MID-AUGUST SITREP SUPPORT
LEAD STORIES
Trump Deploys 800 National Guard Troops to D.C., Democrats Protest Move
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the deployment of 800 National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., asserting federal control over the city’s law enforcement amid his claims of escalating violence. Speaking at the White House, Trump described the capital as “overrun by violent gangs” and vowed to restore order swiftly, despite official data showing a decline in violent crime. He characterized the situation as “total lawlessness” and pledged to “clean up” the city. Earlier, Trump urged homeless individuals to leave Washington via his Truth Social platform. National Guard spokesman Pete Hegseth confirmed troops had begun mobilizing, with personnel expected to increase visibly on D.C. streets over the coming week. The deployment follows Trump’s declaration of a state of emergency in the capital and is part of a wider federal initiative potentially extending beyond D.C. This is Trump’s second recent use of the National Guard, following his June order sending troops to California to manage protests related to immigration enforcement. The move has drawn mixed reactions amid ongoing debates over public safety and federal intervention in local policing.
Texas House Orders Arrest of Over 50 Democrats Who Fled State to Block GOP Redistricting Plan
On Monday August 4th, the Texas House ordered the sergeant-at-arms to track and arrest over 50 Democratic lawmakers who fled the state to block a GOP-led redistricting plan. The Democrats left on Sunday to deny the legislature a quorum, preventing Republicans from passing a congressional map designed to give them an advantage in securing at least five additional U.S. House seats. Most Democrats escaped to states like Illinois, New York, and Massachusetts, making enforcement difficult outside Texas. Governor Greg Abbott directed the Texas Department of Public Safety to assist in returning the lawmakers but clarified that no criminal or civil charges would accompany the arrest warrants. Abbott criticized the Democrats for fleeing, calling it un-Texan and mocking their protests in distant states. He also hinted at potential felony bribery charges related to fundraising efforts used to finance their flight. The governor accused the Democrats of paralyzing government operations, including legislation aiding flood victims in central Texas. Democrats, joined by leaders from blue states, defended their actions as necessary to expose corruption and demand transparency in the redistricting process, accusing Republicans of prioritizing loyalty to former President Trump over Texans’ interests. The standoff highlights the intense political battle over control of Texas’s congressional delegation.
U.S. Soldier Arrested in Texas for Attempting to Share Classified Tank Data with Russia
On August 7, 2025, U.S. Army soldier Taylor Adam Lee, 22, was arrested in El Paso, Texas, for allegedly attempting to share classified national defense information with Russia. According to the Justice Department, Lee—stationed at Fort Bliss—sought to transmit sensitive technical details regarding the M1A2 Abrams main battle tank to an individual he believed was a Russian intelligence officer. The FBI claims Lee offered the classified data in exchange for Russian citizenship. During a July meeting, he reportedly handed over an SD card containing documents outlining tank vulnerabilities, intending it for the Russian Ministry of Defense. Assistant FBI Counterintelligence Director Roman Rozhavsky emphasized that the arrest serves as a stern warning to any U.S. service members considering betrayal, highlighting the gravity of Lee’s alleged actions given his sworn duty to defend the nation. The incident underscores ongoing concerns about insider threats within the military and potential targeting by hostile foreign intelligence services. Lee faces charges of attempting to transmit national defense information to a foreign adversary, a serious offense that could carry severe penalties if convicted. The Justice Department did not disclose whether the Russian contact was actually an undercover agent.
Chinese Military Helicopter Crash Kills Ghanan Defense, Environment Ministers and Six Others
On August 6, 2025, a Ghana Air Force Z9 helicopter crashed en route from Accra to Obuasi, killing all eight on board, including Defense Minister Edward Omane Boamah and Environment Minister Ibrahim Murtala Muhammed. The aircraft lost radar contact shortly after its 9:12 a.m. departure, with wreckage later discovered ablaze in a forested area in Adansi Akrofuom. The cause of the crash remains unknown; no distress signal was issued, prompting the military to ground all Z9 helicopters and launch an investigation. Boamah, a former communications minister and medical doctor, had recently been focused on countering jihadist threats near Ghana’s northern border, including diplomatic efforts with Burkina Faso’s military regime. Muhammed, head of the Environment Ministry, was known for his aggressive stance against illegal gold mining (galamsey), which has caused widespread environmental damage. Others killed included Deputy National Security Coordinator Alhaji Muniru Mohammed, former parliamentary candidate Samuel Aboagye, NDC vice-chair Samuel Sarpong, and three experienced aircrew members. The delegation had been traveling to support a government campaign against illegal mining. The crash marks Ghana’s deadliest aviation disaster since a 2012 cargo plane accident in Accra that killed ten.
IMMIGRATION CRISIS
U.S. ICE Crackdown Drives Drop in Remittances to Mexico
Remittances sent to Mexico from the U.S., largely from undocumented Mexican workers, have sharply declined amid President Donald Trump’s intensified interior immigration enforcement. This reversal breaks 11 years of steady growth, with remittance flows dropping more than 15% year-on-year, according to Banxico, Mexico’s central bank. In June alone, remittances totaled $5.2 billion—a 16% drop from the previous year and marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Despite the decrease in total remittance volume, the average amount sent per transaction rose to $409. Over the past 12 months, about $63 billion was sent, less than in 2023 and 2024. The decline precedes the planned implementation of a 1% remittance tax set to take effect in January 2026, after Senate Republicans reduced an initially proposed 3.5% tax. The law includes exemptions for senders with bank relationships, preserving Western Union’s dominant role in the market. Western Union’s CEO Devin McGranahan noted the tax will impact less than 20% of the company’s revenue, even as the firm experiences a slowdown in remittance volume to Mexico.
Trump Secretly Authorizes Military Force Against Drug Cartels Designated as Terrorist Groups
A new report reveals that President Donald Trump has secretly authorized the Pentagon to use military force against Latin American drug cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations. According to The New York Times, this directive allows the U.S. military to potentially conduct operations against cartels in foreign countries and at sea, targeting groups like Venezuela’s Cartel de Los Soles. A source close to the White House told The New York Post that Trump aims not just to dismantle but to "completely destroy" these cartels' operations across the Western Hemisphere. Since January, Trump has labeled multiple violent cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, declaring a national emergency to address the threat they pose to U.S. security, foreign policy, and economy. Despite Trump’s offer in May to deploy U.S. troops to Mexico for anti-cartel operations, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum firmly rejected the proposal, insisting on respecting Mexican sovereignty and ruling out any U.S. military presence on Mexican soil. Sheinbaum emphasized ongoing cooperation and information sharing but made clear that “an invasion is off the table.” The White House underscored that the priority remains protecting the homeland while pursuing aggressive measures against transnational criminal groups.
BOHICA!
Trump Unveils New Reciprocal Tariffs on 69 Countries, Excludes China Amid Ongoing Trade Talks
President Donald Trump has introduced new reciprocal tariffs on imports from 69 countries, ranging between 10 and 41 percent, as part of his ongoing trade reshaping strategy. Most tariffs will take effect on August 7, with around 40 countries facing a 15 percent rate, while the UK and Australia are set at 10 percent. Notably, China was excluded from the new tariff adjustments amid ongoing tense trade relations. US and Chinese officials recently met in Stockholm but failed to agree on extending a 90-day tariff pause set to expire on August 12. This pause, agreed in May, lowered US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 to 30 percent and Chinese tariffs on US products from 125 to 10 percent. Talks focused on preventing further escalation, particularly concerning technology exports and rare earth minerals, which China dominates and are critical to many industries. The US also signaled potential tariffs on China over its Russian oil purchases. While a face-to-face summit between Trump and Xi Jinping remains uncertain, recent agreements with the EU, Japan, South Korea, and others demonstrate the US’s broader push to recalibrate trade relations globally. Despite tensions, officials describe recent negotiations as constructive, reflecting a cautious easing from earlier trade war hostilities.
Trump Threatens More Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Imports as Diplomatic Tensions Escalate
President Trump announced on Monday August 4th, plans to substantially increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, sparking diplomatic tensions as New Delhi called the move “unjustified” and vowed to protect its national interests. Last week, Trump had imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports, citing India’s refusal to distance itself from Moscow amid Western pressure after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trump accused India on Truth Social of profiting by reselling Russian oil while ignoring the human toll in Ukraine and warned of further tariff hikes, though he did not specify amounts. Indian officials confirmed to Reuters that India will continue buying Russian oil, emphasizing the need for affordable energy amid global market disruptions caused by diverted supplies to Europe. India’s foreign ministry criticized the U.S. targeting, noting that Western countries, especially the EU, also trade with Russia. Trump’s broader critique includes the BRICS group, which India is part of, portraying it as hostile to U.S. interests, a charge BRICS members reject. Additionally, India has expressed frustration with Trump taking credit for the May 10 India-Pakistan ceasefire, maintaining that bilateral issues should be resolved without outside interference. Meanwhile, Trump has secured a trade deal with Pakistan.
Trump Doubles Tariffs on Indian Imports to 50% Over Russian Oil Purchases, Sparking Diplomatic Backlash
On August 7, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump intensified trade tensions with India by signing an executive order imposing a new 25% tariff on Indian imports, doubling the total tariff burden to 50%. The move targets India’s ongoing purchase of Russian oil, which Trump argues undermines global efforts to end the war in Ukraine. The tariffs will take effect in 21 days, leaving limited time for diplomatic negotiations. India condemned the decision as “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” affirming it will protect its national interests. Trump accused India on TruthSocial of profiting from the conflict by buying Russian oil and reselling it, warning that tariffs could rise further due to India’s high tariffs on U.S. goods. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham supported Trump’s hardline approach. India, the world’s fifth-largest economy, maintains that its Russian energy imports are sovereign and vital for its security and economic stability, refusing to change policy under external pressure. The tariff escalation follows Trump’s recent threats against India and comes amid broader geopolitical dynamics, including a call between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky and talks between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Putin, signaling a strategic U.S. effort to isolate Russia economically and politically.
India and Russia Strengthen Economic and Defense Ties Amid U.S. Tariff Dispute
India and Russia held the 11th Session of their Working Group on Modernization and Industrial Cooperation in New Delhi, focusing on deepening economic ties amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of 50% tariffs on Indian imports due to India’s ongoing Russian oil purchases. The talks centered on cooperation in rare earth elements, aircraft parts manufacturing, railways, wind tunnel technology, aircraft engines, carbon fiber, coal gasification, and industrial infrastructure. The session concluded with a signed protocol reaffirming the strong strategic partnership between the two nations. Concurrently, Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval visited Moscow to bolster defense and security relations, including discussions on acquiring additional Russian S-400 missile systems—India currently operates three of the five ordered, recently deployed during a brief military clash with Pakistan in May. During Doval’s prior visit in September 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the growing partnership and India’s economic progress under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership.
Trump Raises Tariffs on Brazil to 50% Amid Political Retaliation Over Bolsonaro Coup Trial
Former President Donald Trump has slapped Brazil with a 50% tariff on imports—up from 10%—potentially launching a trade war with Latin America's largest economy. The move comes as a form of political retaliation over Brazil's prosecution of Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro, who faces trial for an alleged 2022 coup plot. The White House tied the tariff hike to accusations of Brazil harming U.S. companies and violating “free speech rights,” citing court-ordered social media restrictions from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is leading the Bolsonaro investigation. Trump also imposed sanctions and a visa ban on Moraes and his family. Analysts note that this is not solely political—tech firms facing tighter Brazilian regulations are key to Trump’s campaign support. President Lula da Silva has denounced the U.S. action as foreign interference and is preparing countermeasures, while enjoying a bump in domestic approval. Brazilian exporters, especially in coffee and agriculture, say they can't quickly replace lost U.S. market access. The tariffs may backfire politically on Bolsonaro, hitting his support base and raising costs for U.S. consumers. The standoff could escalate, but so far neither side is backing down.
Brazil’s Supreme Court Orders Bolsonaro Under House Arrest, Escalating Clash with Trump-Backed Opposition
Late on August 4th, tensions escalated sharply in the ongoing standoff between former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and the country's Supreme Court amid his trial for an alleged coup attempt against current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Supreme Court, still deliberating Bolsonaro’s case, ordered him placed under house arrest after finding he violated a court order restricting his social media activity. Despite already being under an ankle monitor, Bolsonaro reportedly continued to use social media to attack Brazil’s institutions, which the court views as incitement against the judiciary and support for foreign interference. The house arrest order was issued by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is himself a target of U.S. sanctions and sharp criticism from former U.S. President Donald Trump. The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Brazilian officials, including Moraes, whom Trump calls the driver of a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro’s family has actively echoed Trump’s rhetoric, praising the punitive measures against Lula’s government and the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters rallied in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, demanding full pardons for Bolsonaro and his allies. The Lula administration has so far resisted these pressures, deepening the political confrontation.
Market Selloff Accelerates as Jobs Data Miss Sparks Fears of Deeper Correction
A recent sharp downturn in the markets appears to validate long-standing warnings of an impending correction. Key indicators—such as weakening market-leading metrics and multi-asset class signals—had already suggested a shift toward a "risk off" environment, with stocks entering a seasonally weak period. The trigger arrived when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that roughly 250,000 jobs previously counted over the past three months were revised downward, with July’s jobs figure falling well short of expectations at 73,000. The S&P 500 swiftly erased a month’s worth of gains in one day, while momentum stocks like Robinhood (HOOD) dropped more than 3%, failing to reclaim key support levels now turned resistance. Despite brief oversold conditions, analysts caution that this single-day selloff is insufficient to reset bullish momentum that’s driven markets upward since April. With three open gaps still unfilled on the S&P 500 chart, further downside is likely. Investors are urged not to rush back into equities but instead evaluate whether this is a standard correction or the start of a deeper collapse. A proprietary market timing indicator—touted as having predicted every crash in the last 45 years—is being offered in a special report detailing the current threat, with limited access available.
Russian Official Claims EU Lost Over €1 Trillion from Sanctions and Energy Cutoffs
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko claimed the EU has lost over €1 trillion ($1.15 trillion) due to sanctions and the severing of energy and trade ties with Moscow over the Ukraine war. In a Monday interview with Izvestia, Grushko said the estimate includes lost profits from trade and energy cooperation, noting that EU-Russia trade fell from €417 billion in 2013 to €60 billion in 2023. He warned that Europe is now suffering higher energy costs—natural gas four to five times and electricity two to three times more expensive than in the U.S.—which is undermining EU competitiveness. Grushko’s remarks follow Russian claims last year that total EU losses from sanctions reached $1.5 trillion. The EU, meanwhile, recently struck a trade deal with the U.S. that commits the bloc to buying American energy at higher prices and accepting 15% tariffs on key exports. Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, argue this reflects the EU’s loss of political and economic sovereignty. Moscow maintains that the sanctions are illegal under international law and damage global economic stability, while asserting it has developed resilience to Western restrictions.
U.S. and China Extend Tariff Suspension for 90 Days to Avert Trade Truce Collapse
The United States and China agreed to extend their tariff suspension for 90 days, hours before their trade truce was set to expire on Aug. 12, maintaining reduced duties until Nov. 10 or until a deal is reached earlier. President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying higher tariffs, keeping U.S. rates on Chinese goods at 30 percent, while Beijing will continue its 10 percent tariff, both down from the triple-digit levels reached earlier this year. The move follows a May agreement in Geneva to de-escalate tensions, though negotiations since have been rocky, with disputes surfacing during talks in London and Stockholm. Trump said the pause allows time to address U.S. concerns over trade deficits and reciprocity, while Beijing pledged to suspend or remove non-tariff countermeasures. Analysts note China’s leverage over rare earth exports could be used as pressure in talks, and a trade deal could set the stage for a Trump–Xi summit this fall. Business leaders welcomed the extension as critical for corporate planning, though experts caution that finalizing an agreement will be difficult. Meanwhile, Trump’s broader “reciprocal” tariffs remain in place globally, targeting most partners at varying rates.
WAR (and rumors of war)
US MILITARY
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines Near Russia Amid Heated Feud with Medvedev
U.S. President Donald Trump escalated a social media feud with former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev into a significant geopolitical move on August 2 by ordering the deployment of two nuclear submarines “closer to Russia,” citing Medvedev’s provocative rhetoric over Ukraine and sanctions. Trump, posting on Truth Social, warned that words have consequences and said the submarines were positioned “just in case” the threats proved more than verbal. He later told Newsmax the move was a precaution against Russia’s increasing nuclear posturing. The exchange occurred as Russian President Vladimir Putin announced mass production of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile, which could be stationed in Belarus by year-end. Trump has set a deadline for Russia to begin steps toward ending its war in Ukraine or face new sanctions, while Putin maintains his demands for territorial concessions and an end to Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. Medvedev, a Kremlin hardliner and online provocateur, alluded to Russia’s Cold War-era "Dead Hand" nuclear system, prompting Trump to issue stern warnings. Meanwhile, Ukraine mourned 31 civilians killed in a Russian missile strike on Kyiv, underscoring the war’s continued toll. President Zelensky renewed his call for direct peace talks with Putin, which Russia has yet to accept.
U.S. Army’s Dark Eagle Hypersonic Missile Makes Overseas Debut ‘Down Under’ in Australia
The U.S. Army’s Dark Eagle hypersonic missile system made its overseas debut during this year’s Talisman Sabre exercise in Australia, marking a significant milestone for the program. Designed for land-based strategic strikes, Dark Eagle can hit targets up to 1,700 miles away while traveling faster than Mach 5, allowing it to penetrate advanced anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) defenses. Each system includes four launchers capable of firing eight missiles, ideal for overwhelming high-value or time-sensitive targets in contested environments. The missile’s mobility, low observability, and large warhead capacity add to its survivability and flexibility within the Army’s growing long-range fires arsenal. Originally slated for 2023 deployment, Dark Eagle faced delays due to technical issues, including pre-flight setbacks and a battery fault, pushing deployment to 2025. Its appearance at Talisman Sabre follows its 2024 public debut during Exercise Resolute Hunter. The deployment underscores the Pentagon’s urgency in fielding hypersonics to counter China’s A2/AD strategies aimed at restricting U.S. access around Taiwan and the South China Sea. Alongside Dark Eagle, the exercise featured the U.S. Army’s Typhon missile live fire and the debut of Australian-operated HIMARS, involving over 40,000 troops from 19 nations across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
US Military Exercise Northern Strike 2025 Launches in Michigan with 7,500+ Troops
The Northern Strike exercise, one of the largest U.S. military readiness drills, kicked off Saturday in Michigan, running through August 16 with over 7,500 service members from 36 states and territories, plus nine international partners. Hosted at the National All-Domain Warfighting Center, the event focuses on realistic, modern battlefield training, including defense innovation and academic collaboration. Col. Todd Fitzpatrick, the exercise’s land director, emphasized its joint integration with foreign forces to boost interoperability and readiness across all warfare domains. Highlighted scenarios address emerging threats like cruise missiles and small unmanned aerial systems (UAS), with critical missions involving their detection and destruction. Training activities cover Defensive Cyberspace Operations, Combined Arms Live-Fire, Joint All-Domain Command and Control, and electromagnetic warfare. The exercise also features homeland security elements, maritime operations, patient evacuation drills, and unmanned vehicle training, supported by over 30 fixed-wing aircraft. Michigan’s Maj. Gen. Paul D. Rogers praised the state’s unique capabilities and the exercise’s focus on counter-UAS system testing, underlining Northern Strike’s role in advancing multi-domain readiness for evolving military challenges.
U.S. Deploys B-1B Bombers to Norway for NATO Training and Arctic Readiness Operations
On Aug. 9, the U.S. Air Force deployed its only supersonic bomber, the B-1B Lancer, to Ørland Air Station, Norway, for bomber task force training with NATO allies, focusing on building interoperability and readiness. The 345th Bomb Squadron’s 4,800-mile journey followed their participation in Red Flag 25-3, a major Nevada-based exercise simulating contested strike missions. In Norway, crews will conduct similar operations against simulated air and ground threats, emphasizing rapid, coordinated responses with allied fighter forces, including Norway’s F-35s. Photos indicated at least three B-1s were sent, though the total number was not confirmed. Lt. Col. Eric Alvarez described the deployment as essential for integrated training, trust-building, and adaptability in dynamic environments. This marks the second B-1 deployment to Norway—the first was in March 2021 to gain Arctic operational experience, as previous bomber rotations typically used U.K. bases. The Lancers also participated in Arctic Challenge 2023 with Scandinavian partners, shortly before a Russian fighter intercepted one over the Baltic Sea. B-1 bomber task forces have since maintained a global presence, visiting Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Türkiye. The duration of the current Norway mission is unannounced but could extend beyond a month, underscoring sustained U.S.-NATO air cooperation.
FORTRESS EUROPE
Russian Intel Service Accuses British Intelligence of Plotting Sabotage to Trigger NATO Action
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on Monday accused British intelligence of planning a sabotage operation involving Ukrainian forces to provoke NATO action against Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. The SVR claimed UK operatives are considering attacks designed to block maritime chokepoints or ignite a fire at a friendly port during a Russian oil tanker visit, aiming to trigger environmental or safety concerns that would justify seizing vessels in international waters. The agency alleges the West intends to blame Russia or, if exposed, shift responsibility to Ukraine—its chosen proxy—to maintain plausible deniability. The goal, according to the SVR, is to pressure President Donald Trump’s administration into sanctioning buyers of Russian oil as “secondary parties.” The SVR likened the alleged plot to the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, which was initially blamed on Moscow and caused a massive methane leak. These accusations come amid increased Western scrutiny of ships suspected of transporting Russian crude in defiance of sanctions, with proposals for tougher maritime enforcement being discussed despite legal uncertainties. The UK has not responded to the SVR’s allegations, which have not been independently verified.
NATO Countries Pledge $1 Billion in U.S. Weapons Aid to Ukraine
Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and the Netherlands jointly pledged $1 billion to purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine, marking a major boost in NATO-backed military aid amid the ongoing conflict. Denmark committed $500 million, matched equally by the three other Scandinavian countries, emphasizing Ukraine’s fight as vital to European security. This announcement follows a wider NATO and U.S. initiative to deliver $10 billion in U.S. arms to Ukraine, funded by Europe and Canada, though some European nations have opted out. NATO, Ukraine, and U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, developed the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, detailing Kyiv’s lethal and nonlethal equipment needs divided into packages worth roughly $500 million each. NATO is coordinating rapid delivery from U.S. stockpiles, with governments financially committing to these packages. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude, highlighting the $1 billion commitment from these four NATO countries and affirming continued cooperation. Zelensky also reported a productive call with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding new sanctions on Russia. Additionally, Reuters noted that countries donating weapons to Ukraine receive priority for U.S. replacement arms, further incentivizing contributions to Kyiv’s defense.
Germany Suspends Arms Exports to Israel Over Gaza Humanitarian Crisis
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced the suspension of arms exports to Israel on Aug. 9, citing the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza following Israel’s decision to intensify military operations and approve a full takeover of the territory. Merz affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas but said the German government would not authorize weapons exports that could be used in Gaza “until further notice,” stressing the need for a ceasefire and prisoner releases. He also urged Israel to refrain from any steps toward annexing the West Bank. Germany has long been a key supplier to Israel’s defense sector, providing six Dolphin-class submarines—some partially financed by Berlin—which serve as the backbone of Israel’s strategic naval force. Other exports have included radar and sensor systems from Hensoldt, components for the Iron Dome missile defense network, and collaboration between Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rafael to integrate Israel’s Trophy Active Protection System into German Leopard 2 tanks. The suspension marks a significant policy shift in Berlin’s traditionally strong defense ties with Israel, reflecting growing European concerns over civilian casualties and humanitarian conditions in Gaza as the conflict escalates.
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
Israel Plans Permanent Occupation of Gaza, Further Stirring Regional Tensions
Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the Israeli government has decided to permanently occupy the Gaza Strip, with a senior official in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office stating that action is urgent to prevent hostages from dying of starvation and to end Hamas control. This announcement follows an expanded ground operation, dubbed “Gideon’s Chariots,” with negotiations effectively ended. Much of Gaza is already devastated, and its population faces mass starvation. Hardline figures within Netanyahu’s cabinet have pushed for the total removal of Palestinians from the territory, echoing former President Trump’s controversial suggestion to transform Gaza into the “Riviera of the Mediterranean.” Whether Trump or other U.S. leaders will support permanent Israeli occupation—and potential annexation—remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Hamas insurgency is expected to continue, with the immediate priority being the rescue of hostages reportedly filmed in dire conditions by their captors. On the same day, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson visited the Israeli settlement of Ariel in the West Bank, declaring the land “rightful property” of the Jewish people, a statement condemned by the Palestinian Authority’s Foreign Ministry as a violation of international law and efforts to end the conflict, further fueling tensions over annexation and occupation policies.
Hezbollah Rejects Lebanese Cabinet’s Disarmament Plan
On August 6, 2025, Hezbollah rejected Lebanon’s cabinet decision to begin disarming non-state actors, calling the move a “grave sin” and vowing to ignore it. The decision, announced by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam under U.S. pressure and amid fears of escalating Israeli strikes, instructs the Lebanese army to develop a plan by year’s end to restrict all weapons to official state forces. Hezbollah accused the government of undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty and security by yielding to U.S. envoy Tom Barrack’s proposal, which outlines a timetable for the group’s disarmament. Hezbollah claimed the plan serves Israel’s interests and leaves Lebanon vulnerable. The decision is part of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement that ended the November 2024 Hezbollah-Israel war and stipulates that only state forces may bear arms. Hezbollah reiterated it is open to talks on a national defense strategy, but only if Israeli attacks stop. The group emphasized goals like ending Israeli aggression, freeing prisoners, and rebuilding war-torn areas. In protest, Hezbollah-aligned Health Minister Rakan Nassereldine and Amal-affiliated Environment Minister Tamara Elzein walked out of the cabinet meeting. Hezbollah framed their departure as resistance to what it sees as American tutelage and Israeli domination over Lebanese policy.
Iran Backs Hezbollah’s Rejection of Lebanese Disarmament Plan
On August 7, 2025, Iran voiced strong support for Hezbollah, rejecting Lebanese government efforts to disarm the group and emphasizing Tehran’s non-interference in Hezbollah’s internal decisions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated in a televised interview that attempts to strip Hezbollah of weapons are not new but arise from its battlefield strength and resilience. He noted that despite recent setbacks, Hezbollah has fully recovered, reorganized, and maintained a firm, unyielding stance, reinforced by backing from key Lebanese Shia factions such as the Amal Movement and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Araghchi insisted Iran supports Hezbollah’s autonomy, saying Tehran backs any decision Hezbollah makes without direct involvement. The remarks come as Lebanon’s government, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, advances a plan to restrict arms possession exclusively to the national army by year-end—an initiative Hezbollah calls politically motivated and aligned with U.S. and Israeli pressure. The plan includes demands for Israeli withdrawal, prisoner releases, and full state control over weapons. Hezbollah described the disarmament push as a “grave sin” and vowed to disregard it. The group recently endured a costly war with Israel starting in October 2023, culminating in a ceasefire in November 2024, though Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon and Tel Aviv maintains a limited military presence along the border.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Russia Officially Ends INF Treaty Moratorium Citing Western Threats, Raising Fears of New Arms Race
Russia formally declared on Monday that it no longer considers itself bound by the 1987 INF Treaty, which banned ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km. This move is largely symbolic, as the treaty effectively collapsed in 2019 when the U.S. withdrew, citing alleged Russian violations. Until now, Russia had maintained a self-imposed moratorium on deploying such weapons, but the Foreign Ministry stated that conditions for this moratorium “have disappeared,” allowing Russia to drop those restrictions. The statement cited “actions of Western countries” as creating a “direct threat” to Russian security, highlighting specific U.S. activities: deployment of Typhon missile launchers in the Philippines, firing of Typhon missiles during exercises with Australia, and the Australian Army’s possession of American Precision Strike Missiles with ranges beyond 500 km. Russian officials have warned that the treaty’s demise risks triggering a new arms race that undermines global stability. The INF Treaty was one of the last major arms control agreements between Moscow and Washington, with only the New START treaty still regulating nuclear arsenals—a pact both sides hope to renegotiate and extend soon. This announcement coincides with heightened nuclear tensions, including U.S. deployment of nuclear submarines near Russia and ongoing sharp rhetoric from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Putin Announces Production of New Hypersonic Missile, Plans Deployment in Belarus
President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has begun producing its new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, and confirmed plans to deploy it to Belarus by year’s end. Speaking alongside Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin said deployment sites in Belarus are nearly ready and the first batch of missiles has entered service. Russia initially tested the Oreshnik in November 2024 against a target in Ukraine, and Putin now claims its Mach 10 warheads are too fast to intercept and can rival the destructive power of nuclear weapons even when conventionally armed. He warned NATO that Russia may target members who enable Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. The Oreshnik reportedly has a range that covers all of Europe and can carry either nuclear or conventional payloads, with its class of missiles previously banned under the now-defunct INF Treaty. The announcement coincides with Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine that includes Belarus under its nuclear umbrella, allowing for tactical nuclear deployments on Belarusian soil. Lukashenko has confirmed Belarus already hosts several dozen such weapons. The doctrine lowers the threshold for nuclear use, authorizing it in response to WMD attacks or conventional threats to the sovereignty of Russia or Belarus.
UK Intel: Russia Has Suffered Over 1 Million Casualties in Ukraine War Since 2022
UK Defense Intelligence estimates that Russia has lost over 1,050,000 troops killed or wounded since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with approximately 260,000 casualties occurring in 2025 alone. Analysis of Russian General Staff reports indicates an average daily loss of about 1,072 personnel during July 2025, slightly lower than early August’s reported 1,120 daily casualties, which also include military vehicles and weapons. While casualty rates have moderately decreased since March 2025, Russian forces continue intense frontline operations, making incremental gains in the Donbas region. These figures contrast with U.S. President Donald Trump’s Aug. 1 claim of 112,500 Russian troop losses for the year, significantly lower than British data. The report coincides with Ukraine’s announcement of evacuations from eastern Donetsk villages, a focal point of Russia’s ongoing offensive near the border and a hotspot for conflict. Ahead of a Ukraine-Russia summit involving Washington, Trump proposed possible territorial swaps as part of peace talks, a suggestion firmly rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who vowed Ukraine would never cede land to the occupier. The situation underscores ongoing high tensions and heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine despite international diplomatic efforts.
Poll Shows 69% of Ukrainians Now Favor Negotiated Settlement Over Continuing War
A Gallup poll released last Thursday, ahead of the Aug. 16 Trump-Putin summit in Alaska focused on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, reveals a striking shift in Ukrainian public opinion: 69% now favor a negotiated settlement to end the conflict quickly, while only 24% support continuing the fight until military victory. This marks a dramatic reversal from early 2022, when 72% wanted to keep fighting and just 22% backed peace talks. The war, now over 540 days old with tens or possibly hundreds of thousands dead, has caused massive displacement and fatigue. Despite growing public weariness, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains a hardline stance, refusing significant compromises or territorial concessions. Russia’s steady war of attrition—leveraging manpower, artillery, and missiles—has worn down Ukrainian resolve, dimming hopes for swift EU or NATO membership. The West, wary of escalating tensions with Moscow, appears cautious about pushing further support, while Ukrainian attitudes toward Washington have soured. Gallup concludes support for the war effort is declining across all regions and demographics amid diplomatic momentum, with Zelensky signaling willingness for direct talks with Putin. Yet, both sides remain entrenched in maximalist positions, hindering progress toward a truce.
Ukraine’s ‘Test in Ukraine’ Program Attracts 45 Foreign Firms
Since its mid-July launch, Ukraine’s Test in Ukraine initiative has drawn applications from 45 foreign companies seeking to trial weapons and defense technologies in active conflict conditions, according to the government-backed Brave1 technology cluster. Proposals span drones, laser weapons, missiles, AI systems, and electronic warfare tools, with UAVs, reconnaissance complexes, and communication/navigation systems topping submissions. Brave1 head Andriy Hrytsenyuk said Ukraine offers rapid testing approvals and near-instant feedback from technical and military experts, enabling companies to refine products quickly. The program supports in-field or specialist-led trials of aerial, ground, and maritime drones, AI-based systems, and EW capabilities, with detailed performance reports provided to participants. Hrytsenyuk framed the effort as vital for EU defense readiness, noting Ukraine’s frontline experience can help strengthen European security. In a related development, the U.S. Army plans to launch an Amazon-like procurement platform in autumn 2025 for unmanned systems, inspired by Ukraine’s Brave1 Market. That marketplace already lists over 1,000 defense solutions and allows direct purchases by military units, a model Washington hopes will speed evaluation, acquisition, and deployment of unmanned technologies in modern, fast-paced warfare.
Russia and China Conduct Joint Anti-Submarine Naval Exercises in Sea of Japan
Russia and China conducted joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan focused on hunting and destroying an enemy submarine, according to Russia’s defense ministry on August 7, 2025. The drill involved Chinese Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft and Russia’s Pacific Fleet Il-38 planes, alongside helicopter crews. The ministry reported that the “enemy” submarine was promptly detected and mock-destroyed through effective coordination. The exercise concluded with mutual appreciation between Russian and Chinese crews. This comes days after U.S. President Donald Trump revealed he had moved two nuclear submarines closer to Russia in response to provocative remarks by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev about nuclear war risks. The Kremlin downplayed the move, noting U.S. submarines are routinely on combat duty and cautioned against inflammatory nuclear rhetoric. The submarine exercise is part of broader Russian-Chinese naval drills held over the past week, reinforcing their “no-limits” strategic partnership formed before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These drills aim to enhance military coordination and send a deterrent message amid escalating tensions, including Trump’s threats of new sanctions on Russia and its oil buyers, such as India and China, if Vladimir Putin does not end the ongoing war by the coming Friday.
INDO-PACIFIC
Chinese Navy and Coast Guard Ships Collide During Pursuit of Philippine Vessel
On Aug. 11, a Chinese navy ship collided with a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel while both were pursuing the Philippine patrol ship BRP Suluan near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, Philippine officials said, releasing video of the incident. According to coast guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela, the CCG 3104, chasing the Suluan at high speed, made a hazardous maneuver on its starboard side, striking the PLA Navy vessel numbered 164. Footage captured a loud crash and showed significant damage to the CCG ship’s forecastle, which Tarriela said left it unseaworthy. Manila reported that before the collision, Chinese forces fired a water cannon at the Suluan, which evaded the attack while escorting aid boats for local fishermen. Offers of assistance to the damaged CCG vessel went unanswered. China’s coast guard claimed its actions were lawful measures to block and drive away Philippine ships. President Ferdinand Marcos vowed continued patrols to assert the Philippines’ sovereign rights in waters it considers its territory. The clash is the latest in a string of tense encounters in the South China Sea, where Beijing claims nearly all waters despite a 2016 international tribunal ruling rejecting its claims.
Pakistan Army Chief Makes Nuclear Threats Against India During U.S. Visit, “If We Go Down, We’ll Take Half the World with Us,”
Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, recently toured the United States, attending a farewell event for US Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla in Tampa and speaking at a private gathering of the Pakistani diaspora. His remarks there sparked sharp condemnation from India, marking the first time a senior Pakistani official has made nuclear threats from US soil. Munir declared, “We are a nuclear power. If we go down, we’ll take half the world with us,” and threatened missile strikes on Indian infrastructure projects on the Indus River amid tensions over the suspended Indus Waters Treaty. He warned that India’s suspension of the treaty could cause famine for 250 million people and vowed, “Let them build a dam, and we’ll hit it with ten missiles,” asserting Pakistan’s missile capability. Munir also compared India’s military strength to a “shiny Mercedes” and Pakistan to a “dump truck full of gravel,” implying a collision would damage the former more. His comments about the seriousness of politics and military intervention further raised eyebrows. India condemned the remarks as irresponsible “saber-rattling” and criticized US hospitality toward Munir, with Indian lawmaker Jairam Ramesh calling it “bizarre.” While the White House has not responded, the Pentagon maintains long-standing ties with Pakistan’s military dating back to Cold War and counterterrorism cooperation.
U.S. Monitors Record Five Chinese Icebreakers Near Alaska as Arctic Geopolitical Competition Heats Up
The U.S. military and Coast Guard are closely monitoring an unprecedented presence of five Chinese icebreaking vessels operating near Alaska in the Arctic region—more than double the total number of U.S. icebreakers currently available in the Arctic. NORAD and U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) are tracking these ships, which include research-focused icebreakers, as part of heightened Chinese activity in the area. While the vessels remain in international waters and do not pose a homeland defense threat, their numbers mark a significant increase compared to previous years. The Coast Guard has actively responded to some of the ships, deploying aircraft and cutters such as the USCGC Waesche under Operation Frontier Sentinel to counter malign activities and assert U.S. sovereignty in the region. This surge in Chinese Arctic operations aligns with Beijing’s “Polar Silk Road” initiative, aiming to capitalize on melting ice to open shorter northern shipping routes and access natural resources. Despite being nearly 2,000 miles from the Arctic, China has expanded its naval presence, competing with Russia’s extensive icebreaker fleet and far outpacing the U.S., which currently operates only two Arctic-capable icebreakers, with a third set for commissioning soon. The growing activity underscores the Arctic’s rising geopolitical importance amid climate change and strategic competition.
GEOPOLITICS
Trump Reaffirms U.S. Backing of Moroccan Sovereignty in North Africa
U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his administration’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, calling Morocco’s autonomy plan for the disputed territory “serious, credible, and realistic” and the only basis for a lasting solution, according to Morocco’s MAP news agency. In a letter to King Mohammed VI, Trump reiterated U.S. support for Rabat’s stance amid the ongoing conflict with the Algeria-backed Polisario Front, which seeks a UN-backed referendum on Sahrawi self-determination. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also praised Morocco as one of America’s “oldest and closest friends” while highlighting bilateral cooperation through the Abraham Accords and counterterrorism. Trump’s 2020 recognition of Moroccan claims was tied to Morocco normalizing ties with Israel. Washington continues to urge negotiations based solely on Morocco’s autonomy plan, a position echoed by Israel, France, Portugal, and the UK. Algeria, a staunch backer of the Polisario, has condemned these endorsements as escalatory. Despite the tensions, King Mohammed VI said Tuesday he remains open to dialogue with Algeria, signaling a possible thaw in strained relations between the two North African neighbors.
Putin and Trump Meet in Alaska for First U.S.-Russia Summit in Four Years, Excluding Ukraine from Peace Talks
The U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska, the first meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in four years, takes place at a historically symbolic Cold War site where East met West through missile defense and intelligence posts. This is Putin’s first U.S. visit since 2015 and occurs amid unresolved tensions over the Ukraine conflict, which started over three and a half years ago. Though initially speculated, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is excluded, as the Kremlin insists conditions for his participation are not yet met, raising concerns among Kyiv and European allies that peace talks without Ukraine are futile. Alaska’s history as former Russian territory sold to the U.S. in 1867 adds symbolic weight to the summit, hinting at contested borders and shifting power. The agenda centers on Russia’s demands for Ukraine to cede annexed regions, renounce NATO ambitions, and grant Russian official language status, while Ukraine insists on robust security guarantees. Putin aims to legitimize territorial gains and keep Ukraine from Western military influence, while Trump hints at land swaps “for the good of Ukraine,” sparking debate. European and NATO leaders warn any peace without Ukraine’s input would fail, stressing international law and territorial integrity. Putin’s broad diplomatic outreach before the summit signals preparations to solidify a potential settlement.
Zelensky Warns Against Concessions to Russia Ahead of Trump-Putin Summit Excluding Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Aug. 12 cautioned against yielding to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands ahead of a planned summit between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled for Aug. 16, a meeting that excludes Ukraine’s leadership. Zelensky warned that rewarding Russia amid ongoing killings would be both morally wrong and strategically unwise, emphasizing that concessions do not deter aggressors. Kyiv fears the summit could result in pressure for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, which has steadily advanced in eastern Donetsk, recently capturing the village of Fedorivka. The EU’s foreign ministers are also set to discuss the summit, concerned about potential compromises forced on Ukraine without its input. Meanwhile, both Ukraine and Russia have intensified aerial strikes; Ukraine reported an attack on a missile component facility in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region, which killed one person and injured two. The summit will be the first between sitting U.S. and Russian presidents since 2021, occurring amid ongoing conflict and diplomatic uncertainty regarding Ukraine’s future borders and sovereignty.
EU Leaders Urge Inclusion of Ukraine in Peace Talks Ahead of Trump-Putin Summit
Ahead of the Aug. 16 Alaska summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, European Union states—except Hungary—issued a joint statement on Aug. 13 emphasizing Ukraine’s right to determine its own future. The EU leaders stressed that peace talks must include Ukraine and be grounded in a ceasefire or reduced hostilities, reaffirming respect for international law, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. They praised Trump’s efforts toward a “just and lasting peace” but insisted any solution must not allow borders to be changed by force. The statement pledged continued political, financial, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support for Ukraine and underscored readiness to provide further security guarantees, while also backing Ukraine’s EU membership aspirations. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban publicly distanced himself, criticizing the statement as setting conditions for a summit to which the EU was excluded and urging instead for an EU-Russia summit mirroring the U.S.-Russia talks. Orban warned that EU directives from the sidelines could worsen the situation. The statement followed an informal EU foreign ministers’ videoconference discussing the summit’s implications and recent developments in the Ukraine conflict.