January 2026 Monkey Business

January 2026 Monkey Business

JANUARY 2026 MONKEY BUSINESS 

LEAD STORIES 

FBI Foils New Year’s Eve Terror Plot by Radical Leftist Group in Los Angeles 

Federal authorities have disrupted a planned New Year’s Eve attack in Los Angeles by a radical offshoot of the Turtle Island Liberation Front (TILF), arresting four individuals allegedly plotting coordinated bombings using improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The suspects, motivated by pro-Palestinian, anti-law-enforcement, and anti-government ideology, had targeted five locations across the city, including ICE agents and vehicles, according to statements from the FBI and U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi. A fifth individual was arrested in New Orleans for a related attack plot. TILF’s social media emphasizes “liberation through decolonization and tribal sovereignty,” claiming that Native Americans historically referred to North America as “Turtle Island” and promoting land reparations for Indigenous peoples. Video footage and posts from the group framed their campaign as resistance against “fascist colonizers” and American imperialism, rejecting conventional legal and political avenues. Authorities charged the suspects with conspiracy and possession of destructive devices, praising the coordinated federal response for preventing a potentially deadly attack and underscoring ongoing vigilance against domestic extremist threats. The investigation remains active as officials assess whether additional individuals or plots are linked to the group. 

Brown University Shooting: Person of Interest Released, Gunman Still At Large 

Authorities in Rhode Island have confirmed that the person of interest apprehended in connection with the Brown University classroom shooting has been released, and the gunman remains at large. The incident occurred late Saturday during a final exam review for a Principles of Economics class taught by Jewish professor Rachel Friedberg, when the shooter reportedly “yelled something unique” before opening fire with a handgun, killing two students and injuring nine others. The person of interest, a male from Wisconsin, had been taken into custody early Sunday at a hotel in Coventry, where police recovered a revolver and a small Glock with a laser sight. Authorities emphasized that he was not considered a suspect but was being evaluated in the investigation. Providence Police Chief Oscar Perez stated that officials are coordinating evidence collection and interviews, while Brown University President Christina Paxson confirmed the shelter-in-place order ended around 6:00 a.m. ET. Seven victims remain in stable condition, one is critical but stable, and one has been discharged. The shooting occurred on the eve of Hanukkah, a period of heightened religious significance, and comes amid global concerns about attacks on Jewish communities, highlighted by a recent deadly assault in Australia targeting a Hanukkah celebration. Brown’s campus policy prohibits firearms, making the attack a rare breach of campus security despite extensive surveillance coverage. 

Father and Son Identified in Sydney Hanukkah Terror Attack 

Australian authorities have identified the suspects in Sunday’s Hanukkah shooting at Bondi Beach, Sydney, as a 50-year-old father and his 24-year-old son. The father was killed at the scene, while the son remains hospitalized in critical condition and is expected to face criminal charges. Police Commissioner Mal Lanyon confirmed that no other individuals are believed to have been involved and urged the public against acts of retaliation, emphasizing the need for calm. The attack, targeting hundreds of Australian Jews celebrating Hanukkah, has been officially classified as both terrorism and antisemitism. Investigators noted that the older suspect legally owned six firearms through a gun club and recreational hunting license, all of which were recovered from the scene and his property. In response, New South Wales Premier Chris Minns signaled plans to tighten gun regulations to restrict access to high-powered weapons, while assuring citizens that law enforcement would safeguard religious communities. Among the victims was Rabbi Eli Schlanger, who had previously warned Prime Minister Anthony Albanese against policies he believed would endanger Australian Jews. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also criticized Albanese’s support for a Palestinian state, calling it encouragement for antisemitic violence. The investigation continues as authorities prepare charges against the surviving suspect. 

Australian Police Intercept Suspected Threat Near Bondi Days After Terror Attack 

Australian counterterrorism police intercepted a vehicle carrying five Middle Eastern men in Liverpool, Sydney, four days after the deadly Bondi Beach terror attack, amid heightened national security concerns. According to local media, officers deliberately rammed the vehicle on Campbell Street to stop and arrest its occupants after receiving intelligence suggesting a possible violent act was being planned. NSW Police said Tactical Operations units acted cautiously given the sensitive security environment following Sunday’s attack at a Hanukkah celebration in Bondi, which killed 15 people and injured more than 40, ranging from children to the elderly. Authorities have described that attack as an antisemitic terrorist incident inspired by radical Islamist ideology. While police confirmed the operation was intelligence-driven, officials stressed it remains unclear what the men’s intentions were or whether they posed an imminent threat to Bondi Beach. The dramatic intervention underscored the elevated alert level across New South Wales as authorities seek to prevent potential follow-on attacks and reassure the public. The incident has renewed debate in Australia over domestic security, intelligence response thresholds, and broader policy issues tied to extremism and migration, as law enforcement agencies face pressure to act decisively while avoiding premature conclusions as investigations continue. 

Trump Highlights “America First” Agenda in National Address 

President Donald Trump delivered a roughly 20-minute national address Thursday, reviewing his administration’s achievements as the first anniversary of his election approaches. He outlined upcoming policy measures, including plans to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair supportive of lowering interest rates. Trump emphasized foreign policy successes, claiming to have ended eight wars in ten months, eliminated the Iranian nuclear threat, and concluded the war in Gaza, asserting he had brought historic peace to the Middle East. Domestically, he highlighted border security, halted inflation, rising wages, and lower prices, portraying the nation as strong, respected, and poised for unprecedented economic prosperity. Trump also criticized prior administrations, accusing them of looting government institutions and exploiting taxpayers, framing his tenure as a decisive turn toward prioritizing American interests. The address reinforced his “America First” agenda, blending economic, security, and foreign policy messaging aimed at consolidating political support ahead of his one-year election anniversary. 

Trump Claims Economic Turnaround, Blames Biden in National Address 

President Donald Trump delivered a national address touting his administration’s economic achievements and blaming the previous Biden administration for the affordability crisis. Trump cited high inflation under Biden, claiming prices for cars, gasoline, hotels, and airfares had surged dramatically, and argued that his policies have reversed these trends, bringing costs “down fast.” He highlighted $18 trillion in negotiated investments, improvements in border enforcement with drug flows reportedly down 94%, and efforts against what he described as radical influences in schools. Trump also emphasized foreign policy successes, including ending eight wars in ten months, neutralizing the Iran nuclear threat, and ending the Gaza conflict. Looking ahead, he pointed to upcoming national celebrations and global events such as the World Cup and Olympics, claiming the U.S. is now “the hottest country anywhere in the world.” As part of his address, he announced a $1,776 “warrior dividend” from tariffs to be sent to military members for Christmas. Trump concluded by asserting that inflation is halted, wages are rising, and America is stronger and more respected than ever. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer quickly countered on social media, arguing that prices remain high, unemployment is rising, and tariffs continue to burden Americans. 

Justice Department Publishes Massive Epstein Files Release, Including New Clinton Photos 

The Department of Justice released hundreds of thousands of pages of documents related to the late convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein on Friday, including previously unseen photos of former President Bill Clinton with Epstein and accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche confirmed that roughly 1,200 victims have been identified, with all names and identifying information redacted to protect them. Additional redactions were applied to government officials and politically connected individuals. The release, conducted under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, includes flight logs, client lists, a mostly redacted list of approximately 200 masseuses, new photographs, and evidence files from the case against Maxwell. Blanche emphasized that further documents — “several hundred thousand” pages — will be released in the coming weeks, with ongoing reviews to ensure victim privacy and protection of sensitive information. The Justice Department framed the disclosure as part of its commitment to transparency and adherence to the law, with oversight led by Attorney General Pam Bondi and under President Trump’s administration. The timing and scope of the release have drawn attention, given the inclusion of high-profile figures and potential links to ongoing investigations. 

Nigeria Signals Ongoing Joint Strikes with U.S. After Christmas Day Bombardment 

Nigeria signaled that further military strikes against jihadist groups are likely following a Christmas Day bombardment by U.S. forces in the country’s north, which Abuja described as a joint operation approved by President Bola Tinubu. Nigerian and U.S. officials said the strikes targeted militants linked to the Islamic State group, though specific targets and casualty figures were not disclosed. The operation comes as Nigeria grapples with overlapping security crises, including a long-running jihadist insurgency in the northeast and escalating violence by armed gangs in the northwest. U.S. Africa Command said multiple ISIS-linked fighters were killed in Sokoto State, while residents reported surprise and confusion, with some strikes hitting areas not previously seen as militant strongholds. Analysts noted uncertainty over whether the targets were linked to Lakurawa, a loosely defined armed group sometimes associated with Islamic State Sahel Province. The strikes followed diplomatic tensions after President Donald Trump framed Nigeria’s violence as persecution of Christians, a characterization rejected by Abuja but which nonetheless deepened security cooperation. Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar confirmed intelligence-sharing with Washington and said further joint operations were possible, stressing the campaign was ongoing, government-approved, and not directed at any religion, even as public opinion inside Nigeria remained sharply divided. 

Russian Cargo Ship Sinking in Mediterranean Allegedly Involved Nuclear Submarine Reactor Components 

A new report from Spanish outlet La Verdad, cited by The Maritime Executive, claims that the Russian cargo ship Ursa Major, which sank in December 2024 off Spain’s southeastern Mediterranean coast, was transporting undeclared components for two VM-4SG nuclear submarine reactors, potentially bound for North Korea. The ship reportedly suffered multiple explosions in its engine room and a 20-inch hole in the hull, suggesting an external kinetic event. Spanish authorities initially questioned the captain about large, tarped objects on deck, which he described inconsistently—as icebreaker components, empty containers, and later “manhole covers.” Investigators later identified them as reactor casings for Soviet-era VM-4SG submarines, each weighing roughly 65 tons. The vessel’s apparent destination, Vladivostok, may have been a cover, while analysts speculate the components were destined for North Korea’s nascent nuclear submarine program, which recently unveiled its first ballistic-missile submarine potentially incorporating Russian reactor technology. The incident follows North Korea’s naval expansion and is seen as part of broader Russia–North Korea strategic cooperation. The shipowner characterized the sinking as terrorism, but the exact actor behind the strike—and under whose authority it was carried out—remains unknown, raising broader concerns about covert actions targeting proliferation-sensitive nuclear materials in international waters.

US – VENEZUELAN TENSIONS 

Pentagon Expands Southern Spear Operations with Advanced Airpower in Caribbean 

The Pentagon is rapidly enhancing Operation Southern Spear, initially a counter-narcotics mission, into a broader posture capable of confronting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his cartel networks. Recent deployments include Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) aircraft—HC-130J Combat King II planes and HH-60W Jolly Green Giant II helicopters—arriving in Puerto Rico from bases in Georgia and Japan, alongside EA-18G Growler electronic attack jets and soon-arriving USAF F-35As. KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refuelers have begun operations out of the Dominican Republic, complementing KC-46 Pegasus tankers stationed in the U.S. Virgin Islands for months, increasing on-station time and sortie rates for tactical aircraft. These moves collectively strengthen U.S. capability for sustained air combat and rapid rescue operations over hostile territory, a critical factor as Trump administration officials signal readiness to target cartels inland. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt emphasized that President Trump seeks to avoid a prolonged war while maintaining pressure to curb illegal drug trafficking. Forward-deploying tankers and specialized CSAR assets not only expand operational reach but also provide strategic flexibility and resilience in case of aircrew losses. Analysts note that the scale and sophistication of the build-up represent a major shift from previous U.S. capabilities in the Caribbean, signaling a potential escalation in both tactical readiness and strategic signaling toward Venezuela and the region. 

US Pressure Paralyzes Venezuelan Oil Exports Amid Naval and Cyber Operations 

At least five supertankers, including a Russian vessel carrying crude for Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA, turned back Monday after initially heading to Venezuelan ports, Reuters reports. The course changes follow the recent US naval seizure of a Venezuelan tanker and intelligence that further Trump-authorized interdictions are planned. Analysts note that while Washington frames its Caribbean military presence as counter-narcotics operations, it effectively targets Venezuela’s oil reserves, leaving exports largely paralyzed except for Chevron shipments operating under US authorization. Concurrently, PDVSA suffered a major cyberattack, reportedly coordinated with foreign actors, temporarily disabling key systems and suspending cargo deliveries, though the company claims recovery efforts are underway. Sources indicate the disruption persists, with millions of barrels of oil and fuel stranded at sea. Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Yvan Gil condemned US actions as “illegal and aggressive piracy.” The combination of military pressure, sanctions enforcement, and cyber operations has created a near-total standstill of Venezuela’s oil logistics, underscoring Washington’s ability to exert economic leverage over Caracas while signaling the strategic risks to vessels servicing the country’s oil industry. 

Trump Orders Blockade of Venezuelan Oil Tankers Amid Escalating Military Pressure 

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday a “TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, intensifying U.S. pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s government. The move follows last week’s U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker and a months-long military buildup in the Caribbean, including strikes on 25 vessels that have killed at least 95 people. Trump framed the blockade as a response to Venezuela allegedly using oil to fund drug trafficking and other crimes, while White House officials indicated the broader aim is to compel Maduro to yield Venezuelan oil, land, and assets to the U.S., though the legal basis remains unclear. Venezuela’s government condemned the action, with Maduro claiming the nation has “proven to be strong” against U.S. aggression. The U.S. maintains a significant naval and aerial presence in the region, including an aircraft carrier, amphibious ships, P-8 Poseidons, and helicopters, providing monitoring and enforcement capabilities. Analysts note Venezuela exports nearly 850,000 barrels of oil daily, mostly to China, with some to the U.S. through Chevron and Cuba. The announcement also referenced a designation of the Venezuelan regime as a “foreign terrorist organization,” though the country remains formally outside the U.S. State Department’s state sponsor of terrorism list, making the move highly unusual. 

Venezuela Vows Full Defense Against US Oil Blockade 

Venezuela’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López declared on Wednesday that the country will defend its sovereignty “at any cost” in response to the US decision to block all oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuelan ports, framing the move as an open act of aggression and a violation of the UN Charter. Speaking on state television, Padrino López emphasized that the national armed forces would protect Venezuela’s rights in airspace and territorial waters without being provoked, warning that the blockade endangers not only the nation but regional stability and global energy markets. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez reinforced the stance on social media, asserting that Venezuela’s oil belongs to its people and will not be “given free or stolen” to any foreign power. She stressed that the country would maintain independent energy relations while continuing to defend its homeland alongside President Nicolás Maduro. The tensions follow US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Tuesday of a “total and complete blockade” targeting sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, which Maduro’s government condemned as piracy after the seizure of a Venezuelan tanker off its coast on December 10. Caracas has formally raised the issue with the UN Security Council, calling for international recognition and action against what it describes as a belligerent US policy.

Maduro Appeals to Colombia as US Threats Escalate 

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro issued an urgent call for military solidarity from Colombia on Wednesday, framing regional unity as the “greatest guarantee” of peace and sovereignty amid sharply rising tensions with the United States. Speaking directly to Colombian social movements and the armed forces, Maduro urged alignment with Venezuela to deter foreign intervention, emphasizing that any attempt to impose a puppet government would fail. His appeal comes after a series of confrontational moves from Washington, including US President Donald Trump’s accusations that Venezuela has stolen American oil, land, and assets—charges Maduro denounced as “warmongering” and a pretext for regime change. Maduro warned that such an imposed government would betray Venezuela’s Constitution and wealth, effectively turning the country into a colony. The standoff escalated further Tuesday when Trump threatened to designate Maduro’s government as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and highlighted on Truth Social an unprecedented US naval presence encircling Venezuela. Trump described the fleet as “the largest Armada ever assembled in the history of South America” and claimed it would grow until Venezuela returned American resources. Maduro framed the confrontation as a test of regional unity and sovereignty, appealing to Colombia to stand with Venezuela against what he portrayed as aggressive and colonialist US ambitions. 

Trump Warns Maduro Amid U.S. Military Buildup and Oil Seizures 

President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Monday, signaling that any “tough” actions against the United States would be his last. Speaking after announcing a new “Trump-Class” battleship, Trump stressed that Maduro could “do whatever he wants,” but cautioned that the massive U.S. armada in the southern Caribbean—including the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier—positions Washington to respond decisively. When asked whether the U.S. aims to remove Maduro, Trump deflected, framing it as Maduro’s choice, though he suggested it would be prudent for him to step aside. The remarks come as the administration has intensified its pressure campaign on Caracas, combining military deployments, the targeting of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, and the seizure of vessels transporting crude to countries like Iran. Trump confirmed that oil from confiscated ships would be retained by the U.S., either for sale or for strategic reserves. The warning underscores a broader strategy of economic and military leverage designed to deter Maduro while signaling to the international community the U.S. commitment to curbing Venezuelan oil exports and enforcing sanctions. 

Russia Reaffirms Support for Venezuela Amid U.S. Caribbean Blockade 

Russia has reiterated its full backing of Venezuela as U.S. naval forces enforce a blockade in the Caribbean, targeting alleged drug traffickers and oil tankers. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke with his Venezuelan counterpart Yvan Gil, expressing “serious concern” over Washington’s military buildup, warning it could “lead to far-reaching consequences for the region and create a threat to international maritime navigation.” The U.S. has seized multiple tankers and destroyed boats it claims were smuggling narcotics, while President Donald Trump has hinted at potential land strikes. Venezuela has condemned the actions as “piracy” and accused the U.S. of attempting to install a “puppet government.” President Vladimir Putin publicly voiced solidarity with Venezuela, affirming support for President Nicolás Maduro’s government in defending national sovereignty. Earlier this month, China also backed Caracas, opposing “all acts of unilateralism and bullying.” The situation highlights rising tensions in the Caribbean, with major powers signaling alignment with opposing sides amid U.S. efforts to pressure Maduro and curb illicit trafficking. 

U.S. Seizes Venezuelan Oil Tanker in International Waters, Escalating Tensions with China 

U.S. forces conducted an armed takeover of the Venezuelan crude oil tanker Centuries, reportedly carrying up to two million barrels to China, marking the third such operation this month. The seizure involved Coast Guard and Navy personnel, including MH-60T helicopters and a Maritime Security Response Team, targeting oil owned by China-based VSatau Tijana Oil Trading. The operation drew sharp condemnation from Beijing and Caracas, with both governments denouncing it as a violation of international law and piracy at sea. Analysts view the incident as part of a broader U.S. strategy to exert pressure on China and global trade, leveraging Western maritime dominance to disrupt energy and industrial shipments without direct military engagement. Past precedents include U.S. interdictions of Chinese civilian cargo en route to Iran, raising concerns about attacks on dual-use goods in international waters. The Centuries’ seizure, unlike previous tankers, involved a vessel not explicitly sanctioned, reflecting an escalation in targeting perceived sanction circumvention. In response, China has strengthened energy diversification through renewables, nuclear power, and overland pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, and explored the Arctic Northern Sea Route for oil exports. Analysts speculate Beijing could consider naval escorts for Venezuelan tankers in South America, though no deployments have been confirmed, highlighting growing geopolitical tensions in global energy and maritime security. 

Chinese Tankers Continue Venezuelan Oil Runs Amid U.S. Blockade and Seizures 

Chinese-flagged tankers are pressing ahead with Venezuelan oil shipments despite a U.S.-imposed blockade and a campaign of tanker seizures. Lloyd’s List reports that the VLCC Thousand Sunny is expected at Venezuela’s Jose Terminal in mid-January, while the Xing Ye is positioned off French Guiana awaiting loading. Both vessels are unsanctioned and have long transported Venezuelan crude to China, with ownership details undisclosed. The standoff comes as President Donald Trump escalates maritime enforcement to cut Caracas’s oil revenues, linking them to drug trafficking and crime, while Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro condemned the blockade as illegal and irrational, deploying gunboats to escort commercial shipments. U.S. actions have already included the seizure of the Panama-flagged Centuries and VLCC Skipper, along with pursuit of the Bella 1. Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA is reducing Orinoco Belt output by roughly 25% due to storage constraints. Internationally, China and Russia have condemned U.S. actions at the U.N., calling the blockade aggressive and destabilizing. How the U.S. enforces the blockade against the Thousand Sunny and Xing Ye in the coming weeks could determine whether the standoff escalates into a broader geopolitical confrontation. 

Trump Claims U.S. Strike Inside Venezuela Amid Expanding Caribbean Military Presence 

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed last week that the U.S. carried out a strike inside Venezuela against a facility allegedly used by drug traffickers, adding new details at a Mar-a-Lago news conference but providing no independent verification. Trump said the attack targeted a Venezuelan “implementation area” linked to drug shipments and followed prior strikes on drug-running vessels, which U.S. officials say have destroyed over two dozen boats and prevented thousands of potential casualties. While Trump did not clarify whether the operation was conducted by the military or the CIA, sources later reported to CNN that a CIA drone strike targeted a remote dock associated with the Tren de Aragua cartel, with no casualties, and U.S. Special Operations Forces provided intelligence support. The claim coincides with a growing U.S. military footprint in the Caribbean, including MC-130J Commando II aircraft, CV-22B Ospreys, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and E-11A BACN nodes deployed to Puerto Rican airbases. This buildup complements ongoing efforts to interdict Venezuelan oil shipments under a U.S. blockade, which has already seized two sanctioned tankers, drawing Russian criticism. Analysts note that while the strike against drug infrastructure represents an escalation of pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, much about the operation remains unverified, raising questions about intent, capabilities, and the potential for broader regional conflict.

US Military Near-Miss with JetBlue Highlights Civilian Risk Amid Venezuela Operations 

A US Air Force aerial refueling tanker nearly collided with a JetBlue flight en route from Curaçao to New York after crossing into the commercial aircraft’s path without activating its transponder, according to air traffic control audio reviewed by The New York Times. The JetBlue pilot reported being forced to halt the plane’s climb to avoid a collision, estimating the tanker passed within two to five miles. Air traffic controllers noted similar incidents the following day involving unidentified aircraft, likely US military, operating with transponders off. The incident occurs amid the Trump administration’s escalating “Operation Southern Spear,” a military buildup in the Caribbean linked to potential strikes against Venezuela and anti-cartel operations, including naval pressure on oil shipments. Civilian authorities, including Colombia’s Transport Minister María Fernanda Rojas, condemned prior US cyber operations that disrupted GPS signals for commercial airlines in the region, describing them as dangerous and criminal. The FAA has maintained a high-level security alert (NOTAM) for Venezuela through February, yet civilian flights continue over broader Caribbean airspace. Analysts and commentators warn that ongoing military maneuvers with transponders off endanger civilian air traffic, heightening the risk of accidents as US operations intensify around Venezuelan airspace.

IMMIGRATION CRISIS 

DHS Reports Over 10,000 Criminal Illegal Alien Arrests in Los Angeles Since June 

Federal immigration authorities have arrested more than 10,000 illegal immigrants in Los Angeles since June, including individuals convicted of murder, sexual assault, kidnapping, armed robbery, and other violent crimes, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). DHS officials highlighted that agents carried out operations amid assaults by protesters, including firebombs and projectiles, as well as interference during detentions. Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin criticized California Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for “failing to protect the people” and “demonizing” law enforcement. Among the criminal illegal aliens arrested were individuals from Iran, Mexico, Cuba, Armenia, and Kenya, convicted of a wide range of serious offenses, including repeated illegal re-entry into the U.S., homicide, sexual assault, drug crimes, and fraud. Civil rights groups, including the ACLU, have challenged the operations in court, resulting in a temporary restraining order blocking arrests without probable cause. California officials recently launched an online portal to report potential federal misconduct and provide legal support for those facing deportation. DHS also reported an 8,000 percent increase in death threats against agents since operations began, underscoring the volatile environment in which enforcement has occurred. 

Trump Expands Travel Ban Following Global Terror Attacks 

President Donald Trump on Tuesday expanded his travel ban to include five additional countries—Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan, and Syria—citing heightened global terror threats. The expansion also prohibits entry for travelers with documents issued by the Palestinian Authority. This builds on previous restrictions imposed in June covering Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen, with heightened scrutiny for visitors from Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela. The White House cited the need for “extreme vigilance” in visa issuance and immigration processes to prevent admission of foreign nationals intending to harm Americans, undermine US institutions, or support designated terrorists. The move follows a spate of recent attacks, including an ISIS-inspired shooting in Sydney that killed 15 Jewish community members celebrating Hanukkah, and the deaths of two US Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter in Syria at the hands of ISIS. Additionally, Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal, admitted under Biden’s Operation Allies Welcome, allegedly shot two National Guardsmen in Washington, D.C., last month, killing Specialist Sarah Beckstrom and injuring Andrew Wolfe, highlighting concerns over the vetting of entrants under previous programs. 

Trump Administration Reports Historic Border Security Gains in Early FY2026 

The House Committee on Homeland Security released a “Border Brief” highlighting record-low border encounters at the start of Fiscal Year 2026, attributing the results to Trump administration policies and funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill. Nationwide apprehensions in October and November 2025 totaled 60,940, marking a 28 percent decline from previous record lows. Southwest border apprehensions between ports of entry fell to 7,350 in November, an 84 percent year-over-year drop, while daily averages decreased 95 percent compared to the prior administration. For seven consecutive months, Border Patrol reported releasing no inadmissible aliens into the interior. The report emphasized targeted enforcement against violent criminals and drug traffickers, including locating over 62,000 unaccompanied children previously released to unvetted sponsors, and significant narcotics seizures. Maritime smuggling became more prominent, with the Coast Guard seizing a record 49,000 pounds of drugs valued at $362 million. GOP committee leaders lauded the results as evidence of successful deterrence and effective investment in border security, stressing continued partnership with the Trump administration. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and FBI officials reinforced the focus on equipping law enforcement to maintain these gains throughout FY2026. 

Irregular Migration Through Mexico Plummets Under Trump

Irregular migration through Mexico dropped by up to 86% during parts of 2025 compared with the same periods in 2024, according to data from Mexico’s National Immigration Institute (INM). Between January and September, Mexican authorities recorded or detained 135,233 undocumented migrants, a sharp decline from 1,005,321 during the same months last year. May was particularly notable, with just 5,128 encounters versus 125,499 in May 2024. Venezuelans, Hondurans, and Colombians comprised the bulk of migrants, with men representing 68.9% of the total. The decline coincides with U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, marked by aggressive anti-immigration measures and direct pressure on Mexico, including threats of tariffs if migration was not curtailed. Mexican authorities appear to have largely complied with Washington’s demands, with the majority of detentions occurring in the southeast near the Guatemalan border. Chiapas accounted for 23.3% of total detentions (31,472 migrants), while Tabasco registered the highest number at 76,136, or 56.3% of all apprehensions. The data underscores the impact of U.S.-Mexico coordination on controlling northward migration flows.

BOHICA! 

Next Air Force One Boeing Program Cost Hits $4.3 Billion 

Boeing has received a $15.5 million contract modification to enhance communications capabilities on the VC-25B, the upcoming Next Air Force One, increasing the total program value to $4.315 billion. The modification, issued under contract FA8625-16-C-6599, covers work separate from the aircraft’s firm-fixed-price engineering and manufacturing development and is scheduled for completion by December 1, 2026, in San Antonio, Texas. The upgrades support two fully mission-capable VC-25B aircraft, ensuring secure, resilient voice, data, and satellite communications for presidential command-and-control operations. The VC-25B, based on the Boeing 747-8, is being transformed into a militarized “flying White House” capable of sustaining the President’s constitutional and national security responsibilities while airborne, including during crises when terrestrial networks are unavailable. Managed by the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center under the Presidential and Executive Airlift portfolio, the program emphasizes survivability, global reach, and continuous connectivity. Incremental contract actions, such as this communications expansion, reflect the program’s ongoing efforts to meet the demanding technical, operational, and security requirements of presidential airlift. Boeing serves as the prime contractor, coordinating with multiple government and industry partners to integrate, sustain, and certify advanced communications systems across U.S. facilities. 

New Air Force One Replacement Delayed Until at Least 2028 

The delivery of the next-generation Air Force One aircraft has been delayed again, with the U.S. Air Force now projecting that the first of two new Boeing 747-8 jets will not enter service until at least mid-2028. The aircraft, designated VC-25B, was originally expected to be delivered in 2027, marking another setback in a program that has faced years of delays and cost overruns. An Air Force spokesperson confirmed that a $15.5 million contract modification was awarded to Boeing on Dec. 12, 2025, to support the integration of new and upgraded communications systems. Officials stated the additional work can be completed within the revised schedule, which now targets a 2028 delivery for the first aircraft. No specific explanation was provided for the latest delay, and Boeing deferred all questions to the Air Force. The VC-25B program stems from a fixed-price contract signed in 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first term, which initially called for delivery of a replacement aircraft by the end of 2024. Since then, Boeing has absorbed significant financial losses tied to the program, as technical complexity, supply chain challenges, and security requirements have repeatedly pushed timelines back. The delays mean the current, aging Air Force One fleet will remain in service longer than originally planned. 

Congress Passes $900B Defense Bill, Reaffirming NATO and Europe Amid Trump Tensions 

U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday passed a $900 billion National Defense Authorization Act, underscoring strong bipartisan backing for NATO, Europe, and longstanding U.S. alliances while implicitly rebuking President Donald Trump’s increasingly skeptical posture toward them. The Senate approved the bill 77–20 after House passage last week, preserving one of Washington’s few remaining areas of cross-party consensus. The NDAA constrains the administration’s ability to rapidly draw down U.S. forces in Europe by barring troop levels from falling below 76,000 for more than 45 days and limiting the withdrawal of major military equipment, effectively anchoring the U.S. security commitment to the continent. It also boosts funding for frontline NATO states, particularly in the Baltics, reinforcing the alliance’s northeastern flank. Lawmakers authorized roughly $8 billion more than the administration requested, signaling congressional assertiveness on defense priorities. Beyond Europe, the bill locks in $400 million in security assistance for Ukraine and restricts reductions to the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. The vote comes amid unease in European capitals following a White House national security strategy critical of Europe’s strategic value and defense spending. While the NDAA faced objections from both Ukraine aid critics and aviation safety experts, it ultimately passed with broad support, reaffirming Congress’s commitment to alliances and forward U.S. military presence. 

Trump Signs Bipartisan Defense Bill Reinforcing NATO Commitments Despite Rhetoric 

President Donald Trump signed the annual National Defense Authorization Act into law Thursday, approving a sweeping defense policy package that underscores strong bipartisan backing for Europe even as his administration’s rhetoric toward NATO and key allies has grown more confrontational. The roughly $900 billion NDAA outlines U.S. national security priorities for the coming year, raises military pay, funds the administration’s “Golden Dome” air and missile defense initiative, and codifies what the White House calls a “peace through strength” agenda. The bill also eliminates diversity, equity, and inclusion programs opposed by conservatives and mandates promotion standards based on merit. Passed easily by both chambers of Congress, the legislation contrasts sharply with recent White House strategy documents that criticized Europe as strategically weak and culturally adrift, stoking concerns in allied capitals. Lawmakers instead used the NDAA to lock in America’s European posture, barring U.S. troop levels from dropping below 76,000 for extended periods, restricting major equipment withdrawals, and increasing resources for frontline NATO states, particularly in the Baltics. The measure authorizes about $8 billion more than the administration requested, signals congressional resolve, guarantees $400 million in security assistance for Ukraine, and limits reductions of U.S. forces in South Korea. Despite criticism from multiple factions, the must-pass bill advanced with broad support.

Pentagon Fails Eighth Consecutive Financial Audit, Highlighting Persistent Accounting Gaps 

The Pentagon has failed its financial audit for the eighth straight year, underscoring long-standing systemic challenges in fully accounting for its assets. Since Congress mandated annual audits in 2018, the Department of Defense (DoD) remains the only major federal agency never to pass. The FY2025 report identified 26 material weaknesses and two significant deficiencies, including omissions in the Joint Strike Fighter Program’s Global Spares Pool, where assets were unreported or inaccurately recorded, resulting in material misstatements on agency-wide financial statements. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized the department’s commitment to audits, noting that DoD oversees $4.65 trillion in assets and $4.7 trillion in liabilities spread across all 50 states and over 40 countries. Hegseth framed the audit results as a guide for improving fiscal oversight, citing decades of war, underinvestment in the defense industrial base, and rising national debt as compounding factors. Chief Financial Officer Jules Hurst stated that the Pentagon is working to resolve critical issues and aims to achieve an “unmodified” audit opinion by 2028, signaling a multi-year effort to strengthen financial accountability and ensure taxpayer dollars are managed effectively.

 

 WAR (and rumors of war) 

US MILITARY 

U.S. Shows Force in Syria After ISIS-Linked Attack Kills American Personnel 

The United States carried out a visible military show of force over central Syria after a deadly Dec. 13 ambush near Palmyra killed two U.S. Army soldiers and an American civilian interpreter, an attack U.S. officials attribute to an ISIS-linked gunman. Following the incident, U.S. Air Force F-16s conducted low-altitude flights over the area, while footage also showed an A-10 deploying flares, signaling a warning to hostile actors. President Donald Trump vowed “very serious retaliation,” framing the assault as an ISIS attack targeting both U.S. and Syrian interests in a volatile region. Preliminary intelligence indicates the attacker was a former member of Syrian security forces who had been expelled or was in the process of removal due to suspected ISIS ties. Three additional U.S. service members from the Iowa National Guard were wounded during what CENTCOM described as a lone-gunman ambush that occurred while troops were conducting a key leader engagement as part of counterterrorism operations. Syrian partner forces reportedly killed the attacker, and two Syrian security personnel were also wounded. The incident comes amid improving U.S.-Syrian relations following the fall of Bashar al-Assad and closer coordination between CENTCOM and Syria’s new government, leading some analysts to view the attack as an attempt to undermine that emerging partnership. 

Iowa National Guard Soldiers Killed in ISIS Ambush in Syria 

Two Iowa National Guard soldiers, Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard, 29, of Marshalltown, and Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres Tovar, 25, of Grimes, were killed Saturday in an ambush by an ISIS gunman in Palmyra, Syria, officials confirmed. The attack also wounded three other soldiers, two of whom required medical evacuation, and killed one U.S. civilian working as an interpreter. The gunman reportedly fired at troops near a military post entrance and was later neutralized by U.S. forces. Both fallen soldiers were assigned to the 1st Squadron, 113th Cavalry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, currently deployed for counterterrorism operations. Maj. Gen. Stephen Osborn, adjutant general of the Iowa National Guard, honored their sacrifice and emphasized support for the families. President Donald Trump warned of “very serious retaliation” and noted that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose forces overthrew the Assad regime last year, was “devastated” by the attack. This incident marks the first U.S. combat deaths during Trump’s second term and the first since Assad’s ouster in December 2024. The U.S. maintains hundreds of troops in the region under Operation Inherent Resolve, with the UN estimating over 5,000 ISIS fighters remain active in Syria. 

U.S. Launches Massive Retaliatory Strikes on ISIS Targets in Syria After American Deaths 

The United States carried out a large-scale air and artillery campaign against Islamic State targets in Syria on December 19, responding to the December 13 killing of three Americans in an ISIS-linked ambush near Palmyra, according to U.S. officials. Dubbed Operation Hawkeye Strike, the mission involved F-15E Strike Eagles, A-10 attack aircraft, AH-64 Apache helicopters, HIMARS rocket systems, and aerial refueling support, striking more than 70 ISIS-related sites, including infrastructure and weapons storage locations. U.S. Central Command described the operation as a “massive strike,” employing over 100 precision-guided munitions, including 2,000-pound GBU-31 JDAMs. The operation was named in honor of Iowa Army National Guard soldiers killed or wounded in the attack, which also claimed the life of a U.S. civilian interpreter and marked the first American fatalities in Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes were a direct response and framed them as a declaration of vengeance, while President Donald Trump emphasized that promised retaliation was being delivered. Jordanian aircraft participated alongside U.S. forces. The strikes occurred amid expanding cooperation between Washington and Syria’s new government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, with analysts suggesting the ISIS attack aimed to undermine that alignment. U.S. officials stressed the operation was intended to disrupt ISIS’s resurgence and prevent threats to the U.S. homeland. 

U.S. Deploys Air Force Personnel to Ecuador as Anti-Drug Campaign Intensifies Near Venezuela 

The United States announced a temporary deployment of Air Force personnel to Ecuador on Wednesday, expanding Washington’s counter-narcotics operations in one of Latin America’s most critical drug trafficking corridors as tensions with Venezuela continue to escalate. According to the U.S. Embassy in Quito, the deployment will take place at Manta Air Force Base and involves a short-term joint operation with the Ecuadorian Air Force aimed at strengthening intelligence collection, surveillance, and anti–drug trafficking capabilities. The mission is framed as a cooperative effort to combat “narco-terrorists” and protect shared U.S.-Ecuadorian security interests. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, a close U.S. ally, said the operation would help dismantle trafficking routes and suppress powerful criminal gangs that have fueled a surge in violence, transforming Ecuador from one of South America’s safest countries into one of its most dangerous. The ports of Guayaquil and Manta have become major export hubs for cocaine produced in Colombia and Peru, intensifying pressure on Ecuador’s security forces. The deployment comes despite Ecuadorian voters rejecting the return of foreign military bases in a November referendum, underscoring the sensitivity of the move. Regionally, the operation aligns with the Trump administration’s aggressive anti-drug posture, which includes expanded naval and air operations across the Caribbean and Pacific, lethal interdictions of suspected trafficking vessels, and a broader confrontation with Venezuela involving sanctions, tanker seizures, and a de facto blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. 

U.S. MQ-9 Reapers in Puerto Rico Arm Up Amid Caribbean Operations Targeting Venezuela 

At least nine U.S. Air Force MQ-9A Reapers have deployed to Rafael Hernández Airport in Puerto Rico for counter-narcotics and pressure operations in the Caribbean, now routinely carrying between six and ten AGM-114 Hellfire missiles each. Emerging photos show variable loadouts: six, eight, and in one Reuters image, ten Hellfires, along with external fuel tanks and unidentified ISR pods. The Reapers employ M299 four-rail and M310 twin-rail launchers to achieve these configurations, maximizing strike capability while retaining persistent ISR coverage. This marks a significant operational extension of the MQ-9’s payload compared with 2020 tests that first enabled eight Hellfires. Rafael Hernández has become a hub for U.S. Special Operations Command assets, complementing a broader Caribbean deployment including at least ten MC-130J Commando IIs, eleven CV-22B Ospreys, U.S. Marine Corps F-35Bs, U.S. Air Force F-35As, and B-52 overflights. The buildup supports intensified U.S. pressure on Venezuela, including enforcement of oil blockades and counter-drug operations, as part of the largest U.S. naval and air deployment in the region in decades. Operational Security measures are now in place, including fence coverings, to restrict visual observation of sensitive assets. 

U.S. and Japan Conduct Joint B-52, F-15/F-35 Drill Amid Rising Tensions with China 

U.S. B-52 strategic bombers and Japanese F-15 and F-35 fighter jets participated in a joint military exercise on Wednesday near Japan’s western airspace, between Japan and South Korea, in response to increasing regional tensions. The Japanese Joint Staff described the drills as a demonstration of readiness and a reaffirmation of the U.S.-Japan alliance, emphasizing their resolve to prevent unilateral attempts to alter the status quo by force. The exercise followed a Tuesday incident in which two Chinese H-6 bombers and two Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers, escorted by four Chinese J-16 fighters, flew over the East China Sea toward southern Shikoku, prompting Japan and South Korea to scramble aircraft for monitoring. The flights come amid repeated reports of Chinese radar locking on Japanese jets during recent monitoring operations. Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth discussed the “increasingly severe security situation” by phone on Friday. The U.S. State Department characterized China’s recent actions as “not conducive to regional peace and stability,” while reaffirming close cooperation with Japan. Analysts view these joint drills as both a deterrent against China’s regional assertiveness and a signal of the strengthened U.S.-Japan military partnership amid ongoing Indo-Pacific security challenges. 

Trump Announces Trump-Class Battleships, Reviving Heavy Surface Combatants

President Donald J. Trump announced plans for the U.S. Navy to design and build a new class of large surface combatants, reviving battleships as a frontline capability while cancelling the Navy’s planned next-generation DDG(X) destroyer. Speaking from Mar-a-Lago, Trump said he had approved construction of two Trump-class battleships, describing them as the largest ever built by the United States and the foundation of a future “golden fleet.” Navy officials said the ships will displace between 30,000 and 40,000 tons and are currently in the design phase, with construction of the lead ship, USS Defiant, targeted for the early 2030s. Trump indicated the long-term goal is a fleet of 20 to 25 ships, with up to ten planned beyond the initial approvals. Secretary of the Navy John Phelan compared the new class to the Iowa-class, emphasizing offensive firepower rather than defensive roles. The Trump-class will feature conventional naval guns, advanced missile systems, hypersonic weapons, electronic railguns, high-powered lasers, and a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile, giving surface combatants a renewed nuclear mission. Built entirely in U.S. shipyards, the program is framed as both a strategic shift in naval warfare and a major industrial investment, with the ships intended to serve as future fleet flagships and command platforms.

FORTRESS EUROPE 

Estonia Begins Construction of Baltic Defense Line Bunkers Along Russian Border 

Estonia has commenced building concrete bunkers along its border with Russia as part of a broader effort by NATO’s eastern flank to strengthen land defenses. The initiative, known as the Baltic Defense Line, was agreed in January 2024 by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to create a network of bunkers, support points, and distribution lines along borders with Russia and Belarus. Estonia aims to install 28 bunkers by the end of 2025, though delays have pushed full completion of roughly 600 bunkers to 2027. These structures, along with trenches, are primarily designed to protect soldiers from artillery and other attacks, with careful attention being paid to their strategic placement. Similar measures are underway in neighboring Latvia and Lithuania, which are investing hundreds of millions of euros in multi-stage border defenses including anti-tank “dragon’s teeth,” trenches, and demolish able bridges. Regional leaders have also discussed dismantling rail links to Russia and Belarus to limit potential incursions. The effort reflects concerns over potential small-scale land grabs by Moscow and assessments that Russia could be capable of attacking a NATO member in the near future. Officials stress that the construction aims to ensure readiness and provide security for civilians while deterring any aggression along the eastern frontier. 

Poland Revives Land Mines as Europe Hardens Eastern Defenses 

European plans for a high-tech “drone wall” to protect NATO’s eastern and northern borders are now expanding to include anti-personnel land mines, marking a significant and controversial escalation in regional defense posture. Poland has confirmed it will begin producing anti-personnel mines for the first time since the Cold War, with plans to deploy them along its borders with Belarus and Russia, including near Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, and potentially export them to Ukraine. Polish Deputy Defense Minister Pawel Zalewski stated that Warsaw is seeking large quantities quickly as part of the broader “East Shield” initiative, confirming a decisive shift in policy. This move coincides with Poland’s withdrawal from the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning such weapons, a process it began in August but only now formally committed to completing. The decision reflects a wider regional trend, as nearly all European countries bordering Russia—excluding Norway—have announced plans to exit the treaty, citing heightened security threats. The Baltic states have similarly abandoned the ban, arguing their forces need maximum flexibility to defend NATO’s eastern flank. Critics warn, however, that land mines pose long-term humanitarian risks, killing indiscriminately and endangering civilians long after conflicts end. 

Germany Approves Record €50 Billion Defense Procurement Surge for 2025 

Germany’s parliamentary budget committee approved nearly €50 billion in new defense procurement on Wednesday, pushing total major Bundeswehr acquisitions for 2025 to a record 103 projects worth €83 billion, underscoring Berlin’s accelerated rearmament drive since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The latest approvals conclude three years of defense spending that now exceed the combined total of the previous eight years, reflecting a fundamental shift in German security policy. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the decisions demonstrate Germany’s resolve to rapidly equip a more powerful and resilient Bundeswehr, even as the country operates under provisional budget rules. Among the most consequential projects is the €1.76 billion SPOCK tactical radar satellite system, developed by Rheinmetall and Finland’s Iceye, which will provide AI-enabled, all-weather reconnaissance to Germany’s new 45th Armored Brigade stationed in Lithuania, with total costs potentially exceeding €2.7 billion by 2030. Lawmakers also approved expanded procurement and modernization of the Puma infantry fighting vehicle, upgrades to Patriot air defense systems, additional Arrow missile interceptors, and large purchases of munitions including IRIS-T, Meteor, TAURUS NEO, and submarine torpedoes. From 2023 to 2025 alone, Germany has authorized 255 major defense projects worth €188.4 billion, highlighting the scale and urgency of its military rebuilding effort. 

Second NATO Weapons Hub to Open in Romania, Doubling Aid Flow to Ukraine 

Starting January 2026, NATO will inaugurate a second logistics hub in Romania to accelerate and diversify military aid deliveries to Ukraine, complementing the existing hub in Jasionka, Poland. The move aims to reduce reliance on a single transit point and expand the flow of weapons, including missiles, ammunition, and air defense systems, through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) mechanism. Since the 2022 Russian invasion, the Polish hub has facilitated roughly 220,000 tons of military aid to Kyiv, including 9,000 trucks, 1,800 railway cars, and 500 aircraft carrying equipment from Europe and the United States. NATO deputy commander for support to Ukraine, General Mike Keller, confirmed the new hub’s opening, emphasizing its strategic importance for sustaining independent and resilient arms supplies. In Poland, security checks and oversight of aid shipments—including explosives and counterintelligence measures—have been managed by a coordinated support inspectorate composed of the Military Counterintelligence Service, police units, the Central Bureau of Police Investigation, and the Military Gendarmerie. Defense experts highlight that the Romanian hub will be critical in maintaining uninterrupted delivery of urgently needed military assets to Ukraine.

Russia Warns Europe Preparing for War Amid NATO Rearmament 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has claimed that European nations are preparing for war with Moscow, highlighting growing tensions ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Florida. Lavrov’s remarks come as NATO countries dramatically increase defense spending, with pledges to devote 3.5 percent of GDP to core capabilities and an additional 1.5 percent to related security and infrastructure, reflecting concerns over Russia’s sustained military investment and ongoing operations in Ukraine. European leaders, including Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, acknowledge that peacetime conditions since the Cold War have ended, though they insist the continent is not formally at war. NATO’s eastern flank remains particularly alert to hybrid threats such as cyberattacks, weaponized migration, and infrastructure disruption, which are often attributed to Russia. Analysts note that some European capitals fear that a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow could allow Russia to regroup and prepare attacks beyond Ukraine. Lavrov accused Europe of seeking Moscow’s economic collapse under sanctions while openly preparing to fight on the battlefield. The Trump-Zelensky meeting will review Ukraine’s latest 20-point peace framework, though Russia’s response to the updated proposal has not been made public, leaving uncertainty over the trajectory of both diplomacy and military posturing in the region. 

Denmark and Greenland Reject U.S. Envoy Appointment, Reaffirm Sovereignty 

Denmark and Greenland pushed back Monday against President Donald Trump’s appointment of Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry as a special U.S. envoy to Greenland, insisting the United States will not take control of the Arctic territory. The joint statement from Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenlandic Premier Jens-Frederik Nielsen emphasized that national borders and sovereignty are “fundamental principles” under international law, and that Greenland belongs to its people. Trump defended the appointment, citing Greenland’s strategic importance amid Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic, and called Landry a “deal-maker” who would advance U.S. national security interests. Landry expressed on social media his intent to make Greenland “a part of the U.S.” Danish officials said they were not forewarned of the appointment and will summon U.S. Ambassador Kenneth Howery to Copenhagen. Greenland’s leadership maintained that the announcement does not change the island’s self-governance, stressing that cooperation with other nations must respect Greenlandic values and democracy. The European Union, via President Ursula von der Leyen, voiced solidarity with Denmark and Greenland, reiterating that Arctic security is a priority while underscoring the inviolability of territorial integrity and international law. 

US Approves $1.8B P-8A Sale to Denmark Amid Greenland Tensions 

The United States on Monday approved a $1.8-billion sale of P-8A patrol and reconnaissance aircraft to Denmark, including up to three planes, following a recent $1-billion missile sale to Copenhagen. The State Department framed the sale as enhancing NATO security and supporting US foreign policy objectives by strengthening a politically and economically stable European ally. The announcement comes amid heightened tension over President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory. Trump earlier this month appointed Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as a special envoy to Greenland, who immediately advocated for making the island “part of the US,” prompting Denmark to summon the US ambassador. Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out seizing Greenland by force, citing its strategic and resource importance. The aircraft sale underscores Washington’s continued commitment to NATO defense despite Trump’s controversial Arctic overtures, reflecting a balancing act between strengthening European security and pursuing his administration’s provocative Arctic agenda.

MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL 

Islamic State Claims Deadly Attack on Syrian Security Patrol in Idlib 

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility on Monday for an attack that killed four Syrian security personnel in Idlib province, underscoring the group’s continued ability to carry out lethal operations despite its territorial defeat. According to the SITE Intelligence Group, IS said its fighters ambushed a patrol of Syrian government forces with machine guns on the Maaret al-Numan road, an area where Damascus had earlier confirmed casualties without naming the perpetrators. Syria’s interior ministry reported that four members of its road security department were killed and a fifth wounded while on duty. Although IS once controlled large areas of Syria, its operational tempo has declined since losing its so-called caliphate in 2019 and further decreased following the overthrow of former president Bashar al-Assad in an Islamist-led offensive last December. Nevertheless, the group has continued sporadic attacks, including its first claimed strike against Syria’s new authorities in May, when it said a roadside bomb killed one person and wounded three. The latest claim comes amid intensified counterterrorism operations by Damascus, often conducted alongside a U.S.-led coalition targeting suspected IS sleeper cells in the Syrian desert. These operations followed a recent attack near Palmyra that killed two U.S. soldiers and a civilian interpreter, an incident blamed on IS but not formally claimed by the group. Syrian officials say arrests have been made and allege the Palmyra attacker was a radicalized member of the security forces. 

Israeli Defense Minister Signals Long-Term Gaza Presence, Sparking Political Backlash 

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israel intends to maintain a permanent military presence in Gaza and eventually establish new outposts in the territory’s north, remarks that have intensified debate as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Hamas remains fragile. Speaking at an event in the West Bank settlement of Beit El, Katz said Israeli forces are “deep inside Gaza” and will not withdraw, arguing the presence is necessary to prevent a repeat of past attacks. He further pledged that, at an unspecified future point, Israel would create Nahal outposts—military-agricultural settlements historically used to establish control—in areas evacuated during Israel’s 2005 disengagement from Gaza. The comments directly conflict with ongoing diplomatic efforts led by the United States to advance subsequent phases of a ceasefire framework, which envision an Israeli withdrawal, the replacement of Hamas with an interim governing authority, the deployment of an international stabilization force, and the demilitarization of the territory. Katz’s stance drew sharp criticism from former defense minister and ex–IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, who accused the government of undermining national consensus and contradicting its public support for President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan. The controversy was further fueled when a group of Israeli civilians briefly entered Gaza against military orders to stage a symbolic flag-raising, calling for reoccupation and resettlement, underscoring deep internal divisions over Israel’s long-term strategy in the territory. 

Iran Conducts Widespread Missile Drills Amid Heightened Israel-U.S. Tensions 

Iran launched live missile exercises Monday across multiple cities, including Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad, Khorramabad, and Mahabad, demonstrating its continued investment in ballistic capabilities. Officials, including Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, emphasized the program is defensive, asserting Iran’s right to protect itself amid regional tensions. The exercises coincide with a scheduled December 29 meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where Israel is expected to press for U.S. approval for potential strikes on Iranian missile sites. Israeli officials have expressed concern that Tehran’s tests could signal preparations for an attack, though assessments place the probability below 50%, highlighting the risk of miscalculations triggering conflict. Videos of missiles launched from urban areas have circulated widely, further escalating perception of threat. Analysts note the exercises occur against the backdrop of the June 12-day war, when hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones targeted Israeli infrastructure after Israel preemptively struck Iranian nuclear sites—a move Tehran sees as a betrayal of prior negotiations. Observers warn that the latest missile drills heighten the risk of a regional misstep, as each side may misinterpret the other’s intent, potentially sparking unintended escalation between Israel and Iran. 

Saudi Coalition Strikes Alleged Arms Shipment as Yemen Separatist Crisis Deepens 

A Saudi-led coalition said it carried out airstrikes in Yemen targeting a large cache of weapons and combat vehicles allegedly unloaded from ships arriving from the United Arab Emirates, amid mounting tensions with UAE-backed southern separatists. According to Saudi state media, the vessels disabled their tracking systems before offloading arms at the port of al-Mukalla to support the Southern Transitional Council (STC), prompting what Riyadh described as a limited and lawful military operation with no civilian casualties. The strike comes as the STC, which seeks to reestablish an independent South Yemen, has seized wide areas of eastern Yemen, expelling other government-aligned forces and straining relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both nominally allied in support of Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Saudi officials have warned they will back the government in any confrontation and have urged the STC to withdraw peacefully from the provinces it captured. The escalation follows earlier Saudi airstrikes on separatist positions and U.S. calls for restraint, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio urging diplomacy. Despite pressure, the STC has signaled defiance, while pro-independence rallies have grown in southern cities. The crisis underscores deep fractures within Yemen’s anti-Houthi camp as the broader civil war grinds on. 

Iran Declares “Full-Fledged War” on U.S., Israel, and Europe Amid Economic Strain 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that his country is engaged in a “full-fledged war with America, Israel, and Europe,” signaling heightened tensions months after U.S. airstrikes targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities. In an interview published on the Supreme Leader’s website, Pezeshkian accused Washington and its allies of deliberately seeking to destabilize Tehran, asserting that Iran’s armed forces are now stronger than ever and would deliver a decisive response to any future strikes. His comments precede a planned meeting between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where Iran’s ballistic missile program is expected to be discussed. Pezeshkian also criticized the cumulative effects of sanctions, which he said have blocked trade, disrupted livelihoods, and fueled rising societal expectations, stressing the need for internal efforts to stabilize the country. The remarks come as Iran faces mounting economic challenges: inflation is rising, unemployment is increasing, and the rial has plummeted to a record low against the U.S. dollar, sparking protests in Tehran and other cities. The statement underscores Tehran’s defiant posture while highlighting domestic pressures exacerbated by sustained Western sanctions and economic isolation.

Mass Protests Erupt in Iran Amid Rial Collapse and Central Bank Chief Resignation 

Iran saw its largest protests in three years on Monday as the rial plummeted to a record low against the U.S. dollar, prompting the resignation of Central Bank Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin. Demonstrations erupted in Tehran’s Saadi Street and Shush neighborhoods near the Grand Bazaar, with traders and shopkeepers shutting shops and chanting anti-government slogans. Similar rallies were reported in major cities including Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad. Police reportedly used tear gas in some areas of Tehran to disperse crowds. The protests mark the most significant unrest since 2022, when nationwide demonstrations followed the death of Mahsa Jina Amini in morality police custody. Iran’s currency fell to 1.38 million rials per dollar on Monday from 1.42 million on Sunday, a sharp decline from 430,000 when Farzin took office in 2022. Inflation has surged alongside the currency crisis, with December consumer prices rising 42.2% year-on-year, food costs up 72%, and medical items 50%, fueling fears of approaching hyperinflation. The situation is compounded by planned gasoline price changes, upcoming tax increases in March, and broader geopolitical tensions, including the aftermath of June’s 12-day conflict with Israel and renewed UN nuclear sanctions, which have frozen Iranian assets and restricted arms transactions.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT 

Ukraine Claims First-Ever Underwater Drone Strike on Russian Submarine in Black Sea 

Ukraine announced on Monday that it has successfully used underwater drones to strike a Russian submarine docked at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, marking what Kyiv described as a first in the nearly three-year war with Russia. According to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), the attack was carried out using “Sub Sea Baby” naval drones in a covert operation that targeted a submarine armed with four Kalibr cruise missile launchers, weapons frequently used in strikes against Ukrainian territory. The SBU said the vessel sustained critical damage and was effectively taken out of service, though Russia has not commented on the claim. The alleged strike comes amid an intensification of Ukrainian naval operations in the Black Sea, where Kyiv has increasingly relied on drones and missiles to offset Russia’s naval superiority. In recent weeks, Ukraine has also targeted vessels it says are linked to Russian logistics and military activity, even as Russian forces continue regular missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian ports, including Odesa. The escalation has raised regional concerns, particularly after two Turkish cargo ships were struck in recent days during incidents Kyiv said involved Russian targets. Turkey has urged restraint, calling for an end to attacks on ports and energy infrastructure and warning of broader escalation in the strategically vital Black Sea. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine’s expanding use of naval drones has steadily eroded Russia’s freedom of operation at sea. 

Ukraine Fights Russian Push in Sumy Region Amid Reports of Civilian Abductions 

Ukrainian forces are resisting a renewed Russian attempt to advance in the Sumy region, an area largely spared from intense ground fighting since Kyiv’s 2022 counteroffensive, as reports emerge that Moscow forcibly transferred around 50 civilians from the border village of Grabovske into Russian territory. Ukraine’s joint task force confirmed ongoing fighting in Grabovske and asserted efforts to push Russian forces back across the border, while denying reports that neighboring Ryasne was occupied. The Ukrainian rights ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, said the civilians were initially detained under poor conditions before being transported to Russia, though these claims remain unverified and Russia has offered no official comment. The Russian army recently reported capturing Vysoke, near Grabovske, prompting Ukrainian authorities to evacuate border communities in armored vehicles after residents initially refused to leave. The Sumy breakthrough occurs amid broader Russian gains in eastern Ukraine and ongoing negotiations to end the four-year conflict. President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted sustained Russian assaults over the week, citing roughly 1,300 drone attacks, nearly 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and nine missiles of various types. The developments underscore continued volatility along Ukraine’s northeastern frontier, the persistent threat to civilians near the border, and the ongoing intensity of Moscow’s military operations despite diplomatic efforts. 

Putin Signals Continued Offensive in Ukraine Amid Stalled Peace Talks 

Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the “special military operation” in Ukraine will persist until all objectives are achieved, asserting that Russian forces are advancing “confidently” across multiple fronts. Speaking at a televised meeting with top military officials, Putin outlined ongoing operations in the Donbas, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions—territories Moscow annexed via disputed referenda in 2022. Russian Defense Chief Valery Gerasimov reported that December alone saw over 700 square kilometers retaken and 32 settlements captured, marking the fastest rate of progress in 2025. Russian forces have reportedly secured Dibrova village in Donetsk and broken through Ukrainian defenses toward key cities, including Zaporizhzhia, while the adversary focuses on defensive measures and localized counterattacks supported by drone operations. Putin reiterated that Moscow is not pursuing alternative peace plans, seeking only a political settlement that includes international recognition of Russian-held territories. Strategic objectives highlighted in the briefing include suppressing Ukrainian interference near Kupiansk, leveraging Siversk for offensives toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and expanding the Russian-Ukrainian border security zone. The Kremlin’s messaging follows the failed Trump-Zelensky Florida meeting and underscores Moscow’s determination to maintain battlefield leverage and pressure Kyiv in ongoing negotiations.

Moscow Claims Foiled Drone Attack on Putin Residence as Kyiv Denounces Escalation Narrative 

Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting a large-scale drone attack on a residence linked to President Vladimir Putin in northern Russia, a claim Kyiv firmly rejected as fabricated and designed to justify further military escalation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Ukraine launched 91 long-range drones overnight toward the Dolgiye Borody presidential retreat in the Novgorod region, asserting that Russian air defenses intercepted and destroyed all of them without casualties or damage. Lavrov warned the alleged strike would not go unanswered, describing it as “state terrorism” and stating that Russian forces had already identified targets for retaliatory action. He added that the incident occurred amid ongoing negotiations over a potential peace settlement, forcing Moscow to reassess its negotiating posture, though Russia would not formally withdraw from talks. Russian officials did not confirm whether Putin was present at the residence, a historic retreat previously used by multiple Soviet and Russian leaders. Ukraine categorically denied responsibility, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling the allegation “another round of lies” and accusing Moscow of preparing pretexts to strike Ukrainian government facilities while inflaming tensions during sensitive diplomatic efforts. Zelenskyy said the claim aimed to disrupt Ukraine–U.S. peace discussions and urged U.S. President Donald Trump to respond to Russian threats. The exchange coincided with intensified fighting, as Putin ordered Russian forces to escalate operations to seize full control of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region. 

Belarus Confirms Deployment of Russian Nuclear-Capable Hypersonic Missile 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Russia has deployed its newly developed hypersonic, nuclear-capable missile system known as Oreshnik on Belarusian territory, marking a significant escalation in Moscow’s forward-based strategic posture. Speaking during his annual address, Lukashenko said the missile entered Belarus and was placed on combat duty immediately, confirming earlier Russian statements that such a deployment was planned by the end of 2025. The Oreshnik system was publicly unveiled by Moscow last year after it was used to strike the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, signaling a sharp intensification of Russia’s long-range strike capabilities as the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year. Belarus, a close Russian ally, has already hosted Russian tactical nuclear weapons since 2023 and played a critical role in facilitating Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 by allowing its territory to be used as a launch corridor. Minsk has also indicated that Oreshnik deployment procedures will be practiced during the upcoming Zapad-2025 joint military exercises, to be held near NATO and EU eastern borders. The confirmed presence of the missile in Belarus is likely to heighten security concerns among neighboring states, reinforcing fears of further militarization along NATO’s eastern flank and underlining the deepening military integration between Moscow and Minsk. 

Russia Imposes Defense Austerity as War Costs Strain Military Budget 

Russia’s Defense Ministry is operating under significant financial strain as the prolonged war in Ukraine forces hard tradeoffs between current operations, future modernization, and broader strategic competition with NATO, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov said at the ministry’s final board meeting. Belousov confirmed that austerity measures were imposed in 2025, with non-operational spending deferred or reduced to manage pressure on the federal budget. As a result, expenditures unrelated directly to combat fell from 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024 to 2.2 percent in 2025, even as overall military spending rose to sustain ongoing operations. The ministry now must divide limited resources among battlefield requirements in Ukraine, preparations for heightened confrontation with NATO, and long-term research and development to preserve Russia’s military standing. While Russia has historically maintained budget surpluses and accumulated sizable reserves that could support higher defense spending, structural constraints remain. First Deputy Defense Minister Leonid Gornin said tighter oversight of procurement and spending allowed the reallocation of more than 860 billion rubles in 2025 toward priority weapons programs. Arms exports have partially offset costs, with export revenues rising year-on-year and new fighter jet deals with Algeria, Iran, and Ethiopia, including Su-35 and Su-57 deliveries. At the same time, Russia has increasingly relied on foreign suppliers, importing large volumes of equipment from North Korea and smaller quantities from China and Iran, underscoring mounting pressure on its domestic defense-industrial base. 

Foreign Contractors Suffer Heavy Losses While Supporting Ukraine Amid Personnel Shortages 

Former Ukrainian Security Service officer Vasily Prozorov has reported that roughly 10,000 foreign contractor personnel have been killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, highlighting their central role in supplementing Ukrainian forces amid severe manpower shortages. Contractors hail from NATO countries, with Poland notably active early in the conflict, while personnel from Latin American nations such as Colombia and Brazil have increasingly participated since 2024. Key organizations include the Polish Volunteer Corps and the U.S.-linked Forward Observation Group. Prozorov noted that foreign fighters are distributed across multiple units, including foreign legions within both military intelligence and regular land forces, serving in mechanized brigades and air assault formations. Russian forces have consistently targeted these contractors, viewing them as highly skilled specialists capable of operating complex weapon systems. Notable strikes include a January 2024 attack on French-dominated contractor headquarters that killed at least 60 personnel and a July 2025 strike on a training camp near Kropivnitsky causing over 100 casualties. While exact figures remain uncertain, contractor losses have been far lower than Ukrainian Armed Forces casualties, which exceed 1.7 million killed or missing through 2025, leaving frontline units at roughly 30–45 percent capacity. The reliance on foreign contractors, alongside active-duty personnel such as British Royal Marines, has thus become essential to sustaining Ukraine’s operational capabilities on the frontlines.  

INDO-PACIFIC 

Cambodia Reports Thai Airstrikes Amid Deadly Border Clashes 

Cambodia claimed on Thursday that Thailand launched new F-16 airstrikes in Preah Vihear province, targeting Phnom Kmoch and Peak Sbeak areas, as the deadly border conflict between the two nations continues. Cambodia’s Defense Ministry pledged to protect the country’s territorial integrity and national dignity with “unwavering resolve,” while Thai authorities reported destroying more than six buildings linked to transnational scam networks, including casinos and hotels. The clashes, reignited on December 7, have so far resulted in at least 55 deaths, including 21 Thai soldiers, 16 Thai civilians, and 18 Cambodian civilians, with 78 Cambodians injured. Despite US President Donald Trump’s statement last week that the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia had agreed to halt hostilities, fighting persists. The two countries had signed a peace agreement in October in Kuala Lumpur, witnessed by Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, but the deal was suspended after Thai soldiers were severely injured in a landmine explosion. A special Chinese envoy is scheduled to conduct shuttle diplomacy in an effort to mediate and restore peace. The dispute is part of a longstanding border conflict that has flared repeatedly, including July clashes that left at least 48 dead, and Thai authorities noted that 18 Cambodian soldiers remain in Thai custody from earlier incidents over the past five months. 

Thailand and Cambodia Agree to Border Talks as ASEAN Pushes to Halt Deadly Clashes 

Thailand and Cambodia agreed to hold bilateral border talks this week following an emergency ASEAN meeting in Malaysia aimed at containing renewed fighting that has killed at least 23 people in Thailand and 20 in Cambodia and displaced more than 900,000 civilians on both sides. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said the talks will take place Wednesday in Chanthaburi under an existing joint border committee framework, with a focus on detailed implementation and verification of a ceasefire by both militaries. Cambodia welcomed the initiative, expressing cautious optimism that Thailand would demonstrate sincerity in honoring a truce consistent with ASEAN objectives. However, Sihasak warned that a ceasefire cannot be declared symbolically and must be proven through concrete actions, reflecting lingering mistrust. The meeting follows the collapse of an earlier truce brokered in October under the auspices of U.S. President Donald Trump, which Thai officials now say was rushed. Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, urged urgent attention to the conflict’s wider humanitarian and regional implications. Both sides continue to trade accusations of civilian shelling, with Cambodia reporting ongoing Thai artillery fire and injuries, including to a Chinese national. China and the United States have both called for an immediate ceasefire, but clashes persist amid a long-standing border dispute rooted in colonial-era demarcations and contested temple sites. 

Thailand and Cambodia Agree to Immediate Ceasefire After Weeks of Deadly Border Fighting 

Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an immediate ceasefire aimed at ending weeks of intense border clashes that killed at least 47 people and displaced more than one million civilians, according to a joint statement issued Saturday. The truce, signed by both countries’ defense ministers at a border checkpoint, took effect at noon and applies to all forms of military action, including strikes on civilian areas, infrastructure, and military targets. Both sides pledged to freeze troop movements, facilitate the return of displaced civilians, cooperate on demining and cybercrime, and arrange the return of 18 captured Cambodian soldiers within 72 hours. The agreement follows three days of border talks convened after ASEAN emergency consultations, with the United Nations, European Union, United States, and China welcoming the ceasefire and urging good-faith implementation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the deal as a positive step toward easing civilian suffering and enabling lasting peace. Despite the announcement, skepticism remains among border residents traumatized by artillery, drone, and air strikes that spread across nearly all border provinces and shattered an earlier truce brokered by Washington. The conflict stems from a long-running territorial dispute over colonial-era border demarcations and ancient temple sites. While the ceasefire halts active fighting, unresolved border claims remain a key challenge to sustaining peace.

Thai Army Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach as Drone Flights Raise Tensions 

Thailand’s army accused Cambodia of violating a newly signed ceasefire by flying more than 250 drones into Thai airspace, raising doubts about the durability of the agreement reached after weeks of deadly border clashes. According to the Thai military, unmanned aerial vehicles crossed from Cambodia late Sunday, an action Bangkok described as provocative and inconsistent with commitments made under Saturday’s ceasefire, which called for halting hostilities, freezing troop movements, and reducing tensions. Thai officials warned the alleged breach could lead them to reconsider the planned release of 18 Cambodian soldiers captured earlier this year, a key confidence-building measure tied to the truce. Cambodia downplayed the incident, with Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn calling it a minor issue involving drone activity observed by both sides and saying it was being jointly investigated for swift resolution. The dispute emerged even as Cambodian and Thai foreign ministers concluded talks in China aimed at rebuilding trust, following fighting that killed dozens and displaced more than a million people. The conflict has repeatedly flared despite past ceasefires brokered by the United States, China, and ASEAN, and stems from a long-running territorial dispute over colonial-era border demarcations and contested temple sites. While diplomacy continues, unresolved boundary issues and mutual suspicion threaten efforts to restore stability along the Thai-Cambodian border. 

China Likely Deploys Over 100 DF-31 ICBMs, Nuclear Arsenal Expands Rapidly

A draft Pentagon report, cited by Reuters, indicates China has likely deployed more than 100 nuclear-armed, solid-fueled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) across three silo fields near its border with Mongolia. The report notes Beijing’s reluctance to engage in arms control talks, challenging U.S. efforts under President Donald Trump to promote denuclearization with China, Russia, and North Korea. Chinese officials deny any secret nuclear tests and reaffirm a no-first-use policy, defensive nuclear strategy, and adherence to non-proliferation commitments, emphasizing peaceful development and multilateral engagement. The DF-31 series, including DF-31, DF-31A, and DF-31AG variants, can carry a 500-kg warhead with 200–300 kiloton yield over 4,350–7,270 miles. First deployed in 2006, the missiles form part of a broader modernization effort: the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimates China now has roughly 600 nuclear warheads, with 276 capable of intercontinental range, and Pentagon projections suggest this could exceed 1,000 by 2030. Analysts note the opacity of China’s nuclear infrastructure and doctrine complicates assessments, though the country’s arsenal is widely considered the fastest-growing globally, reflecting a significant expansion of both warhead numbers and delivery systems over the past five years.

U.S. Approves $11B Taiwan Arms Sale, Signaling Strong Deterrence Against China 

The Trump administration has approved a potential $11 billion weapons sale to Taiwan, marking the second major arms package since President Donald Trump returned to office and underscoring Washington’s continued commitment to the island’s defense amid rising pressure from China. According to Taiwan’s foreign ministry, the package includes HIMARS rocket systems, howitzers, anti-tank missiles, drones, and spare parts for existing platforms, making it one of the largest proposed arms deals with Taipei in decades and comparable in scale to the $18 billion package approved under President George W. Bush in 2001, which was later reduced. While the United States does not formally recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, it remains Taipei’s most important security partner and arms supplier, with U.S. military support viewed as a critical deterrent against a potential Chinese attack. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly threatened to use force to bring it under its control, while intensifying military activity around the island. Taiwan’s defense ministry said the sale is expected to formally take effect in about a month and is unlikely to face serious opposition in the U.S. Congress due to strong bipartisan support for Taiwan’s defense. President Lai Ching-te’s government has pledged to increase defense spending, acknowledging that despite a growing domestic arms industry, Taiwan remains heavily reliant on U.S. weapons to counter China’s overwhelming military advantage.

China Conducts Large-Scale Taiwan Drill Simulating Blockade Amid Regional Tensions 

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched Justice Mission 2025, a major live-fire exercise around Taiwan involving its navy, air force, rocket force, and coast guard, simulating a blockade of key ports and testing sea-air coordination, anti-submarine operations, and maritime target strikes. The drills included at least 28 naval vessels—two entering Taiwan’s contiguous zone—and 89 aircraft, the largest daily sortie count in over a year, alongside four amphibious assault ships with helicopters. Some PLA aircraft had transponders on, signaling a more public demonstration of capabilities. Beijing framed the exercises as a warning against Taiwan independence and “external interference,” implicitly targeting the United States and Japan following a record $11-billion U.S. arms sale to Taipei and recent Japanese statements regarding potential military involvement. Taipei condemned the maneuvers, dispatching forces for counter-combat-readiness exercises, emphasizing that defending democracy is not provocation. Analysts note that the drills reflect both routine readiness training and a response to perceived provocations, continuing a trend of escalating gray-zone operations against Taiwan since 2016 and intensified after the August 2022 Pelosi visit. Justice Mission 2025 underscores Beijing’s dual approach: signaling capabilities to Taiwan and the region while preparing for potential full-scale invasion scenarios, with U.S. officials projecting Chinese invasion readiness by 2027, coinciding with the PLA centenary. 

China Warns Japan Against Revisiting Nuclear Ban Amid Regional Security Concerns 

China’s Foreign Ministry issued a strong warning after a senior Japanese official suggested Tokyo might reconsider its 77-year ban on nuclear weapons in response to escalating regional threats. The comments follow ongoing tensions over Taiwan, including Japanese warnings that a blockade around the island could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan and potentially justify intervention alongside U.S. forces. China’s spokesperson Guo highlighted Tokyo’s plutonium stockpiles and technological capacity to rapidly develop nuclear weapons, asserting that Japan should not “test the bottom line” of international norms. The Japanese official cited China’s nuclear expansion, North Korea’s advancing missile programs, and the strategic threat from Russia as reasons to explore a nuclear deterrent, though no formal policy changes are underway. Japan remains bound by its Three Non-Nuclear Principles and is a signatory to the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which recognizes only five nuclear-armed states. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration reaffirmed its commitment to these principles, while U.S. officials stressed the continuation of a credible nuclear deterrent to protect Japan and allies. Some lawmakers in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party have called for a potential review of the principles to permit U.S. nuclear deployments on strategic platforms within Japanese territory, raising questions about regional security and the future of East Asian nuclear policy.

China Showcases Weaponized Cargo Ship Concept, Signaling New Naval Strategy 

China appears to have unveiled a striking new naval concept featuring a commercial cargo ship heavily modified with containerized weapons, sensors, and self-defense systems, reinforcing concerns about Beijing’s intent to militarize its vast civilian fleet. Images circulating over Christmas show a medium-sized cargo vessel with containers repurposed into an improvised combat superstructure, including large phased-array radars, additional sensor domes, and close-in defensive systems such as a Type 1130 30mm CIWS and Type 726 decoy launchers. Most notable is a deck packed with containerized vertical launch systems arranged in a five-by-three configuration, each holding four launch tubes, giving the ship an estimated 60 large VLS cells—approaching the firepower of a modern destroyer. The configuration suggests a role as a picket or area air-defense ship, though the launchers could theoretically carry a range of missiles. Analysts caution that the setup may be a proof-of-concept or photo-ready mockup, raising questions about system integration, combat management software, and survivability on a commercial hull. Nonetheless, the display underscores China’s ability to rapidly convert civilian vessels into combat-capable platforms, a strategy that could complicate U.S. and allied naval planning as Beijing leverages its massive merchant fleet and shipbuilding capacity in pursuit of maritime dominance. 

GEOPOLITICS 

Denmark Flags U.S. as Potential Security Concern Amid Transatlantic Strains 

Denmark has, for the first time, identified the United States as a potential security concern in an annual report from its Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS), reflecting growing tensions within the transatlantic alliance. The report warns that the U.S. “uses economic power, including threats of high tariffs, to enforce its will” and “no longer rules out the use of military force, even against allies,” situating this concern within a broader analysis of great powers prioritizing their interests and leveraging force to achieve objectives. While the report primarily highlights strategic threats from Russia and China, it underscores European vulnerability, noting that “the military threat from Russia to NATO will increase” amid uncertainty over the U.S.’s role as Europe’s security guarantor. Relations between Denmark and Washington have been strained since President Trump expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, and recent divergences in U.S. and European approaches to Ukraine peace talks and the Trump administration’s confrontational national security strategy have exacerbated concerns. The report further notes that Russia may seek to exploit U.S. eagerness for a quick end to the war in Ukraine to drive a wedge between Europe and America, intertwining Moscow’s threat with transatlantic tensions and challenging Denmark’s reliance on traditional security partnerships. 

Paris Talks Aim to Disarm Hezbollah Amid Israeli Strikes 

French, Saudi, and U.S. officials will meet Thursday in Paris with the head of the Lebanese army to finalize a roadmap for Hezbollah’s disarmament, diplomats said, amid concerns that the 2024 U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed group could unravel. The ceasefire ended over a year of intense fighting that weakened Hezbollah, but both sides continue to accuse each other of violations, with Israeli airstrikes increasingly targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and even near Beirut. The Paris talks aim to establish robust mechanisms to support and verify disarmament while preventing Israeli escalation, particularly given Lebanon’s limited capacity to enforce the process and President Joseph Aoun’s reluctance to publicize disarmament efforts for fear of antagonizing the Shi’ite community. Officials indicated plans to reinforce the Lebanese army with assistance from French, U.S., and potentially U.N. military experts, alongside conferences early next year to strengthen the army and support reconstruction, especially in southern Lebanon. On Thursday, Israeli strikes hit Hezbollah targets in southern towns and the Bekaa Valley, including a military compound used for training and weapons storage, as well as a militant near Taybeh, prompting comments from Hezbollah-allied parliament speaker Nabih Berri that the attacks were “an Israeli message” to the Paris conference. 

Zelensky Rejects Any Peace Deal Ceding Donbas Amid Berlin Talks 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly stated that Kyiv will not accept any peace agreement that places the Donbas region under Russian control, following two days of talks in Berlin with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov described the discussions as achieving “real progress,” particularly on NATO-like security guarantees, yet Zelensky emphasized that territorial concessions remain unacceptable. U.S. officials reportedly claim that 90 percent of issues have been resolved, though the Kremlin’s maximalist stance—placing Russia’s economy on a wartime footing and rejecting existing peace proposals—has fundamentally undermined the talks, according to Yuriy Boyechko, CEO of Hope For Ukraine. The discussions focused on Article 5-style guarantees to protect Ukraine, but the question of ceding Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts remains unresolved, with the U.S. reportedly pushing Kyiv to consider full Russian control of Donbas. Analysts, including the Institute for the Study of War, note that Russia is unlikely to accept any settlement preserving Ukrainian territorial integrity, leaving a breakthrough distant. Zelensky acknowledged progress on security guarantees but reiterated that only a deal safeguarding sovereignty is acceptable, while Umerov expressed hope for an imminent agreement, though no timeline for direct negotiations between Zelensky and Putin exists. 

US Plans Tougher Energy Sanctions as Ukraine Peace Talks Advance 

The White House is preparing a new, more aggressive round of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector, contingent on Moscow rejecting a Trump-proposed peace deal for Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, measures could include Russian “shadow fleet” tankers and the traders facilitating oil shipments. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has described the current draft as “very workable” after two days of discussions in Berlin with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with presentation to the Kremlin expected soon. The proposed framework reportedly includes robust, legally binding security guarantees for Ukraine—so-called Article 5-style protections—and post-war recovery funding, but stops short of NATO membership, which Russia has demanded be constitutionally prohibited. Analysts note potential friction points: Russia likely views the security guarantees as a setup for future conflict with NATO, while Zelensky is balancing territorial concessions and security benefits, aiming to secure safeguards without rewarding Russian aggression. Critics, including Moon of Alabama, describe the negotiations as a “Flim Flam Theater,” highlighting that the US, Ukraine, and European powers are disputing details while neglecting Moscow’s key priorities. Observers warn that a true ceasefire is unlikely, as Russia seeks a comprehensive settlement defining a new European security architecture and asserting control over annexed territories, including Crimea and the four oblasts.

Putin Threatens Further Gains in Ukraine as Peace Talks Stall 

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Wednesday that Moscow will extend its territorial gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject Russia’s demands in ongoing peace negotiations. Speaking at a military meeting, Putin stressed that while Russia prefers a diplomatic resolution to “eliminate the root causes of the conflict,” it will resort to military measures to secure its “historical lands” if dialogue fails. He highlighted Russia’s strategic advantage along the front lines, the expansion of a “buffer security zone,” and the modernization of its nuclear arsenal, including the Oreshnik intermediate-range missile, claiming it is impossible to intercept. The statements come amid negotiations over a U.S.-drafted peace plan, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicating that strong security guarantees are nearly finalized, though disputes over territorial control remain unresolved. Moscow demands recognition of Crimea and four eastern regions as Russian territory, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from areas not under Russian control, and an end to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. Meanwhile, Russia continues daily missile and drone strikes across multiple fronts, including Zaporizhzhia, with dozens injured and infrastructure damaged. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined plans for further advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk, emphasizing accelerated offensive tempo and expansion of drone, jamming, and air defense capabilities, signaling Moscow’s intent to consolidate and expand control regardless of diplomatic efforts. 

U.S. Offers 15-Year Security Guarantees to Ukraine Amid Peace Talks with Russia 

The United States has proposed 15-year security guarantees for Ukraine as part of ongoing peace negotiations, though President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for commitments extending up to 50 years to deter further Russian aggression. Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday, where Trump described the talks as bringing Ukraine and Russia “closer than ever” to a settlement, but emphasized that negotiations could still collapse over unresolved issues, including territorial withdrawals and the status of Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Security guarantees reportedly cover monitoring and partner presence, though Russia opposes NATO troop deployment on Ukrainian soil. Trump also spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who claimed Ukraine launched drone attacks on his residence shortly after Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy—allegations Zelenskyy dismissed as false and intended to manipulate negotiations. Meanwhile, Putin continues to report military advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, emphasizing buffer zones along Russia’s border. French President Emmanuel Macron said Kyiv’s allies will meet in Paris in early January to finalize contributions to the guarantees. Zelenskyy seeks a national referendum on the 20-point peace plan, though a 60-day ceasefire required for voting remains unattainable, as Moscow demands a full settlement before any truce. Ukrainian civilians and veterans express skepticism over Russian intentions, warning that peace depends on recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial rights.

US Targets Iran’s “Shadow Fleet” with New Sanctions on 29 Vessels and Shipping Firms 

The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on 29 vessels, their management companies, and an Egyptian businessman Thursday, targeting Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet” for using deceptive shipping practices to export petroleum and fund the regime. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said the sanctioned tankers have transported hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian petroleum products—including fuel oil, bitumen, naphtha, and condensate—primarily to Asian end users. The fleet reportedly relies on front companies, frequent changes in ownership, and flag switching to evade international sanctions. Hatem Elsaid Farid Ibrahim Sakr, an Egyptian shipping businessman based in the UAE, and several of his companies were designated for managing tankers involved in large-scale Iranian oil shipments, some linked to Iran’s Ministry of Defense. The sanctions, imposed under Executive Order 13902, freeze all US-based assets of the listed entities and generally bar US persons from engaging with them. Treasury officials emphasized that the measures aim to disrupt Tehran’s financing of military and proxy activities and warned that violations could result in severe civil or criminal penalties. Since President Trump’s return to office, over 180 vessels tied to Iranian oil exports have been sanctioned, highlighting Washington’s ongoing maximum pressure campaign. 

 

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