout the Cold War, the facility was transferred to U.S. Space Force control and renamed in 2023. The Pentagon has announced plans to invest up to $25 million in infrastructure upgrades, primarily focused on runway repairs, underscoring the base’s continued importance to NORAD’s mission of aerospace warning, control, and defense for North America.
European NATO Allies Signal Support for Denmark in Greenland Amid Trump Tariff and Acquisition Pressure
European NATO allies have concluded a coordinated military exercise in Greenland as U.S. President Donald Trump renewed demands to acquire the Arctic island and announced new tariffs on multiple allied states, sharply escalating transatlantic tensions. Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom said the Danish-led Arctic Endurance exercise was pre-planned, defensive in nature, and intended to strengthen Arctic security as a shared transatlantic interest, stressing it posed no threat and reaffirming full solidarity with Denmark and the people of Greenland. The deployments followed a Danish request for limited allied troop support to the self-governing territory, whose sovereignty European governments explicitly defended. Trump, however, linked new tariffs—set at 10 percent from February 1 and rising to 25 percent in 2026—to a demand for the “complete and total purchase of Greenland,” despite existing trade agreements with the U.K. and the European Union. He also claimed Russia and China sought control of the island and argued Denmark lacked the capability to defend it, assertions Danish military leaders rejected, stating no current threat exists. European leaders, including U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, criticized the use of tariffs against allies and said Europe would reinforce its presence to demonstrate NATO’s commitment to Greenland’s defense. A bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation separately visited Copenhagen to reaffirm support for Greenland’s current status.
NATO Withholding Intelligence from U.S. Amid Greenland Dispute
NATO officials from European member states have reportedly begun restricting intelligence sharing with the United States because of deepening mistrust over President Donald Trump’s aggressive pursuit of control over Greenland, sources told The i Paper. European intelligence personnel are said to be “not talking openly” with U.S. counterparts out of concern that sensitive information could be relayed to the White House and potentially be used to support Trump’s territorial ambitions, including the possibility of using it in planning actions against the autonomous Danish territory. The move reflects growing tensions within the alliance as Trump doubles down on his bid to acquire Greenland—despite firm opposition from Denmark and other European allies—leading some NATO officials to feel that Washington has “stabbed us in the back” and that longstanding trust has eroded. The dispute has strained historic ties between the U.S. and key allies, including the UK, with some describing the deterioration in intelligence cooperation as unprecedented and at its lowest point since the mid-20th century. Analysts warn that these fractures could impact collective defense cooperation and long-standing partnerships built over decades, especially if political priorities continue to diverge sharply between Washington and other NATO capitals.
Trump Reiterates Push for Greenland Talks at Davos, Rules Out Use of Force
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Donald Trump renewed his controversial call for negotiations over Greenland, stressing that while the United States views the semi-autonomous Danish territory as strategically vital, it would not use military force to acquire it. Trump framed Greenland’s location as essential to U.S., NATO, and Western Hemisphere security, arguing that no other nation or group of nations is capable of adequately securing the island. He characterized U.S. interest as a reasonable request in light of what he described as America’s disproportionate contributions to NATO and collective defense, calling negotiations “immediate” and the issue a “very small ask.” His remarks again drew pushback from European and NATO partners, as Denmark and Greenland have consistently rejected any change in sovereignty while remaining open to an expanded U.S. military presence. The comments came amid broader strains in transatlantic relations and were delivered as part of a wider address covering economic policy, alliance obligations, and global security priorities. Trump also invoked historical precedent, claiming the United States “saved Greenland” during World War II before returning it to Denmark, which he accused of ingratitude. Separately, he issued a blunt warning toward Hamas, saying that if the group does not disarm, it would face destruction.
U.S. and Denmark Set to Renegotiate Greenland Defense Pact Amid Arctic Security Concerns
The United States and Denmark are preparing to renegotiate their longstanding 1951 defense agreement governing U.S. military presence in Greenland, according to a source familiar with discussions between President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The source said the talks include a broader push by European allies to strengthen Arctic security but stressed that proposals to place U.S. bases in Greenland under American sovereignty were not discussed. The existing agreement, last updated in 2004, already allows Washington wide latitude to expand troop deployments on the island, provided Danish and Greenlandic authorities are informed in advance. The U.S. currently operates a single installation in Greenland, the Pituffik Space Base in the island’s northwest, which plays a key role in U.S. missile defense architecture. Trump announced a loosely defined framework following talks with Rutte at the World Economic Forum in Davos, though specifics remain unclear. Rutte later said one outcome of the meeting was a shared commitment to prevent China and Russia from gaining economic or military access to Greenland. Trump’s repeated threats regarding Greenland have unsettled the transatlantic alliance and triggered what some describe as NATO’s most serious internal crisis in decades. In response, several European nations have advocated for a formal NATO mission in the Arctic to reinforce regional security and counter growing geopolitical pressure.
Rutte Says Europe Cannot Defend Itself Without U.S. as Greenland Tensions Expose Alliance Fault Lines
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Europe cannot defend itself without the United States, pushing back against growing calls for the continent to reduce its military dependence on Washington following tensions over Greenland. Speaking to the European Parliament, Rutte dismissed the idea of European strategic autonomy as unrealistic, arguing that without the U.S., Europe would lose the nuclear umbrella that underpins its security. He said EU states would need to double defense spending from NATO’s agreed five percent target to an unfeasible ten percent and invest vast sums in nuclear weapons to compensate. His remarks came after President Donald Trump briefly threatened to seize Greenland, sparking a diplomatic crisis that emboldened voices urging Europe to take a harder line against Washington. France’s foreign minister countered that Europeans can and must assume responsibility for their own security. Rutte insisted U.S. commitment to NATO’s collective defense clause remains firm, while emphasizing that Washington expects Europeans to spend more on their militaries. He again praised Trump for pressuring allies to increase defense budgets and rejected proposals for a European defense force independent of U.S. troops, warning it would benefit Russia. On Greenland, Rutte said NATO would expand its Arctic role but left negotiations over U.S. presence to Denmark and Greenland.
Greenland Signals Red Lines in Talks With U.S. Over Arctic Security
Greenland has made clear it will not compromise on sovereignty or democratic values in negotiations with the United States, its Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said, amid renewed discussions over Arctic security and a potential framework agreement. The island has been at the center of U.S. interest since President Donald Trump in 2019 proposed annexation, citing strategic and mineral considerations, though he recently softened his approach. Nielsen confirmed that a high-level working group including Greenland, Denmark, and the U.S. has begun meeting to explore cooperation, emphasizing that “red lines” must guide any agreement. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen echoed the position, stressing that territorial integrity is non-negotiable, even as the nations seek ways to address shared Arctic security concerns. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that technical talks are underway behind closed doors to avoid a “media circus,” insisting that military force will not be used and framing the process as a professional diplomatic effort. While the details of the framework remain undisclosed, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte indicated NATO will increase Arctic security, potentially including a larger U.S. military presence. Trump also mentioned deployment of the Golden Dome missile defense system in the region, signaling that discussions on defense infrastructure will continue alongside sovereignty and cooperation negotiations.
FORTRESS EUROPE
European States Move to Curb Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” in the Baltic Sea
Fourteen European countries announced coordinated measures on January 26 to restrict access to the Baltic Sea for Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, aiming to disrupt Moscow’s ability to export oil while evading international sanctions. In a joint statement, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom said tankers that disguise their origin by changing flags, disabling transponders, falsifying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, or operating without valid documentation will be treated as stateless vessels, allowing their detention under international maritime law. The measures apply primarily to the Baltic Sea and, in some cases, the North Sea, both critical routes for Russian oil shipments. The countries accused Russia of deliberately interfering with Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals in the region, warning that such disruptions endanger maritime safety, hinder navigation, and complicate rescue operations. They stressed the importance of uninterrupted GNSS and properly functioning AIS, noting that manipulation raises the risk of accidents at sea. The statement emphasized enforcement of international maritime conventions, including SOLAS, MARPOL, and UNCLOS, and warned that violators may be detained by coastal authorities. Western governments describe the shadow fleet as aging, poorly insured tankers tied to environmental risks and broader Russian hybrid activities, including GPS jamming, while noting the measures follow recent U.S. detentions of Russia-linked vessels operating under false flags.
Spanish EF-18M Fighters Intercept Armed Russian Jets Near Baltic NATO Airspace
Spanish Air Force EF-18M fighter jets intercepted Russian combat aircraft flying close to NATO airspace over the Baltic region in late January as part of NATO’s ongoing Baltic Air Policing mission, according to Spain’s Defense Staff. The operation was conducted by F-18M aircraft from Spain’s Wing 15, deployed to Šiauliai Air Base in northern Lithuania under the Vilkas detachment, shortly after Spain assumed a new rotation in the mission. Spanish fighters identified and escorted Russian aircraft operating in international airspace near allied borders before the aircraft turned away and the F-18Ms returned safely to base without incident. Among the intercepted aircraft were Russian Su-30SM multirole fighters, which were reported to be armed with air-to-air missiles and cluster munitions, highlighting the operational and armed nature of Russian flights in the region. Images released by Spain identified one aircraft as Su-30SM “81 Blue,” tail number RF-81885, with markings indicating it belongs to the Russian Navy’s Naval Aviation rather than the air force. The interception followed Spain’s replacement of Eurofighters with ten EF-18Ms at Šiauliai in November, marking Spain’s first consecutive rotations in the mission. Spanish officials cited increased Russian air activity near Poland and the Baltic states as a factor, underscoring the continued importance of NATO’s air policing role in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
Canada Signals Pivot Toward China Amid Strained U.S. Relations
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed a thaw in ties with China during a visit to Beijing, framing renewed engagement as a step toward a “new world order” and announcing a series of trade and strategic agreements. The delegation, including key Cabinet ministers, signed accords on energy cooperation and trade, notably a preliminary deal to import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a 6.1% tariff—down from the 100% rate imposed in 2024 under U.S. pressure—while China agreed to lower retaliatory tariffs on Canadian canola from 85% to 15%. Carney emphasized a five-pillar strategic partnership designed to deepen bilateral ties and strengthen the multilateral system, while Xi Jinping praised the upward trajectory of Beijing-Ottawa relations. Analysts note the shift signals Ottawa’s growing independence from Washington, reflecting tensions with the U.S. under President Trump’s second term, including tariff threats, accusations over fentanyl trade, and suggestions that the U.S. should annex Canada. While experts caution that China remains a difficult partner with potential for rule violations, the agreements mark a significant recalibration of Canada’s foreign policy, positioning the country as more willing to pursue bilateral interests with Beijing even amid U.S.-China rivalry.
Canada Develops Theoretical Response Model to Hypothetical U.S. Invasion Amid Trump Annexation Comments
Canada’s military has reportedly developed a conceptual response model for a potential U.S. invasion, emphasizing insurgency-style tactics, according to The Globe and Mail. The framework, described by unnamed officials as theoretical rather than operational, draws on lessons from Afghanistan, focusing on ambushes and hit-and-run actions to slow U.S. forces that could otherwise overrun Canadian positions on land and at sea within days. The planning comes amid renewed attention to President Donald Trump’s past remarks about merging Canada with the U.S. and recent social media posts implying U.S. control over Canada and Venezuela. Officials noted that clear warning signs of an invasion would likely include a cessation of NORAD cooperation, and Canada could seek assistance from allies such as Britain and France. The military stressed the model is not a step-by-step operational plan but a conceptual framework for national defense under extreme circumstances. The discussion coincides with the World Economic Forum in Davos, where both Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are attending. Trump’s Greenland-related territorial demands have already strained NATO, and Canada is reportedly considering sending a small contingent of troops to Greenland alongside other allies to signal support, highlighting growing concerns about U.S. assertions in the Arctic.
Canada Retreats on Davos Remarks Amid Trump Tariff Threat
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney dialed back comments made earlier this month at the World Economic Forum in Davos during a phone call with US President Donald Trump, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Speaking on Fox News, Bessent said that while Trump’s threat to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian exports would be “a disaster for Canada,” the conversation indicated a shift in Carney’s tone. Bessent noted that Carney had been “very aggressively walking back some of the unfortunate remarks he made at Davos” and emphasized that Canada is closely linked to the United States economically. He added that Carney “should do what’s best for the Canadian people, rather than trying to push his own globalist agenda.” Following Trump’s warning, Carney stated that Canada has “no intention” of pursuing a free trade deal with China, signaling a clear alignment with US trade interests and a retreat from his prior public statements in Switzerland. The exchange reflects ongoing tensions over trade policy and the influence of US pressure on Canadian economic decisions, highlighting the broader geopolitical impact of Trump’s tariff threats on allied nations.
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
Iran Blames U.S. as Trump Pushes for Regime Change Amid Protests
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the United States of causing Iran’s internal crises through “inhumane” sanctions and warned that any attack on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would constitute “all-out war” against the nation. His remarks come amid nearly three weeks of widespread unrest, during which over 16,000 protesters have reportedly been killed in violent crackdowns, mass arrests, and nationwide internet blackouts. Pezeshkian’s statement reflects Tehran’s efforts to consolidate domestic support around Khamenei while deflecting blame onto Washington, despite long-standing accusations of Iranian plots against U.S. leaders. Supreme Leader Khamenei also condemned President Trump for inciting protests, declaring him “guilty” of mass casualties. In response, Trump has called for “new leadership” in Iran, highlighting the regime’s decades-long economic mismanagement, political repression, and currency collapse. The U.S. has reinforced its posture both militarily and economically: the Pentagon redeployed the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East to ensure rapid response capability amid growing instability, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced broad sanctions targeting senior Iranian officials and financial networks. Analysts note that while Tehran attributes the unrest to foreign interference, the protests are widely linked to domestic grievances and regime failures, further intensifying U.S.-Iran tensions.
Tehran Under Heavy Security After Deadly Crackdown on Protests
Tehran is effectively under “virtual martial law” following a brutal crackdown on nationwide protests last week, with residents reporting a heavy security presence and pervasive surveillance, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Armed forces, Basij paramilitary units, and plainclothes police patrol city streets, conducting random vehicle stops, searching phones, and monitoring social media and photo galleries to identify protesters. Many residents remain indoors under a self-imposed curfew after threats from motorcycle-riding Basij operatives, who reportedly warn civilians to stay off the streets. Universities and a majority of shops remain closed, and public gatherings are quickly dispersed. The Iranian government has reportedly reinforced its security forces with mercenaries from Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, believed to act more violently than local police. Observers describe the situation as highly controlled, with civilians effectively “hostages in their own country” under constant monitoring. Human rights activists estimate that at least 5,000 people were killed during the suppression, with thousands more arrested, many facing possible execution. Residents report widespread fear and uncertainty, unsure what will happen even on their own streets, while the regime continues to enforce strict surveillance and movement restrictions. The crackdown underscores the Iranian government’s readiness to use extreme force to suppress dissent and maintain control over the population.
Iran Reports 3,117 Dead Amid Protests as U.S. Military Posture Intensifies
Iran’s government has released its first official death toll from nationwide protests that began on December 28, reporting 3,117 killed, including 2,427 civilians and security personnel. The figure is far lower than estimates from the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which cites at least 4,902 fatalities and warns the number could rise further. Access to independent verification is limited due to an ongoing internet blackout, restricted international communications, and state-controlled reporting labeling protesters as “rioters” allegedly influenced by foreign powers. Nearly 26,500 individuals have been detained, raising fears that some could face execution, given Iran’s history as a leading global executioner. In response to U.S. military movements, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a stark warning that Tehran would “fire back with everything we have” if attacked, referencing both short- and medium-range missile capabilities and the potential for a protracted regional conflict. His comments coincided with the rerouting of a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, now heading from the Indian Ocean toward the Persian Gulf, and the deployment of F-15E Strike Eagles and HIMARS missile systems. Araghchi stressed that any confrontation would be prolonged and severe, signaling heightened risk of escalation as U.S.-Iran tensions intensify amid the country’s largest protests in decades, reminiscent of the unrest surrounding the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Trump Threatens Total Retaliation Against Iran Amid Escalating Rhetoric and Military Buildup
President Donald Trump warned that the Iranian regime would be “wiped off the face of the Earth” if he were harmed, responding to renewed threats and taunts from Tehran amid rising regional tensions. In a televised interview, Trump said he had already left standing instructions for overwhelming retaliation should any assassination attempt occur, framing the warning as a direct deterrent to Iran’s leadership. The remarks revive earlier threats he made during and after the 2024 campaign, when U.S. intelligence briefed his team on alleged Iranian plots tied to revenge for the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Trump contrasted his posture with that of former President Joe Biden, arguing that his own approach had previously forced Tehran to back down. The comments come as Iran continues a violent crackdown on domestic protests, with disputed death tolls ranging from several thousand to as high as 18,000, according to U.S. officials and human rights groups. Iranian military officials responded with threats of their own, warning of severe consequences if action were taken against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, the United States has increased its military footprint in the region, deploying additional fighter aircraft, moving a carrier strike group toward the Persian Gulf, and preparing to reinforce air defenses, underscoring the risk of rapid escalation.
Trump Signals Diplomatic and Military Pressure as Iran Faces “Weakest Moment Since 1979”
U.S. President Donald Trump described Iran’s leadership as experiencing its most fragile period since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, citing new intelligence reports of widespread unrest and eroding control in key regime strongholds. In an Axios interview, Trump confirmed he has ordered a “great armada” to deploy near Iran, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, F-15 and F-35 fighters, aerial refueling aircraft, and additional air defense systems, significantly bolstering U.S. deterrence and strike capabilities. While emphasizing that diplomacy remains open, Trump stressed that negotiations are conditional on Iran accepting strict requirements, including dismantling enriched uranium stockpiles, limiting missile programs, ending regional proxy support, and halting uranium enrichment. Recent intelligence indicates Iranian officials have sought contact with the White House, but Tehran has thus far rejected these terms. Inside the administration, debates continue between hardliners advocating immediate enforcement of U.S. “red lines” and advisers favoring leveraging Iran’s current vulnerability for a diplomatic settlement. Military officials note the carrier strike group could launch operations within one to two days if ordered. Trump also referenced last year’s brief Israel-U.S.-backed strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, highlighting ongoing uncertainty over remaining uranium stockpiles. U.S. forces remain at high alert, prepared to act rapidly while monitoring Tehran’s responses and internal instability.
Iran Massacre: Reports Suggest Up to 36,500 Killed in Two-Day Crackdown
New investigations reveal that a brutal two-day crackdown on nationwide protests in Iran may have killed as many as 36,500 people, making it one of the deadliest short-term mass killings in modern history. Following a directive from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on January 8–9 to suppress dissent “by any means necessary,” security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, reportedly deployed live ammunition against demonstrators across more than 400 cities. Hospitals were overwhelmed, with eyewitness accounts describing wounded protesters executed mid-treatment, patients forced into body bags while alive, and morgues overflowing, as medical staff faced psychological trauma. Investigations by Iran International, TIME, the New York Times, The Guardian, and Israel Hayom documented indiscriminate shootings, rooftop sniper fire, and mass executions in emergency rooms and forensic centers, with some victims bearing signs of recent hospitalization. Internal IRGC and Health Ministry tallies escalated rapidly from 12,000 to over 36,500, far exceeding the government’s official figure of 3,117, which blamed foreign “terrorist cells.” Evidence suggests authorities deliberately concealed corpses, conducted quiet burials, and restricted communications to suppress reporting. Experts note historical parallels only with events like Babyn Yar. Amid escalating U.S. sanctions and the deployment of military assets to the region, the crisis underscores Tehran’s internal instability and the regime’s willingness to use unrestricted lethal force to maintain control.
U.S. Weighs Precision Strikes on Iranian Officials as Military Tensions Mount
The United States is reportedly considering precision strikes against Iranian officials and military commanders believed responsible for deaths during recent nationwide protests, potentially as soon as this week, according to Middle East Eye citing an unnamed Gulf official. The planning discussions within the Trump administration have been described as chaotic, with debate centering on fears of Iranian retaliation if such strikes proceed. Iran was rocked earlier this month by violent unrest in which at least 3,000 people were killed, including both security forces and protesters, according to official figures provided in the report; Tehran has blamed the United States and Israel for instigating the unrest, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that the “Iranian nation [has] defeated the US” after calm was restored. The U.S. military buildup in the region—including the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Middle East—has enhanced Washington’s capacity to defend its forces or conduct military operations against Tehran, reflecting escalating tension following the protests and the harsh crackdown. President Donald Trump has characterized the situation as “in flux” and acknowledged that a large naval presence is headed toward Iran, while Iran has publicly warned that any U.S. attack would be treated as an act of full‑scale war.
Hezbollah Warns War on Iran Would Ignite Region as Israeli Strikes Continue in Lebanon
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem warned Monday that any attack on Iran would be treated as an attack on Hezbollah itself, cautioning that a new war against Tehran would ignite the entire region. Speaking in a televised address at a pro-Iran rally, Qassem said Hezbollah and Iran face a shared aggression that does not distinguish between them, adding that while the group would decide its response based on circumstances, it would not remain neutral. His remarks followed statements by U.S. President Donald Trump that a U.S. “armada” was heading toward the Gulf and that Washington was closely monitoring Iran after a violent crackdown on protesters, with military action still an option. Qassem said Hezbollah had recently been asked via mediators to pledge it would not intervene if the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran, a request he did not endorse. He also warned that any attempt to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would represent an “assassination of stability” and be considered a direct threat to Hezbollah. The speech came amid continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon despite a November 2024 ceasefire. Lebanese authorities reported three deaths in strikes near Tyre and Nabatiyeh, including a cleric Hezbollah says was assassinated, while Israel said those killed were Hezbollah operatives, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire.
Trump Warns Iran to Negotiate Nuclear Deal or Face “Far Worse” U.S. Attack
President Donald Trump warned Iran on Wednesday to urgently negotiate a nuclear weapons deal, threatening that a future U.S. military strike would be “far worse” if Tehran refuses, while Iran responded that it would retaliate more fiercely than ever if attacked. In a social media post, Trump urged Iran to “Come to the Table” and agree to a deal ensuring “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” stressing that time is running out and recalling that his previous warning was followed by a U.S. military strike in June. He reiterated that a U.S. naval “armada,” led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, is moving toward Iran, a deployment U.S. officials confirmed has already arrived in the Middle East. Iran’s mission to the United Nations pushed back, citing the costs of past U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and stating that while Iran is open to dialogue based on mutual respect, it will defend itself and “respond like never before” if pressured. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he has not been in contact with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff or requested talks. The escalation comes amid heightened tensions following a recent crackdown on protests in Iran, which Trump previously said could trigger U.S. intervention, and his warning that Washington would act if Tehran resumes its nuclear program after June strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Iran Warns of Immediate Retaliation as U.S. Threats Escalate, While Leaving Door Open to Nuclear Deal
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Iranian forces would respond immediately and forcefully to any U.S. military operation after President Donald Trump said time was running out to avoid conflict, while simultaneously signaling openness to a new nuclear agreement. Araghchi said Iran’s “fingers are on the trigger” to counter any U.S. strike, but reiterated Tehran’s position that it is willing to negotiate a “mutually beneficial, fair and equitable” nuclear deal that guarantees Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology and excludes nuclear weapons, which he said Iran has never sought. His comments followed Trump’s claim that a “massive armada” of U.S. naval vessels was moving toward Iran and ready to act if necessary. More hardline rhetoric came from Ali Shamkani, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who warned that any U.S. military action would be treated as the start of war and would prompt an all-out response, including strikes on Tel Aviv. The standoff unfolds amid widespread unrest in Iran, with a rights group reporting over 6,200 deaths and tens of thousands arrested during protests, while European powers move toward labeling Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization and regional actors push for de-escalation.
Iraq Says U.S.-Led Coalition Has Completed Base Withdrawal from Federal Territory
Iraq announced that U.S.-led coalition forces have completed their withdrawal from all military bases and command headquarters within the country’s federal territory, marking a major milestone in the phased end of the coalition’s mission. A military committee overseeing the drawdown said the evacuated sites have been transferred to full Iraqi security control, with Baghdad now moving toward a framework of bilateral security relations with the United States. The withdrawal follows a 2024 agreement between Iraq and Washington that set the coalition’s exit from federal Iraq by the end of 2025, with remaining forces in the autonomous Kurdistan region to depart by September 2026. Coalition troops have been stationed in Iraq since 2014 to combat the Islamic State group, which was territorially defeated in Iraq in 2017 but continues to operate sleeper cells, particularly in remote mountainous areas. Iraqi authorities said only advisers had remained in recent phases and asserted that national forces are now fully capable of preventing an IS resurgence or cross-border infiltration. Coordination with the coalition will continue regarding efforts to eliminate IS elements in Syria, including logistical support via an airbase in Erbil and operational coordination through Ain al-Assad base in western Anbar province. While attacks in Iraq have sharply declined, international assessments warn IS is attempting to rebuild networks along the Syrian border, underscoring the continued security challenge despite the coalition’s drawdown.
Syrian Government Attacks SDF Positions Despite US-Backed Ceasefire, Raising ISIS Prison Security Concerns
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported renewed attacks by Damascus on its positions across northern Syria, including areas surrounding SDF-run prisons holding tens of thousands of ISIS detainees, just a day after a US-brokered ceasefire. The SDF said its fighters repelled multiple assaults, suffering dozens of casualties, and warned that Syrian efforts to free prisoners pose an “extremely dangerous” security threat. Government forces seized Aleppo’s Tishreen Dam, Raqqa, Tabqa, and the country’s largest oil fields, while the northeastern city of Hasakah remains under Kurdish control. The escalation follows disputes over the March 2025 integration deal, under which Damascus demands SDF personnel enter Syrian security and military structures individually rather than as Kurdish-commanded units, while the SDF seeks to preserve a degree of autonomy and operate as a bloc. SDF and YPG leaders appealed to the United States and coalition partners for stronger intervention, emphasizing Washington’s reduced military footprint, which has seen five of eight major bases vacated. The ceasefire agreement calls for handovers of key governorates, border crossings, and energy assets to Damascus, but clashes continue amid lingering tensions, the partial US withdrawal, and reports of ISIS members escaping detention and approaching the Iraqi border, raising the risk of renewed insurgent activity in the region.
U.S. Begins Transfer of Islamic State Detainees from Syria to Iraq to Prevent Prison Breaks
The United States has launched an operation that could eventually move up to 7,000 detainees accused of affiliation with the Islamic State group from detention facilities in northeast Syria to neighboring Iraq, according to the U.S. military. The operation began with the transfer of 150 alleged fighters and is intended to ensure the detainees remain in secure facilities amid shifting control arrangements in Syria. U.S. Central Command said the effort is being closely coordinated with regional partners, including the Iraqi government, and described the transfers as critical to preventing a mass breakout that could pose a direct threat to U.S. and regional security. The move follows a recent agreement between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Syrian Democratic Forces leader Mazloum Abdi, reached as part of a broader ceasefire and political integration deal, under which Damascus is set to assume responsibility for prisoners accused of belonging to Islamic State. Currently, thousands of such detainees are held across seven prisons in northeast Syria, while tens of thousands of their suspected family members remain in the Al-Hol and Roj displacement camps. The operation also reflects a broader shift in U.S. policy, as Washington has signaled that its partnership with the SDF has largely concluded and is now backing Syria’s new Islamist-led authorities as they work to consolidate control after years of conflict.
200 ISIS Fighters Escape Al-Shaddadi Prison Amid SDF Withdrawal in Syria
Approximately 200 low-level Islamic State fighters escaped from the al-Shaddadi prison camp on Monday after the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) withdrew, a U.S. official told Reuters. The number exceeds Damascus’ estimate of 120 but is far below the SDF’s worst-case scenario of 1,500. Prior to the breakout, around 600 foreign ISIS detainees had already been transferred to other facilities. Syrian authorities reported that many escapees were quickly recaptured, a claim echoed by the U.S. source. Both sides offer conflicting accounts: Damascus accuses the SDF of irresponsibly abandoning the camp and deliberately releasing prisoners to pressure the government, while the SDF claims pro-government militias freed inmates intentionally. Syria’s Defense Ministry announced it would take full control of all former SDF-administered ISIS camps, including al-Hol, where families of fighters are housed, and pledged to avoid Kurdish villages to prevent tensions. Defense Minister Maj. Gen. Murhaf Abu Qasra also urged the SDF to release civilian detainees in Hasakah Province, citing the arrests as a threat to the recent ceasefire. The SDF, weakened after defections by Arab tribes and targeted by central government forces, faces pressure to integrate fully with Damascus under the four-day framework established by the ceasefire agreement, amid ongoing fears of Kurdish-Arab tensions in the region.
Syrian Government Expands Control as Kurdish Forces Withdraw from Key Oil Fields
Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) withdrew from Syria’s largest oil field, Al-Omar, and other areas in eastern Deir Ezzor on Sunday, as government troops expanded control across northern and eastern regions. The pullback follows clashes in Aleppo, where government forces captured neighborhoods and an area east of the city, as well as Tabqa in Raqqa province. The retreat included the Safyan and Al-Tharwa oil fields previously under Kurdish control, marking the government’s consolidation in predominantly Arab areas once held by the SDF during the anti-ISIS campaign. Tensions escalated after a withdrawal deal east of the Euphrates collapsed, with both sides claiming the other violated the agreement and reporting casualties. The Kurdish administration imposed a curfew in Raqqa province after the government declared a southwest Euphrates stretch a “closed military zone.” Despite President Ahmed al-Sharaa granting the Kurds formal recognition in a symbolic gesture, SDF officials said it fell short, with implementation of Kurdish integration into state structures stalled for months. The developments reflect Damascus’ ongoing efforts to assert authority over resource-rich and strategically significant regions while the Kurds continue to navigate autonomy, governance, and integration amid ongoing friction with government forces.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Russian Strikes Leave Kyiv Without Heat and Water as Winter Bombardment Intensifies
A large-scale overnight Russian bombardment crippled Kyiv’s energy and utility systems, leaving thousands of residential buildings without heating and water as temperatures plunged to around minus 14 degrees Celsius, compounding damage from earlier attacks. Ukrainian officials said hundreds of drones and missiles targeted energy infrastructure across at least seven regions, killing at least one civilian near the capital and forcing residents to shelter in metro stations as air defenses engaged incoming threats. Kyiv authorities reported that more than 5,600 residential buildings—roughly half of the city’s apartment blocks—lost heating, with widespread water outages and blackouts affecting nearly half the capital. Many of the affected buildings had already been damaged in a major January 9 strike, the most severe attack on Kyiv’s energy grid in years. Schools remain closed until February and street lighting has been reduced to conserve power. Additional strikes damaged critical infrastructure in western Rivne, left 10,000 households without electricity, hit energy facilities and a residential building in Odesa, and sparked a fire at an industrial site in Poltava. Ukrainian leaders accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure to break morale, urging allies to urgently strengthen air defenses. Russia denied targeting civilians, saying strikes supported military objectives. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for senior Russian officials over energy-grid attacks, which it says amount to war crimes designed to harm civilians.
Russia Expands Recruitment Tactics to Replenish Forces in Ukraine
Russia is increasingly relying on creative and coercive methods to maintain troop levels in its nearly four-year war with Ukraine, offering substantial incentives to attract volunteers while targeting both domestic and foreign populations. President Vladimir Putin reports roughly 700,000 Russian soldiers are deployed in Ukraine, though independent casualty estimates suggest over one million may have been killed or wounded since 2022. To avoid a broad mobilization, Moscow has leaned on so-called voluntary enlistment, with last year’s contracts reportedly topping 400,000, though rights groups say conscripts are often pressured into signing open-ended service agreements. The government sweetens contracts with high salaries, bonuses, tax breaks, and debt relief; in Khanty-Mansi, enlistees can earn up to $50,000—more than twice the regional annual wage. Recruitment extends to prisoners, suspects in pretrial detention, and foreign nationals, including men from South Asia, the Middle East, and Cuba, who are lured with promises of jobs or citizenship and sometimes forced into combat. Activists highlight the particular vulnerability of foreign recruits due to language barriers and lack of experience. Ukrainian authorities report over 18,000 foreigners fighting for Russia, with 3,400 killed and hundreds held as POWs. Observers note that Russia’s expansive recruitment efforts are increasingly costly amid a slowing economy, reflecting the Kremlin’s challenges in sustaining its war of attrition.
Power Outage Strikes Russia’s Northern Fleet Base Amid Winter Storms
Severomorsk, the home of Russia’s Northern Fleet and the country’s key naval command for ballistic missile submarines and nuclear arsenals, was forced to rely on emergency generators after aging power lines collapsed during severe winter weather. The outage, which affected both Severomorsk and nearby Murmansk, left some residents without electricity and heating as of Sunday. Local authorities reported that five pylons failed about 7 km from Murmansk on January 23, including two nearly 60 years old and others dating from 1966 to 1988. To manage the crisis, the Northern Fleet ships docked in Severomorsk switched to autonomous power, according to city officials, freeing electricity for essential needs. Severomorsk, a “closed town” with strict entry controls due to its military and nuclear significance, faced additional logistical challenges in restoring power. Governor Andrei Chibis confirmed the outages and the continued strain on infrastructure, highlighting the vulnerability of critical Russian defense facilities to aging equipment and extreme weather conditions. The incident underscores potential risks to operational readiness at one of Russia’s most strategically important naval hubs.
Ukraine Says Long-Range Drone Strikes Crippled Russian Airfields, Causing Over $1 Billion in Losses
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) says its Alpha special operations unit carried out a yearlong campaign of long-range drone strikes in 2025 that hit five Russian military airfields deep inside Russia, destroying or disabling 15 aircraft and inflicting estimated losses exceeding $1 billion. In a recent statement, the SBU said the airfields were selected because they hosted aircraft used in missile and guided-bomb attacks on Ukrainian cities, and it released video footage it says shows aircraft damaged on the ground. According to Ukrainian claims, the strikes knocked out 11 fixed-wing combat aircraft, including Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-27, Su-24, and MiG-31 jets, as well as three helicopters — Mi-28, Mi-26, and Mi-8 models — and one An-26 transport aircraft, all described as destroyed or rendered permanently inoperable. The SBU said the operations also hit ammunition storage sites and fuel depots at the targeted bases, amplifying the damage and reducing Russia’s ability to sustain air operations from those locations. Ukrainian officials linked the airfield attacks to a broader 2025 drone campaign that also targeted Russian air defense systems, radar infrastructure, and energy facilities, including a January strike on the Tamannaftegaz oil terminal in Krasnodar Territory. Russia has not publicly confirmed the reported aircraft losses, and independent verification remains limited due to wartime reporting restrictions.
INDO-PACIFIC
Reports Allege Failed Military Plot Against Xi as China Purges Top PLA Leadership
Unconfirmed reports claim senior Chinese military officials planned to arrest President Xi Jinping on the night of January 18, but the alleged move failed after Xi was warned in advance and took countermeasures. The reports identify Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, chief of the PLA’s general staff, as the purported organizers. According to the accounts, Xi departed a government hotel before an advance team arrived, and his personal security detail later opened fire when the group reached the site. Chinese state media has confirmed the senior status of both men but has not addressed the alleged plot. Shortly afterward, China’s defense ministry announced that Zhang and Liu are under investigation for “serious discipline violations and violations of the law,” language often associated with corruption probes or political purges. An editorial in the PLA Daily accused the generals of undermining the “chairman responsibility system,” which places the military firmly under party control. Some analysts argue Xi may have viewed Zhang as a potential internal rival given his influence within the armed forces, while others caution against claims of an attempted coup, pointing instead to entrenched factional struggles. The investigation has effectively hollowed out the top military leadership, underscoring Xi’s focus on preventing challenges to party control as he is widely expected to seek a fourth term in 2027.
Chinese Troops Deployed in Beijing After Senior Military Leaders Placed Under Investigation
China has deployed troops and military convoys into central Beijing following the Communist Party of China’s announcement of criminal investigations into two of the country’s most senior military officials, heightening speculation about internal instability. State media reported that General Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and a Politburo member, and General Liu Zhenli, CMC member and chief of the Joint Staff Department, are under investigation for “serious violations of discipline and the law,” with party authorities labeling them “untrustworthy individuals.” Online videos and images showed armed military convoys moving through the capital, a rare and sensitive development given China’s strict controls on troop movements outside assigned regions. Zhang, long viewed as the second-most powerful military figure after President Xi Jinping, is alleged—without official confirmation—to have committed acts amounting to treason, including claims of leaking nuclear-related secrets to the United States. Unverified reports circulating online have gone further, alleging a foiled coup attempt or assassination plot against Xi, though no evidence has been publicly provided. Beijing has simultaneously experienced a visibly heightened security posture, while social media speculation points to possible wider purges within the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army. With Xi expected to seek a fourth term in 2027, the investigations inject new uncertainty into China’s normally tightly managed leadership and military succession process.
Taiwan Details $40 Billion Defense Buy Focused on Precision Strike, Drones, and Asymmetric Warfare
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has unveiled the weapons planned under a proposed 1.25 trillion New Taiwan dollar ($40 billion) special defense budget covering 2026 to 2033, aimed at strengthening deterrence against a potential Chinese invasion while expanding domestic defense production. Announced by President Lai Ching-te in late 2025, the package spans seven capability areas, including precision artillery, long-range strike, uncrewed systems, missile defenses, AI-enabled platforms, sustainment and wartime production, and Taiwan–U.S. co-developed weapons. Roughly 300 billion New Taiwan dollars would fund domestically developed systems, with most remaining funds allocated to overseas procurement, largely from the United States, some already approved under an $11 billion arms sale. Key items include 60 M109A7 self-propelled howitzers and thousands of precision rounds, 82 HIMARS launchers with rockets and tactical missiles, more than 2,000 Altius-series drones, approximately 200,000 smaller UAVs for surveillance and attack, and over 1,000 uncrewed surface vessels. The plan also covers Javelin and TOW anti-armor missiles, counter-drone systems, and AI-driven command and intelligence tools. Significant funding is set aside to expand local production of ammunition, explosives, armored vehicles, and protective equipment, alongside urgent purchases of tank and autocannon munitions to bolster near-term readiness.
U.S. Expands Direct Role in Taiwan Missile Planning Through Joint Firepower Center
The United States has gained unprecedented authority to coordinate the Republic of China (ROC) Armed Forces’ ballistic and cruise missile operations through the establishment of a Joint Firepower Coordination Centre in Taipei, where U.S. military personnel are now permanently embedded to oversee planning and potential use of Taiwan’s missile arsenal. The center enables U.S. forces to share intelligence via the Joint Digital Firepower System and jointly select targets and finalize strike plans with ROC counterparts, marking a significant deepening of military integration. Its creation coincides with large-scale U.S. arms transfers, including hundreds of ATACMS ballistic missiles and HIMARS launchers, and a visibly expanded U.S. military presence during exercises such as Han Kuang 41. Analysts argue this arrangement allows Washington to plan strikes on strategically critical targets on the Chinese mainland by proxy, potentially mirroring the U.S. advisory and targeting role seen in Ukraine, while retaining plausible deniability. The center, housed at Taipei’s Dazhi Military Camp, reportedly saw heightened activity during recent PLA exercises and is rumored to feature a countdown clock to 2027, a year widely cited as a potential window for conflict. While the missile buildup strengthens deterrence, uncertainties remain regarding effectiveness against China’s advanced air defenses and electronic warfare capabilities.
Beijing Rejects U.S. Containment Efforts While Signaling Openness to Dialogue
China said on Thursday that attempts to contain it are “doomed to fail,” responding to the U.S. Defense Department’s announcement that curbing China would be its top priority in 2026 even as Washington seeks respectful ties. Defense Ministry spokesman Jiang Bin said the United States’ approach has already been proven ineffective but added that Beijing remains willing to work with Washington to promote bilateral relations, ahead of an expected April visit by President Donald Trump to China for talks with President Xi Jinping. Jiang’s remarks followed the release of the U.S. 2026 National Defense Strategy, which states that Washington aims to “deter China in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation,” marking a softer tone toward China and Russia compared to previous strategies. Under former President Joe Biden, China was described as Washington’s most consequential challenge, whereas the new document calls for “respectful relations” and notably omits any mention of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. At the same time, the strategy reiterates U.S. plans to strengthen a “denial defense” along the First Island Chain, including Japan and Taiwan. Jiang criticized Washington for what he called contradictory behavior on China’s core interests and vowed Beijing would resolutely safeguard them. He also pointed to recent U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, after which China conducted live-fire military drills around the island in December.
North Korea Launches Ballistic Missiles as Regional Tensions Rise After U.S.–South Korea Engagement
North Korea fired at least two ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan on Tuesday, according to Japanese and South Korean authorities, marking its second missile test this month and underscoring heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Japan’s defense ministry said the missiles landed outside its exclusive economic zone, while South Korea reported detecting multiple launches toward the East Sea. The test followed a high-level visit to Seoul by U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby, who praised South Korea as a “model ally,” and came amid deepening U.S.–South Korea security cooperation, including the continued stationing of 28,500 U.S. troops as a deterrent against Pyongyang. Analysts assess that North Korea’s expanding missile campaign is aimed at improving precision-strike capabilities, challenging Washington and Seoul, and testing weapons potentially destined for export to Russia, where Pyongyang has reportedly sent troops to support Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The launch also occurs ahead of a rare ruling party congress, the first in five years, after Kim Jong Un ordered expanded and modernized missile production. Experts suggest the timing is intended to raise external tensions to reinforce internal discipline and regime unity, while also signaling opposition to recent U.S.–South Korea military engagement and ongoing joint exercises Pyongyang denounces as invasion rehearsals.
GEOPOLITICS
Trump Proposes $1 Billion “Board of Peace” to Oversee Gaza Reconstruction
President Donald Trump has unveiled plans for an international Board of Peace, a new intergovernmental body aimed at managing the next phase of Gaza’s rebuilding, requiring $1 billion in contributions from individual nations to secure permanent membership. According to reports, the fee guarantees a permanent seat, in contrast to three-year appointments that carry no financial obligation. The Board is intended to fund reconstruction efforts while positioning Trump at the center of global diplomacy and potentially challenging the U.N. Security Council’s authority. Invitations have reportedly gone to numerous countries, including Canada, Turkey, Egypt, Australia, Jordan, Greece, Cyprus, Pakistan, Paraguay, Argentina, and Albania, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accepting the offer. The proposed executive board features prominent figures such as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan, World Bank President Ajay Banga, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Deputy National Security Advisor Robert Gabriel. While details of the charter remain undisclosed, Trump frames the initiative as a “bold new approach to resolving global conflict,” with funding focused on Gaza reconstruction and broader geopolitical influence, highlighting his ambitions to create a high-profile international forum outside traditional U.N. mechanisms.
Trump Launches “Board of Peace” Aimed at Gaza and Global Crises at Davos Signing Ceremony
President Donald Trump formally announced the creation of his “Board of Peace” at the World Economic Forum in Davos, a new international body with a $1 billion price tag for permanent membership, initially framed to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction but potentially extending to other global crises. Trump will serve as chair alongside a founding executive council including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Tony Blair, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, Robert Gabriel, World Bank President Ajay Banga, and Apollo CEO Marc Rowan. Invitations have gone to 50–60 countries, with around 25 agreeing to join, including Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Morocco, Argentina, Hungary, Bahrain, and Belarus. Several nations, including the UK, France, Norway, Sweden, and Slovenia, have declined, citing concerns over the board’s composition, particularly the inclusion of leaders like Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu. The board’s charter omits Gaza entirely, and there is no Palestinian representation, raising skepticism among Gazans who feel the initiative treats them as a problem rather than stakeholders. Trump and Rubio touted the board as a “board of action” capable of achieving what the UN cannot, while Russian media reported Putin may contribute $1 billion, including possibly via frozen assets. Critics warn the initiative risks undermining the UN and positioning Trump in an unprecedented global leadership role.
Putin Floats $1 Billion Gaza Reconstruction Pledge from Frozen U.S. Assets, Stops Short of Joining Trump Peace Council
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is prepared to allocate $1 billion from Russian assets frozen in the United States to support a proposed international mechanism for post-war governance and reconstruction in Gaza, while emphasizing that Russia has not yet decided whether it will formally join the U.S.-backed initiative. Speaking on January 21 during a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, Putin confirmed receiving a personal invitation from President Donald Trump to participate in a newly proposed “Peace Council,” but said Russia would respond only after reviewing documents and consulting strategic partners. Despite that uncertainty, Putin said funding could be committed immediately, citing Russia’s historic ties with the Palestinian people and framing the initiative as humanitarian in nature. He stressed that any mechanism must pursue a long-term settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict based on existing United Nations decisions, with Gaza’s humanitarian crisis at its core. His remarks contrasted with Trump’s earlier statement at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Putin had already accepted the invitation. The White House said at least 35 countries have agreed to join the body, which has expanded from a Gaza-focused effort into a broader platform addressing multiple global conflicts. Putin also suggested remaining frozen Russian assets could eventually be used for reconstruction in Ukraine following a peace agreement, adding that discussions on both Gaza and Ukraine would continue with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and visiting U.S. envoys.
Ukraine-Russia Talks in Abu Dhabi End Without Agreement Amid Ongoing Strikes
The second day of U.S.-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia concluded in Abu Dhabi without a formal agreement, though officials left the door open for further dialogue. Discussions focused on potential parameters for ending the nearly four-year war, with both sides agreeing to report back to their capitals and coordinate next steps with national leadership. President Volodymyr Zelensky described the meetings as productive in establishing communication channels, emphasizing that the process of negotiation would continue. A Ukrainian delegation official confirmed that additional sessions could take place as soon as next week, marking one of the few instances of direct, face-to-face engagement between the two sides since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The talks were overshadowed by a Russian airstrike campaign targeting Kyiv and Kharkiv, which cut power to over a million Ukrainians amid freezing January weather. The bombardment prompted strong condemnation from Ukraine, with Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of acting “cynically” by striking civilian infrastructure during a negotiation process. Despite the absence of a breakthrough, the meetings signal continued international mediation efforts and maintain a channel for dialogue. Observers noted that while progress was limited, the talks establish a framework for further negotiation and provide a rare opportunity to discuss potential ceasefire or settlement parameters.
Xi Reaffirms Support for UN-Centered World Order Amid Western Outreach and U.S. Policy Shifts
Chinese President Xi Jinping said Tuesday that China remains committed to upholding an international system centered on the United Nations, as he met Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo in Beijing, a message widely seen as a response to recent U.S. initiatives that could sideline the UN. Xi’s remarks follow President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new “Board of Peace,” which has raised concerns among some governments that Washington may be seeking to create a parallel global governance structure. According to Chinese state media, Xi told Orpo that Beijing is willing to work with Finland to defend the UN-based world order, even as China has not confirmed whether it will participate in Trump’s proposed grouping. Orpo said he welcomed discussions on international issues and bilateral cooperation during his four-day visit, which comes amid a broader wave of Western diplomatic engagement with Beijing as U.S. policy uncertainty prompts allies to diversify their partnerships. Recent visitors have included leaders from Canada and France, with the British prime minister also scheduled to arrive. Despite improved diplomatic tone, significant differences remain, particularly over Russia’s war in Ukraine and growing strategic competition in the Arctic. Finnish officials have accused China of indirectly supporting Russia’s war effort, while NATO leaders have warned of rising Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic region.