End of March Sitrep Support

U.S. Allies Resist Trump’s Push for Support in Iran War and Hormuz Operations 

President Donald Trump is facing resistance from U.S. allies as he calls on them to help secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war with Iran, despite spending much of his first year back in office criticizing and pressuring those same partners. Trump has demanded that NATO members and other allies contribute to reopening the critical oil transit route, warning the alliance could be at risk if they fail to act, while also insisting the U.S. does not need their help. Analysts say the request is undermined by months of strained relations, including tariffs, public criticism, disputes over defense spending, and controversial rhetoric such as threats toward Greenland. Foreign governments are reportedly skeptical about joining a conflict they were not consulted on and are balancing economic pressures, ongoing commitments like Ukraine, and domestic constraints. Experts note that unlike past U.S. efforts to build coalitions, such as before the Iraq War, no broad alliance has been assembled for the current conflict. European and Asian partners appear hesitant to commit forces to a high-risk mission in the Strait, particularly given escalating tensions and unclear timelines. The situation highlights the limits of U.S. leverage when diplomatic relationships are weakened, with some analysts suggesting allies may resist in order to avoid reinforcing a pattern of coercive pressure in future negotiations.

Cuba’s Nationwide Anti-Communist Protests Escalate Amid Energy Crisis 

Protests across Cuba reached a dramatic peak over the weekend, as demonstrators set fire to the Communist Party headquarters in Morón, Ciego de Ávila, amid ten consecutive nights of nationwide anti-communist unrest. The protests stem from worsening poverty, shortages of food and medicine, and near-total blackouts after Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro was arrested on January 3, cutting off nearly free fuel supplies. Crowds of locals, including teenagers, looted and burned party offices while shouting “freedom!” and “down with communism!” Reports indicate hundreds of participants, with several arrests, injuries, and at least one shooting. Protesters have also used garbage bonfires and street mobs to express dissent, while in Havana, residents staged cacerolazos, banging pots and pans in protest. Some displayed pro-Trump slogans, reflecting the Communist Party’s recent confirmation of secret talks with the U.S. administration. Cuban state security forces, including the feared “black berets,” attempted to suppress demonstrations, reportedly using brutal tactics. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel issued a statement acknowledging citizens’ frustrations over blackouts but condemned violence and vandalism, threatening sanctions against participants, while avoiding the overtly violent rhetoric used in prior uprisings. Despite this, unrest continues across Morón, Havana, Holguín, and Santiago de Cuba, signaling growing challenges to the 67-year-old communist regime amid worsening living conditions and heightened public anger. 

Trump Signals Imminent Action as Cuba Faces Worsening Blackouts Amid U.S. Sanctions 

U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled imminent measures against Cuba as the island grapples with its latest nationwide blackout, worsened by Trump’s recent sanctions on Venezuela that cut off vital oil exports. Trump described Cuba as being “in very bad shape” and suggested the administration seeks a leadership change, potentially pushing President Miguel Díaz-Canel aside, though details of an alternative leadership plan remain unclear. The power outages have severely impacted daily life, spoiling food and straining hospitals, with only partial electricity restoration reported in Pinar del Rio, Holguin, and about 5% of Havana residents. Rubio criticized Cuba’s economy and political system, saying it “doesn’t work” and requires dramatic reform. The administration has demanded political and economic liberalization, including the release of political prisoners, in exchange for lifting sanctions, and Trump raised the possibility of a “friendly takeover.” Despite producing 40% of its petroleum domestically, Cuba’s aging electrical grid cannot meet demand, compounding hardships for citizens. Residents report struggles to preserve food and manage daily life amid ongoing blackouts, with some contemplating leaving the island. Experts note the endgame of U.S. moves is uncertain, while sanctions and economic pressure continue to exacerbate the country’s systemic crises.

Cuban President Díaz‑Canel Rejects Trump Threats, Vows “Unbreakable” Resistance 

Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel sharply rebuked U.S. President Donald Trump after Trump suggested on social media that he could do “whatever he wants” with Cuba and hinted at imminent action against the island’s government, including potential leadership change. Díaz‑Canel wrote that the U.S. administration “publicly threatens” Cuba’s government almost daily with overthrow, asserting that any act of aggression “will clash with an impregnable resistance,” framing Cuba as sovereign and capable of resisting foreign intervention. His remarks come amid deepening tensions as the Trump administration has tightened sanctions, effectively halted Venezuelan oil exports to the island, and intensified pressure on Cuba’s socialist model, which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has criticized as unable to fix the country’s economic crisis. Trump and U.S. officials have also been pushing for Díaz‑Canel to leave power as talks between Washington and Havana continue, though specifics of any post‑leadership plan have not been disclosed. The Cuban government blames long‑standing U.S. sanctions and recent energy blockades for worsening blackouts and economic hardship, conditions that critics say are being exploited to foment domestic unrest. Ordinary Cubans express concern and uncertainty over the political standoff, with some questioning U.S. intentions and others worried about soaring prices and deteriorating living conditions. International reactions include Costa Rica’s decision to close its Cuban embassy, a move Havana attributed to U.S. pressure. 

Cuba Begins Releasing Political Prisoners in Vatican-Backed Deal 

Cuba has released at least 20 political prisoners since announcing earlier this month that 51 detainees would be freed under a deal mediated by the Vatican, according to rights group Cubalex. The released individuals were jailed for participating in widespread anti-government protests on July 11 and 12, 2021, which drew international attention to human rights conditions on the island. The Cuban government announced the planned release on March 12 as a “goodwill” gesture toward the Vatican, which has historically acted as a mediator between Havana and Washington. The move comes amid rising tensions between Cuba and the United States, with President Miguel Diaz-Canel confirming ongoing talks with Washington. Despite the announcement, Cubalex criticized the process for lacking transparency, noting that authorities have not published a list of the prisoners being freed or clarified the charges for which they were convicted. The releases represent a partial, cautious step by the Cuban government to address international pressure while maintaining control over the process, and they highlight the Vatican’s continuing role in facilitating dialogue on political and human rights issues in the country. The remaining 31 prisoners are expected to be released in the coming weeks, though details and timelines remain unclear.

Venezuela Oil Production Rebounds to 1.1 Million BPD Amid U.S. Oversight and Investment 

Venezuela’s crude output rose to an average of 1.1 million barrels per day in March, up from 942,000 bpd in February, reflecting a recovery following selective U.S. sanctions relief and Washington’s effective control of the country’s oil sector after President Nicolás Maduro was removed. The turnaround comes despite decades of decline from 1990s highs of roughly 3 million bpd due to mismanagement and sanctions. A new Venezuelan hydrocarbons law caps royalty rates at 30% while allowing project-specific adjustments to attract investment, granting private companies full operational management at their own expense but keeping state ownership of resources. This legal framework has spurred expectations of up to $1.4 billion in new investment in 2026. Major energy companies are re-engaging: Chevron is reportedly negotiating expansion of its Petropiar joint venture with PDVSA, while Shell is pursuing development of light and medium crude fields in eastern Venezuela’s Monagas North area and exploring onshore and offshore natural gas projects. The combination of legal reforms, renewed foreign participation, and eased sanctions has enabled the initial production rebound, though full restoration of Venezuela’s historical output will require sustained investment and operational recovery.  

ICE Targets Criminal Illegal Aliens in Nationwide Arrests, Prioritizing Public Safety 

ICE continued targeting criminal illegal aliens this week, arresting individuals with convictions for serious offenses including murder, sexual abuse of minors, rape, and violent robbery. Among those taken into custody were Sergio Colin-Aviles of Mexico, previously convicted of homicide or manslaughter in Crosby County, Texas; Jose Gregorio Torres of Venezuela, convicted of coercion and enticement of a minor in Michigan; and Marvin Renaldo Caal-Tec of Guatemala, convicted of attempted rape in New York. Additional arrests included Manuel Punin-Suculanda of Ecuador for sexual abuse in White Plains, New York, and Yetzel Ramirez-Zavala of Mexico for burglary with assault in Florida. DHS spokeswoman Lauren Bis emphasized that under President Trump’s administration, illegal aliens who commit crimes will be located and arrested, underscoring ICE’s mission to prioritize the protection of American families, children, and lives. The recent enforcement wave demonstrates the administration’s continued focus on removing dangerous individuals from the country while reinforcing public safety as a central goal of immigration policy. These operations highlight ICE’s commitment to enforcing immigration law against criminal elements, sending a clear signal that illegal entry coupled with criminal behavior will not be tolerated, and that priority will be given to securing communities from individuals who pose serious threats.

Australia Sees Record Migration Despite Government Promises 

Australia has experienced an unprecedented surge in migration over the past year, contradicting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s pledges to reduce arrivals. Analysis from the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) shows net permanent and long-term arrivals reached 57,270 in January alone, marking a record monthly high, and totaling 494,540 over the 12 months to January—the highest in Australian history. The influx is primarily driven by temporary migrants and international students returning after the post-pandemic reopening of borders, with India and China accounting for the largest increases since 2014. Net permanent and long-term arrivals include individuals intending to stay in Australia for at least 12 months. Critics argue that this surge exacerbates existing housing shortages and the cost-of-living crisis, while the government has failed to enact meaningful reforms to the migration system. IPA senior fellow Dr. Kevin You emphasized that official claims of declining net overseas arrivals are misleading, as the total migrant population continues to grow at record rates. Albanese had asserted a 40 percent drop in net migration over the past year during Question Time, but available data contradict this, revealing that migration levels remain historically high and rising. The trend highlights the ongoing tension between government promises and the realities of Australia’s post-pandemic migration policies, as the country absorbs a record number of new residents. 

ICE Agents Deployed to U.S. Airports Amid TSA Pay Crisis 

President Donald Trump and his border czar Tom Homan have deployed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers to U.S. airports to assist TSA personnel working without pay due to a partial government shutdown that began February 14. ICE officers were reported at major hubs including Atlanta, Newark, New Orleans, JFK, and Houston, aiming to relieve TSA agents by monitoring airport exits and freeing them to handle screening. Trump praised the deployment as providing unprecedented security, while Homan emphasized that ICE would not operate X-ray machines but would focus on specialized security tasks to reduce lines. The move comes as more than 400 TSA agents have quit or called out sick, leading to crippling multi-hour waits and widespread passenger frustration. Congressional Democrats have blocked DHS funding amid calls for reforms after January incidents in which immigration agents killed two U.S. citizens. Lawmakers and union leaders have sharply criticized the deployment, highlighting ICE’s lack of aviation security training and past civil rights violations. Lisa Murkowski and Hakeem Jeffries warned the plan could exacerbate tensions and endanger travelers, while the American Federation of Government Employees and flight attendant unions condemned the replacement of TSA personnel with armed ICE officers. The administration continues to finalize deployment details, with Homan stating that plans will target the largest airports first, prioritizing safety amid ongoing staffing shortages.  

U.S. Burning Through Tomahawk Missile Stockpiles Faster Than Production Amid Iran War 

The United States is expending Tomahawk cruise missiles at a pace that exceeds current production capacity during ongoing operations against Iran, raising concerns about stockpile depletion and long-term readiness. In the opening phase of Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. Navy reportedly launched around 400 Tomahawk missiles within the first 72 hours—approximately 10% of its ready-to-fire inventory—targeting Iranian radar systems, command centers, missile facilities, and naval assets. The scale of usage has surpassed total production over the past five years, highlighting a mismatch between consumption and manufacturing rates. Each Tomahawk missile, a cornerstone of U.S. precision strike capability since the Cold War, can hit targets over 900 nautical miles away using advanced guidance systems, but takes 18 to 24 months to produce due to its complexity and reliance on over 100 subcontractors. Current production stands at roughly 90 missiles annually, meaning it could take more than four years to replenish missiles used in just the first days of the conflict. Although plans aim to increase production to over 1,000 annually, the ramp-up will take time. Meanwhile, allied forces face similar strain, with France reviewing its MICA missile stockpiles after heavy use defending the UAE, underscoring broader concerns about Western munitions sustainability in a prolonged conflict. 

Hormuz Blockade Sparks Historic Energy Disruption 

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint paralyzed by Iranian mines, drones, and missile threats, producing what analysts call the worst disruption to global oil flows in history. Tanker throughput has collapsed to roughly 400,000 barrels per day—down from a pre-crisis 14 million—sending Asian crude prices toward $150 per barrel and triggering rising U.S. diesel costs above $5 per gallon. President Trump has sought to reopen the strait through U.S. naval escorts, but the plan faces severe obstacles: Western partners, including Germany, Spain, and Italy, have refused to commit warships, while international shipping authorities warn that escorts cannot guarantee tanker safety given the proximity of Iranian launchers just 3–4 miles from the transit lanes. The International Maritime Organization emphasizes the humanitarian and logistical risks, noting crews of stranded vessels face shortages of food and supplies. Analysts warn that as barrels vanish from global markets, the disruption may trigger demand destruction in the coming weeks, primarily affecting Asia first, with cascading effects for U.S. energy prices. Experts caution that without rapid resolution, the Hormuz blockade could evolve from an energy shock into a broader financial and economic crisis, highlighting the strategic vulnerability of the world’s energy supply concentrated through this narrow 21-mile corridor. 

Pentagon Seeks $200 Billion in Supplemental Funding to Sustain Iran War Amid Congressional Pushback 

The Pentagon is requesting over $200 billion from Congress to support ongoing U.S. military operations in Iran, aiming to replenish weapons depleted during recent U.S.-Israeli strikes, according to reports. The proposal would far exceed current war expenditures, which topped $11 billion in the first week alone, and could total more than half of Iran’s 2025 GDP of $356.5 billion. The request comes as Congress faces growing skepticism: Democrats have criticized the funding as a “war of choice,” with Senator Chris Van Hollen calling it an “absolute nonstarter,” while others, including Senators Chris Murphy and Dick Durbin, have highlighted soaring domestic costs and questioned priorities. Republicans have indicated support but have not detailed a strategy to secure the 60 votes needed in the Senate. Internationally, Iranian officials condemned the proposed funding, warning of escalating costs for ordinary Americans, while Russia urged de-escalation, with President Vladimir Putin emphasizing diplomacy in talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The supplemental package reflects urgent U.S. concerns over a munitions shortfall, including depleted Tomahawk missiles, as the conflict continues to strain both military resources and political support at home. Debate over the request is expected to intensify in the coming weeks.

U.S. National Debt Surpasses $39 Trillion Amid Iran War, Sparking Fiscal Alarm 

The U.S. national debt has reached a record $39 trillion, just weeks into the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran, underscoring mounting fiscal pressures amid simultaneous priorities such as tax reforms, defense spending, and immigration enforcement. The milestone highlights the strain on the economy, with the Government Accountability Office warning of higher borrowing costs for mortgages and vehicles, reduced business investment, lower wages, and more expensive goods and services. Analysts and fiscal advocates emphasize the long-term consequences, noting that unchecked borrowing will force difficult tradeoffs for future generations. Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, called the pace of debt growth “alarming” and “unsustainable,” projecting the debt could hit $40 trillion before this year’s elections. The debt surge has been fueled by wars, pandemic-related spending, and tax cuts, with rapid increases over the past several months: $37 trillion two months ago, $38 trillion five months ago. White House officials note that fiscal measures under Trump, including rising individual tax revenue, federal workforce reductions to the lowest levels since 1966, and anti-fraud efforts, have slightly reduced the federal deficit to $1.78 trillion in FY2025. Still, economic advisers estimate the Iran war alone has cost over $12 billion so far, with no clear end in sight, intensifying concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability and debt management.

Israel Claims Killing of Iranian Officials Amid Ongoing U.S.-Israeli Strikes 

Israel has claimed to have killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Basij paramilitary militia, though Iran has neither confirmed nor denied the reports. Defense Minister Israel Katz announced Larijani’s death on Tuesday, emphasizing ongoing strikes against Iranian leadership and strategic infrastructure. Larijani, last publicly seen at Tehran’s Al-Quds Day rally, has been a longtime political figure, including serving as speaker of parliament and leading Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the West. In a recent statement, he appealed to Muslim-majority nations to support Iran’s fight against the U.S. and Israel, framing Iran’s regional attacks as defensive and emphasizing Islamic unity. Israel also claimed Soleimani, who has led the Basij for six years, was eliminated in a targeted airstrike in central Tehran; the militia is known for enforcing internal security and suppressing dissent, including the 2009 and 2024 anti-government protests. Analysts stress that while these strikes may be symbolically and psychologically significant, the Iranian regime is unlikely to collapse, as new leaders regularly emerge. U.S.-Israeli operations have reportedly targeted cities beyond Tehran, including Ahvaz, Isfahan, and Shiraz, reflecting a broad campaign against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure in the ongoing conflict. 

Iranian Missile Fragments Strike Jerusalem’s Holy Sites Amid Escalating Conflict 

Fragments from an Iranian missile barrage fell across key areas of Jerusalem on Monday, striking the Temple Mount, the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, and near the Western Wall plaza, despite some intercepts over the city. Israeli police reported debris from intercepted missiles scattered through the Old City, including parts of East Jerusalem and central districts, with one person lightly injured after touching a hot fragment. Authorities quickly cordoned off affected zones, deployed sappers, and closed holy sites to protect civilians, given the Old City’s limited bomb shelters. The closures extend to schools, workplaces, and gatherings of over 50, reflecting heightened safety measures amid ongoing attacks. Last week, Israel faced condemnation from eight Muslim-majority countries—Qatar, Jordan, UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt—for restricting worship at the Temple Mount (Al-Aqsa Mosque/Al-Haram Al-Sharif), which they labeled discriminatory and a violation of international law. The Jerusalem District emphasized adherence to Home Front Command guidelines for public safety. The incident underscores the intensifying Iranian missile campaign against Israeli territory, threatening sites of global religious significance and compelling extensive civilian precautions. Jerusalem’s Old City, a spiritual center for Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, remains under heightened alert as the conflict continues, disrupting religious practices, daily life, and tourism. 

Iran Deploys Sejjil “Dancing Missile” in Expanded Strikes on Israel and U.S. Bases 

Iran escalated its missile campaign by launching a new wave of strikes targeting Israeli and U.S. positions, marking the first reported operational use of the Sejjil ballistic missile since the war began on February 28. The launch, described by Iranian officials as the 54th wave of Operation True Promise 4, included multiple missile systems such as the Khorramshahr, Kheibar Shekan, Qadr, and Emad, targeting Israeli military and administrative sites as well as U.S. bases in the Gulf, including Al-Harir Air Base, Ali Al-Salem Air Base, and Camp Arifjan in Kuwait. In Israel, missile impacts damaged property in Tel Aviv, including a residence tied to a U.S. consular official, and caused several injuries. The Sejjil missile drew particular attention due to its solid-fuel design, which enables faster launch times and reduces pre-launch vulnerability compared to older liquid-fuel systems. With a range of roughly 2,000 kilometers and a payload capacity of about 700 kilograms, the two-stage missile is also designed to maneuver during flight, complicating interception by air defense systems—hence its nickname, the “dancing missile.” Its use signals a potential shift in Iran’s tactics toward more advanced and survivable delivery systems, increasing the complexity of missile defense and raising the stakes in the ongoing regional conflict. 

Turkey Intercepts Third Iranian Missile as NATO Strengthens Regional Defenses 

NATO air defenses shot down a third Iranian ballistic missile targeting Turkey, the Turkish Defense Ministry confirmed Friday, following previous interceptions on March 4 and March 9. While the target of the latest missile remains undisclosed, an explosion near Incirlik Air Base in Adana province rattled windows, though no casualties or debris were reported. U.S. personnel and NATO allies stationed at Incirlik have not participated in strikes against Iran, according to Ankara. Turkey has consistently protested the attacks, stressing it does not wish to be drawn into the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. Iranian officials reiterated that the missiles were not intended for Turkey and proposed forming a joint investigation team after a presidential phone call. Turkish sources warned Tehran that accountability must be established and that Ankara reserves the right to respond or impose punitive measures if necessary. Turkey, lacking fully autonomous air-defense capabilities, relies heavily on NATO’s integrated systems, including the Kurecik radar base and recently reinforced ballistic missile defenses, as well as a deployed U.S. Patriot system. The Russian S-400 system acquired in 2019 was not used, with NATO intercepts proving faster and more effective. NATO officials affirmed vigilance and the alliance’s commitment to defending all member states. 

U.S. Allows Iranian Oil Tankers Through Strait of Hormuz in Hopes of Stabilizing Global Supply 

The United States is permitting Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the ongoing U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, aiming to prevent a severe global supply shock as commercial shipping remains largely suspended. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Iranian vessels have continued exporting crude to maintain global market flow, even as tanker traffic plummets due to missile, drone, and maritime threats. Over the weekend, the Aframax tanker Karachi, carrying Abu Dhabi crude, became the first non-Iranian vessel observed crossing the strait while broadcasting AIS signals, suggesting limited informal or negotiated safe passage coordinated with Iranian authorities. Analysts note the tanker’s route between Larak and Qeshm islands may indicate an emerging Iranian verification system for transiting ships. While President Trump has called on allied nations to escort commercial vessels, no multinational operation has yet begun; some ships, including Indian LPG carriers, rendezvoused with regional navies after clearing the strait. The disruption has triggered historic energy market shocks, with Brent crude rising about 40% to $102 per barrel. Bessent indicated tanker movements may gradually recover and predicted oil prices could fall below $80 per barrel once hostilities end, though no timeline for the conflict’s resolution is clear. The strait remains a volatile chokepoint amid ongoing attacks, limited traffic, and emerging geopolitical control dynamics. 

Iran Sets Conditional Access Rules for Strait of Hormuz Transit 

Iran has formally informed the United Nations that “non-hostile vessels” may continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but only if they coordinate directly with Iranian authorities and comply with Tehran’s security requirements. The statement, submitted to the UN Security Council, marks Iran’s clearest articulation yet that passage through the strategic chokepoint is conditional and tied to Iranian oversight. Tehran defines non-hostile ships as those not linked to the United States or Israel and not supporting acts of aggression against Iran, effectively excluding Western-aligned vessels. While Iran claims the strait “remains open,” it ties full maritime security to the cessation of military aggression and the respect of Iran’s “legitimate rights and interests.” Commercial traffic has already slowed, with ships rerouting closer to Iran’s coast or avoiding the strait entirely. Enforcement is increasingly active: AIS data shows vessels reversing course after failing to obtain Iranian permission, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has confirmed such interventions. Reports also indicate that some vessels have been asked to pay ad hoc transit fees up to $2 million per voyage, suggesting an emerging toll system. Collectively, these measures signal a shift from open navigation to a controlled, conditional, and monetized regime, positioning Iran as the de facto regulator of one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors amid escalating regional conflict. 

Iran Threatens Red Sea Shipping as U.S. Weighs Ground Invasion 

Iran warned it could expand the conflict by targeting Red Sea shipping if the United States launches a ground invasion, signaling a potential escalation that would threaten critical global trade routes. An Iranian military official said Tehran could open new fronts, specifically highlighting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a strategic chokepoint it has the capability to disrupt. The strait, like the Strait of Hormuz, is vital for global oil and goods transit, and any disruption would compound existing supply shocks. Iran’s ties to Yemen’s Houthi rebels—who previously attacked vessels in the Red Sea—raise the possibility that the group could re-enter the conflict more actively, despite having operated with some ‎Independence ‎from Tehran. Meanwhile, the United States is deploying additional airborne troops and marines to the ‎Gulf ‎amid speculation of a limited ground operation aimed at securing key ‎oil ‎infrastructure or maritime routes, including Iran’s Kharg Island, a major export hub. Ongoing fighting has already reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to minimal levels, impacting roughly 20 percent of global oil flows. This disruption has driven crude prices to around $100 per barrel, reflecting what the International Energy Agency described as an unprecedented supply shock in global energy markets. 

Saudi Arabia Doubles Red Sea Oil Exports Amid Hormuz Blockade 

Saudi Arabia has successfully ramped up oil exports from its Red Sea ports, doubling shipments from Yanbu in just over two weeks, as Iran’s temporary blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Gulf transit. The kingdom diverted crude from Persian Gulf facilities via the 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline, which links the Abqaiq processing hub to Yanbu, allowing exports to continue despite southern route constraints. Yanbu terminals averaged 4.4 million barrels per day in the five days to Tuesday, and Riyadh aims to boost shipments to 5 million barrels per day, approaching the East-West pipeline’s net export capacity after accounting for 2 million barrels needed to supply domestic refineries, power plants, and desalination facilities. While these diversions offset roughly half of the lost Gulf shipments, Saudi Arabia still faces a shortfall of about 2 million barrels per day compared to pre-war levels. About 56 million barrels remain held on tankers stuck in the Gulf, while at least 40 VLCCs are anchored near Yanbu awaiting loading. Most exported crude is now heading to Asia, primarily China and India, with smaller volumes to South Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand; Japanese demand is met via storage tanks in Okinawa. Early flows also utilized the Sumed pipeline to reach the Mediterranean, ensuring continuity for European customers and circumventing the Suez Canal, demonstrating Riyadh’s contingency planning and resilience under Middle East supply disruptions. 

Overnight Strikes in Iran and Gulf Hit Oil Markets

Reports overnight indicate significant strikes in Tehran, Israel, and Dubai, including an Iranian drone attack on Kuwaiti tanker Al-Salmi at the port of Dubai, which caught fire before being extinguished. The incidents coincide with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserting that a coalition will secure the Strait of Hormuz by force, while Iran’s ambassador to Russia dismissed claims of peace talks, saying Washington and Tel Aviv are planning further strikes. President Donald Trump maintained that the US achieved regime change in Iran with the February 28 decapitation strike on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, describing Iran’s new leadership as “very reasonable” and hinting at potential negotiations. Trump criticized European nations, including the UK and France, for failing to support the campaign, warning that Washington would limit their access to oil. Economic fallout is mounting: a UN Development Program study projects Arab GDP losses of $120–194 billion, 3.6 million jobs at risk, and up to 4 million people pushed into poverty if the conflict continues. Oil markets reacted with nearly a 1% drop, while Moscow reiterated its refusal to supply oil and gas to unfriendly nations and offered mediation. China and Russia are pursuing diplomatic engagement, with meetings scheduled between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Iranian officials. Meanwhile, inflation in the Euro area rose to 2.5%, and US gas prices surged to $4 per gallon, the highest since 2022, reflecting global energy instability. 

Netanyahu Says Iran War Over Half Complete as U.S. Signals Shorter Timeline 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war against Iran has surpassed the halfway point in terms of operational objectives, though not necessarily in duration, declining to provide a timeline for its conclusion. Speaking to Newsmax, Netanyahu stated that Israel and the United States have already achieved significant goals, including the killing of thousands of Iranian Revolutionary Guards members and major degradation of Iran’s military, missile, and nuclear capabilities. He added that the campaign is close to dismantling Iran’s arms industry and broader industrial base tied to defense production. The conflict, launched jointly with U.S. President Donald Trump on February 28, was initially projected to last four to six weeks, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated it would extend for several weeks rather than months amid growing domestic opposition and rising oil prices. Netanyahu also expressed confidence that Iran’s government could collapse internally, though he emphasized that regime change is not an explicit objective, framing current efforts as focused on weakening Iran’s capabilities. Claims that Iran was nearing nuclear weapons development remain disputed by the UN nuclear watchdog. The war follows internal unrest in Iran and coincides with U.S. suggestions that the conflict may already be shifting internal power dynamics within the country.

Trump Will End Iran Campaign Even if Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed 

U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal that President Donald Trump is willing to conclude military operations against Iran even if the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely under Iranian control, prioritizing the degradation of Tehran’s naval and missile capabilities over the immediate reopening of the waterway. Internal assessments suggest that forcibly reopening the strait could extend the conflict beyond the administration’s four- to six-week timeframe, so Trump and his advisers are prepared to defer full maritime access while achieving key military objectives. The current plan focuses on weakening Iran’s ability to threaten regional shipping, with diplomatic pressure expected to complement operations, encouraging Tehran to restore trade flows voluntarily. If talks fail, the United States may call on European and Gulf allies to take the lead in reopening the strait, effectively leaving the issue partially in the hands of regional partners. Public warnings on social media about striking Iranian oil infrastructure contrast with internal discussions, which downplay the immediate strategic necessity of reopening the waterway. Officials and former policymakers involved in planning expect Iran’s control to diminish naturally as its military assets are degraded, leaving military action to reopen the passage as a secondary option. This approach reflects a calculated balance between achieving short-term operational goals and avoiding a prolonged escalation over the strait. 

Trump Sets One-Week Ultimatum to Iran Following Haifa Missile Strike 

President Donald Trump issued a one-week warning to Iran on Monday after Tehran launched a missile at Israel’s Haifa oil refinery, signaling that the U.S. will soon determine whether Iran’s new leadership is willing to engage diplomatically. The Haifa attack, which caused a fire at an industrial building and fuel tank, followed an Iranian strike on a water and electricity plant in Kuwait, though damage in Israel was limited as debris from intercepted missiles fell on the facility. Trump highlighted a reshuffling within Tehran, asserting that the previous regime has been largely removed and replaced by a “new set of people” who have been more receptive to diplomacy, while expressing uncertainty over the status of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been publicly seen since the start of U.S.-Israeli operations and may be severely injured. The president also warned that if diplomacy fails, the U.S. could target Iran’s energy infrastructure, including electric plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and potentially desalination facilities. These developments have intensified economic pressure, with Brent crude briefly hitting $115 per barrel and U.S. gasoline averaging $3.99 per gallon, the highest since 2022. Trump’s ultimatum adds urgency to U.S. efforts to evaluate whether Tehran is willing to negotiate or whether further military escalation will follow. 

U.S. Strikes Neutralize Iran’s “Q-Ship” Commerce-Raiding Fleet Early in Conflict 

U.S. military operations have disrupted Iran’s plan to deploy disguised warships and hidden missile platforms to threaten global commerce, targeting vessels designed to masquerade as civilian oil tankers and container ships. According to a report in The Times of London, Operation Epic Fury destroyed five such Iranian ships early in the conflict, with CENTCOM taking the lead on the maritime strikes while Israel focused on eliminating Iranian naval leadership. These vessels, including the IRGC’s Shahid Bagheri, Shahid Mahdavi, Shahid Roudaki, and the conventional navy’s Makran and Tabukan (renamed Kordestan), were intended as long-range commerce raiders capable of launching ballistic missiles from shipping containers, a capability Tehran demonstrated in 2024. The strategy drew inspiration from historical “Q-ships” and relies on subterfuge, surprise, and civilian disguise. While theoretically capable of threatening congested waterways and critical ports, the ships proved vulnerable to modern satellite surveillance, which allowed U.S. forces to locate and neutralize them swiftly. Iran’s General Salami had touted the fleet’s potential to make global seas unsafe for adversaries, but the concept was rendered largely moot by superior intelligence and strike capability. The broader challenge remains: containerized weapons remain a latent global threat, as demonstrated by Ukraine’s 2025 container-based drone strike on Russian strategic bombers and unexplained drone activity over Barksdale Air Force Base, highlighting vulnerabilities in civilian shipping and military infrastructure worldwide. 

USS Tripoli and 31st MEU Deploy to Middle East Amid U.S.-Israeli War with Iran 

The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7), along with elements of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), is en route to the Middle East as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its third week, joining carrier strike groups including USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln. Homeported in Sasebo, Japan, Tripoli was last seen transiting south of Taiwan through the Luzon Strait, though it remains unclear whether the rest of the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group—including USS San Diego (LPD-22) and USS New Orleans (LPD-18)—will accompany the deployment. The 31st MEU, based in Okinawa, recently completed the annual Iron Fist exercise with Japan and achieved full certification in February. The MEU consists of approximately 2,200 Marines, in addition to the sailors aboard Tripoli, and will augment the U.S. Navy’s forward-deployed presence in the region. Tripoli supports Marine Corps F-35B Joint Strike Fighter Lightning IIs and has previously operated as a “lightning carrier,” hosting at least 19 F-35Bs in 2022. While ARG/MEUs in U.S. Central Command often focus on noncombatant evacuation operations, the specific mission set for Tripoli and its embarked Marines in the Middle East remains unannounced, though their arrival increases U.S. amphibious and air capability amid ongoing hostilities. 

U.S. Troop Casualties Rise to 200 Wounded Across Middle East as Iran Conflict Expands 

As of March 17th, the number of U.S. service members wounded in the ongoing war with Iran has risen to around 200 across seven countries in the Middle East, according to a U.S. Central Command spokesman, marking a notable increase from earlier Pentagon estimates of approximately 140. Captain Tim Hawkins stated that the majority of injuries are minor, with more than 180 personnel already returned to duty, while 10 troops are classified as seriously wounded. The injuries have been reported in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, reflecting the wide geographic scope of Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks against U.S. forces and allied positions. In addition to the wounded, 13 U.S. troops have been killed since the conflict began, including seven fatalities from hostile attacks and six from a plane crash in Iraq. The casualties come amid a sustained U.S. and Israeli air campaign launched on February 28 targeting Iranian military infrastructure, which has triggered ongoing retaliation from Tehran. The expanding casualty figures underscore both the intensity of the conflict and its regional spread, as U.S. forces remain engaged across multiple theaters facing persistent missile, drone, and asymmetric threats. 

F-35 Damaged Over Iran as U.S. Aircraft Losses Mount in Escalating Conflict 

A U.S. Air Force F-35A pilot sustained shrapnel wounds after their aircraft was struck by ground fire during a combat mission over Iran on March 19, according to sources familiar with the incident. While U.S. Central Command has not released specifics, the damage was likely caused by a surface-to-air missile given the aircraft’s operating altitude. The jet managed an emergency landing at a regional base, and the pilot was reported to be in stable condition. The incident remains under investigation, with officials declining further comment. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a video claiming to show the strike, though its authenticity has not been verified. Iran also reported an attempted strike on an F-15E Strike Eagle days later, supported by unconfirmed footage. Iranian officials claim the F-35 was “severely damaged,” but the U.S. has not confirmed the extent. The incident highlights evolving threats, including Iranian air defense systems using infrared tracking capable of targeting stealth aircraft. The F-35 damage adds to roughly 20 U.S. aircraft losses in the conflict, including drones, tankers, and fighters, amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. positions across the region.

U.S. Accelerates Amphibious Deployments Amid Consideration of Kharg Island Seizure 

The Pentagon is deploying the USS Boxer Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) with the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), alongside the USS Portland and USS Comstock, as part of an accelerated movement to support Operation Epic Fury against Iran. The 11th MEU includes roughly 2,500 personnel with air and ground components, supplementing the earlier deployment of the USS Tripoli ARG and 31st MEU from the Pacific. U.S. officials indicate the administration is weighing either a naval blockade or potential seizure of Iran’s strategic Kharg Island to pressure Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blocked, disrupting global energy markets. Surveillance of Kharg Island is ongoing via MQ-4C Triton drones, and Trump has threatened targeting the island’s oil facilities if maritime passage is obstructed. Military planners note that a direct assault would be highly risky due to the island’s proximity—20 miles from the Iranian mainland—and the threat of bombardment, requiring long-range aviation or amphibious operations under heavy fire. A blockade could be achieved more quickly but would expose U.S. forces to missile and drone attacks. Strategically, seizing Kharg could cut off Iran’s vital oil revenue, potentially destabilizing the regime, but risks prolonged engagement and significant escalation. The next phase of Operation Epic Fury will become clearer as amphibious forces approach the Gulf and prepare for possible actions against Kharg Island. 

A-10 Warthogs Target Iran’s Fast Boat Fleet in the Strait of Hormuz 

U.S. A-10 Warthog attack jets are now actively engaging Iranian naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime mission for which pilots have long trained despite the aircraft’s primary association with land-based close air support. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Dan Caine, confirmed that the A-10s are hunting fast attack boats, mine layers, and other small craft, contributing to the broader U.S. goal of neutralizing Iran’s naval capabilities under Operation Epic Fury. The aircraft operate with long loiter times and are equipped with 70mm APKWS II laser-guided rockets, AGM-65 Maverick air-to-surface missiles, AIM-9M Sidewinders for self-defense, and the 30mm GAU-8/A Avenger cannon, all suitable for maritime interdiction, including kamikaze-style unmanned surface vessels that Iran and its proxies have deployed. The Warthogs’ role complements other assets, including AH-64 Apaches operated by U.S. and allied forces, and supports ongoing strikes against coastal missile storage sites, ammunition depots, and bunkered Iranian infrastructure. Training exercises with Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships demonstrated the aircraft’s utility in mine-clearing operations. The A-10’s maritime engagement occurs alongside a U.S. buildup in the region, including amphibious assault groups and Marines, signaling that Washington is prepared to escalate options—including a possible Kharg Island operation—to reopen the strategically critical strait and secure global shipping lanes, though any such operation carries substantial operational risks. 

U.S. Army Raises Enlistment Age to 42, Loosens Marijuana Conviction Rules 

The U.S. Army announced a major update to its enlistment rules, raising the maximum recruitment age from 35 to 42 and removing barriers for applicants with a single marijuana or drug paraphernalia conviction. The changes, effective in April, aim to broaden the recruiting pool following shortfalls in Regular Army enlistments in 2022 and 2023, although numbers rebounded in 2024. Previously, waivers were sometimes granted for older recruits, but the new policy formalizes expanded age eligibility. Comparatively, the Air Force and Navy permit recruits over 40, while the Marine Corps generally caps enlistment at 28, allowing waivers for older applicants. The Army’s current recruits average 22.7 years of age, up from 21.7 in the 2000s and 21.1 in the 2010s, reflecting a trend toward slightly older entrants. The marijuana policy adjustment recognizes changing state laws, though cannabis remains prohibited for service members. More serious drug convictions still require waivers. Army leadership emphasized that the updates reflect a strategic effort to reach a wider demographic of potential enlistees, addressing modern recruiting challenges while maintaining standards for operational readiness and compliance with military law. The policy is expected to have significant implications for expanding the pool of qualified candidates across both active duty and reserve components. 

Iranian Strike Damages U.S. AWACS, Exposing Critical Gaps in Airpower Command 

A March 27 Iranian missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia damaged a U.S. Air Force E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft, potentially beyond repair, along with aerial refueling tankers, and injured more than 10 service members, two seriously. The E-3, a key command-and-control platform used since the late 1970s in major conflicts, provides battlefield coordination, surveillance, and targeting support. With only 16 remaining in the fleet and a mission-capable rate of about 56 percent, the loss of one aircraft significantly strains U.S. operational capacity. Experts warn the damage could create immediate gaps in battlespace awareness, reducing effectiveness in targeting and airspace coordination, particularly for fighter pilots who depend on AWACS for situational oversight. Iran’s targeting of high-value assets such as radar systems, tankers, and command aircraft appears deliberate, reflecting an asymmetric strategy to degrade U.S. airpower projection. Despite a reported decline in Iranian launch activity, the attack highlights Tehran’s continued capability to strike critical infrastructure. The incident adds pressure on an already aging and overstretched AWACS fleet and intensifies calls to accelerate replacement efforts, particularly the E-7 Wedgetail, as reliance on future space-based systems remains insufficient for current operational demands.

Spain and Italy Withdraw Special Forces from Iraq Amid Rising Regional Threats 

Spain has quietly withdrawn its roughly 300 special forces personnel from Iraq after deteriorating security made training missions with Iraqi counter-terrorism units untenable, relocating them to undisclosed safe locations, potentially in Turkey. The withdrawal follows repeated attacks on coalition forces, including Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan and Iraq, and a deadly Shahed drone strike on a French base near Erbil that killed Chief Warrant Officer Arnaud Frion and wounded several other soldiers. France condemned the strike, emphasizing its forces are in Iraq solely for counter-ISIS operations and stressing that the Iran conflict cannot justify attacks on coalition personnel. Italy has likewise begun repositioning troops, withdrawing about 100 from its Erbil base and relocating around 40 to Jordan, while maintaining a limited presence to protect thousands of Italian citizens and remaining personnel across the Middle East. The moves reflect growing concerns over the spillover of the U.S.–Israel campaign against Iran into Iraq, where local pro-Tehran militias and ongoing drone attacks have increasingly endangered Western forces. Both countries’ decisions underscore the escalating risk for foreign troops operating in the region, highlight the fragility of coalition operations, and demonstrate the challenges of balancing mission objectives with personnel safety amid the intensifying Middle East conflict. 

UK Reaffirms Focus on Ukraine Amid Middle East Tensions During Zelensky Visit 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the need to keep global attention on Ukraine during talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky in London, despite escalating US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Hosting Zelensky at Downing Street following a private audience with King Charles III, Starmer stressed that support for Kyiv must remain a priority, noting the ongoing Middle East war has complicated international efforts, including partially rolled-back U.S. sanctions on Russia aimed at stabilizing oil markets. The visit coincided with Downing Street announcing a new UK-Ukraine defense partnership focused on countering low-cost drone threats, reflecting continued European commitment to Ukraine’s military resilience. Zelensky, who expressed gratitude to the British monarchy for its support, planned additional meetings in London with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and members of parliament, underscoring the diplomatic push to secure sustained aid. Starmer reinforced the UK’s unwavering resolve in backing Ukraine, framing the conflict as central to European security despite competing crises abroad. The visit highlights Kyiv’s ongoing effort to consolidate military and diplomatic support from Western allies, maintain momentum in countering Russian aggression, and ensure that attention and resources are not diverted amid intensifying regional conflicts elsewhere, particularly in the Middle East. 

UK Deploys Air Defense Systems and Forces to Gulf Amid Iranian Missile Threats 

Britain is deploying short-range air defense systems to Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, to counter Iranian missile and drone attacks, Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed. The Rapid Sentry anti-drone system, described by Defense Minister John Healey as “battle-tested,” will be sent to Kuwait, while airspace specialists have been embedded across Gulf partners. HMS Dragon has arrived in the eastern Mediterranean to reinforce Cyprus’s defense, responding to criticism over slow initial protection following a drone attack on Britain’s Akrotiri base after the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The UK has increased air defense personnel in Cyprus by 500 and now maintains more military jets in the region than at any time in the past 15 years, with pilots logging nearly 900 flight hours in defense of Cyprus, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. British bases at Diego Garcia and Fairford are supporting U.S. bombing missions targeting Iranian missile capabilities threatening Strait of Hormuz shipping. Iran’s recent missile attack on Diego Garcia failed to reach its target. Healey emphasized that the UK is committed to protecting its territory and regional allies, securing strategic shipping lanes, and ensuring commercial energy flow while urging Iran to de-escalate and end the ongoing conflict. 

Shell CEO Warns Europe Could Face Fuel Shortages Amid Iran Conflict 

Shell CEO Wael Sawan has warned that European countries may confront fuel shortages as early as next month due to the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, which has disrupted major energy facilities in the Gulf and severely curtailed maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery handling roughly 20% of global oil flows. The conflict has already strained jet fuel supplies, with diesel expected to be next, followed by gasoline just as the summer driving season begins. Asia has borne the initial brunt, with Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan rationing fuel and reducing working hours, while Japan and South Korea have tapped strategic reserves. Although Europe is less dependent on Gulf oil—importing about 25% of its crude from North Africa and sourcing additional supplies from the US, Norway, and West Africa—tight global supply and competition from Asian buyers have driven prices higher. The crisis has prompted debate within the EU about reversing its phase-out of Russian oil, which previously supplied a quarter of Europe’s imports, though the European Commission has ruled this out, citing strategic risks. Complicating matters, the Druzhba pipeline via Ukraine has been disrupted since January, with Hungary and Slovakia blaming Kiev for politically motivated flow restrictions. Officials stress Europe must secure alternative sources to mitigate shortages while upholding sanctions against Russia.

Deadly Kabul Strike Sparks Afghanistan–Pakistan Escalation Amid Conflicting Claims 

An alleged Pakistani airstrike on Kabul has sharply escalated tensions with Afghanistan, with Taliban officials claiming the strike hit the Omid Addiction Treatment Hospital and killed up to 400 people, mostly patients, while injuring around 250 and destroying much of the 2,000-bed facility. Afghan authorities condemned the attack as a violation of sovereignty, while rescue teams continue recovering bodies from the rubble. Pakistan strongly denied targeting civilians, insisting the operation—part of its ongoing campaign “Operation Ghazab lil-Haq”—was aimed at militant infrastructure, including Taliban-linked logistics hubs, ammunition depots, and a drone workshop in Kabul and Nangarhar Province. The strike follows intensifying cross-border clashes that began on February 26, with both sides accusing each other of aggression; Afghan officials also reported Pakistani mortar fire hitting villages in Khost Province, killing civilians, including children. The confrontation reflects a broader dispute, as Pakistan accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban government of harboring militant groups like the Pakistani Taliban, a claim Kabul denies. The violence marks one of the most severe flare-ups between the two countries in years, raising concerns of wider regional instability. Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council has extended the mandate of its Afghanistan mission and urged stronger counterterrorism efforts, underscoring growing international alarm over the deteriorating security situation. 

Israel Destroys Key Bridges in Southern Lebanon to Disrupt Hezbollah Movement 

Israel’s defense minister announced that the military destroyed two bridges over the Litani River in southern Lebanon, asserting they were being used by Hezbollah for weapons smuggling and the movement of operatives. The strikes were framed as a targeted effort to disrupt Hezbollah’s logistical networks and limit the flow of reinforcements into southern areas. Israeli officials emphasized that the action also serves as a warning to the Lebanese government, accusing Hezbollah of exploiting national infrastructure to support militant operations and signaling that such activity will not be tolerated. Prior to the strikes, the Israeli military issued evacuation warnings to civilians in the surrounding regions, advising residents to move north of the Zahrani River to avoid potential danger. The military stated its intent was to prevent the transfer of weapons and personnel by targeting critical crossings along the Litani River corridor. The operation reflects a broader strategy of degrading Hezbollah’s mobility and supply routes amid escalating regional tensions. By focusing on infrastructure nodes, Israel aims to impose operational constraints on Hezbollah while increasing pressure on Lebanese authorities to curb the group’s activities within their territory. 

Deadly Strikes in Iraq Target Pro-Iran Forces and Kurdish Security Amid Regional War 

An airstrike in western Anbar province, Iraq, killed 15 members of the Hashed al-Shaabi, a paramilitary coalition including Iran-backed brigades, marking the deadliest attack on the group since the Iran war began on February 28. The strike, which reportedly targeted a provincial commander and the coalition’s operational headquarters, was blamed on the United States by Hashed al-Shaabi officials, who described it as a “treacherous American attack.” Concurrently, a ballistic missile strike in autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan killed six peshmerga fighters and wounded 30, with regional authorities accusing Iran of carrying out the attack, representing the first such deadly strike in the region since hostilities escalated. The incidents highlight Iraq’s growing entanglement in the conflict initiated by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, as pro-Iran armed groups have claimed responsibility for attacks on U.S. personnel and interests across Iraq and the wider Middle East. Baghdad has repeatedly condemned strikes on Hashed al-Shaabi, whose forces, initially formed to combat IS in 2014, have since gained influence politically, militarily, and economically. The Pentagon has acknowledged helicopter strikes against these factions, while Kurdish authorities, despite close ties with Washington, have attempted to maintain neutrality, emphasizing the challenge of balancing regional relations amid escalating Iranian-U.S.-Israeli hostilities. 

Israeli Strikes Kill Nine in Gaza Amid Ongoing Ceasefire Violations 

Gaza’s civil defense agency reported that nine people were killed in Israeli strikes in the southern part of the territory, including eight fatalities from attacks on police posts in the Al-Mawasi area on Saturday evening and one additional death on Sunday near a roundabout in Khan Yunis after Israeli fire. According to Palestinian sources, a young girl was among those killed, with scenes from Nasser Hospital showing bodies wrapped in white shrouds and grieving families mourning their losses. The Israeli military did not directly comment on the reported strikes but stated it had eliminated a group of 10 Hamas militants operating in central Gaza, along with another individual accused of repeatedly crossing a restricted zone. Both Israel and Hamas continue to accuse each other of breaching the ceasefire that has been in place since October 10, which had largely paused two years of conflict. Despite the truce, Israeli operations have continued, with the Gaza health ministry reporting at least 702 ‎Palestinians ‎killed since the ceasefire began, figures the United Nations considers reliable. Israel, meanwhile, reports that five of its soldiers have been killed during the same period, while restricted media access in Gaza limits independent verification of events on the ground.

Russian Lawmaker Proposes Freezing Ukraine War to Support Iran 

A Russian lawmaker has suggested freezing the war in Ukraine to allow Moscow to redirect military focus toward supporting Iran, signaling a potential strategic shift amid escalating Middle East tensions. Dmitry Kuznetsov, a member of the State Duma’s international affairs committee, argued that prioritizing the Persian Gulf over Ukraine could increase pressure on Western nations, disrupt global oil supplies, and potentially influence political changes in Europe and Ukraine. He proposed that such a move might push the United States toward negotiations and lead to a neutral Ukrainian government recognizing Russian territorial claims, though he provided no clear mechanism for how this would occur. Kuznetsov also suggested future conflicts should take place far from Russia’s borders, with forces potentially deployed to overseas missions, including protecting Gulf states. The remarks come as Russian forces reportedly near full control of Donetsk, while Ukrainian troops maintain positions in the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk area. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister confirmed ongoing military cooperation with Russia and China, underscoring deepening alliances. U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted that Russia may be aiding Iran, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims Russia is supplying drones used in attacks against U.S. forces. Unverified reports also suggest Iran’s new supreme leader may have been evacuated to Moscow following injuries, further highlighting growing Russia-Iran coordination. 

Ukrainian Long-Range Drones Hit Key Russian Aviation and Maintenance Facilities 

Ukrainian long-range one-way attack drones recently struck two major Russian aviation sites, the Aviastar aircraft plant in Ulyanovsk and the 123rd Aircraft Repair Plant in Staraya Russa, targeting Russia’s military transport and support aviation capabilities. Aviastar, Russia’s largest aircraft manufacturing facility and part of United Aircraft Corporation under Rostec, produces Il-76MD-90A transports and Il-78M-90A tankers, while also maintaining heavy transport aircraft like the An-124 “Ruslan.” The Staraya Russa repair plant handles Il-76, Il-78, and L-410 aircraft maintenance, modernization, and engine and propeller work, and reportedly hosted two high-value A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft during the strike. OSINT and local monitoring channels noted drone activity near both facilities, though Russian authorities have not confirmed the damage. These strikes reflect Ukraine’s ongoing strategy to disrupt Russia’s aviation production, maintenance, and logistics capabilities without engaging directly on the front lines. Transport and tanker aircraft are critical for troop movement, supply chains, and extending combat operations, while repair plants maintain operational readiness. The targeting of A-50 aircraft further threatens Russia’s long-range surveillance and air command capacity. The attacks underscore a growing use of long-range drones to strike strategic industrial and military nodes deep inside Russian territory, aiming to degrade aviation sustainment and readiness for ongoing operations.

Ukraine Repels Major Russian Assaults with Heavy Losses for Moscow 

Between March 17 and 20, 2026, Russian forces conducted 619 assault operations across multiple fronts in Ukraine but failed to breach defensive lines, sustaining severe casualties, according to Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The main attacks targeted the Pokrovsk and Oleksandrivsk sectors, with 163 and 96 assaults respectively, while Kostiantynivka, Ocheretyne, Lyman, and Kupiansk also faced sustained engagements. Ukrainian forces, anticipating the escalation, reinforced frontline units with personnel, weapons, and ammunition, enabling them to absorb the attacks and prevent breakthroughs. Russian forces relied heavily on repeated frontal “meat assaults,” resulting in over 6,090 killed or wounded in the four-day period, with total weekly losses reaching approximately 8,710 personnel. Defensive operations combined artillery, drone support, and fortified positions, while Ukrainian units executed localized counteractions under the “active defense” approach to regain initiative in some sectors. Russian units are reportedly regrouping and deploying additional forces, seeking to exploit worsening weather to reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian reconnaissance and aerial operations. Syrskyi emphasized that the cohesion and resilience of Ukrainian troops, coupled with coordinated command decisions, were decisive in halting the offensive, inflicting heavy losses, and maintaining control across contested lines of contact. 

Ukraine Strikes Cripple 40% of Russia’s Oil Export Capacity 

Ukraine’s intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, combined with a disputed pipeline strike and tanker seizures, have forced roughly 40% of Russia’s crude export capacity offline, Reuters reports, marking the most severe disruption in modern Russian oil history. The shutdown, affecting around 2 million barrels per day, targets key western export hubs including the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, and segments of the Druzhba pipeline supplying Hungary and Slovakia. Ukraine has also struck pumping stations and refineries, aiming to cut Moscow’s oil and gas revenues, which fund approximately a quarter of the state budget, and weaken its military capabilities. The Novorossiysk terminal, capable of 700,000 bpd, has been operating below capacity since drone attacks earlier this month, while European seizures of Russian tankers have disrupted about 300,000 bpd of Arctic exports from Murmansk. Russia is compensating by shipping crude to Asia via pipelines to China and ESPO Blend exports through Kozmino, as well as output from Sakhalin and deliveries to Belarus, totaling roughly 2.45 million bpd. The combined effects of these strikes, seizures, and pipeline disruptions, amid oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to the Iran war, threaten a critical blow to Moscow’s revenue streams and illustrate Ukraine’s growing capacity to target Russia’s strategic energy infrastructure

Russia Shifts Energy Exports to Neighbors Amid Iran Conflict and Global Market Volatility 

Russia is recalibrating its energy export strategy in response to global market disruptions caused by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev stated. While Russia’s own oil and gas flows remain largely unaffected, Moscow plans to prioritize deliveries to neighboring countries with land borders, considered less exposed to geopolitical and logistical risks, and reassess pipeline and shipping logistics. The move highlights Russia’s long-standing tension with the European Union over energy trade, as Brussels’ preference for spot-market pricing and sanctions following the 2022 Ukraine escalation have led Moscow to deem EU buyers unreliable. Instead, Russia has increasingly turned toward Asian partners, notably China, via long-term pipeline deals such as Power of Siberia II, while simultaneously leveraging a “shadow fleet” of tankers to bypass Western restrictions. Recent developments underscore the impact of the Iran conflict: India reportedly purchased 60 million barrels of Russian crude at a premium over Brent, while the Philippines received its first Russian shipment in years, delivered to the Bataan refinery from the Kozmino terminal. The strategy reflects Moscow’s focus on stable, politically aligned buyers and flexible logistics amid global oil and LNG shocks, while reinforcing Russia’s capacity to exploit market dislocations to its advantage. 

Ukraine Deploys Drone Experts to Gulf to Counter Regional Threats and Export Defense Tech 

Ukraine has begun sending military specialists to the Middle East to support regional partners against drone threats, leveraging battlefield experience gained during the war with Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky told the UK parliament that 201 Ukrainian experts are already deployed across the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, with 34 more personnel ready for deployment, and additional missions planned for Kuwait. These teams focus on detecting and intercepting one-way attack drones, drawing on experience countering Iranian-designed Shahed loitering munitions, using low-cost interceptor drones instead of expensive missile systems, with two to three drones under $10,000 sufficient to neutralize a single threat. Similar principles are applied at sea, employing maritime drones to target Russian naval assets in the Black Sea. Zelensky highlighted that these adaptable systems could also strengthen early warning and protect strategic infrastructure in regions like the Strait of Hormuz. The deployments form part of Ukraine’s broader effort to internationalize its defense industry, promoting domestically developed drone technologies to global markets. Saudi Arabia has reportedly begun acquiring Ukrainian counter-drone systems, while wider agreements are under negotiation. Ukraine is simultaneously establishing up to 10 export hubs across Europe to manage surplus equipment sales and channel proceeds into critical weapons procurement, positioning the country as a growing supplier of cost-effective, combat-tested drone defense solutions internationally.

China Bolsters Oil Stockpiles as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Hits Asia 

China has expanded its crude oil stockpiles during January and February, leveraging both high imports and increased domestic production, despite elevated refining rates. Imports averaged 11.99 million barrels per day (bpd), while domestic production reached 4.42 million bpd, providing a total crude supply of 16.41 million bpd. Refineries processed 15.17 million bpd over the same period, resulting in an average storage build of 1.24 million bpd. While lower than December’s all-time high of 2.67 million bpd, the current build remains above the 2025 average of 1.13 million bpd, giving China a strategic buffer to withstand regional supply shocks. Analysts describe the stockpiles as a deliberate hedge to mitigate the impact of disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens Middle East crude supplies to Asia. In response, China’s largest refiner, Sinopec, has cut run rates by 10%, temporarily reducing output of refined petroleum products, while the country has suspended fuel exports to prioritize domestic energy security. Asia, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, could see up to 6 million bpd of crude processing disrupted in April under worst-case scenarios. These measures, including stockpiling, export restrictions, and refining adjustments, are designed to stabilize China’s energy supply and protect the region’s largest oil demand center from short-term crises, ensuring continued domestic and industrial consumption. 

Kim Jong-un Showcases Tactical Nuclear Rockets, Signals Threat to U.S. and South Korea 

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conducted a high-profile rocket launch over the weekend, warning that the country’s enemies—primarily the United States and South Korea—would soon face the “destructive power of tactical nuclear weapon[s].” The launch, documented by state media alongside his daughter Ju-ae, featured twelve 600mm ultra-precision multiple rocket launchers and two artillery companies, targeting an island in the East Sea (Sea of Japan) with claimed “100 percent” accuracy. Kim described the rockets as capable of carrying nuclear payloads, asserting their primary purpose as deterrence to prevent foreign attacks, while signaling that any U.S. or South Korean military infrastructure within range “can never survive.” Analysts noted the systems could threaten major U.S. bases in South Korea and enable so-called “tactical nuclear saturation” strikes. The launch appears influenced by North Korea’s awareness of the U.S.-Iran war, where Operation Epic Fury has severely weakened Iran’s military, a country with which Pyongyang maintains close ties. Meanwhile, diplomatic channels remain active: President Donald Trump reportedly expressed interest in resuming talks with Kim, with South Korean officials relaying that dialogue could preserve the possibility of a summit. The North Korean exercises coincide with broader regional tensions, including Trump’s planned, but potentially delayed, visit to China, amid frustration over Beijing’s response to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Kim’s rhetoric and missile demonstration reinforce both deterrence messaging and the regime’s dynastic succession signaling.

Iran Deepens Strategic Alignment with Russia and China Amid Escalating Conflict 

Iran is strengthening its strategic partnership with Russia and China across military, political, and economic domains as tensions with the United States and Israel intensify, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. In a recent interview, Araghchi described Moscow and Beijing as key partners supporting Tehran during the ongoing conflict, which began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28 and has since resulted in over 2,000 deaths across the region. Reports have suggested that Russia may have provided Iran with sensitive intelligence, including locations of U.S. military assets in the Gulf, though the Kremlin has not confirmed this and declined to comment on whether Washington issued warnings against such cooperation. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff stated he had strongly urged Russia not to share targeting data with Tehran. The growing alignment reflects a broader trend over the past decade, with Iran, Russia, and China expanding defense cooperation through joint exercises and security agreements. Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed drones used in Ukraine, while both countries previously supported Syria’s government militarily. Meanwhile, China remains Iran’s primary economic partner, particularly in energy, purchasing the majority of its oil exports despite sanctions. This deepening trilateral relationship underscores an emerging geopolitical bloc countering Western influence across multiple theaters.