End of October Bi-Weekly Update
LEAD STORIES
Does the US Military Now Have Authorization to Kill Americans on US Soil?
Ahead of the November 2024 elections, the U.S. military has reissued DoD Directive 5240.01, allowing the use of lethal force under specific "national security" conditions, raising concerns about its potential role during election-related unrest. Effective from September 27, 2024, the directive, which governs the Department of Defense's intelligence activities, now authorizes lethal force when assisting civilian law enforcement. While assassination is prohibited, the directive permits the use of force likely to result in serious injury or death if lives are in danger, with approval from the Secretary of Defense. This change marks a significant shift from the 2016 version, which primarily focused on intelligence collection with strong civil liberties protections. The reissued directive expands the military's role in domestic operations, sparking debate about its implications for civil disturbances during the upcoming election. The Posse Comitatus Act generally prohibits military engagement in domestic law enforcement, except in cases authorized by Congress or the Constitution, further complicating the directive’s potential application during periods of unrest.
GAI Study Reveals 50 Threats to Election Integrity
A new report by the Government Accountability Institute (GAI) identifies fifty threats to U.S. election integrity, focusing on issues such as “dark money,” lawfare operations, voter fraud, and election fraud. The report, highlighted on *The Drill Down* podcast by Peter Schweizer and Eric Eggers, examines how states manage voter rolls, including problems like outdated registrations and duplicate voters. Michigan, a key battleground state, has drawn attention for having counties with voter registration rates exceeding 100%, indicating that some names may not belong on the rolls. The report also reviews how rule changes made during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic may have weakened election security and could impact the 2024 election. Eggers, co-host and author of *FRAUD*, discusses past election rigging and how certain measures, like double voting, remain a concern. The GAI report suggests solutions to improve election integrity, including addressing “dark money” and refining election oversight, while warning that some of these unresolved issues may affect upcoming elections.
US Documents Leaked Showing Attack Plans by Israel on Iran
Senior American officials expressed deep concern on Saturday after two U.S. intelligence documents were leaked, reportedly detailing Israel's preparations for a potential strike on Iran. These documents surfaced via a Telegram account linked to Iran, but the U.S. Department of Defense and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on their authenticity. The leak coincides with Israel's preparations for a retaliatory strike against Iran following a missile attack on October 1. An unnamed senior Israeli official acknowledged the leak, emphasizing the seriousness with which Israel's defense establishment views the situation. The documents allegedly originated from a report by the U.S. Department of Defense's visual intelligence agency and highlighted recent activities at Israeli Air Force (IAF) bases, including movements of advanced munitions. They also noted intelligence, such as wiretaps, indicating that the IAF conducted exercises involving fighter jets and drones. This incident not only underscores close surveillance by U.S. intelligence on Israel's military actions but also reveals a significant security breach, allowing sensitive information to reach Iranian-affiliated entities. While U.S. officials deemed the situation "extremely serious," they believed it would not impact Israel's operational plans.
FBI Believes Israel Attack Plans Leak was from a Government Insider, Not Hacking
The FBI and Department of Defense are urgently investigating the leak of two highly classified intelligence documents concerning Israel’s potential retaliatory attack on Iran, which surfaced on a Middle Eastern Telegram channel. President Biden is "deeply concerned" over the breach, which involves documents produced by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency. These "Top Secret" documents were meant to be restricted from distribution to most foreign allies, except the "Five Eyes" countries. Investigators currently believe the leak originated from within the U.S. intelligence community, focusing on insider access rather than cyber intrusion. One document appears to have been scanned from a printed briefing book, narrowing down potential suspects. This method is similar to how former NSA contractor Reality Winner was caught in 2017 after printing a classified document and sending it to the media. The FBI, Pentagon, and other agencies are working to determine how the breach occurred and who had access to the sensitive information, with the investigation intensifying in recent days. UPDATE: New information indicates that the leak may have come from Ariane Tabatabai, a key figure in Obama’s Iranian nuclear deal and a senior Pentagon advisor, has been allegedly exposed as a covert asset tied to Tehran.
Trump Rally at Madison Square Garden Accused of Being the Same as Nazi Rally from 1939
Democrats and their media allies expressed concern when Donald Trump announced a rally at Madison Square Garden, fearing he would attract a large crowd on their home ground. In response, they pushed a narrative linking the event to a pro-Nazi rally held there in 1939, with Hillary Clinton accusing Trump of “re-enacting” that historical moment. Clinton referenced President Franklin Roosevelt's disapproval of neo-Nazis and fascists rallying in support of the German regime, warning of the dangers Trump poses to the country. Tim Walz, Kamala Harris's running mate, echoed this sentiment, drawing direct parallels between Trump’s rally and the 1930s event, suggesting Trump was aware of the implications. However, the actual rally, held on Sunday night, showcased a diverse lineup of speakers, including a Black woman who sang the national anthem, contradicting the narrative of it being a Nazi event. The lack of Nazi symbols at the rally highlighted the absurdity of the accusations, with the only such imagery present reportedly associated with Democrats.
President Biden Calls All Trump Supporters ‘Garbage’
President Joe Biden drew significant attention away from Vice President Kamala Harris's closing argument just a week before the election by denouncing American voters and labeling Trump supporters as "garbage." Ahead of Harris’s speech outside the White House, Biden criticized remarks made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at a Trump rally, where Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage." Biden stated, “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,” emphasizing his disapproval of Trump’s character and concern for the Latino community. While Biden initially claimed he would not attend Harris's event but would watch it, his comments prompted backlash from Trump’s camp. JD Vance, a Republican running mate for Trump, condemned Biden's remarks as an attack on half the country, calling it "disgusting." After the comments gained traction, the White House attempted to clarify that Biden was solely addressing Hinchcliffe, not the broader population of Trump supporters. The incident highlights ongoing tensions as both parties gear up for the upcoming election.
Trump Troll Dems by Showing Up to Presser in Garbage Truck After Biden Garbage Comment
Former President Donald Trump hosted a press conference from a garbage truck in Green Bay, Wisconsin, responding to President Joe Biden’s recent comment referring to Trump’s supporters as “garbage.” This remark came during a Zoom call with Voto Latino, where Biden reacted to comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's jokes made at a Trump rally. Dressed in a bright safety vest, Trump addressed reporters, stating that “250 million people” would be pleased with his vision to restore the nation, which he characterized as being in “serious decline.” He also lauded billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk as one of America’s “geniuses,” emphasizing the need to support such innovators. Trump reaffirmed his affection for Puerto Rico, insisting that he had done more for the island than anyone else, particularly during the hurricanes. He claimed Puerto Rico loves him, distancing himself from Hinchcliffe’s remarks, stating, “I don’t know anything about the comedian.” After facing criticism for his remarks, Biden clarified on X that his comment aimed at the “rhetoric” of Hinchcliffe, not at Trump’s supporters directly.
BORDER CRISIS
More ‘Diversity’ Migrants to Small American Towns if Kamala Harris Plan is Put in Place
Vice President Kamala Harris has endorsed expanding the Diversity Visa Lottery as part of the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021, a plan she praised during a recent interview. This act includes a pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11-22 million illegal immigrants currently in the U.S. and proposes increasing the number of Diversity Visas by 25,000, adding nearly one million immigrants per decade. The Diversity Visa Lottery, introduced in 1990, randomly allocates 55,000 visas annually to individuals from various countries, including those with terrorism concerns. Critics, such as the Heritage Foundation, label the act as radical, arguing it would blur the line between legal and illegal immigration, increase immigration costs, and weaken border security. The program has faced scrutiny due to cases like that of Sayfullo Saipov, who entered the U.S. through the lottery and later committed a deadly ISIS-inspired attack in New York City in 2017. The Citizenship Act, however, failed to pass Congress, but the debate surrounding the lottery and its impact continues.
VP Harris Says We Did ‘The Right Thing’ letting In Millions of Illegal Aliens
During a CNN town hall on Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris defended the Biden-Harris administration's approach to immigration, stating they did “the right thing” by allowing millions of undocumented immigrants to enter the U.S. This admission came as host Anderson Cooper questioned the administration's failure to secure various border initiatives, including an immigration bill that went unpassed while Democrats controlled both the House and Senate in the first two years of the administration. Harris noted that an executive order implemented earlier this summer had helped reduce immigration flows by over half, but Cooper pressed her on why such actions weren't taken sooner. He highlighted that many of the reductions were due to asylum claims processed through the administration's CBP One app. Harris explained that the administration initially sought a long-term legislative fix rather than short-term solutions. When asked if she wished they had acted sooner, she maintained that the administration's choices were correct, ultimately placing the blame for the ongoing border crisis on Congress.
NYC ‘Deports’ Thousands of Migrants Out of the State to Florida, Texas, and Illionois
New York City is sending some migrants back to Texas after receiving over 45,000 migrants bussed from the state. Through a voluntary program, NYC has issued more than 47,000 one-way tickets to various destinations, including 4,500 to Texas. Other top destinations include Illinois, Florida, Colorado, and parts of New York, with most migrants traveling by plane. The program, along with work authorization assistance and shelter stay limits, has reduced the number of asylum seekers relying on the city’s services. NYC officials emphasize that the tickets are purchased after consulting with migrants on their preferred destinations. Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s busing initiative, launched in April 2022, has relocated approximately 120,000 migrants to cities across the U.S., including over 45,900 to New York City. Abbott also highlighted Texas’s ongoing efforts to combat the violent Tren de Aragua gang, stating that law enforcement has begun arresting its members as part of efforts to secure the border and protect Texas communities
Haitian Migrants Shipped into Another Midwestern Town
Residents of Logansport, Indiana, are expressing concerns over a sudden influx of Haitian migrants that is straining local resources and impacting community safety. The town, with a population of about 18,000, has seen estimates of 3,000 to 5,000 new migrants, contributing to a county-wide increase of around 11,000. Mayor Chris Martin highlighted “assimilation issues” as a significant challenge. Local residents, including Nancy Baker and Candice Espinoza, reported troubling encounters with migrants, such as children being chased and individuals staring into homes, causing feelings of insecurity. The local school system has experienced a 15-fold increase in Haitian students since 2021, overwhelming teachers and resources, which has led some students, like Baker's daughter, to switch to online schooling due to inadequate attention. This situation is part of a broader trend linked to recent U.S. immigration policies that have granted temporary legal status to Haitian migrants. Local businesses, including Tyson Foods, are reportedly facilitating this influx to meet labor demands, complicating the integration process and further straining community resources, law enforcement, and housing availability.
United Nations’ Non-Profits to Facilitate Permanent Mass Migration
A new 75,000-square-foot mega-mall in Tapachula, Mexico, set to open in December, aims to facilitate industrial-scale illegal immigration to the U.S. southern border. Built with significant funding from various United Nations agencies and international NGOs, the facility reflects a long-term strategy for sustained U.S.-bound migration, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The mall will serve as a critical aid hub, providing cash cards, food, medical treatment, and legal counseling to migrants traveling from all continents. This project is part of a broader billion-dollar migration safety net established during President Joe Biden's administration, with record U.S. taxpayer contributions fueling the effort. The United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) and its partners will operate the mall, collaborating to meet the needs of incoming migrants. Additionally, the UN's "Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan" allocates billions for assistance in Latin America, ensuring continued support for the migratory flow toward the U.S. border. This expansive network highlights a complex interplay between U.S. policies and international migration dynamics, largely funded by American taxpayers.
Socialist Columbian President Demands US Welcome More Migrants After Condemning its ‘Ethnic Discrimination’
Colombian President Gustavo Petro accused the United States of “ethnic discrimination” against illegal migrants and blamed it for the ongoing Venezuelan migrant crisis during his speech at the UN's COP16 in Cali. Petro described U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's socialist regime as a “blockade” that exacerbated the crisis, which he claimed has forced millions to flee. He did not hold the Maduro regime accountable, asserting that the crisis was a consequence of U.S. actions rather than the collapse of Venezuela's economy under socialism. With nearly 8 million Venezuelans having fled, Petro argued that the U.S. creates a narrative that only values migrants for their labor, dismissing their rights. He emphasized that the U.S. should recognize the humanity of these migrants rather than treating them as disposable laborers. Petro's remarks echoed sentiments previously expressed by Maduro, who has similarly attributed the crisis to U.S. sanctions while ignoring the detrimental impact of socialist policies. This narrative aligns with ongoing efforts to shift blame for the crisis away from the Venezuelan government and onto foreign influences.
BOHICA!
$400 Million in New Military Aid to go to Ukraine
While people devasted from Hurricane Helene are supposed to be receiving $750, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced another $400 million aid package for Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv on Monday, reaffirming U.S. support just weeks before the U.S. presidential election. The package includes munitions, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons. Austin’s visit comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pushes for greater Western support, including NATO membership and the lifting of restrictions on long-range weapon use. Austin emphasized solidarity with Ukraine, warning of the consequences of allowing Russia’s aggression to prevail. He did not comment on Zelensky’s call for NATO membership or his proposed "victory plan." Meanwhile, South Korean intelligence reported that North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to support Russia in Ukraine. Austin condemned the involvement of other autocratic regimes like North Korea and Iran in backing Russia. As Austin visited, Russia continued aerial bombardments across eastern and southern Ukraine, with at least nine killed in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, including strikes on a kindergarten and the logistics hub of Pokrovsk, a critical target for Russian forces.
Russian Frozen Assets Worth $20BN to be Sent by US to Ukraine
The United States has announced a $20 billion allocation to Ukraine, backed by immobilized Russian assets. This move is part of the G7's broader initiative to provide $50 billion to support Ukraine's defense and resilience amid its conflict with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the U.S. decision, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stating the funds would be repaid using proceeds from frozen Russian assets. This shifts the financial burden onto Russia rather than American or European taxpayers. The G7 nations continue negotiating the package, with finalization expected soon. The European Parliament has also pledged approximately $38 billion (€35 billion), and the UK has committed $3 billion. Concerns over the immobilization of Russian assets, particularly in Europe, have been addressed, with Yellen expressing confidence in the security of the loan. The Biden administration aims to ensure steady support for Ukraine, even amid potential political fluctuations in the U.S., while Hungary's opposition to extending EU sanctions adds a layer of complexity to the ongoing negotiations.
$3BN Loan from Russian Frozen Assets Announced by Britain for Ukraine
Britain has announced a nearly $3 billion loan to Ukraine, aimed at supporting its defense against Russia's invasion. The $2.94 billion will come from profits generated by Russian assets frozen under British sanctions and aligns with a broader G7 initiative to provide Ukraine with $50 billion for military, budgetary, and reconstruction needs. This funding is in addition to Britain's ongoing annual military aid of nearly $3.9 billion to Ukraine. The announcement was made by Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Defense Secretary John Healey during their visit to Ukrainian soldiers receiving training in Britain. Reeves emphasized that the UK’s support for Ukraine is unwavering, stating that a secure Ukraine equates to a secure United Kingdom. The G7 nations, including Britain, France, Germany, and the United States, had previously committed to making this funding available by leveraging revenues from the frozen Russian assets, which have been a key part of the largest sanctions package ever imposed on a major economy. Healey remarked that the funding will directly assist Ukraine’s defense while impacting Putin's war efforts.
During an F1 Race, PA News Station Apologizes for Showing Presidential Election ‘Results’
A Pennsylvania news station, WNEP, faced backlash after inadvertently displaying U.S. presidential election results during its broadcast of a Formula 1 race. The erroneous graphics showed Vice President Kamala Harris winning against former President Donald Trump with 52% of the vote compared to Trump's 47%. The test results indicated that Harris received 3,293,712 votes, while Trump garnered 2,997,793. Viewers were puzzled by the unexpected announcement, prompting WNEP to clarify that the displayed numbers were part of a routine equipment test and should not have been visible. The station issued an apology, stating, “Those numbers should not have appeared on the screen,” and emphasized that the figures were randomly generated to help prepare for election night. WNEP assured the public that measures have been implemented to prevent a recurrence. Notably, no actual votes in Pennsylvania are counted until after 8 PM on election day. WNEP, owned by Tegna Inc., has leadership with past ties to Democratic donations, raising some eyebrows regarding potential biases.
WAR (and rumors of war)
US MILITARY
Defense Contractors Lockheed and Raytheon Win Full-Production of Javelin Panels for US and Baltic States
Raytheon and Lockheed Martin have secured $267 million in contracts for full-rate production of the Javelin Lightweight Command Launch Units (LWCLU) for the U.S. Army and foreign military sales to Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. The LWCLU, part of the Javelin anti-tank weapon system, enhances target detection and recognition, being 30% smaller, 25% lighter, and compatible with any variant of the shoulder-mounted weapon. The Javelin Joint Venture (JJV), a collaboration between Raytheon and Lockheed, will handle production until 2028. JJV leaders highlighted the LWCLU’s role in increasing mobility and accelerating delivery times. The JJV has already delivered over 50,000 Javelin missiles and 12,000 reusable command launch units to various military customers. In August 2023, JJV accepted a $1.3 billion contract for Javelin missiles as part of a $7.2 billion primary contract from May 2023, ensuring procurements through 2026. These contracts reflect ongoing U.S. and allied demand for the Javelin system, known for its fire-and-forget technology and utility in day and night operations.
Ominous Message Sent to Iran After B-2 Spirit Bombers Hit Targets in Yemen
The Pentagon announced a significant strike involving B-2 Spirit stealth bombers against Houthi underground weapon storage sites in Yemen, marking the first operational mission for the bombers in years and their inaugural strike in Yemen. This operation aimed to send a powerful message to the Houthis and their backer, Iran, amidst rising tensions, particularly with an anticipated Israeli retaliation. The strike targeted five fortified locations in Houthi-controlled areas, highlighting the U.S. military's ability to hit deeply buried facilities. The operation was authorized by President Biden to counter the Houthis’ illegal attacks on U.S. and international vessels in critical waterways, which threaten regional stability and commerce. The B-2's capacity to deploy the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) enhances the strike's significance, as the MOP is designed for penetrating hardened targets, potentially including Iranian military sites. The timing of the operation aligns with escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, reinforcing the U.S. commitment to defend its interests and deter hostile actions in the region.
GAO Report Shows US Army Watercraft Fleet Readiness Falls Below 40%
The U.S. Army’s watercraft fleet is facing serious readiness challenges, with less than 40% of vessels mission-capable for 2024, according to a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The Army’s fleet, crucial for transporting personnel and supplies in remote areas without ports, initially aimed for a 90% readiness rate amid growing Indo-Pacific tensions. However, maintenance issues have significantly impacted the fleet, with one vessel out of service for over five years. Readiness rates have steadily declined from 70% in 2021 to nearly 50% in 2023. The GAO warned that these low mission-capable rates hinder both current operations and the training of watercraft personnel. The report recommended that the Army develop a mitigation plan to address capability gaps, assess costs and benefits of potential actions, and implement an integrated strategy to tackle persistent maintenance challenges affecting the fleet’s readiness. The decline underscores the fleet’s inability to meet near-term mission demands, critical to U.S. military logistical operations in austere environments.
THAAD Anti-Missile System Up and Running in Israel According US Officials
The U.S. has deployed its advanced THAAD anti-missile system to Israel, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed, though he did not specify if it is operational yet. Speaking before his visit to Ukraine, Austin emphasized that the system could be activated quickly to support Israel, which is preparing a potential response to Iran's October 1 missile attack that involved over 180 missiles. President Biden, who opposes Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and energy sites, has urged Israel to carefully calibrate its retaliation to avoid escalating the conflict further. While Biden acknowledged he understands Israel’s plans, he also sees a chance to halt the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran. Austin, however, remained cautious, noting that Israel’s decision on how to respond is its own, and that perceptions of the strike could differ between Israel and Iran. The U.S. continues to advocate for de-escalation in hopes of preventing a broader Middle Eastern conflict.
Argentinian F-16s Procured from Denmark to Get US Missiles & Bombs
The U.S. State Department has approved a potential $941 million sale of missiles, bombs, electronic systems, and other equipment to support Argentina’s fleet of 24 F-16 Block 10/15 aircraft recently acquired from Denmark. Announced by the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency, Argentina’s request includes 36 AIM-120 C-8 AMRAAM missiles, two AMRAAM guidance sections, 102 MK-82 general-purpose bombs, 50 MXU-650 air foil groups for GBU-12 laser-guided bombs, 102 FMU-152A/B programmable fuses with FZU-63A/B systems, and 50 computer control units MAU-169L/B. Non-major defense equipment (non-MDE) items will include weapons support gear, explosive components, AN/ARC-238 radios, Joint Mission Planning Systems, inert fuses, a Ground Support System for Link-16, and various cryptographic and communications security devices. Lockheed Martin, based in Fort Worth, Texas, will be the primary contractor for this sale, which aims to enhance Argentina’s defense capabilities and strengthen U.S.-Argentina defense cooperation.
FORTRESS EUROPE
UK Carrier Strike Group Set for Global Deployment in 2025, First Since Falklands War
A Royal Navy task group, led by HMS *Prince of Wales*, is preparing in the North Sea for a 2025 global deployment, the first of its kind since the Falklands War. The UK Carrier Strike Group has gathered off Scotland for Exercise Strike Warrior to confirm its operational readiness. The task force, commanded by Commodore James Blackmore, includes warships, submarines, F-35B Lightning jets, and support vessels. The exercise will test the group’s capabilities in warfare scenarios, including anti-submarine and air defense, with HMS *Portland* serving as a submarine hunter and HMS *Dauntless* providing air defense. Over two weeks, the task group will conduct flying operations with F-35B jets from 809 Naval Air Squadron, marking the squadron's first deployment at sea since its re-establishment. Collaboration with NATO warships will further enhance their readiness, testing tactics across various missions. Blackmore highlighted the significance of the training to validate the task force’s "Very High Readiness" status, ensuring it can command a fleet on short notice for future global operations.
After Unidentified Targets Breach Romanian Airspace, NATO Scrambles Fighter Jets
On Wednesday, two Romanian F-16s were deployed to investigate an unidentified aerial target detected near the Romanian-Ukrainian border, marking the third airspace violation in Romania within a week. The Romanian Defense Ministry reported that radars detected the target around 8:45 p.m. local time, tracking it toward Tulcea, located near the Danube River, which separates Romania from Ukraine. The target lost radar signal approximately 7 miles northeast of Tulcea at around 9 p.m. This region has been a focal point for Russian drone activity since the onset of the war in Ukraine, although officials did not confirm Russian involvement in this specific incident. A second target was detected shortly after, prompting further investigations. Recent incursions into Romanian airspace by small aerial objects have raised concerns over potential spillover effects from the Ukraine conflict, with officials emphasizing the changing nature of threats to NATO territory. The incidents have drawn attention to the necessity for a stronger allied response, reflecting heightened tensions between NATO and Russia amidst ongoing military activities in the region.
UK Defense Secretary Says UK ‘Not Ready to Fight’
British Defense Secretary John Healey has acknowledged that the UK military is unprepared for a major conflict, asserting that the country would struggle to deter an enemy if war broke out now. Healey described the British army, navy, and air force as having been "hollowed out" and "underfunded" over the past 14 years under Conservative Party leadership. Following the Labour Party's return to power in July, he expressed disappointment at the extent of the financial and operational deterioration of the forces. Healey emphasized that while the UK military is skilled at conducting operations, it is not adequately prepared for combat, which undermines its deterrence capabilities. He highlighted the need for NATO members, including the UK, to innovate and adopt new technologies, especially lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict, to enhance their military effectiveness. Despite these concerns, a Labour government spokesman maintained that the UK Armed Forces remain among the best globally and assured that a forthcoming Strategic Defense Review would address current threats and capabilities. Meanwhile, reports indicate that the upcoming UK budget is unlikely to increase funding for the Defense Ministry.
Norway to Receive AMRAAM Missiles to Boost Air Defenses
Norway has signed a 4 billion kroner ($367 million) agreement with the U.S. to acquire Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) to bolster its air defense capabilities, marking one of Norway's largest military procurements. Produced by RTX, the AMRAAM missiles, capable of engaging aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones, will replace older AIM-120B missiles with the advanced C version. Primarily designated for Norway’s NASAMS ground-based air defense, the missiles can also be used with F-35A fighter jets. Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram emphasized that the missiles will strengthen Norway’s ability to counter air threats, aligning with broader defense upgrades amid regional tensions and the ongoing Ukraine conflict. The acquisition is part of Norway's Long-Term Defense Plan, allocating 600 billion kroner ($60 billion) from 2024-2036 to enhance military capabilities, modernize systems, and expand personnel. This plan supports Norway’s goal of meeting NATO’s defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP, reinforcing its regional security commitment and NATO cooperation.
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
Officials Say Israel’s Plan to Attack ‘Ready’ and Will Likely Happen Before US Elections
Israeli officials have confirmed that a military response to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile attack, which involved about 200 missiles targeting Israel, is ready and expected before the U.S. election on November 5. Despite reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may heed U.S. pressure not to target Iranian oil or nuclear sites, Israeli sources say retaliatory strikes are imminent. The Biden administration has urged Israel to focus only on military infrastructure, fearing that attacks on energy or nuclear facilities could provoke Iran into retaliating against Gulf oil sites, potentially spiking crude prices. Iran, considering the October 1 attack a "win," has warned of a "decisive and regretful" response if Israel strikes. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed that Israel's retaliation will be "precise and deadly." As tensions escalate, Israeli media confirm that military targets have been selected, awaiting execution. The looming retaliation has been a topic of intense debate within Israel’s government, though officials stress it is not tied to the timing of the U.S. presidential election.
Israeli Officials Claim the Airstrikes on Iran Took Out All of Iran’s S-300 Air Defense Systems
Iran is currently assessing the aftermath of Israeli airstrikes conducted on Saturday in retaliation for a previous missile barrage on October 1. Israeli officials confirmed that among the targets were Iran's S-300 air defense systems, which suffered significant damage, with three of the four operational units reportedly destroyed. This degradation of Iran's air defenses may leave the country more vulnerable to future Israeli attacks. The operation, termed "Days of Repentance," involved around 100 Israeli jets launching missiles against various military installations, including missile and drone production sites, effectively disrupting Iran's military capabilities. While Iran claimed to have intercepted some missiles, assessments indicate that very few were actually downed. In response, Iranian officials have issued warnings of retaliation, although there is internal debate regarding the appropriate level of response, with some leaders emphasizing a cautious approach. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, acknowledged the strikes without committing to immediate retaliation. Meanwhile, Iraq has formally protested Israel's use of its airspace for the strikes, escalating regional tensions.
Rumors Swirling that Israel Hit Iran’s Secret Nuclear Sites, but No One Will Admit It
In a recent podcast episode, journalist Caroline Glick posited that Israel’s recent attack on Iranian military sites included strikes on undeclared nuclear facilities, though neither Israel, the U.S., nor the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will publicly acknowledge this. Glick, a former negotiator for the Israel Defense Forces, suggested that while Israel successfully targeted Iran’s air defenses and missile production sites, many felt the government missed an opportunity to conduct a more extensive strike. She specifically pointed to Parchin, a secret military base long suspected of involvement in Iran's nuclear program, which reportedly housed facilities for missile fuel mixing. Glick argued that other targets in the attack may have been similarly undeclared nuclear sites, allowing Israel to achieve broader strategic objectives against Iran while putting the Biden administration in a difficult position. The U.S. had previously opposed Israeli attacks on nuclear sites, but public acknowledgment of these sites would contradict their oversight efforts. Israeli spokesman David Mencer affirmed that Israel is fully aware of all Iranian threat
Russian IL-76 Cargo Aircraft Mistakenly Shot Down by Sudanese Rebels
In Sudan's North Darfur region, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accidentally shot down a civilian Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane, mistaking it for a Sudanese government bomber. The plane, operated by New Way Cargo, a U.A.E.-based carrier, was delivering cargo to the RSF. The incident occurred near Al Mahla when RSF commander Ali Rizkallah ordered his troops to fire on the aircraft, believed to be an "Antonov-type" bomber. A guided missile was used, leading to the destruction of the plane and the death of at least two crew members, likely Russian nationals. The cargo onboard was reportedly military equipment, despite the U.A.E.'s claims of providing only humanitarian aid to the RSF. The U.A.E.-linked airline has a history of transporting arms, including to forces in Libya. The RSF, which split from the Sudanese army in 2023, may have been unaware of the secret night flights organized by their leadership, resulting in the mistaken attack on their own supply plane.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
In Parliamentary Address. Zelensky to Unveil ‘Victory Plan’ for Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his "victory plan" to the Verkhovna Rada on Wednesday, outlining a strategy to end the war with Russia that began in February 2022. The five-point plan starts with Ukraine's invitation to join NATO, acknowledging that while membership may not be immediate, it sends a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin about his failing geopolitical ambitions. The other points include bolstering defense, implementing a non-nuclear deterrence strategy, strengthening Ukraine's economy, and ensuring post-conflict security in the Euro-Atlantic region. Zelenskyy emphasized Ukraine’s valuable resource deposits, such as uranium and lithium, as critical to the war and global competition. He also revealed that the plan contains three secret annexes and expressed hope that, if initiated now, the war could potentially end by next year.
NATO Gets Nuclear Ultimatum from Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a stark ultimatum to NATO, suggesting that Ukraine might seek nuclear weapons if it is not granted membership in the alliance. In a conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump last September, Zelensky stated that Ukraine would either join "some kind of alliance" or be "forced to pursue nuclear weapons," emphasizing that NATO is the only robust option available. Speaking in Brussels on October 17 alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, he outlined his "victory plan" in the ongoing war with Russia, though Rutte noted that the plan contained unresolved political and military issues. Zelensky's remarks signal a heightened urgency in Ukraine's push for security guarantees amid the ongoing conflict, which began on February 24, 2022. While NATO members have provided military and financial support, full membership has yet to be offered, primarily due to concerns about escalating tensions with Russia. Ukraine has been enhancing its bilateral ties with NATO countries and signed a security pact with Greece to secure additional assistance. Zelensky's comments reflect growing discontent with the current security arrangements, especially in light of Russia's aggression.
Ukraine Running Out of Troops According to the Spanish Media
A lack of manpower has become a critical issue for the Ukrainian army, leading to a gradual retreat from frontline positions as Russian forces advance, according to a report by El Pais. Journalists visiting Kurakhovo, a town currently held by Ukraine but located in the Russian-occupied Donetsk People's Republic, learned that Ukrainian forces might soon need to withdraw to avoid encirclement. An anonymous spokesperson from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry highlighted that the primary challenge facing the military is not a shortage of weapons but a lack of personnel, stating, "Nobody wants to go to the army." Interviews with several servicemen revealed widespread exhaustion and demoralization, with some soldiers holding positions for up to three months without rotation, compared to the previous practice of rotating every month or even every few days during earlier stages of the conflict. To address personnel shortages, Ukraine has lowered the draft age and tightened mobilization rules, resulting in nearly 60,000 criminal cases related to military abandonment since 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin has estimated Ukrainian losses at 50,000 troops per month, exacerbating the manpower crisis.
Ukrainian Desertion Rates Explodes as Troops Increasingly Refusing Orders
The Ukrainian prosecutor's office reported opening 51,000 cases of desertion in the first nine months of 2024, indicating a likely doubling of last year’s figures. The Times of London cited this data, noting that the number of soldiers abandoning their posts is significant amid ongoing conflict with Russia. Earlier reports from El Pais and Al-Jazeera cited figures of 45,000 and at least 30,000 desertions, respectively, highlighting a crisis in military personnel. As of January, Ukraine had an estimated 500,000 to 800,000 active-duty soldiers, plus 300,000 reservists, yet has faced heavy casualties. The situation prompted Kiev to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25, with U.S. politicians advocating for a further reduction to 18. Senator Lindsey Graham emphasized the urgency of increasing troop numbers, criticizing the current draft age, stating that all eligible men should serve. To bolster ranks, Ukraine has even allowed prisoners to leave jail in exchange for military service. One deserter noted that prison seemed preferable to military life, as it offers a defined release date.
Ukraine’s Zelensky Offers Russia a Step toward Negotiating Possible Ceasefire
In a surprising shift, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed a potential first step toward a ceasefire with Russia, suggesting both sides agree to halt aerial attacks on energy infrastructure and cargo ships. Speaking in Kyiv, Zelensky indicated that mutual restraint on energy targets could signal a readiness to end the war. He emphasized that stopping attacks on energy infrastructure could de-escalate the conflict, which has seen Russian strikes disable 60% of Ukraine’s power grid, leaving the country reliant on nuclear energy and European imports. In return, Ukraine has targeted Russian oil depots and military sites with drone attacks. Zelensky's offer comes as Ukraine faces a harsh winter with power shortages and as Russia continues to advance in the Donbass. The proposal marks a notable shift in Zelensky’s position, as he had previously refused negotiations with Russia as long as President Putin remained in power. This move may reflect Ukraine's growing desperation, while Western allies reportedly signal a preference for diplomatic solutions over further escalation.
Ukraine to Get 200 New Pilot Graduates from UK Courses
The Ukrainian Air Force is addressing the challenge of training pilots to operate Western fighter jets, particularly F-16s, amidst a significant push for these aircraft. The primary obstacle has been the lack of capacity in domestic facilities and the need to teach experienced combat pilots to fly a different type of jet while ensuring they are fluent in domain-specific Aviation English. Concurrently, a two-year training program for recent graduates from Kharkiv Air Force University took place in Great Britain, focusing on aviation terminology and light aircraft operation. British defense ministry official Luke Pollard announced that 200 Ukrainian specialists have completed this training and will soon be flying F-16s. However, these rookie pilots still need further training on jet trainers, requiring an additional 1.5 to 7 months before starting the standard F-16 training course, which lasts 9 to 12 months. Despite the lengthy process, the training initiative indicates that Ukraine aims to acquire a significantly larger number of aircraft than initially anticipated, with over 200 trained pilots already in the pipeline to support this effort.
Nuclear Deterrence Exercise Underway in Russia According to Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced a strategic nuclear deterrence exercise involving ballistic and cruise missile launches, emphasizing the importance of Russia's nuclear triad in securing national sovereignty and maintaining global nuclear balance. Given rising geopolitical tensions, Putin stated that Russia aims to modernize its strategic forces while avoiding a new arms race. He reaffirmed that nuclear weapon use would remain a last-resort measure for national defense. Russia's strategic forces are reportedly 94% equipped with advanced technology, including updated stationary and mobile missile systems with enhanced precision, shorter launch times, and improved anti-missile defense penetration. The Russian Navy is set to receive new atomic submarines, and strategic bombers will undergo modernization. NATO concurrently launched its own nuclear exercises, with thirteen member states participating in the "Steadfast Noon" drill involving 2,000 personnel and over 60 aircraft. The Kremlin criticized NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement as escalating tensions and countering nuclear non-proliferation principles. Recently, Putin proposed amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine to consider joint aggression with a nuclear state as grounds for nuclear response.
In a First, Ukraine Uses Long-Range Drones to Strike Chechnya
Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-appointed leader of Chechnya, has pledged to retaliate against Ukraine following a drone attack that struck a military training facility in Gudermes, marking the first such strike in the southern Russian republic. The attack targeted the Russian University of Special Forces, a center established by Kadyrov, which has trained over 47,000 troops for deployment in Ukraine. Kadyrov confirmed the attack caused no casualties but emphasized the need for vengeance, promising a response that Ukraine would "never even dream of." The incident symbolizes the broader conflict, as Ukraine increasingly employs long-range drones to strike deep into Russian territory, including areas like Gudermes, located about 650 miles from Kharkiv. Despite Kadyrov's staunch support for Moscow, he has openly criticized the Russian military's handling of the war, questioning the leadership's awareness of the battlefield realities. This drone strike highlights vulnerabilities in Russian air defenses and could potentially disrupt operations at a key training center for Russian forces, signaling a new phase in Ukraine's tactical capabilities.
INDO-PACIFIC
China Conducts Live-Fire Drills Near Island Closest to Taiwan
On Tuesday, China conducted a live-fire exercise around Niushan Island, the closest part of its territory to Taiwan, which Taipei described as part of Beijing's efforts to create a "deterrent effect." The Pingtan Maritime Safety Administration warned vessels to avoid the no-navigation zone due to live firing, while Taiwan's defense ministry noted the drills could be routine yet part of a broader strategy to enhance military pressure in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's military utilizes joint intelligence and surveillance systems to monitor Chinese activities, pledging to respond appropriately. This exercise follows China's Joint Sword-2024B drills around Taiwan on October 14. Additionally, Taiwan's defense ministry reported that China plans to launch a carrier rocket from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center, likely passing through Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Meanwhile, tensions have escalated following a recent transit through the Taiwan Strait by U.S. and Canadian warships, which China condemned as provocative. The U.S. Navy reiterated its commitment to freedom of navigation in the region amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
China Leading ‘Rapid Expansion’ of Nuke Arsenal According to US Intelligence
On Wednesday, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a new report titled "Nuclear Challenges 2024," detailing the state of global nuclear arsenals and focusing on countries with established nuclear programs, particularly those increasing or modernizing their stockpiles. The report highlights the advancements made by nations like North Korea, which is developing nuclear weapons with smaller yields and greater precision. However, the most significant concern is China's expanding nuclear arsenal under President Xi, which the DIA estimates could surpass 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, a sharp increase from the 500 currently deliverable warheads. This acceleration is primarily driven by strategic competition with the United States. The report underscores China's efforts to enhance its capabilities, including the development of theater-range delivery systems like the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile. As of mid-2023, there are approximately 9,585 nuclear warheads worldwide, with Russia and the U.S. holding the majority at 8,088. Additionally, India and North Korea have increased their stockpiles, while European powers France and the UK maintain a combined total of 515 operational nuclear warheads.
If North Korean Troops Fight in Ukraine, NATO warns of ‘Serious Escalation’
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that the potential deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia in Ukraine could lead to a "serious escalation" of the conflict, raising the likelihood of other countries sending troops. Rutte's comments came during a conversation with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, where he emphasized that such a deployment would violate existing sanctions. Following their discussion, Rutte stated that North Korean forces fighting alongside Russia would mark a significant escalation, highlighting the interconnected security concerns between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions. South Korea's Vice Foreign Minister, Kim Hong-kyun, condemned the potential troop dispatch as a violation of United Nations resolutions and a threat to security both domestically and internationally. Reports have emerged regarding the presence of North Korean troops in Russia, with estimates of forces ranging from 1,500 to as many as 12,000, which South Korea claims may include four full brigades. Meanwhile, Russia has neither confirmed nor denied the reports, with government spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasizing the partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang.
NATO, US Confirm North Korean Troops in Russia Preparing to Fight
After initially denying evidence, U.S. officials, NATO, and the Pentagon confirmed that thousands of North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia, likely for training. A senior Biden administration official indicated that this could signify President Putin's increasing desperation amid heavy losses in Ukraine, stating, "If Russia needs to turn to DPRK for manpower, that’s a sign of desperation." U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah echoed these concerns, noting that the presence of North Korean troops could escalate support for Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Estimates vary, with Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate claiming nearly 12,000 North Korean soldiers are in Russia, while South Korean intelligence suggests about 3,000 currently, with a potential increase to 10,000. These troops are reportedly undergoing training on modern military equipment, although their actual deployment on the battlefield remains unclear. The situation raises alarms about the potential for North Korean involvement in the conflict and reflects a broader strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea, with implications for both regional and global security.
North Korea Successfully Tests New Nuclear Capable ICBM
North Korea launched one of its most advanced missiles, potentially a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), following recent accusations that it’s sending troops to aid Russia in Ukraine. This missile launch, conducted shortly after U.S. and South Korean officials urged Pyongyang to recall its troops from Russia, is seen as both a demonstration of power and a distraction from these troop deployment allegations. Solid-fuel missiles, quicker to launch and harder to detect, have been a goal for Kim Jong Un, as they provide a tactical advantage. The missile reportedly reached an altitude of 7,000 kilometers and was airborne for 86 minutes, marking North Korea's longest test flight to date. This action, condemned by Japan and the U.S., violates UN sanctions and reflects North Korea's increasing alignment with Russia. Analysts suggest that this launch is a message to the U.S. ahead of its elections, underscoring the North's growing nuclear capabilities and solidifying its nuclear alliance with Moscow amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
GEOPOLITICS
Iran and Saudi Arabia to Hold War Game Exercises
Saudi Arabia recently conducted joint naval exercises with Iran and other nations in the Sea of Oman, according to a statement by Saudi defense ministry spokesman Brigadier General Turki al-Malki. This marks a significant development in the relationship between the two regional rivals, which severed diplomatic ties in 2016 but resumed them last year under a China-brokered agreement. Iranian state media had reported that the two nations were planning joint military drills in the Red Sea, but Malki clarified that no further exercises are being discussed at this time. The exercises follow reports of Iran participating in military drills in the northern Indian Ocean alongside Russia, Oman, and other nations, including Saudi Arabia as an observer. This increased military cooperation comes amid ongoing tensions in the region, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels launching attacks on ships in the Red Sea, in a purported show of support for Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
Israel at Risk of Losing Military Support as US Demands They Allow Humanitarian Aid into Gaza
The Biden administration has issued a rare ultimatum to Israel, demanding the facilitation of humanitarian aid into the besieged Gaza Strip or risk losing U.S. military support. This demand arises as Israel intensifies its offensive in northern Gaza, where recent airstrikes have targeted civilian sites, leading to severe humanitarian consequences, with tens of thousands facing hunger. U.S. officials report that essential supplies have been largely blocked for weeks, with only limited aid deliveries occurring. The administration has given Israel 30 days to increase aid shipments to 350 truckloads daily, a significant increase from recent numbers. A letter from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized the need for urgent action to reverse the decline in aid. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly considering a controversial plan to fully evacuate northern Gaza and cut off all resources, labeling any remaining civilians as militants. This situation reflects the ongoing tensions between U.S. calls for humanitarian assistance and Israeli military operations, amid rising casualties in Gaza, where estimates suggest 42,000 have died since the conflict escalated.
Alleging Russian Inference, Georgian President Won’t Recognize Results, Calls for Protests
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, who has distanced herself from the ruling Georgian Dream party, announced she will not recognize the results of the parliamentary elections held on October 26, alleging they were influenced by a "Russian special operation." In a statement made on October 27, she emphasized the importance of Georgia's European future and called for protests against what she termed a hybrid warfare tactic. Despite Georgian Dream celebrating an apparent electoral victory with 54.8% of the vote, opposition parties claimed fraud, asserting that the ruling party used intimidation tactics, leading to reports of violence and irregularities on election day. International observers, including from the OSCE and EU, noted significant violations, such as vote buying and voter intimidation, undermining the elections' credibility. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and EU officials echoed these concerns, demanding investigations into the reported irregularities. As opposition parties prepare to contest the results, tensions are rising in Georgia, which has faced criticism for perceived shifts toward pro-Russian policies under Georgian Dream's governance.