END OF NOVEMBER BI-WEEKLY UPDATE
LEAD STORIES
Two Undersea Cables Damaged within 24 Hours, Sabotage Suspected
Two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea were damaged in quick succession, prompting concerns of sabotage amid rising tensions between NATO and Russia. The cables, crucial for global internet and communication services, were severed near the Swedish island of Öland and between Lithuania and Sweden. The Finnish-German C-Lion1 cable, stretching 1,173 kilometers, was cut on Monday, while a separate cable between Lithuania and Sweden was disrupted on Sunday. Both disruptions occurred in the same Baltic region, raising suspicions of coordinated attacks rather than accidents, with experts warning of hybrid warfare tactics. NATO officials and local telecommunications companies are investigating the incidents, which follow similar attacks, including the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage in 2022. Russian actions have been linked to efforts to threaten European critical infrastructure, with NATO countries wary of Russia's capabilities in undersea sabotage. Germany's defense minister suggested the incidents were deliberate, speculating they were part of a broader pattern of "hybrid" warfare, though the perpetrators remain unidentified.
Russia Restricts Exports of Enriched Uranium to the US
Russia has imposed temporary restrictions on the export of enriched uranium to the United States, impacting U.S. nuclear power plants that imported a quarter of their enriched uranium from Russia last year. The move follows a U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports, enacted earlier this year, although waivers allowed shipments to continue until 2027 in cases of supply shortages. Russia, the world's sixth-largest uranium producer, controls 44% of global uranium enrichment capacity. In 2023, the U.S. was one of the top importers of Russian uranium, along with China, South Korea, and France. President Putin had previously suggested limiting exports of uranium, titanium, and nickel in retaliation for Western sanctions. This decree marks the first step in responding to these sanctions. Russia supplied 27% of the U.S.'s enriched uranium last year, but imports have decreased by 30% this year. While the U.S. ban took effect in August, Russian exports may still continue through authorized companies. The U.S. is also investigating a rise in uranium imports from China, potentially circumventing the ban.
‘WWIII Has Officially Begun’ According to Former Ukrainian Top Military Commander
Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, Valery Zaluzhny, a former Commander-in-Chief, has warned that World War III is effectively underway, citing the growing internationalization of the Ukraine conflict. In an interview with Politico, Zaluzhny highlighted North Korean troops, Iranian drones, and alleged Chinese support for Russia as evidence that Ukraine is battling a coalition of adversaries. He argued that while Ukraine’s survival hinges on advanced technology, it cannot win alone without more robust Western support. Western nations, including the U.S., UK, and France, have provided billions in military aid, including F-16 jets and long-range missiles, intensifying the conflict. Moscow, which accuses the West of escalating the war, has warned of further destabilization. Meanwhile, British Deputy Defense Chief Rob Magowan reaffirmed the UK’s readiness to confront Russia if needed, underscoring broader concerns about a potential spillover into Eastern Europe. With the Biden administration rushing to arm Kyiv before a potential Trump presidency, critics warn of uncontrolled escalation as Ukraine’s battlefield prospects grow increasingly uncertain, according to The Economist.
Several Wagner Group Mercenaries Killed by al-Qaeda- Linked JNIM
At least seven Russian Wagner Group mercenaries were killed in an attack in central Mali claimed by al Qaeda-affiliate JNIM (Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims), according to SITE Intelligence. The attack, which occurred on Thursday, highlights the persistent danger faced by Wagner forces operating in the Sahel region under military juntas. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger continue to battle separatists and militant groups linked to Islamic State and al Qaeda, which have entrenched themselves across the region. Video and photos purportedly from JNIM showed lifeless bodies of soldiers and seized weaponry. A Malian army source confirmed the deaths of seven fighters, including Russian personnel, while a local administrator reported five Wagner fatalities. The attackers, identified as Katiba Macina, a JNIM branch, reportedly killed six Russians, possibly from the Africa Corps, a Kremlin-controlled force replacing Wagner in Africa. Mali insists Russian forces are not mercenaries but trainers supporting its military. Wagner previously suffered heavy losses in July during clashes near the Algeria border.
BORDER CRISIS
Plans Confirmed, Trump to Use Military for Mass Deportations
President-elect Donald Trump confirmed plans to declare a national emergency on border security and use the U.S. military to implement a mass deportation of undocumented migrants. Immigration was a key issue in Trump's campaign, during which he vowed to deport millions and stabilize the southern border after record migrant crossings during President Joe Biden's tenure. Trump endorsed claims on Truth Social suggesting he would reverse what he termed the "Biden invasion" using military assets, appointing immigration hardliner Tom Homan as his "border czar." Homan previously warned undocumented migrants to "start packing now." Trump also plans to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to expedite deportations, despite criticism of its outdated and controversial history. Critics highlight Trump's incendiary rhetoric, including unfounded claims about migrants, and note the potential impact on an estimated 20 million families. While border encounters peaked in late 2023, they have since returned to levels comparable to Trump’s first term. His proposals have reignited sharp debates over immigration policy and executive authority.
65K More Foreign Workers Being Funneled in Blue-Collar Jobs by Biden-Harris DHS
The Biden administration, through the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), has announced an additional 65,000 H-2B foreign visa workers will be imported into the U.S. to fill blue-collar jobs in industries like construction, meatpacking, and landscaping. This move expands the existing cap of 66,000 H-2B workers and is intended to meet labor demands while keeping prices low for consumers, according to DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Of the new visas, 20,000 will go to workers from countries like Guatemala, El Salvador, and Haiti, while the remaining 45,000 will go to workers who have previously held H-2B visas. Critics argue the expansion exacerbates job losses among native-born Americans, as recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows native workers lost nearly 800,000 jobs while foreign-born workers gained over a million positions. Furthermore, native-born Americans still face a jobs deficit compared to pre-pandemic levels, with most new job growth going to migrant workers, raising concerns about the impact of the H-2B program on the U.S. labor market.
Incoming Trump Admin Offered 1,400 Acres of Land in Texas for Criminal Migrant Detention/Deportation Center
Texas General Land Office (GLO) Commissioner Dawn Buckingham offered to lease a 1,400-acre tract of land near the Texas-Mexico border to the incoming Trump administration for building a facility dedicated to the processing, detention, and deportation of violent criminal migrants. In her letter to President-elect Donald Trump, Buckingham emphasized that the facility would support what she described as "the largest deportation of violent criminals in the nation’s history." The land, purchased by the GLO in October, is located in Starr County, a known hotspot for drug and human smuggling. Buckingham's offer also includes plans for the construction of a 1.5-mile border wall along the property’s Rio Grande frontage, after previous owners blocked law enforcement access. This proposal comes amid the Trump administration's focus on ramping up border security and deportations, with Trump signaling the potential use of U.S. military forces to address the border crisis. Buckingham’s efforts align with her ongoing commitment to combat illegal immigration and cartel activity in Texas.
Self-Deporting Haitian Migrants Start Leaving Places Like Springfield Ohio for Sanctuary Cities
Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, are reportedly self-deporting and seeking refuge in sanctuary cities such as Chicago and New York City. Springfield, with a population of 50,000, became a focal point of national attention when President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance highlighted the influx of Haitian migrants, driven by President Joe Biden's immigration policies. Over the past few years, 10,000 to 20,000 Haitian migrants, many with Temporary Protected Status (TPS) or parole, have arrived in the city. Their presence has reportedly led to increased housing costs, welfare dependency, and a rise in car accidents. As Trump and Vance's political victories unfold, many Haitian migrants, frustrated by rising rents and housing shortages in Springfield, are fleeing to cities that offer sanctuary policies. These migrants are drawn to areas like Chicago and New York City, where they seek more affordable living conditions. The migration surge has intensified local housing market pressures, with landlords capitalizing on the influx by raising rents, pricing out native residents.
BOHICA!
7th Audit in a Row Failed by Pentagon, Can’t Account for $824BN Budget
The Pentagon has failed its seventh consecutive audit, with the Department of Defense (DOD) unable to account for its $824 billion budget in fiscal year 2024. Auditors found 28 material weaknesses, two significant deficiencies, and six instances of noncompliance, preventing them from issuing a clean opinion on the DOD's financial management. The audit, conducted by independent firms, reviewed 27 components of the DOD. Despite ongoing improvements since 2005, the Pentagon still faces significant financial management challenges. Pentagon officials, including Comptroller Michael McCord, insisted that while progress is being made, the audit's failure was not unexpected. McCord highlighted that the DOD has effectively managed real-world operations, such as providing military supplies to Ukraine, despite the lack of a clean audit. Critics, including Sen. Rick Scott, expressed concerns about the lack of accountability for taxpayer funds and called for greater financial oversight. The DOD aims to achieve a clean audit by fiscal year 2028, but it remains unclear whether this goal will be met.
US to Send Another $275MN in Weapons to Ukraine
The U.S. is providing $275 million in military aid to Ukraine, including air-defense weapons, ammunition, drones, and other essential supplies, through the presidential drawdown authority, which enables quick emergency transfers from U.S. military stocks. This aid package arrives as the Biden administration transitions to President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, with Trump promising to resolve the conflict quickly once in office. The latest round of weapons support follows Ukraine's use of U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike Russian targets, including an ammunition supply in Karachev. In response, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use. The U.S. also authorized the supply of anti-personnel mines to aid Ukraine’s defenses against Russian infantry. The Pentagon is working to ensure that all funds for Ukraine aid are used before Trump takes office, with $7.1 billion in military stockpiles needed to be delivered within the next two months. Since February 2022, the U.S. has provided over $60.7 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.
World Bank Sees Biden Pledge Record $4BN to Fund the Poorest Countries
President Joe Biden pledged a historic $4 billion U.S. contribution to the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) fund, aimed at supporting the world's poorest countries. Announced during a closed session at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, this three-year pledge marks a significant increase from the $3.5 billion the U.S. committed during the previous replenishment in 2021. The U.S. Treasury is leading negotiations for the IDA replenishment, with a conference scheduled for December 5-6 in Seoul. The IDA fund primarily provides grants and low-interest loans to the poorest nations, which are facing severe challenges such as debt, climate disasters, and conflict. This U.S. pledge comes amid growing global demands for increased financial support. Although the pledge is historic, it remains unclear if President-elect Donald Trump, known for advocating cuts to foreign aid, will honor Biden's commitment, especially as he and Elon Musk explore efficiency measures in government spending. Biden's pledge represents a 14.3% increase over the 2021 contribution.
US and NATO Officials Discussed the Possibility of Giving Nuclear Weapons to Ukraine
US and European officials have discussed various options to deter Russia from further advancing in Ukraine, including the potential return of nuclear weapons to Ukraine, a scenario that would be an immediate deterrent but carry serious implications. Following Donald Trump’s election, US and NATO allies rushed weapons to Ukraine, including long-range systems, but US intelligence assessments suggest these provisions will not significantly alter Ukraine’s military situation in the short term. The Biden administration, concerned about the window before Trump’s inauguration, has explored escalating support for Ukraine, considering a robust conventional arsenal for deterrence and discussing nuclear options. Despite the challenges, officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to escalate before Trump assumes office, given Trump’s previous stance as a Russia-hawk during his first term. Some experts believe the situation may shift if Ukraine can reverse momentum on the front lines, potentially creating conditions for a ceasefire. The Biden administration’s discussions reflect urgency in supporting Ukraine, but it remains uncertain how these actions will impact the war’s outcome.
WAR (and rumors of war)
US MILITARY
As Fighting Continues, Last US Carrier Group has Left the Middel East
The U.S. Navy is currently without an aircraft carrier in the Middle East for the second time in a year, despite ongoing conflicts in the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln, the Navy's sole carrier in the area, left over the weekend after several months of operations and has entered the U.S. 7th Fleet's vast Indo-Pacific area, accompanied by three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. The Lincoln had been conducting counter-Houthi operations in the region, and its departure follows the June gap when the USS Theodore Roosevelt replaced the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. It is unclear when a new carrier will be deployed, though the USS Harry S. Truman strike group is operating in the Atlantic near Portugal's Azores. The Navy rotates carrier strike groups in and out of the Middle East to defend shipping lanes from Houthi missile and drone attacks and to deter Iran and its proxies. The Pentagon has deployed additional destroyers, fighter jets, and B-52 bombers to support U.S. interests in the region, though no carrier is currently stationed there.
Confirmation by US Military of Use of F-35C Fighters in Yemen for the First Time
The U.S. military has announced the first official combat deployment of the F-35C Lightning II fighter aircraft, which was used to target Houthi positions in Yemen. Deployed by the U.S. Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) from the USS Abraham Lincoln, the F-35C struck Houthi-controlled weapons storage facilities, which included anti-ship missiles threatening vessels in the Red Sea. The strikes were a response to ongoing Houthi attacks on shipping, including drone and missile strikes against U.S. destroyers and a deadly assault on a merchant ship in March. The F-35C’s successful deployment showcases its advanced stealth capabilities, sensors, and precision strike abilities. Lt. Col. Jeffrey Davis, commanding officer of VMFA-314, highlighted the fighter's ability to operate in contested airspace and target deep in enemy territory. The F-35C, developed for the U.S. Navy, marks a significant advancement in naval combat airpower. Its performance in this mission solidifies the F-35C’s role as a key asset for the U.S. military’s carrier air wings.
FORTRESS EUROPE
Finland and Sweden Urge Their Residents to be Prepared for War
Sweden and Finland are enhancing civilian preparedness amid heightened security concerns stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sweden began distributing 5.2 million updated copies of the 32-page pamphlet *If Crisis or War Comes*, advising citizens on preparing for war, natural disasters, and cyber or terror attacks. The pamphlet, an initiative by Sweden's Civil Contingencies Agency, reflects a growing emphasis on resilience and preparedness, urging Swedes to stock food, water, and cash. Sweden, a NATO member since 2022, has also increased defense spending, reintroduced conscription, and bolstered infrastructure like bomb shelters and psychological defense measures. Finland, which shares an 830-mile border with Russia, launched a crisis-preparedness website and is constructing a 200-kilometer border fence, set for completion by 2026, to enhance security against hybrid threats. Both Nordic nations shifted from military non-alignment to NATO membership following Russia's aggression. Sweden’s efforts follow warnings from officials urging citizens to prepare mentally and logistically for potential war, highlighting the increasing militarization and readiness across the region.
Finland Hosts NATO’s Largest Live Artillery Exercise gets Underway
Finland is hosting its first major NATO artillery exercise, Dynamic Front 25, since joining the alliance last year, with live-fire drills taking place from November 4 to 28 in the Arctic Lapland region. The exercise, the largest of its kind in Europe, spans multiple nations, including Estonia, Germany, Romania, and Poland, marking a significant step in NATO’s efforts to strengthen interoperability among its members. Finland, which shares a border with Russia, ended decades of neutrality to join NATO in 2023, following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The drills involve 3,600 soldiers from Finland, the U.S., Sweden, Britain, France, and other NATO members, operating in freezing temperatures at Rovajarvi, Europe’s largest training area. French army captain Romain emphasized the focus on coordinated artillery fire with NATO allies. Finnish Colonel Janne Makitalo highlighted Rovajarvi’s strategic value, allowing complex tactical exercises in Arctic conditions. This large-scale event underscores NATO’s growing emphasis on readiness and adaptability in the face of evolving security challenges in the region.
NATO Officials Warn Companies to Prepare for Wartime Scenario
On November 25, NATO's top military official, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, urged companies to prepare for a "wartime scenario" by restructuring production and supply chains to reduce dependence on nations like China and Russia, highlighting vulnerabilities in critical areas such as energy, medicine, and rare earths. Bauer emphasized that economic resilience is as crucial as military strength in conflicts, citing Europe’s reliance on Gazprom and Chinese infrastructure as examples. Russia responded through Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who alluded to Russia's updated nuclear doctrine. Meanwhile, the U.S. officially confirmed Ukraine's use of U.S.-provided ATACMS to strike Russian targets, including in the Kursk region. National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby clarified the strikes were for immediate defensive needs but acknowledged updated guidance allowing such attacks. Bauer's comments, made during a Brussels think-tank event, stressed that safeguarding essential services against sabotage is critical for deterrence. The developments underscore increasing geopolitical tensions, with NATO prioritizing economic and military preparedness amid ongoing escalations in Ukraine and broader strategic rivalries.
Russian Strikes on Ukraine Causes NATO to Scramble Fighter Jets
Poland scrambled fighter jets near its border with Ukraine following new Russian missile strikes, while the U.S. closed its embassy in Kyiv due to concerns over a large-scale Russian attack. The Polish military heightened its air defense readiness, deploying jets and activating ground-based air-defense systems after Russia targeted western Ukrainian regions, including Lviv and Volyn. Ukrainian forces reported intercepting six Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles, although a Dnipro strike by an ICBM and hypersonic Kinzhal missile caused some damage. Tensions escalated after Moscow’s attacks occasionally spilled over into NATO countries like Poland and Romania. In response, the U.S. embassy in Kyiv was closed after receiving intelligence on a possible major airstrike. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky dismissed panic over a supposed massive Russian attack, calling it disinformation. The previous day, Ukraine used U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, marking a significant escalation. NATO forces had earlier scrambled jets after a major Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Russian Cautions France and Britain Against Sending Mercenary Soldiers to Ukraine
The Kremlin has dismissed reports that Britain and France are discussing sending soldiers to Ukraine, following a Le Monde article that claimed the two countries were considering deploying troops and private defense contractors. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, called the report inaccurate and noted resistance in most European capitals. The discussions reportedly gained traction after Donald Trump’s election and the potential window for reduced Western support for Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron had previously suggested sending troops to Ukraine, a move opposed by Germany. However, the Le Monde article claimed the prospect was not entirely dismissed, citing discussions between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Macron during Armistice Day commemorations. While no concrete decisions have been made, proposals, including the training of Ukrainian soldiers by French contractors and shared facilities with British counterparts, have been under consideration. The reports coincide with increased use of long-range missiles by Ukraine, and as President Zelensky pushes for security guarantees ahead of potential peace talks. Western troops might be deployed post-ceasefire to ensure security, though NATO’s involvement remains unclear.
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
Top-Secret Iranian Nuclear Weapons Facility Destroyed by Israel
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly destroyed a secret nuclear weapons research facility in Iran's Parchin military complex late last month. The strike was part of Israel's retaliation after Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles into Israel. The targeted site, known as Taleghan 2, was involved in Iran's illicit nuclear weapons program, where advanced research for explosive materials needed for nuclear detonation was underway. Satellite imagery confirmed the facility was completely destroyed. U.S. and Israeli officials stated that Iran had attempted to disguise the research as civilian in nature, with only a small number of officials in Tehran aware of the facility's true purpose. The destruction of the facility significantly disrupted Iran's nuclear weapons efforts, which had been progressing for over a year. A U.S. official noted the strike served as a clear message that Israel has deep insight into Iran's secret operations. Experts, like Andrea Stricker, believe Iran is unlikely to retaliate, as doing so would force an admission of violating nuclear non-proliferation commitments.
Despite EU Calls for Ceasefire, Israel and Hezbollah Exchange Fire
Israel struck Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut Sunday as heavy exchanges of fire intensified along the Lebanon-Israel border, with around 250 projectiles fired at Israel, causing damage and injuries. Israeli strikes targeted Hezbollah command centers in south Beirut and reportedly killed Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif. Ground battles along the border destroyed Israeli tanks, according to Hezbollah, while Israel’s airstrikes in Lebanon have killed over 3,754 people since October 2023. The conflict, escalating since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, has drawn international attention, with EU diplomat Josep Borrell calling for a ceasefire under UN Resolution 1701. The resolution mandates the disarmament of Lebanese armed groups and Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon. Hezbollah also launched missile and drone attacks on southern Israel and central Tel Aviv, marking deep penetrations into Israeli territory. Meanwhile, Gaza’s humanitarian crisis worsens, with Israeli air raids killing over 44,211 people since the war began. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, amplifying global scrutiny of the conflict.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Biden Approves Deeper Strikes into Russia, Zelensky says “Missiles will Speak for Themselves’
U.S. President Joe Biden has reportedly authorized Ukraine to use long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for strikes deeper into Russian territory, marking a significant shift in Washington's Ukraine policy. This decision comes amid heightened tensions as North Korean troops, estimated at 10,000, bolster Russia's forces in the ongoing war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the move, emphasizing that "missiles will speak for themselves," while targeting Russian and North Korean positions in Kursk Oblast and beyond. The authorization signals Biden's response to Ukraine's persistent pleas for expanded capabilities and coincides with his administration's final months, as Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. European allies, like France and Britain, may now reconsider their restrictions on missile usage, while Germany remains cautious. Despite threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin, including potential nuclear retaliation, Biden's decision underscores U.S. resolve to support Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump's campaign critiques Biden's approach, suggesting a shift in U.S. strategy post-inauguration. The conflict intensifies as Russia escalates attacks across Ukraine, leaving significant casualties.
Trump Team Strongly Condemns Biden Admins Decision to Allow Direct Strikes
Donald Trump’s allies condemned President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles against Russia, labeling it a dangerous escalation during a critical presidential transition. With Biden set to leave office in January, the policy shift fulfills Ukraine’s long-standing request but raises concerns about intensifying the conflict. Trump, who has promised to end the war without detailing his plan, faces a complex situation as Russia gains ground and Ukraine seeks leverage in potential peace talks. Moscow has vowed retaliation if the missiles are used, while U.S. officials accuse Russia of escalation by deploying North Korean troops. Trump allies, including Mike Waltz and Richard Grenell, criticized Biden for escalating tensions, with claims the move prioritizes politics over stability. Trump Jr. accused the military-industrial complex of pushing for war, while Trump’s spokesperson called him the only leader capable of negotiating peace. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga will visit Congress to secure continued support as Biden aims to solidify aid before Trump assumes office.
Financial Markets Reel as Ukraine Launch First ATACMS Strikes on Russia
A day after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use the long-range MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) against Russian targets, reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces hit a military installation in Russia's western Bryansk region, about 115 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The strike targeted a facility in the Karachev area, reportedly housing significant stockpiles of weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles and munitions supplied by North Korea. The attack is the first use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine on Russian territory. Russian defense sources confirmed that five missiles were shot down, but one damaged the facility, causing a fire. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that such strikes could prompt a nuclear response, citing recent changes to Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine. The strike heightened tensions, with global markets reacting to fears of escalating conflict. Meanwhile, some U.S. observers, including Donald Trump Jr., criticized the Biden administration for potentially driving the world closer to World War III, reflecting concerns over the growing risk of direct conflict.
New Russian Nuclear Doctrine Signed into Law by Putin
President Vladimir Putin has approved Russia's updated nuclear doctrine, which expands the country's nuclear deterrence policy to include its allies, mirroring NATO's collective defense principle. The new doctrine, effective Tuesday, states that nuclear weapons will be used as a last resort against potential enemies, aiming to prevent aggression against Russia and its allies by ensuring retaliation is inevitable in the event of an attack. The policy emphasizes efforts to reduce nuclear threats and avoid military conflicts, including nuclear ones. First unveiled by Putin in September, the policy is seen as a response to Ukraine’s push for long-range Western weaponry, such as the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which President Joe Biden has now authorized. The policy outlines that large-scale missile launches targeting Russia, including those from ATACMS, could justify a nuclear response. Additionally, Belarus, a close ally, is protected under Russia's nuclear umbrella, and any attack on Belarus would trigger a Russian retaliatory strike. Experts caution that while the language is strong, the policy does not significantly alter Russia’s overall nuclear stance.
Russia Fires Multiple-Warhead ICBM into Ukraine in First Recorded Combat Use
Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Ukraine’s Dnipro, marking the first reported combat use of such a weapon. The missile, believed to be the hypersonic RS-26 Rubezh capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads, struck an industrial site and a rehabilitation center, escalating the 33-month conflict. Ukrainian defenses intercepted other missiles, including a Kinzhal and cruise missiles. The RS-26, with a range of over 5,500 km, poses significant challenges for air defense systems like Patriot and SAMP-T, prompting experts to call for advanced systems like THAAD. Moscow provided no comment, while international observers deemed the use unprecedented, as ICBMs are traditionally reserved for strategic deterrence due to their cost and precision. This strike follows Ukraine’s deployment of Western long-range weapons like ATACMS, to which Russia had warned of severe retaliation. The incident coincides with Putin’s recent update to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, framing non-nuclear aggression backed by nuclear states as a direct threat. The RS-26's deployment may signal its reconsideration in Russia's arsenal despite being shelved in 2018.
Russian Navy Deploys 24 Ships Capable of Carrying Kalibr Missiles to Black Sea
On November 21, nearly two dozen Russian ships were spotted in the Black Sea, including five equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, capable of launching up to 28 missiles in a single salvo. No enemy vessels were detected in the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainian Navy also reported two Russian ships in the Mediterranean, one of which is a Kalibr missile carrier. Russian forces had previously used Kalibr missiles in a large-scale strike on November 17, launching 90 drones and 120 missiles, including Kalibrs, from the Black Sea. Ukrainian forces intercepted 144 enemy targets, including Kalibr missiles. On the same day, Russian MiG-31K aircraft, carrying Kinzhal ballistic missiles, prompted a large-scale air alert in Ukraine as explosions were reported in Dnipropetrovsk. Russian Tu-95 bombers were also detected, likely launching X-101 missiles toward Ukraine. These ongoing attacks highlight Russia's continued reliance on advanced missile systems to target Ukraine's infrastructure and military assets.
Russian Military Base Struck by Ukraine’s ATACMS for First Time
Ukraine conducted its first strike using U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) on November 25, targeting the Kursk Vostochny air base in western Russia. The attack, reportedly carried out with cluster warheads, struck a parking area at the base, though it remains unclear if Russian aircraft were present. While Moscow has not confirmed the strike, a Russian blogger with alleged air force connections supported reports of ballistic missile attacks on the site. This follows a significant policy shift by U.S. President Joe Biden, who on November 17 authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-donated weapons for long-range strikes inside Russia, marking a departure from previous restrictions aimed at avoiding escalation. The White House had expressed concerns about the risk of Russia reverse-engineering advanced weapons but relented under international pressure to enhance Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Ukraine has increasingly used ATACMS to target Russian military infrastructure, including a strike on November 18 against the Russian Ministry of Defence's 67th arsenal. The recent strike highlights Kyiv’s growing capability to extend its operations into Russian territory.
After Latest Russian Strikes, Ukraine Wants New Air-Defense Systems
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging Western allies to provide advanced air defense systems following Russia's launch of its new "Oreshnik" hypersonic missile, which Moscow claims is unstoppable and unmatched globally. The missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and traveling thousands of kilometers, targeted Dnipro in a move marking a significant escalation after Kyiv recently used Western-supplied missiles to strike Russian territory. Zelensky criticized China's restrained response, calling it a mockery of global calls for restraint, and urged the international community to hold Russia accountable to deter further aggression. Kyiv remains reliant on Western weapons to counter the ongoing Russian invasion but faces increased tensions as Moscow warns that Western military support makes NATO countries legitimate targets for retaliation. Both sides are intensifying efforts to gain battlefield advantages ahead of Donald Trump's January inauguration, with Trump promising a rapid peace deal but offering no specific plan and repeatedly criticizing U.S. aid to Ukraine. Ukraine's defense minister is actively negotiating for systems capable of countering new Russian missile threats.
INDO-PACIFIC
Taiwan Allocated $2.2BN to Buy US Weapons
Taiwan plans to allocate NT$70.6 billion (US$2.2 billion) in 2024 for U.S. arms purchases, signaling its commitment to bolstering defense amidst rising tensions with China and addressing U.S. expectations for greater financial contributions to Taiwan’s security. Taiwan's defense ministry revealed it has signed contracts totaling NT$716.6 billion for 21 procurement projects, including short-range air defense missiles, radar upgrades, Abrams tanks, F-16V jets, HIMARS rocket systems, and Harpoon missiles, with payments scheduled through 2031. U.S.-Taiwan ties deepened during the Trump and Biden administrations amid intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, but Trump’s “transactional diplomacy” has prompted Taiwan to demonstrate its willingness to invest in its defense. Speculation of a US$15 billion weapons package under Trump’s incoming administration underscores Taiwan’s effort to address U.S. concerns. Delays in arms deliveries due to COVID-19 disruptions and global demand, such as for Stinger missiles, have drawn scrutiny, though production is gradually resuming. Taiwan’s defense spending reflects assessments of threats and lessons from global conflicts like Ukraine, reinforcing its strategic partnership with the U.S. against Beijing’s growing pressure.
In Case China Attacks Taiwan, US Plans Deployment of Missile Systems to Japanese Island
The U.S. military plans to establish temporary bases on Japan’s southern islands for missile deployments in the event of a Taiwan conflict, according to Kyodo News. A new Marine Littoral Regiment, designed for island-hopping operations, will deploy HIMARS rocket systems along the Ryukyu Islands, also known as the Nansei Islands, which stretch toward Taiwan. Japan’s military will provide logistical support, including fuel and ammunition. Additionally, the U.S. will station the Multi-Domain Task Force’s long-range fire units in the Philippines, where four new bases under a 2023 military deal are being readied. These include the Typhon missile system, capable of firing nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles. This enhanced U.S.-Japan-Philippines coordination aims to counter a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, reflecting the Pentagon’s preparation for a possible future war with China. The strategy underscores the U.S.’s intent to bolster alliances in the Indo-Pacific, despite the inherent risks of escalation, including nuclear conflict. Strengthening ties with Japan and the Philippines is seen as critical to this broader regional security framework.
If US Deploy Missile Systems in Japan, Russia May Deploy New Missile Units in Asia
The Pentagon is considering deploying missile units to Southeast Asia, particularly Japan, as a contingency in the event of a Chinese military action against Taiwan, according to reports from Japan’s Kyodo News. This would involve U.S. Marine Corps deployment of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). In response, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that Moscow might mirror the U.S. by sending medium- and short-range missiles to the Asia-Pacific region, potentially with China's support. Earlier this year, the U.S. deployed the Typhon missile system in the Philippines, capable of launching nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, raising concerns in both Russia and China. Ryabkov stated that Russia’s response would depend on U.S. actions, urging against the expansion of missile systems in the Pacific. He emphasized that Russia has no current restrictions on deploying its new hypersonic Oreshnik missile, which could reach speeds exceeding Mach 10. Ryabkov also reiterated Russia’s criticism of the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, warning it could lead to greater missile proliferation among nuclear powers.
GEOPOLITICS
US Vetoes UN Security Council Ceasefire Resolution on Gaza
The United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Wednesday that called for an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, citing concerns it would embolden Hamas. The resolution also demanded the unconditional release of hostages. Israel’s UN ambassador Danny Danon criticized the resolution as a "road map to more terror," and the U.S. emphasized linking any ceasefire to the release of hostages. The conflict, sparked by Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, has resulted in over 1,200 Israeli deaths and 43,985 fatalities in Gaza, per UN-verified figures. The war has displaced nearly all of Gaza's 2.4 million residents, creating a humanitarian catastrophe. Hamas condemned the U.S. veto, accusing Washington of complicity in the destruction in Gaza. The resolution also called for humanitarian aid and denounced the starvation of Palestinians. Diplomats expressed regret over the veto and hope that U.S. policy might shift during President Biden's final weeks in office, as seen in past precedents like the Obama administration’s stance on Israeli settlements.
NATO Officials Warn Companies to Prepare for Wartime Scenario
On November 25, NATO's top military official, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, urged companies to prepare for a "wartime scenario" by restructuring production and supply chains to reduce dependence on nations like China and Russia, highlighting vulnerabilities in critical areas such as energy, medicine, and rare earths. Bauer emphasized that economic resilience is as crucial as military strength in conflicts, citing Europe’s reliance on Gazprom and Chinese infrastructure as examples. Russia responded through Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who alluded to Russia's updated nuclear doctrine. Meanwhile, the U.S. officially confirmed Ukraine's use of U.S.-provided ATACMS to strike Russian targets, including in the Kursk region. National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby clarified the strikes were for immediate defensive needs but acknowledged updated guidance allowing such attacks. Bauer's comments, made during a Brussels think-tank event, stressed that safeguarding essential services against sabotage is critical for deterrence. The developments underscore increasing geopolitical tensions, with NATO prioritizing economic and military preparedness amid ongoing escalations in Ukraine and broader strategic rivalries.