Mid-April Sitrep Support

Mid-April Sitrep Support

MID-APRIL SITREP SUPPORT

LEAD STORIES

Islamic ‘EPIC City’ Planned for Texas, Gov Abbott Issues Warning 

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has ordered the developers of EPIC City, a proposed Islamic-themed town near Josephine, to halt construction within seven days, citing concerns over a lack of required permits. The project, led by the East Plano Islamic Center and its affiliate Community Capitol Partners, aims to build a 1,000-home community with a mosque, school, and sports facilities. The proposal has sparked controversy, with some accusing the developers of attempting to impose Sharia law, though the plans do not mention such intentions. Abbott's office stated that an investigation by the Texas Rangers and various state agencies is underway to explore potential criminal activity. Despite these claims, the planning firm involved in the project insists no construction has occurred yet, and fundraising efforts are still in the preliminary stages. EPIC City organizers assert that their project will comply with all state and federal laws, emphasizing integration and harmony within the broader community. Abbott has vowed to ensure strict enforcement of Texas laws against any violations.

Americans on the Left Think Trump Assassination ‘Justified’ According to Poll 

A recent survey conducted by the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) revealed that political violence is becoming increasingly accepted in the U.S. Among 1,264 respondents, over half of left-leaning Americans justified the assassination of President Donald Trump, with 55% endorsing it to some extent. Additionally, 48% found some justification for the assassination of Elon Musk, Trump's government efficiency czar. The survey showed concerning support for violent actions, with 57.6% agreeing that attacking Tesla dealerships to protest Musk’s ties to Trump was at least somewhat acceptable. NCRI highlighted that these attitudes reflect troubling trends in U.S. political culture, particularly among far-left ideologies. Musk, who has faced violent protests and arson attacks related to his work with Trump, criticized these movements, calling them the "party of violence." He also condemned attacks on Tesla-affiliated businesses as terrorism. The survey underscores the growing normalization of violence in political discourse, fueled in part by ideological divides, as well as online "memeification" of violent figures, including the alleged killer of a healthcare CEO.

Trump Tariffs Trigger Global Turmoil and Nationwide Anti-Trump Protests 

Wall Street is reeling from President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which have caused significant market disruption, wiping over $6 trillion from the stock market in just 48 hours. The DOW plunged by more than 3,900 points, marking its worst performance since the 2020 COVID lockdowns, while the S&P 500 dropped 6% in one day, with 486 of its stocks losing value. Economists warn that Trump’s high-risk trade policies may lead to a global recession, with JP Morgan predicting a 60% chance by the year’s end. Despite these downturns, Trump maintains an optimistic outlook, urging Americans to “hang tough” and calling the economic upheaval a “revolution.” Meanwhile, anti-Trump protests erupted across the U.S., with over 1,200 demonstrations, some targeting Trump’s supporters, including Elon Musk. In the midst of this, countries like Taiwan and Vietnam have sought tariff relief, while others, including China and the EU, have responded with retaliatory measures. The White House, however, downplays stock market losses, emphasizing the importance of job creation and affordable goods.

European Stocks Erode After Trump Tariffs Announced 

European defense stocks plunged Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs, triggering the sector’s steepest selloff in years and fueling fears of a global economic slowdown. The Aerospace and Defense Stock Index, which includes major firms like Rheinmetall and BAE Systems, dropped 8.9% by early morning following an 8% decline last Friday. Once up 30% in 2025, the index has now lost much of its earlier gains, which were driven by expectations of rising European defense spending. Germany’s Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, and Renk saw share drops of 9–10%, while France’s Dassault Aviation and Thales fell 6–9%, Sweden’s Saab slipped 7%, and the U.K.’s BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Chemring Group, Babcock International, and Qinetiq lost 4–7%. Analysts cited a correction following sharp valuation increases earlier in the year, as investors shift profits to safer assets. Meanwhile, China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements are raising concerns about supply chain disruptions. Despite strong performance earlier in 2025, Monday’s selloff signals a rapid shift in investor sentiment within the European defense sector.

China Vows to ‘Fight to the End’, Rejecting Trump’s Latest Tarriff Threat 

China on Tuesday firmly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's latest threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, vowing to “fight till the end” and accusing Washington of blackmail and economic bullying, according to state agency Xinhua. The Chinese Commerce Ministry condemned the proposed escalation, calling U.S. tariffs “groundless” and “unilateral bullying,” asserting Beijing’s countermeasures were legitimate efforts to protect its sovereignty, development, and global trade norms. Trump had previously imposed a 34% “reciprocal” tariff, now threatening to raise it by another 50% if China does not reverse its matching tariffs. This follows a broader U.S. tariff strategy ranging from 10% to 50% targeting multiple countries. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian criticized the actions as “protectionist,” while Xinhua editor Liu Hong proposed retaliatory measures, including suspending fentanyl cooperation, increasing tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, banning American poultry, restricting U.S. services and entertainment, and launching IP investigations into American firms in China. The standoff has heightened global economic tensions and roiled markets amid fears of an escalating trade war. 

EU Offers ‘Zero for Zero Tariffs on Industrial Goods’ with US, ‘Ready to Negotiate’ 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Monday that the European Union (EU) is ready to negotiate tariffs with the U.S., offering a “zero-for-zero” tariff agreement for industrial goods. This comes after the Trump administration imposed a 20% tariff on EU imports as part of his “Liberation Day” tariffs, set to take effect on Wednesday. European leaders hope to avoid this hefty tax by reaching a deal. Von der Leyen emphasized Europe’s willingness to negotiate but warned that the EU is prepared to retaliate if necessary, including responding to trade diversion effects. The 20% tariff is in addition to the 25% steel and aluminum tariff Trump imposed last month, affecting $28 billion in goods. In response, the EU imposed its own tariffs on U.S. meat, dairy, and alcohol, which will fully take effect on April 13. EU representatives are also preparing additional retaliatory tariffs, but they remain open to negotiations, with EU Trade Minister Maros Sefcovic stressing that the bloc will not wait indefinitely. 

130 Counties Now Enmgaged with US Seeking Tariff Deals 

The number of countries engaging the U.S. on trade has surged since President Donald Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett revealing Sunday that nearly 70 nations had reached out—up from 50 the prior week. Trump’s plan included a 90-day pause on tariffs for most nations, reverting to a 10% rate, while raising China’s tariffs to over 100%. Hassett emphasized the strategy aims to address U.S. overdependence on foreign goods, especially in potential conflict scenarios. He outlined a two-track negotiation process: while discussions with China remain stalled, talks with countries like Japan, Korea, and India are moving quickly, with some deals nearing completion. Trump opted for the temporary tariff pause to accommodate this momentum rather than finalize isolated agreements. Hassett dismissed notions of inconsistency among top trade officials—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer—saying Trump provides the strategic direction and his job is to ensure implementation. He described the current global response as unprecedented and overwhelmingly positive. 

US Tourism Industry Targeted by China as They Warn Their Citizen Against US Travel 

On Wednesday, the Chinese government issued a travel warning, advising citizens against visiting the United States due to the deteriorating economic and trade relations between the two countries and domestic security concerns in the U.S. This warning comes as the trade war between the U.S. and China intensifies. In 2023, Chinese visitors contributed $20.2 billion to the U.S. economy through tourism and education-related spending. The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism cautioned citizens to carefully consider the risks of traveling to the U.S., echoing a similar advisory issued during the early stages of the trade war under President Trump's first term. The warning coincides with the escalating trade conflict, where China has retaliated with an 84% tariff on American goods following Trump's imposition of a 125% tariff. Despite tensions, President Trump remarked that China desires a deal but is uncertain how to begin negotiations. The U.S. is preparing to engage in trade talks with allies, particularly Japan, before addressing China. 

Trump Touts US has Secret Weapons 

President Donald Trump responded to concerns about the escalating trade war with China by emphasizing the strength of U.S. military power. After raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, Trump dismissed fears of a broader conflict, stating that China’s President Xi Jinping would not allow such escalation. Trump claimed the U.S. possesses powerful weapons “that nobody has any idea what it is,” asserting they are more advanced than any other country’s. He did not specify the weapons but referred to previous remarks about a "super duper missile" capable of extreme speeds, which he had touted in 2020. While Trump’s statement highlighted U.S. capabilities, it also came amid growing concerns over Russia and China’s advancements in hypersonic weapons, which they have deployed in military operations. The U.S. is working to catch up, with the successful test of the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon in December, developed by Lockheed Martin. Despite these developments, Trump remained confident in U.S. dominance in military technology. 

Crucial Rare Earth Minerals Exports Halted by China to Impact Key Industries 

China has halted exports of several heavy rare earth metals and magnets—effective April 3—impacting global tech, automotive, aerospace, and defense industries, particularly in the United States. The restrictions cover seven rare earth elements, including dysprosium and yttrium, which are essential for producing electric vehicles, advanced electronics, and military hardware. While China claims the ban applies to all countries, experts like Drew Horn, a former Trump administration official, warn that Beijing has long threatened such moves due to its dominant position in the rare earth supply chain. Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies noted this tactic has been used before and may backfire if perceived as overplayed. According to The New York Times, China now requires special export licenses for the affected materials and magnets—90% of which are produced there—but has barely begun establishing a licensing system, raising concerns about prolonged disruptions. Some reports suggest China will maintain general rare earth exports but intentionally restrict U.S. access, exacerbating fears of supply shortages and strategic vulnerabilities.

US Heavy Dependence on Chinese Rare Earth Imports  

In retaliation to Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods, China has imposed new export controls on seven rare earth elements, including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. These elements are essential for products like electric cars, semiconductors, and military equipment such as missiles and drones. While the new rules don't constitute a full export ban, they require a special export license, providing China more control over who can access these minerals. This could potentially block U.S. defense contractors from obtaining these critical supplies, which are difficult to source elsewhere. The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earth imports, with China supplying 70% of U.S. rare earth imports between 2020 and 2023. Yttrium, which is almost exclusively sourced from China, is particularly vital for electronics, lasers, and ceramics. Although the U.S. has made strides in increasing domestic rare earth production, it remained 80% net import reliant for these materials in 2024, down from 100% in 2020. 

BORDER CRISIS

Trump Illegal Immigrant Deportations Hit the 100,000 Mark 

A recent report reveals that the Trump administration has deported over 100,000 illegal immigrants since January 20, marking a significant crackdown on illegal immigration during President Trump’s second term. The Department of Homeland Security confirmed that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials have arrested 113,000 illegal immigrants and deported more than 100,000 since Inauguration Day. Sources indicate that these deportations reflect the president’s commitment to removing illegal immigrants, including criminals and terrorist suspects, as promised during his campaign. While the identities and criminal histories of those arrested were not disclosed, most deportations are reportedly directed to Mexico. Additionally, illegal border crossings plummeted to 7,000 in March, a 94% decrease compared to the 137,000 crossings in March 2024 under former President Biden’s administration. Department of Homeland Security sources attribute this dramatic drop to the "Trump effect," claiming that stricter enforcement has made illegal immigration less appealing, with immigrants now fearing legal consequences.

NORTHCOM Boss Seeks Approval to Shoot Down Cartel Drones 

Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, commander of U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), testified before the House Armed Services Committee, advocating for expanded counter-drone authority, particularly near the Mexican border. He proposed changes to the "rule of force" to allow military forces to shoot down or neutralize drones surveilling U.S. troops within five miles of the border, even if they aren’t immediately threatening. Current laws restrict drone takedowns, especially for mobile U.S. troops, leaving them vulnerable to surveillance and attacks. The growing use of drones, especially by Mexican drug cartels for surveillance, smuggling, and weaponization, has prompted increased military support, including the deployment of ground-based radars. Guillot also emphasized the need to extend counter-drone capabilities to all U.S. bases and increase the perimeter for defensive actions. Currently, only about half of U.S. bases are authorized to defend against drones. Guillot's request aligns with broader concerns over evolving drone threats and the military's need for greater legal flexibility and advanced counter-drone systems, including electronic and cyber warfare tools.

40 Tren De Aragua Gang Members Arrest in Texas 

Texas DPS and the FBI announced the arrest of over 40 individuals linked to the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua after executing a search warrant at an undisclosed Hays County residence. The warrant followed FBI intelligence on a gathering of suspected gang affiliates. Authorities did not specify the charges or provide details on the detainees’ connections to the gang. State and federal prosecutors will review evidence to determine potential charges. Tren de Aragua, originating in Venezuelan prisons, has been a focus of law enforcement, with the Trump administration vowing to deport members as part of broader immigration policies. Relatives of deported Venezuelans insist they are not gang members. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, DPS, and local agencies have investigated the gang for over a year but did not clarify where detainees are being held. The San Antonio Police Department assisted in the investigation but not the raid. Law enforcement agencies declined further comment, citing an ongoing investigation into the gang’s activities across multiple jurisdictions.

Trump Gets Win, Deportation Can Continue Under Alien Enemies Act Rules Supreme Court 

In a 5-4 ruling on Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to resume deportations under the Alien Enemies Act (AEA), overturning a lower court's temporary restraining order that had halted the removal of alleged Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang members without court hearings. The decision follows the controversial March 15 deportations of hundreds to El Salvador, which critics argued denied detainees due process. The Court ruled that while the government may proceed with removals under the AEA, detainees must be given timely notice and the opportunity to seek habeas relief before deportation. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented, warning the ruling marked a troubling shift toward procedural inconsistency and unchecked executive power. The AEA, a rarely used statute last invoked during major wars, has sparked alarm over its application in immigration enforcement. Attorneys for the Venezuelan plaintiffs argued the ruling opens the door to the arbitrary targeting of immigrant groups without oversight, potentially enabling mass expulsions based solely on executive designation without judicial review or individualized hearings.

To Locate 7 Million Immigrants, DHS Wants Use IRS Data 

Federal immigration officials have escalated their efforts to locate up to 7 million undocumented individuals in the U.S. by seeking access to confidential tax data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). This move represents a significant shift in how the Trump administration aims to use the tax system for immigration enforcement. Previously, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sought help locating 700,000 individuals under final removal orders but now plans to query up to 7 million people. While IRS officials are concerned about the legality and ethics of sharing taxpayer information for this purpose, they are negotiating with DHS, with Acting IRS Commissioner Melanie Krause expecting eventual compliance. Normally, tax information is confidential, with strict penalties for unauthorized disclosure, but it can be shared with law enforcement under limited circumstances. This request, however, could violate these rules, as illegal immigration is a civil offense, not criminal. The IRS has previously rejected similar DHS requests, but new leadership has reignited the negotiations.

US Troops on the Southern Border are Being Spied on by Cartel Drones

U.S. military officials confirmed that Mexican drug cartels have been using drones to observe U.S. troops stationed along the southern border. Around 10,000 U.S. military personnel are currently deployed under President Trump's administration as part of the "Joint Task Force – Southern Border" mission to assist Customs and Border Patrol in securing the border. Lt. Col. Lukas Berg stated that their role is to support efforts in controlling illegal immigration and preserving U.S. territorial integrity. The U.S. military has reported observing cartel drones monitoring military operations. While the military has the right to take action if the drones pose a threat, they are not authorized to shoot them down unless they are directly endangering U.S. troops. Gen. Gregory M. Guillot of U.S. Northern Command has proposed a change to the rules of engagement, seeking approval to shoot down or neutralize drones within five miles of the border, especially if they are surveilling U.S. troops or planning attacks. 

More than 50 Intel Flights Over Southern Border by USAF Since Trump Took Office 

The U.S. Air Force has flown over 50 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions along the southern border as part of a broader Pentagon initiative to counter drug cartels, human trafficking, and illegal migration. These sorties, supporting U.S. Northern Command, have involved high-altitude U-2 spy planes, RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft, and RQ-4 Global Hawk drones, logging over 570 flight hours. Crews are supported by intelligence analysts and logistical teams, including operations at Guantanamo Bay. Deportation and troop transport missions have been conducted using C-17 and C-130 aircraft. The surveillance effort is part of a joint military operation also involving Army UH-72 and UH-60 helicopters, MQ-1 Grey Eagles, and Navy P-8 Poseidon aircraft. Aerostat radar balloons and MQ-9 drones operated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection supplement the aerial network. Two Navy destroyers patrol U.S. coastal waters, while the Joint Intelligence Task Force-Southern Border coordinates operations from Arizona. Army Maj. Gen. Scott Naumann reports that Mexican cartels have escalated their own aerial surveillance using drones, targeting U.S. forces along the border amid a deployment of 6,600 active-duty troops.

Trump Admin Considering Allowing Drone Strikes on Mexican Cartels 

A new report reveals that President Donald Trump’s administration is contemplating drone strikes against Mexican drug cartels to combat illegal drug trafficking along the U.S.-Mexico border. Six anonymous sources told NBC News that U.S. intelligence, military, and law enforcement officials are discussing the option of targeting cartel operatives, warehouses, and vehicles, with the possibility of cooperating with the Mexican government. While no final decision has been made, the White House has labeled the cartels a national security threat, prompting increased U.S. military and CIA surveillance flights over Mexico. These flights, conducted with Mexican collaboration, aim to gather intelligence for any potential strikes. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected the idea of U.S. intervention, emphasizing that Mexico would not allow foreign interference in its affairs. She argued that addressing the root causes of drug trafficking through arrests and investigation is a more effective solution. While the Trump administration prefers coordination with Mexico, unilateral action remains a last resort due to the potential strain on bilateral relations. 

Illegal Migrants Who Fail to Self-Deport Could Face $998 Fine Per Day 

The Trump administration is proposing a $998 daily fine for illegal migrants who refuse to self-deport, potentially including property confiscation for non-payment. This proposal is based on a 1996 law and follows a similar policy enacted in 2018, which levied fines on migrants who sought sanctuary in churches, imposing $60,000 fines per person. Adviser Stephen Miller has pushed for reintroducing these fines and property seizures to incentivize voluntary departure, although the current system lacks infrastructure to track and collect these fines, requiring new operations and staffing. The proposal, still in the early stages, could accelerate the self-deportation trend, with reports showing migrants hiring coyotes to assist with leaving the U.S. Additionally, the Trump administration has ended the Biden-era CHNV program, which provided temporary status to migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and has started sending letters to inform beneficiaries that their status has expired and they must leave or face expedited removal. This action is part of a broader effort to reduce the illegal migrant population across the U.S. 

Trump Orders Transfer of Land Along Southern Border to DoD for Military Control 

President Donald Trump has directed the transfer of a federal land corridor along the U.S.-Mexico border, known as the Roosevelt Reservation, to the Department of Defense for military control. The move aims to bypass the Posse Comitatus Act, which generally prohibits U.S. troops from engaging in domestic law enforcement. By designating the area as part of an Army base, the military could legally detain migrants and enforce security, though this action may face legal challenges. The Roosevelt Reservation, a 60-foot-wide buffer zone running from New Mexico to California, had previously been managed by the Interior Department. The Pentagon will begin testing the transfer in New Mexico, where the Army will add fencing and warning signs, allowing military personnel to arrest unauthorized individuals. Any detained migrants would be handed over to local law enforcement. Legal experts argue that this transfer could be challenged in court, as the military’s primary purpose—securing the border—may not meet the legal criteria for exceptions under the military purpose doctrine. 

Trump Stops Benefits to Thousands of Criminal Aliens Including Some on Terror Watchlist 

The Trump administration has revoked temporary immigration parole and federal benefits for over 6,300 foreign nationals flagged as national security risks, fulfilling a campaign promise to tighten immigration enforcement. Effective April 8, individuals paroled into the U.S. since 2023—identified as having criminal records or appearing in the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Database—had their parole revoked. Their Social Security numbers were moved to the Ineligible Master File, barring access to benefits like Social Security and Medicaid. This follows the Department of Homeland Security's March 25 decision to terminate the CHNV parole programs, which allowed citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to enter the U.S. under Biden-era criteria. DHS said these programs failed to reduce illegal immigration or align with Trump’s foreign policy goals. Remaining CHNV parolees must leave by April 24 unless granted individual exceptions. White House press secretary Liz Huston stated the move removes financial incentives for illegal immigration and encourages self-deportation. The changes were ordered under Executive Order 14165, “Securing Our Borders,” signed by Trump on January 20 to align parole policies with his administration’s priorities. 

BOHICA!

French Foreign Minister Claims War ‘Almost Inevitable’ in Iran if Nuke Talks Fail 

France's foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, warned that military conflict with Iran could become "almost inevitable" if negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program fail. Barrot stressed that such a confrontation would severely destabilize the region. His remarks follow heightened tensions, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening military action if Iran continues its nuclear development, a stance that has provoked a response from Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Barrot reiterated France's priority to reach a "verifiable" agreement that limits Iran's nuclear activities, aligning with Western concerns that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, which Tehran denies. Meanwhile, France plans to file a complaint at the International Court of Justice against Iran over the detention of two French nationals, Cecile Kohler and Jacques Paris, accused of attempting to incite protests. France also plans additional sanctions against Iranian officials responsible for "state hostage-taking." Barrot’s statements reflect growing frustration with Iran’s actions and an intensified European response. 

Defense Officials Say Arms Needed to Deter China Being Drained by Attacks on Yemen 

The United States has deployed two aircraft carriers, B-2 stealth bombers, fighter jets, and missile defense systems to the Middle East amid ongoing operations in Yemen, where the bombing campaign has surpassed $1 billion in costs. However, some U.S. officials express concern that focusing resources on the anti-Houthi campaign could weaken readiness in the Pacific, particularly for potential conflict with China, which remains a top U.S. priority. Defense officials warn that valuable munitions, such as long-range precision weapons, may have to be relocated from the Asia-Pacific region to the Middle East, impacting U.S. strategic posture in countering China. Meanwhile, despite heavy U.S. involvement, the Houthis continue to launch attacks on Israel and U.S. warships. Critics argue that the U.S. military’s focus on Middle Eastern conflicts, including support for Ukraine, has depleted its stockpiles and strained resources needed to deter China’s growing military power. As tensions rise in the region, President Trump has signaled his intent to continue the Yemen campaign, with no clear path to resolution or ceasefire.

Pentagon to get Massive $1Trillion Budget Touts Trump 

US President Donald Trump announced a record defense budget of around $1 trillion, despite ongoing efforts to cut federal spending. During a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, Trump emphasized the necessity of military strength due to the many "bad forces" threatening the US, stating that "nobody’s seen anything like it." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this sentiment, promising to spend taxpayer dollars wisely on "lethality and readiness." In contrast, the Pentagon proposed an 8% budget cut in February, focusing on technologies like drones, submarines, and border defense operations. Trump's proposed defense budget follows a $895.2 billion current allocation, but the Pentagon has failed to pass an audit for seven consecutive years. This defense spending increase comes alongside Trump's broader efforts to cut federal expenditures through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk. Under DOGE, around 280,000 federal workers have been laid off in recent months as part of a push to reduce government size and spending. 

Zelensky Offers to Buy 10 Patriot Missile Systems for $15BN 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered to purchase 10 U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems for $15 billion to shield densely populated areas from relentless Russian missile and drone strikes. He said he presented the proposal to both former President Joe Biden’s administration and current President Donald Trump, stating Ukraine is ready to pay in full. The move follows intensified Russian attacks, including a strike on Sumy on April 13 that killed 34 and another on April 4 in Kryvyi Rih that left 20 dead. Despite a partial U.S.-brokered ceasefire on March 11, Russian aerial bombardments continue. Zelenskyy also seeks U.S. licenses to manufacture Patriot systems and missiles domestically, citing slow delivery timelines. Trump criticized Zelenskyy’s request, questioning the wisdom of provoking a war with a more powerful adversary while relying on foreign arms. The U.S. has already provided three Patriot systems, though experts deem them insufficient amid production bottlenecks. Zelenskyy’s broader $50 billion defense request includes European financial support and investment in Ukraine’s air defense industry, as Kyiv urges urgent action following escalating Russian attacks. 

 

WAR (and rumors of war) 

US MILITARY

US B-2 Bombers Taking Part in Houthis Strike as a Warmup for Attacks on Iran? 

The U.S. Air Force deployed B-2A Spirit bombers from Diego Garcia to strike Houthi-controlled areas in northern Yemen, targeting a military airfield and a meeting of high-ranking Ansar Allah members. This move signals a show of force toward Iran amid rising tensions. The Pentagon recently relocated B-2 bombers from Whiteman AFB, Missouri, to Diego Garcia, positioning them closer to the Middle East, with analysts suggesting the strikes could serve as a real-world test of attack scenarios. Since March 28, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted at least 62 airstrikes on Houthi infrastructure, including three military bases, ammunition depots, and government buildings. A March 30 strike in Hajjah Governorate targeted a vehicle carrying suspected high-ranking Houthi leaders. In response, the Houthis launched three missile and drone attacks on U.S. Navy vessels, though CENTCOM has not confirmed them. The deployment of B-2 bombers has fueled speculation that the U.S. may be preparing similar operations against Iran, particularly as tensions over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions escalate.

Attacks ‘Have Only Just Begun’, Trumps Warning to the Houthis if Red Sea Attacks Continue 

On Monday, President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to the Houthis in Yemen and Iran, emphasizing the success of U.S. military strikes against Houthi forces. Trump stated that the Houthis had been "decimated" by relentless air and sea attacks over the past two weeks, with many of their fighters and leaders eliminated. He reiterated that U.S. operations would continue until the Houthis no longer posed a threat to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, demanding that they cease targeting U.S. ships or face further retaliation. This escalation follows Houthi actions, including enforcing a blockade on Red Sea shipping and launching drone and missile strikes on Israel in solidarity with Gaza. Trump contrasted his firm approach with the previous administration's more restrained response, signaling an increase in pressure on the Iran-backed group. Despite acknowledging heavy losses, the Houthis vowed to continue their resistance. Meanwhile, Iran reportedly prepared missile launchers in anticipation of a potential U.S. strike, further escalating tensions in the region. 

Idaho Air National Guard Deploys A-10 Warthogs to Middle East 

The Idaho Air National Guard deployed multiple A-10 attack aircraft and over 300 Airmen to the Middle East on March 29 as part of U.S. Central Command operations. The deployment follows the arrival of B-2 stealth bombers at Diego Garcia, a strategic location near Yemen, where the U.S. has intensified strikes against the Houthis. While the exact mission of the A-10s remains unclear, the move aligns with broader military efforts to reinforce airpower in the region. The deployment’s duration depends on operational needs, though reports suggest a six-month stationing. A-10s, known for close air support and armor-piercing capabilities, have played key roles in Middle Eastern conflicts, including recent operations against militant threats. This deployment follows previous A-10 deployments in 2023 and late 2024 amid regional instability. The 124th Fighter Wing, which has operated A-10s since 1996, will transition to F-16s in 2027 as the A-10 fleet is phased out. The buildup of U.S. air assets continues amid heightened tensions and military activity in the Middle East.

US F-35s Deployed to Middle East to Support Strikes on Houthis 

The U.S. military has increased its presence in the Middle East, deploying additional F-35 fighters to Jordan as part of a continued campaign against Yemen's Houthi rebels, who have been targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea. The advanced F-35A jets, equipped with stealth capabilities and advanced weaponry, have already been used in airstrikes against the Houthis to reopen shipping lanes. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also extended the deployment of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group and announced the deployment of the USS Carl Vinson strike group. In addition, the Pentagon has sent A-10 Warthogs, B-2 stealth bombers, and redirected air defense systems like Patriot and THAAD batteries from South Korea to bolster defense in the region. This military buildup signals U.S. resolve in protecting its interests against Iranian-backed forces, with President Trump warning the Houthis to cease attacks or face more severe consequences. Despite over 100 U.S. strikes on Houthi positions, the group has remained defiant, continuing its maritime attacks. 

Okinawa Japan to See Large Deployment of US Surveillance Drones 

The U.S. military will deploy MQ-4C Triton long-range surveillance drones to Okinawa, Japan, to enhance intelligence gathering and surveillance in the region, particularly around Taiwan, Tokyo’s defense minister announced Tuesday. The drones will arrive at Kadena Air Base on Okinawa in the coming weeks as part of efforts to strengthen U.S.-Japan defense cooperation amidst growing tensions with China over Taiwan. Japan has increasingly faced Chinese pressure, and analysts view China's military drills near Taiwan as potential preludes to a future takeover. The deployment of the Tritons, known for their high-altitude, long-endurance capabilities, comes as Japan’s military has scrambled jets more frequently in response to suspected Chinese drones in its southern waters. The MQ-4C can operate for over 24 hours, covering distances up to 13,700 kilometers. Additionally, Japan plans to acquire smaller attack drones as part of a broader defense modernization effort. This move aligns with U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for NATO members and Asia-Pacific allies to boost military spending and enhance regional defense capabilities against China and North Korea.

Massive Joint War Training Spanning the Pacific Being Planned by Navy 

The U.S. Department of Defense is shifting its focus to joint-force rehearsals in preparation for potential large-scale conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific region. Historically, the U.S. military's services conducted separate training exercises, but Vice Adm. Michael Boyle emphasized the need for a more integrated approach to ensure effective combat strategies across vast battlefields. This change aims to refine the requirements needed for joint operations, especially in a future war scenario. Boyle pointed out that traditional war games and exercises failed to validate the necessary capabilities for joint combat. As a result, the Pentagon has incorporated various branches of the military, including the Navy, Air Force, Army, Marine Corps, Space Force, and Cyber Command, into large-scale joint rehearsals, particularly in the Pacific. These drills focus on integrating future capabilities and ensuring readiness for a potential conflict by 2040 or 2050. Exercises like REFORPAC and Bamboo Eagle, which involve U.S. allies, are central to this effort, preparing forces for a complex, high-threat environment.  

Two USAF F-35 Squadrons will Reach Full Readiness at Lakenheath UK in the Fall of 2025 

The U.S. Air Force is set to reach full operational capability with both of its F-35 squadrons at RAF Lakenheath in the U.K. by fall 2025, according to Gen. Christopher Cavoli of U.S. European Command. The first squadron, the 495th “Valkyries,” became operational in late 2021, while the second, the 493rd “Grim Reapers,” is expected to be fully active this year. Together, they’ll operate 52 F-35A stealth fighters, bolstering NATO’s fifth-generation airpower near Russia. The F-35A is currently the only fifth-gen fighter certified to carry the B61-12 nuclear bomb, fueling speculation that Lakenheath may again host U.S. nuclear weapons. Reports, including from the Federation of American Scientists, highlight Pentagon budget language referencing a “surety dormitory”—a term linked to nuclear security—though no official confirmation has followed. Lakenheath previously hosted nuclear weapons during the Cold War but saw their removal in 2008. The U.S. currently shares about 100 B61 bombs across five NATO allies. The renewed F-35 presence could signal enhanced deterrence and a potential revival of nuclear infrastructure at the base. 

New Nuclear Bomb Production Increases Fast-Tracked by US 

In response to escalating global security threats, the U.S. is accelerating the production of its new B61-13 nuclear bomb by over 25%, shortening its timeline by seven months. Sandia National Laboratories, overseeing the development of the B61-13, reprioritized qualification activities to streamline production. Initially expected to enter production in 2024, the B61-13 is now central to enhancing U.S. nuclear deterrence amidst increasing global instability. The U.S. Department of Energy emphasized that the new bomb will provide the president with enhanced strike options, particularly against hardened, large-area military targets. Launched in 2023, the B61-13 program responds to concerns that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could trigger a larger regional conflict. With a yield of 360 kilotons—24 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb—the B61-13 is a highly destructive weapon deployable by strategic aircraft like the B-21 Raider and the retiring B-2 Spirit. The bomb's precision and power will strengthen NATO's collective defense, especially under Article 5, ensuring the U.S. and allies can effectively counter strategic threats. 

Sec Def Hegseth Says US Military Ready to Make Sure Iran Never Gets a Nuclear Bomb 

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed that the United States seeks a diplomatic solution to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon but is prepared for military action if necessary. In indirect talks in Oman, U.S. and Iranian diplomats made initial progress, with Hegseth calling the discussions "productive." He emphasized that while the U.S. does not want to resort to military force, it has the capability to take decisive action if talks fail. President Donald Trump echoed this sentiment, stating that military intervention, potentially alongside Israel, remains a possibility if diplomatic efforts collapse. Trump’s comments followed earlier warnings, including a stark message in March that a lack of agreement could lead to bombing. The U.S. had withdrawn from the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal with Iran in 2018, and experts now suggest Iran could soon be capable of producing a nuclear weapon, though Tehran denies any such intentions. The ongoing talks are critical in addressing Western concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. 

FORTRESS EUROPE

Ukraine to get $970MN in Military Aid from Denmark 

Denmark has approved a 6.7 billion Danish kroner ($970 million) military aid package for Ukraine, covering support from 2025 to 2027. Funded through the Ukraine Foundation, the package includes air defense, artillery, and financial contributions to Ukraine’s air force. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized the need for sustained assistance amid the evolving security situation. This marks Denmark’s 25th aid package since the war began, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities. The framework allocates 1.4 billion kroner ($203 million) from 2025 to 2027 for artillery and ammunition via allied cooperation, with additional funds directed toward air defense, drone development, and IT systems. Denmark will also contribute 2 billion kroner ($290 million) in 2026 and 2027 to enhance Ukraine’s defense industry, recognizing its growing production capacity. In 2024, Denmark allocated 4.4 billion kroner ($637 million) to Ukraine’s defense sector. The Danish Ministry of Defense is coordinating with the E.U. and allies to refine oversight and auditing mechanisms for future aid distribution.

Little Left to Defend Greenland After Demark Excessive Donations to Ukraine 

Denmark has been one of Ukraine's top four military donors, providing significant support in the ongoing war against Russia, with contributions including F-16 fighter jets, tanks, and anti-tank weapons. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized the nation's commitment to Ukraine, which he described as a source of national pride. However, Denmark now faces diplomatic tension with the United States, following President Trump's controversial comments about potentially acquiring Greenland, a Danish territory. Trump's remarks, suggesting military force could be used in discussions, have sparked backlash from Danish officials, including Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who criticized the tone of the U.S. discourse. Amid this spat, Russian media have seized on Denmark's military aid to Ukraine, accusing the country of undermining its own defense capabilities by heavily depleting its arms stockpiles. Russia has highlighted Denmark's contribution to the proxy war, pointing out the risks of weakening its military while engaging in the conflict. The controversy raises concerns about Denmark's ability to secure Arctic territories like Greenland. 

Multinational Force Planned by UK, France, Ukraine Military Chiefs to Deter Russia 

Senior military officials from the U.K., France, and Ukraine met in Kyiv this week to advance plans for a multinational force aimed at deterring future Russian aggression, as part of a broader “Coalition of the Willing” spearheaded by the U.K. U.K. Chief of the Defense Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin led discussions on the proposed force’s size and composition, with participation expected from around 30 countries offering land, air, and maritime support. U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey emphasized the coalition’s unity versus Russia’s isolation, highlighting continued high-level meetings in London, Paris, and upcoming gatherings in Brussels. The talks align with U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s four-point strategy: accelerating weapons delivery, strengthening Ukraine’s long-term defense, securing international assurances, and maintaining pressure on Moscow. The U.K. has contributed over £4.5 billion in military aid this year, including recent drone, tank, and air defense packages. A £1.6 billion missile contract and £2.26 billion loan from frozen Russian assets were also announced. Healey vowed ongoing support, declaring, “We will not jeopardize the peace by forgetting about the war.”

Burner Phones Issued to US-Bound EU Officials 

The EU has updated its travel guidelines for officials visiting the U.S., advising the use of burner phones, minimal-data laptops, and anti-surveillance sleeves to reduce the risk of espionage, the Financial Times reported Monday. The directive, issued ahead of IMF and World Bank meetings, reflects rising tensions following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff hikes on EU imports. Although Trump paused the new tariffs for 90 days, a 10% baseline duty remains, and the EU has threatened retaliatory levies on major U.S. tech firms like Meta and Google if negotiations fail. Sources claim EU officials are increasingly wary of U.S. surveillance, likening new precautions to those used when traveling to Ukraine or China. One source even stated, “The transatlantic alliance is over.” The move underscores broader friction, including frustration over NATO burden-sharing, Trump’s threats to pull security guarantees, and the EU’s exclusion from U.S.-Russia discussions on Ukraine. Analyst Luuk van Middelaar called the new guidance a pragmatic response, referencing past surveillance scandals like the Obama-era spying on German Chancellor Angela Merkel. 

MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL

‘Strong’ Response Warns Khamenei if Iran is Attacked by US 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of strong retaliation if the U.S. attacks Iran, responding to President Donald Trump’s recent threat to bomb the country if no nuclear deal is reached. Khamenei, in a speech on Eid al-Fitr, condemned Trump’s remarks, stating that any action taken against Iran would result in a counterattack. Trump’s statement, made in an interview, included a threat to bomb Iran if it fails to negotiate over its nuclear program, while also suggesting the imposition of secondary tariffs. Since taking office in January, Trump has intensified his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, reimposing sanctions and withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal. Despite the U.S. demands for nuclear talks, Iran has maintained its position of not engaging directly with the U.S. under the threat of military action but has left the door open for "indirect negotiations" through intermediaries like Oman. Iran continues to deny accusations of pursuing nuclear weapons, asserting its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Report States that Iran is Planning a First Strike Against Diego Garcia 

The Iranian military is reportedly considering an attack on the U.S. base at Diego Garcia in response to the stationing of stealth B-2 bombers there, which are seen as a potential threat to Iran. Discussions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) suggest targeting the bombers if U.S. threats escalate. The IRGC is preparing for all-out war, with missile launchers on high alert, and commanders have been instructed to ensure the protection of nuclear facilities. The decision is tied to U.S. President Trump’s recent threats to bomb Iran if no nuclear deal is reached, accompanied by the potential imposition of secondary tariffs. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, warned of severe retaliation if the U.S. takes action. Additionally, a senior adviser to Khamenei stated that any U.S. or Israeli attack could force Iran to reconsider its stance on nuclear weapons, with the country potentially moving toward developing atomic bombs despite a fatwa prohibiting them. This tension escalates as both sides prepare for a confrontation. 

Despite Daily Strikes from US Military, Houthis Now Firing Ballistic Missiles Daily at Israel 

US aerial strikes on Yemen have been ongoing daily for two weeks, while the Houthis have intensified their missile attacks on Israel, including eight ballistic missile launches since March 18. On Sunday, a missile aimed at central Israel was intercepted by Israeli air defenses, though one woman was injured in the chaos of trying to reach a bomb shelter. The Houthis, after resuming attacks following the collapse of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, have also launched strikes against US warships in the Red Sea, including multiple engagements with the USS Harry S. Truman. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Palestinians and continuing the attacks on Israeli and US targets. While the Pentagon and US Central Command have not confirmed the details of these purported missile and drone strikes on US assets, they maintain that such attacks have not directly hit any US naval assets. Despite US operations in Yemen being praised as successful, the Houthis’ increased offensive shows no sign of abating, with a clear end-game still elusive. 

Gulf States Deny US Use of Bases and Airspace for Attack on Iran 

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, have prohibited the US from using their airspace or territories to launch attacks on Iran following President Donald Trump's threat to bomb the country. The Gulf states, wary of being drawn into a larger conflict, have denied the US permission for operations such as refueling and rescue missions. This decision is a significant blow to the Trump administration's plans to leverage airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen as a way to pressure Tehran into nuclear negotiations. In response, the US has increased military activity at its Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, positioning B-2 bombers capable of targeting Iran's nuclear facilities. This move allows the US to circumvent the Gulf states' ban, giving them plausible deniability. The US had previously depended on Gulf bases for military operations, but tensions with Iran have shifted its strategy, especially after a series of cargo flights and weapons sales to the region. 

Israeli Army Site and US Warships Targeted According to Yemeni Rebels 

On Monday, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for attacks on an Israeli military site and two U.S. destroyers, escalating tensions in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree stated that a “Yaffa” drone targeted a military site in the Israeli-occupied area of Yaffa (Tel Aviv), while cruise missiles and drones were launched at two American warships in the Red Sea. Earlier that day, Israel said it intercepted a drone from the east before it breached its airspace. In response, U.S. forces reportedly conducted five airstrikes in Yemen’s Harib district, part of an ongoing American campaign that began March 15 to halt Houthi threats against commercial shipping. Since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, the Houthis have targeted Israeli territory and maritime vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, citing solidarity with Palestinians. Attacks resumed in March after Israel ended a brief truce and reimposed a blockade on Gaza. Houthi actions have severely disrupted Red Sea shipping, diverting 12% of global traffic around southern Africa. 

Third MQ-9 Reaper Drone Downed in Just 10 Days Claims Houthis 

On Wednesday, Yemen's Houthis claimed to have shot down another U.S. MQ-9 drone over northeastern Yemen, marking the third downing in just ten days and the 18th since the Red Sea conflict began. Military spokesman Yahya Saree stated the drone was intercepted with a domestically made surface-to-air missile in Al-Jawf province, though the Pentagon has not confirmed the claim. If accurate, it suggests that relatively inexpensive Houthi missiles are successfully targeting $33 million drones. Footage released by Houthi-linked media shows wreckage consistent with MQ-9 drones, though U.S. officials have not verified the details. Analysts believe the Houthis are using a mix of mobile surface-to-air missile systems and electronic warfare, likely including Iranian and Russian-made weapons. The latest U.S. airstrikes on Yemen reportedly killed at least six people. Despite mounting costs, which have reached about $1 billion in three weeks, U.S. operations continue. The Houthis remain resolute, demanding full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while showing defiance in the face of ongoing coalition bombings. 

RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT

30,000 Conscripts Needed Per Month to Stop Russia Demands Top Ukraine General 

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Aleksandr Syrsky, has stressed the urgent need for Ukraine to mobilize 30,000 soldiers every month to maintain its resistance against Russia’s growing military strength. In an interview with lb.ua, Syrsky pointed out the vast disparity in troop numbers, noting that Russia can field up to 5 million trained soldiers, with a total potential force of 20 million. Since the conflict intensified in 2022, Russian forces have surged to approximately 623,000, with an additional 8,000-9,000 soldiers mobilized monthly. In some areas, Russian troops outnumber Ukrainian forces by a ratio of 10 to 1. Ukraine’s general mobilization, initiated to address this, has faced challenges such as corruption and draft evasion, prompting stricter penalties and a lowered conscription age to 25. To supplement recruitment, Ukraine introduced a voluntary contract program offering higher pay and benefits to men aged 18-24. Meanwhile, enlistment officers have increasingly resorted to forceful methods, including detaining men in public, to meet the growing demand for soldiers. 

Zelensky: Beijing Being Dragged into Ukraine War by Russia Recruiting Chinese Fighters 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of dragging China into the war by recruiting Chinese nationals to fight, claiming Kyiv had evidence of over 150 Chinese citizens serving in Moscow’s army, including two recently captured in Donetsk. Zelensky said China was aware of the recruitment, facilitated through social media like TikTok, and warned this marked a deliberate expansion of the war. Beijing dismissed the claims as “absolutely groundless” but said it was verifying the identities of the captured men. Zelensky offered to exchange them for Ukrainian POWs held by Russia. He also compared the Chinese involvement to North Korea’s reported deployment of over 10,000 troops last year. Amid rising tensions, Zelensky said Kyiv was ready to purchase up to $50 billion in U.S. military equipment and would soon meet with U.S. officials as Washington pushes for a ceasefire. He noted the U.S. was “surprised” and considered Chinese combat participation “unacceptable.” Meanwhile, China maintains it remains neutral in the war, though NATO has labeled it a key enabler of Russia, and it has never condemned the invasion. 

Ukrainian Rangers Spotted with US Light Tactical Vehicle Not Mentioned on any Aid Packages 

A U.S. Army light tactical vehicle, the Flyer 72-LD, has been spotted among Ukrainian forces, despite not being mentioned in official aid packages. Developed by Flyer Defense for the U.S. military’s Ultra-Light Combat Vehicle program, the Flyer 72-LD is used by U.S. Special Operations Forces and is designed for irregular warfare and covert operations. Its appearance in an official video by Ukraine’s 6th Ranger Regiment has sparked speculation that it may be part of a classified transfer. The vehicle, which is not widely used even within NATO, is compact and versatile, measuring 194 inches in length and 72 inches in width, with a weight of 5,000 pounds. It can carry around 20 personnel and be transported by helicopters, including the Soviet-era Mi-8, though specialized training is required. The Flyer 72-LD is suitable for rapid deployment, capable of speeds up to 75 miles per hour and operating in rugged terrain. This vehicle follows previous secret U.S. transfers of equipment, including long-range ATACMS and V-BAT drones.

Ukraine President Zelensky Submits Bills for 90 Day Extension of Martial Law and Troop Mobilization 

On April 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted two bills to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, seeking a 90-day extension of both martial law and national mobilization, from May 9 to August 6. The proposals are currently under review by the parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence. Martial law and general mobilization were first enacted on February 24, 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine under the guise of a "special military operation." Since then, both measures have been repeatedly renewed to support the country’s defense efforts amid the ongoing conflict. These extensions grant the government broad emergency powers, including restrictions on movement, curfews, and conscription measures necessary to sustain Ukraine’s war effort. Zelenskyy’s latest proposal reflects the continued military pressure Ukraine faces and underscores the government's intent to maintain elevated readiness and legal authority during the prolonged war with Russia. The extension, if approved, would help ensure the continuity of Ukraine’s defense mobilization and internal security operations through the summer months.

Ukrainian F-16 Fighter Jet Shot Down by Russian S-400 Air Defense System 

On April 12, a Ukrainian F-16AM fighter jet was reportedly shot down over the Sumy region by a Russian S-400 air defense missile system, marking Ukraine’s second F-16 pilot loss since acquiring the jets. Initial claims suggested the aircraft was downed during an aerial battle with a Russian Su-35S, but eyewitnesses later reported seeing anti-aircraft missiles launch from the ground, with one of three missiles striking the jet after the pilot evaded the first two. The pilot, 26-year-old officer Pavel Ivanov, died in the crash. No debris or remains have been recovered yet. The Ukrainian Air Force honored Ivanov’s bravery, calling him a symbol of the courage pilots display in each mission. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed condolences and posthumously awarded Ivanov the title of Hero of Ukraine, recognizing his service in defending Ukraine’s sovereignty. A formal investigation into the incident has been launched, though the Air Force has not confirmed the method of the jet’s destruction. Ivanov’s death follows that of pilot Oleksii Mes in August, underscoring the risks facing Ukraine’s new F-16 force. 

INDO-PACIFIC

US Warns China has Ordered Military to Prepare to Invade Taiwan by 2027 

Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027, a development U.S. officials warn could destabilize global security. Testifying before Congress, defense official John Noh described China’s military buildup as unprecedented, including advancements in nuclear, cyber, and space capabilities aimed at displacing U.S. dominance. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said PLA drills near Taiwan are no longer symbolic but rehearsals for war, with a 300% rise in Chinese military activity around the island in 2024. He warned of Beijing’s superiority in missile systems, naval assets, and airpower, along with intensified covert efforts to infiltrate Taiwan’s political, media, and academic institutions. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has responded with asymmetric warfare strategies and civil defense initiatives, while Defense Minister Wellington Koo reaffirmed U.S. commitment to regional security. Citing the Taiwan Relations Act, officials stressed the urgency of deterrence through unity and readiness. Lai also emphasized deepening U.S.-Taiwan economic ties, including F-16V procurement and TSMC’s $165 billion investment in Arizona. 

Military Expansion by China ‘Staggering’ Claims NATO Chief

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, during a visit to Japan this week, warned that China’s military expansion is “staggering” and called for deeper Asia-Pacific cooperation to counter rising threats. In an interview with the Japan Times, Rutte urged the alliance and its regional partners to move beyond symbolic agreements toward practical defense-industrial collaboration and enhanced information-sharing. His remarks align with U.S. efforts, particularly under President Donald Trump, to pressure NATO members to increase defense spending and encourage Asia-Pacific allies to confront China and North Korea militarily. Rutte emphasized that while NATO’s involvement in the region would not trigger Article 5 commitments, the alliance must “project power” and strengthen mutual support. During his trip, Rutte planned to visit Yokosuka naval base and meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. NATO has been expanding ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—collectively known as the IP4—with their leaders attending NATO summits. Japan has also boosted military ties with Europe, launching a new defense partnership with the EU in November 2024.

China Cautions Against Sale of US F-16s to Taiwan and Philippines  

The Chinese Defense Ministry has condemned recent U.S. arms sales of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan and the Philippines, accusing Washington of destabilizing the Indo-Pacific and violating past agreements. Taiwan received the first of 66 new U.S.-built F-16C/D Block 70 jets last month, while the Philippines’ request for 20 similar aircraft was approved earlier this month. Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang stated these sales breach the three China-U.S. joint communiqués, particularly the one in which the U.S. acknowledged Beijing's claim that Taiwan is part of China. He insisted that the arms sales would neither change the military balance across the Taiwan Strait nor hinder China’s goal of reunification. The U.S. State Department defended the deals, citing the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and affirming support for Taiwan’s self-defense. It also emphasized that military support for the Philippines aligns with its 1951 mutual defense treaty obligations. Beijing warned that U.S. efforts to arm regional allies threaten its sovereignty and warned the Philippines that reliance on foreign backing would "backfire." Tensions remain high amid Chinese military drills and maritime disputes. 

GEOPOLITICS

Russian Envoy to Visit Washington for Talks, First Time Since Ukrainian Invasion 

The Kremlin has formally notified the Trump White House that Ukraine continues to attack Russian energy infrastructure, despite a US-backed agreement for both sides to refrain from targeting such sites. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, reported that there has been no response from the Trump administration so far. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov provided evidence of Ukraine’s violations to US officials, including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In response, Ukrainian President Zelensky argued that Russia has also violated the ceasefire, submitting information on Russian energy sector violations. Zelensky has called for stronger sanctions on Russia, and the US Treasury issued additional sanctions against Russian entities. Meanwhile, a significant diplomatic visit is set for this week, with Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev traveling to Washington for talks with Trump official Steve Witkoff, marking the first senior Russian visit to the US since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov criticized current US proposals for peace, claiming they do not address the root causes of the conflict. 

If Russia Continues to ‘Refuse Peace’, French PM Macron Calls for ‘Strong Action’ 

French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday urged “strong action” if Russia continues to reject peace efforts, following a Russian missile strike that killed 20 people, including nine children, in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih on April 4. Macron, posting in both French and Ukrainian, condemned Russia’s ongoing attacks on civilians and expressed solidarity with the victims. He emphasized the need for an immediate ceasefire, warning that Moscow appears intent on prolonging the conflict. The missile struck a residential area near a playground, with the youngest victim a three-year-old boy. Despite Ukraine reportedly accepting a U.S.-proposed ceasefire and European nations pushing for peace, Macron noted that Russia is intensifying its aerial campaign, showing “no regard for civilians.” Zelensky echoed Macron’s concerns, stating that Moscow launched a “massive” drone and missile barrage overnight on April 6, killing at least two more people. He criticized the international response as inadequate, insisting that pressure on Russia remains insufficient to halt its aggression and calling for firmer measures to confront Moscow’s continued escalation.

Trump’s Call for ‘Direct’ Nuclear Talks Initially Rejected by Iran  

Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, dismissed the possibility of direct negotiations with the United States as pointless after President Donald Trump expressed a preference for face-to-face talks over Iran's nuclear program. Trump had sent a letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which he called for negotiations but also warned of military action if diplomacy failed. Araghchi stated that talks with a country that continuously threatens military action and expresses contradictory positions are unproductive. While Iran remains committed to diplomacy, it prefers indirect negotiations and is ready to defend its national interests. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed this sentiment, questioning Washington’s sincerity given its threats. Iran and the U.S. have had no diplomatic relations since 1979, with countries like Oman acting as intermediaries. While Iran rejects claims of seeking nuclear weapons, it has faced accusations from the U.S. and Western nations. Iran’s response to the U.S. letter, conveyed through Oman, emphasized its commitment to peace but warned of retaliation if provoked. 

First Round of Talks Between US and Iran ‘Positive’, Both Agree to Further Negotiations 

Nuclear talks between the United States and Iran held in Oman took place in a “friendly atmosphere,” according to Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who emphasized the goal of promoting regional and global peace, security, and stability. Oman continues to serve as a key intermediary between Washington and Tehran amid ongoing tensions. The discussions, though indirect, included a brief face-to-face encounter between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff following the main negotiations. Despite this momentary exchange, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei highlighted the ongoing divide between the two nations, stating on X that both delegations occupied separate rooms and communicated exclusively through Oman’s foreign minister. The talks reflect a cautious attempt to revive diplomatic engagement amid deteriorating relations, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program and U.S. sanctions. Oman’s role as mediator remains vital as both sides seek a path forward without direct formal negotiations, signaling both deep mistrust and a fragile willingness to explore diplomatic solutions under carefully controlled conditions. 

US and Panama Agree to New Security Partnership to Counter Chinese Influence  

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a new security partnership with Panama to counter “China’s maligned influence” over the Panama Canal, during a three-day security summit in Panama City. The agreement includes a memorandum of understanding and a forthcoming declaration on canal operations, granting U.S. warships “first and free” passage and reestablishing U.S. military presence at former bases like Rodman Naval Station and Howard Air Force Base. Over 1,000 U.S. troops, two guided-missile cruisers, F-18 fighter jets, and a Coast Guard cutter have already been deployed. This move follows President Trump’s controversial threats to “take back” the canal, claims Panama rejected. To address U.S. concerns, BlackRock led a deal to acquire Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s port operations at the canal’s ends, drawing criticism from Beijing. The Panama Canal Authority confirmed the deal reaffirms Panama’s sovereignty and adheres to the 1977 Neutrality Treaty. The agreement also covers compensation for military services and expands cooperation on regional crime and border security, with Panama reporting a 99% drop in illegal crossings at the Darién Gap. 

 

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