MID-DECEMBER BI-WEEKLY UPDATE
LEAD STORIES
Biden to Pardon Son Hunter for Over 10 Years of Criminal Behavior
On Sunday, President Joe Biden signed a pardon for his son, Hunter Biden, who had pleaded guilty to tax charges and was convicted of illegally purchasing a gun. Despite previously claiming he would not pardon his son, President Biden defended the move, arguing that Hunter was unfairly prosecuted due to his family ties. In a statement, he emphasized that Hunter's gun charge—without aggravating factors like criminal use—was a rare felony case, and that tax delinquencies linked to addiction are typically resolved non-criminally. Biden also criticized the political pressure from his opponents, suggesting that Hunter’s prosecution was politically motivated. He described the unraveling of a negotiated plea deal as unfair, claiming that Hunter, who has been sober for over five years, was targeted for his connection to Biden. The president concluded by acknowledging that politics had distorted the justice process, and he urged Americans to understand his decision, expressing hope that his actions reflected his commitment to truth and fairness.
Kash Patel Nominated by President Trump for FBI Director Position
President-elect Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Kash Patel will replace Christopher Wray as FBI Director. Patel, a vocal critic of the FBI, has long advocated for reducing the agency's power and restructuring its leadership. Trump praised Patel as a "brilliant lawyer" and a staunch defender of justice who played a key role in exposing the Russia investigation as a "hoax." Patel has been clear about his intentions, including downsizing the FBI's Washington presence and curbing its authority, particularly within the Justice Department and Pentagon. He has also pledged to aggressively target government officials who leak information to the media, and to make it easier to sue journalists. Patel's track record includes roles as a federal prosecutor, public defender, and key positions in the Trump administration, including on the National Security Council. His nomination has drawn opposition, with figures like former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe warning of potential upheaval. Patel, however, remains defiant, challenging critics to provide evidence of any wrongdoing on his part.
Most Americans Have No Idea World War III is Heating Up on Several Fronts
The ongoing global struggle between the Western and Eastern alliances is intensifying, with significant developments in Syria, Ukraine, and Georgia. In Syria, Western-backed Sunni rebels, including groups like Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, launched a surprise offensive, seizing control of Aleppo and threatening the Assad regime, prompting a heavy response from Syrian forces and their Russian allies. Concurrently, Iran-backed militias are reinforcing Syrian defenses. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine sees Russian forces making territorial gains, with Ukrainian desertions rising as morale weakens, raising concerns about Ukraine’s ability to resist without more direct NATO involvement. In Georgia, protests, fueled by Western backing, have erupted against the government’s shift towards Russia, aiming to delay EU membership. These developments highlight the ongoing battle for global influence, with escalating proxy wars in Syria, Ukraine, and beyond, as the two alliances vie for supremacy. As the world watches, the path forward remains uncertain, with the prospect of further violence and geopolitical instability.
Warning Shots Fired at German Mil Helicopter by Russian Ship in Baltic Sea
In a rare and dangerous incident in the Baltic Sea, a Russian warship reportedly fired warning shots at a German Bundeswehr helicopter monitoring its movements. The attack, involving signaling ammunition, was intended to deter the helicopter during its reconnaissance mission, though it did not result in injury. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock confirmed the incident, highlighting the growing tensions between NATO and Russia. The confrontation comes amid heightened surveillance in the region, following the suspected sabotage of undersea cables linking several European countries, which is believed to have been caused by a Chinese vessel, Yi Peng 3. In addition to the incident, Baerbock suggested that NATO might consider deploying troops to Ukraine in a potential peace agreement, a move which has further strained relations with Moscow. Russia is making significant gains in eastern Ukraine, and with the threat of NATO peacekeeping forces, tensions are expected to rise as peace talks remain elusive. This incident underscores the fragile security situation between NATO and Russia.
Biden Takes Credit for the Fall of the Assad Regime
The rapid collapse of Bashar Assad’s Syrian dictatorship has led to a wave of criticism for the Biden administration, raising questions about its handling of the situation in Syria where around 900 U.S. troops and contractors operate. President Biden attempted to frame the situation as a success for his administration’s foreign policy, asserting from the White House that the U.S. approach had shifted the balance of power in the Middle East. However, critics argue that Biden is prematurely claiming victory, noting that the administration may have overlooked significant challenges in Syria, including the influence of Iran and Hezbollah. John Hannah of the Jewish Institute for National Security warned that taking credit for Assad’s fall could be premature and counterproductive in the complex geopolitical landscape of the region.
Russia Provides Asylum for Bashar Al-Assad as Syria Falls to Rebels
Former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled to Russia, where he has been granted asylum, following his regime's collapse amid a swift rebel advance. Assad's departure on Sunday marks the end of his family's over 50-year rule in Syria. Despite years of support from Russian President Vladimir Putin, including military backing and a strategic foothold in Syria, Russia could not defend Assad's regime as Syrian rebels gained ground, especially after Hezbollah, a key ally, was weakened in the Lebanon war. The BBC, citing Kremlin sources, confirmed Assad's arrival in Moscow but noted it could not independently verify these claims. Russia's support for Assad dates back to the Soviet era and intensified after a failed U.S.-led effort to remove Syria's chemical weapons under President Barack Obama. Although Russia retains a naval presence in Syria's coastal city of Latakia, Assad's downfall highlights the limitations of Russian and Iranian support. Initial reports of Assad's escape flight crashing have since been clarified as referencing a separate incident.
NJ Governor Reports 49 Drone Sightings in One Night, some were not Legitimate
Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey reported 49 drone sightings on Sunday night, though some were later clarified as small planes or multiple reports of the same objects. These sightings follow several weeks of “mystery drone” reports over New Jersey at night, including large drones not usually used by hobbyists. The FBI is investigating the sightings, which included some legitimate drone reports, while others were misidentified as planes or drones spotted by multiple observers. Murphy emphasized that there is no current threat to public safety despite the unexplained activity. He urged residents to consult flight tracking apps to avoid mistaking planes for drones and asked for any sightings to be reported to the FBI. The state is taking the situation seriously, with concerns over sensitive targets and critical infrastructure prompting calls for legislative hearings.
Mysterious Drone Sightings Over Trump NJ Golf Course Prompts FAA Air Restrictions in Area
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has extended temporary flight restrictions over Bedminster, New Jersey, including President-elect Donald Trump’s golf club, due to mysterious drone activity. Initially set to expire on December 6, the restrictions were renewed through December 20. Drones, described as unusually large and equipped with distinctive lighting, have been reported across numerous New Jersey towns since November 18. Residents, including former Air Force Sergeant Walter Ziegler, observed drones with white and red lights, some up to 15 feet in span, hovering and following aircraft near Newark International Airport. Ziegler noted the drones’ lights would turn off as planes approached and reactivate once they passed, raising safety concerns. Law enforcement officials, while stating the drones pose no direct threat to residents, described their presence as "nefarious." The FBI and New Jersey police are investigating, but the drones' origins remain unknown. Apps confirm the drones are not helicopters, and speculation about their potential military use continues, though no conclusive evidence has emerged. The sightings have fueled concerns about aviation security and surveillance.
Local Officials Worried after Drone Spotted Over NJ’s Largest Reservoir
Confirmed mystery drone sightings have been reported near Round Valley Reservoir and the Hunterdon County 911 Center in Flemington, New Jersey, causing concern among local officials. County officials are working closely with federal authorities to investigate the drones, which have been seen hovering over the large reservoir and other county buildings. These sightings follow weeks of nightly drone reports across the state. Despite no known threat to the public, local police and officials are pushing for answers about the mysterious drone activity, particularly over critical infrastructure like water reservoirs and military installations. The FBI is leading the investigation, with Governor Phil Murphy stating that the drones do not currently pose a known threat.
DoD Shoots Down Mothership Claim as Coast Guard Ship Stalked by Unidentified Aircraft
The Pentagon and U.S. Northern Command have dismissed a claim by New Jersey Congressman Jeff Van Drew that there is an "Iranian mothership off the coast of the United States launching drone incursions." This statement came amid a rising number of drone sightings in New Jersey, which have sparked concerns among residents and officials about national security. The Coast Guard confirmed incidents with unidentified aircraft near federal assets, but emphasized there is no evidence of Iranian involvement. The FBI is leading the investigation, and both the FAA and local authorities are working together to monitor and respond to these incursions, including implementing Temporary Flight Restrictions over sensitive areas like Picatinny Arsenal and Trump National Golf Club. The investigation continues to explore the origins and intentions of these drones, with no known threat to public safety at this time.
Clueless FBI Testifies to Congress Over NJ Drone Concerns
A senior FBI official testified to Congress on Tuesday that the bureau is struggling to identify suspected drones flying over New Jersey, a situation that has caused concern among residents and officials. The FBI, along with other agencies, is investigating a series of sightings, including near Picatinny Arsenal and President-elect Donald Trump’s golf club in Bedminster, which have been ongoing for weeks. FBI Assistant Director Robert Wheeler Jr. confirmed that the bureau is actively investigating these “unexplained drone sightings,” emphasizing that there is no attribution to any specific individual or group yet. Concerns were raised by lawmakers about potential nefarious intentions behind these drones, with Wheeler stating there is no known threat. Lawmakers pressed for action, questioning why drones aren’t being shot down over sensitive sites and whether these drones could be linked to tests for security technologies. The FBI’s investigation is ongoing with no clear answers yet as to the purpose or origin of these drone activities.
Biden Suggesting Removal of AL-Qaeda-Linked Group from Terror List, Removing $10MN Bounty Off HTS Leader
President Joe Biden is reportedly considering removing Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamic terrorist group with ties to Al-Qaeda, from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list following its recent takeover of Syria. Biden’s administration is reportedly looking to lift the designation to allow HTS access to foreign assistance and to remove the $10 million bounty on its leader, Abu Muhammad Jawlani. However, former CENTCOM commander retired General Frank McKenzie warned that this could have negative implications for Syria and potentially lead to the rise of a new, even more dangerous Islamic extremist presence. McKenzie noted that terrorist groups like HTS typically do not change their fundamental ideologies, suggesting that the move could have serious regional consequences. This would be the second time under Biden’s presidency that a terrorist group has been removed from the list, as seen previously with the Houthis in Yemen, who have since engaged in significant terrorist activities.
BORDER CRISIS
New ICE Data Reveals Over 58K Illegal Migrants are Felons or Facing Criminal Charges in NYC
New data from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reveals that over 58,000 illegal migrants in New York City, out of 759,218 tracked by the federal government, have criminal histories or pending charges. This represents 7.7% of the city's illegal migrant population. Nationally, about 8.6% of the 7.8 million illegal migrants have prior convictions or ongoing criminal cases. Approximately 1,053 of these individuals in NYC are suspected or known gang members. These numbers highlight concerns over the strain on local law enforcement and resources, especially as the city’s sanctuary policies hinder deportations. NYC ICE Director Kenneth Genalo expressed frustration over limited resources and laws that prevent the removal of criminal migrants. Since spring 2022, over 223,000 migrants have arrived in the city, overwhelming shelters, with many migrants sleeping on the streets. Meanwhile, Mayor Eric Adams has acknowledged the crisis and expressed willingness to work with the incoming administration, though he opposed mass deportations, a stance in contrast to President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.
After Crossing the Southern Border into Texas, 11 Afghan Migrants Caught Mixed in with Other Migrants
On Sunday, Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) Troopers intercepted a group of 176 migrants who had crossed the Rio Grande near Eagle Pass, Texas. Among them were 11 Special Interest Aliens (SIAs) from Afghanistan. The group included a mix of single adults, family units, and unaccompanied minors, with migrants from countries such as El Salvador, Ecuador, Cuba, Colombia, Brazil, and Venezuela. DPS prosecuted 85 individuals for criminal trespassing under Texas state law, while family units and unaccompanied children were transferred to Border Patrol for processing. In a separate incident, Border Patrol apprehended 289 migrants, including seven SIAs from Iran. The term "Special Interest Alien" refers to individuals whose travel patterns or origins raise national security concerns, potentially linked to terrorism. The rise in such crossings, especially from special interest countries, is attributed to violence in Sinaloa, Mexico. This is part of Operation Lone Star, a Texas border security initiative launched in March 2021, which has led to over 518,000 migrant apprehensions and 46,000 criminal arrests.
Illegal Immigration Surged Since 2022 According to Canadian Intelligence
According to Canada’s Border Services Agency, there has been a significant surge in illegal immigrants crossing southward into the United States since 2022. An intelligence document sent to senior officials noted that the majority of these individuals were in Canada for less than six months, with many staying for less than three weeks. They typically arrived by air, primarily at Montreal Trudeau International Airport and Toronto Pearson International Airport, before moving quickly across the border. In response, President-elect Donald Trump warned Canada of a 25% tariff on its products if it did not curb illegal crossings. This prompted Canadian leaders, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, to promise more funding for border surveillance measures. According to immigration lawyer Richard Kurland, the Trudeau government has been aware of this issue for some time but has not publicly acknowledged it.
Report Suggests Biden’s Migration Surge is ‘The Largest in US History’
The New York Times recently acknowledged that the surge in immigration during the Biden administration has been the largest in U.S. history, with projections suggesting total net migration may exceed eight million people. This pace of arrivals, faster than any previous period including the peak years of Ellis Island traffic, reflects a significant shift in the U.S. population dynamics. The recognition from the New York Times comes as Democrats face electoral losses attributed to voters' discontent with these policies. The article highlights how media outlets have often downplayed the scale and economic impact of migration on ordinary Americans, a narrative supported by bipartisan decisions over decades to increase immigration as an economic strategy. Critics argue that this policy, known as "Extraction Migration," has led to lower wages, higher housing costs, and reduced productivity, impacting millions of American workers negatively.
BOHICA!
Germany Unveils $680MN in New Arms Package after Surprise Visit by Scholz
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday, marking his first trip to Ukraine in over two years. After arriving by train, Scholz was greeted by President Zelensky and announced a substantial new military aid package worth 650 million euros ($680 million), to be delivered by the end of the year. This move highlights European leaders' urgency as President-elect Trump prepares to enter office, having pledged to negotiate an end to the war with Russia. Scholz reassured Ukraine of Germany's unwavering support, emphasizing that Germany is committed to being Ukraine’s strongest European ally. In Kyiv, Scholz inspected German-supplied kamikaze drones, a key part of the aid. Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, on a visit to Beijing, criticized the presence of Chinese-made drones used by Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that such support from China and North Korea undermines European security interests. Baerbock’s remarks reflect growing concerns over the internationalization of the conflict, as outside powers like China and North Korea back Russia’s war effort.
Biden Pushing for Additional $24BN to Support Ukraine, Replenish US Weapons Stockpiles
President Joe Biden has requested an additional $24 billion in support for Ukraine and U.S. weapons replenishment, with $16 billion for restocking U.S. weapons stockpiles through the Pentagon’s presidential drawdown authority (PDA) and $8 billion to manufacture weapons for Ukraine’s long-term defense needs. This funding, which aims to strengthen U.S. military readiness and aid Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression, is part of an anomaly funding bill that combines Ukraine aid with other spending priorities. Some Republicans, including Senator Mike Lee and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, oppose the request, arguing that such funding demands should not be approved by the outgoing administration. The request follows a $725 million military aid package for Ukraine, bringing the total since August 2021 to 71 shipments. The U.S. still has over $8 billion in remaining funds from previous aid packages. The administration also informed Congress of plans to forgive $4.65 billion of Ukrainian debt and is pushing for continued support for Ukraine in 2025.
Biden Considers Giving Preemptive Pardons to Liz Cheney, Fauci, and More
President Joe Biden is reportedly considering issuing preemptive pardons for several current and former officials, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, former head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Fauci faced criticism during the COVID-19 pandemic over his controversial recommendations and alleged involvement in gain-of-function research. Senior aides to Biden have raised concerns over the potential actions of President-elect Donald Trump's upcoming administration, particularly following Trump's announcement that Kash Patel will head the FBI in his second term. In addition to Fauci, other officials who may receive preemptive pardons include Sen.-elect Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming. These discussions reflect growing unease within Biden's team regarding the political shifts anticipated with the next administration.
Biden CHVN Program Flying Migrants into US
Dateline May 1st, 2024 - The Biden administration's CHNV program, launched in January 2023, has allowed over 200,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to enter the U.S. through commercial flights, primarily via Florida airports, as part of an effort to provide "safe and orderly pathways." The program, intended to reduce irregular migration, requires migrants to have sponsors and pass vetting. However, critics, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and House Homeland Security Chair Mark Green, have called it unlawful, accusing DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of abusing the Immigration and Nationality Act, which limits parole to case-by-case, temporary use for urgent humanitarian needs. Mayorkas faced impeachment in the House, though the Senate dismissed the case. Despite DHS claims of transparency, Republicans argue the program hides broader border crises, with border apprehensions of migrants from these nations surging from 17,531 in 2020 to over 600,000 by 2022. Critics further allege the program’s categorical parole approach undermines immigration laws, with 1.6 million additional foreign nationals awaiting entry approvals. Litigation against the program continues, reflecting mounting political tension over U.S. border policy.
Biden DHS Docs Reveal Flight Program Which Cities Paroled Migrants are Landing
Dateline May 2024 - The Biden administration's CHNV parole program has facilitated the entry of over 200,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela between January and August 2023, with 80% arriving in Florida cities, primarily Miami and Fort Lauderdale. The program, expanded in January 2023 to include Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Cubans, allows up to 30,000 migrants monthly to enter the U.S. with work permits and two-year residency, provided they meet vetting requirements and have sponsors. Critics argue the program exceeds the Immigration and Nationality Act’s limits on parole for case-by-case humanitarian or public benefit reasons, with Homeland Security Chair Mark Green accusing DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of abusing authority. Legal challenges by 20 states, led by Florida, claim the program unlawfully creates a new visa system, though initial lawsuits have been dismissed. DHS defends the policy as a model to curb irregular migration, citing rigorous vetting and transparency. Meanwhile, 1.6 million additional applicants await approval, fueling ongoing political and legal debates over the program’s legality and border policy implications.
Ukraine to Get Nearly $1BN in Weapons
The Biden administration has announced a $988 million military aid package for Ukraine, part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), to bolster Kyiv's defenses ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Unveiled by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Reagan National Defense Forum, the package includes ammunition for HIMARS, drones, and components for maintaining artillery, tanks, and armored vehicles. The aid draws from the USAI fund, which now has $2.21 billion remaining, and is part of the $8 billion in Congressional-approved funds still available. Since Russia's invasion in February 2022, the U.S. has committed over $62 billion in support to Ukraine. Austin emphasized the stakes, warning of global instability if Russian aggression goes unchecked. Trump, set to take office on January 20, has criticized Ukraine funding and promised a quick resolution to the war, raising uncertainty about future U.S. support. The Biden administration continues ramping up aid, underscoring its commitment as Ukraine's long-term alliance with Washington faces potential shifts.
US Deficit is Exploding in Biden’s Last Few Months in Office
The latest federal budget numbers show that the U.S. deficit is soaring as President Joe Biden prepares to leave office. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s monthly budget review released on Monday, the deficit for the first two months of the fiscal year reached $622 billion, a $242 billion increase from the same period last year. This represents a nearly 40% rise in the deficit compared to last year. The increase is partly attributed to timing shifts in federal payments, but the overall picture highlights a persistent issue with U.S. fiscal management. As the deficit approaches levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns about the future sustainability of U.S. debt are growing, especially given that the deficit for last fiscal year was about $1.8 trillion.
Ukraine to Receive $20BN from Frozen Russian Assets via US Loans
The U.S. Treasury has announced a $20 billion loan to Ukraine, funded by frozen Russian assets, as part of the Group of Seven’s (G7) $50 billion Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans initiative. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated the funds provide crucial support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s ongoing aggression. The initiative, which uses interest earned from immobilized Russian assets, is managed by the World Bank, with the first installment disbursed this month following the G7’s October agreement. President Joe Biden’s pre-election decision to release the loan aimed to ensure aid to Ukraine even after Donald Trump’s election victory. Trump, a critic of U.S. support for Ukraine, casts uncertainty over future assistance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude to Biden, Yellen, and Congress, emphasizing the funding strengthens Ukraine’s sovereignty while holding Russia accountable for its invasion. He praised the initiative as a message of justice and deterrence against future aggression. The full $50 billion loan is slated for disbursement by 2027.
$266MN F-16 Sustainment Sale Approved by US for Ukraine
The U.S. State Department has approved a $266.4 million foreign military sale to Ukraine for sustainment services and related equipment for its F-16 fighter jets, with Congress notified of the decision. The sale includes the Joint Mission Planning System, AN/PYQ-10 Simple Key Loaders, engine improvement programs, spare parts, software, personnel training, and logistics support. Principal contractors are Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, Pratt & Whitney, and Sabena. This follows Ukraine’s efforts to expand its F-16 fleet with Western support, including deliveries from Denmark and ongoing pilot training. The announcement aligns with the U.S.'s recent $988 million military aid package, which included HIMARS ammunition and drones via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
WAR (and rumors of war)
US MILITARY
Another US Long-Range MQ-9 Reaper Drone Crashes in Northern Syria
A U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone conducting a reconnaissance mission in northern Syria has reportedly crashed in a Kurdish-controlled region, with technical malfunctions believed to be the cause. Footage showing the drone’s tail section, resembling the MQ-9 Reaper, surfaced online before the crash was confirmed. The Reaper, a long-range surveillance and strike drone in service since 2001, is capable of high-altitude, long-duration missions and equipped with precision weaponry. The incident occurred amid escalating tensions in Syria, where opposition forces have gained ground against the Russian- and Iranian-backed government of President Bashar al-Assad. The crash follows significant regional military activity, including an Israeli airstrike on December 8 targeting Damascus’s Mezzeh airbase, which resulted in extensive damage, including the destruction of helicopters. This latest drone incident underscores the complexities of the conflict, involving multiple international actors and ongoing military operations. The U.S. has yet to release an official statement, but the incident highlights the operational challenges of maintaining aerial surveillance in contested zones.
USAF B-52s and F-15s Used in Strikes Against ISIS Targets in Syria
The U.S. Air Force launched a major operation targeting over 75 ISIS sites in central Syria, employing B-52 bombers, F-15 fighters, and A-10 aircraft to dismantle leadership, operatives, and camps. The operation, directed by U.S. Central Command (Centcom), aimed to prevent ISIS from regrouping amid regional instability following the recent overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Centcom Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla reaffirmed U.S. commitment to preventing ISIS's resurgence, warning against any group supporting the terror organization. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh highlighted ongoing partnerships with the Syrian Democratic Forces and emphasized the mission’s focus on neutralizing ISIS. The strikes, coordinated with local and international partners, mark a critical moment as Syria transitions after Assad’s regime, a milestone described by Singh as a "fundamental act of justice" after years of brutality. Talks between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler stressed safeguarding civilians and adhering to humanitarian norms. Initial battle damage assessments report no civilian casualties, and evaluations of the operation's impact continue.
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
Aleppo Falls to Rebel Offensive as Syrian Government Grip on Country is Breaking Down
For the first time since Syria's civil war began in 2011, government forces lost control of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, following a swift offensive by Islamist-dominated rebels, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The rebels now dominate Aleppo except for Kurdish-held districts. This marks a major blow to President Bashar al-Assad, whose forces, backed by Russia and Iran, had recaptured the city in 2016. Rebel advances, which also claimed dozens of towns across northern Syria, met minimal resistance. Syrian and Russian airstrikes in Aleppo and the rebel stronghold of Idlib killed dozens, including civilians, highlighting the intensifying conflict. Analysts attribute the regime’s losses to weakened Russian support and reliance on Iran and Hezbollah, the latter facing setbacks after its war with Israel. Assad vowed continued resistance, while the U.S. and UN expressed concern over escalating regional instability. The developments underscore the fragility of Syria's government, with experts warning that losing Aleppo undermines its viability. International calls for diplomacy persist as violence displaces civilians and devastates infrastructure.
Syrian Rebels Capture Some of Russia’s Latest Weaponry Near Hama
Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), reportedly captured the Russian 48Ya6-K1 "Podlet-K1" radar, a critical component of the S-400 and S-300 air defense systems, during an offensive in Hama province. The radar, capable of detecting low-flying threats up to 300 kilometers away, is a cornerstone of Russia’s air defense strategy. Its intact seizure marks a significant risk of reverse engineering, potentially compromising Russian defenses against Western missiles like Storm Shadow and Neptune. Alongside the radar, rebels seized T-90 tanks, BM-21 Grad rocket launchers, and ZSU-23-4 Shilka systems from a Syrian Arab Army base. Rebel forces have encircled Hama, capturing key towns and cutting strategic routes. HTS leader Jolani assured civilians, including Christians in nearby Mhardeh, of their safety. Meanwhile, clashes have escalated in northern Syria between Turkish-backed Syrian National Army forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces near Manbij, with heavy equipment moved to the front lines. Explosions near Tartus, a Russian naval hub, underscore the conflict's broader implications for military system security in volatile regions.
Al-Qaeda Linked HTS Extremists Appoint New Prime Minister of Syria
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a UN-proscribed terrorist group and former Al-Qaeda affiliate, has assumed control over Syria, appointing Mohammad Bashir as head of a transitional authority. Bashir, previously prime minister of the HTS-led Salvation Government in Idlib, is coordinating with outgoing Syrian premier Mohammad al-Jalali for a "smooth transition." HTS, which rebranded multiple times since its origins as the Nusra Front, has a history of war crimes, including public executions and indiscriminate attacks. Despite its terrorist designation by the US, UK, and EU, recent reports suggest the US and UK are reassessing HTS's status to facilitate deeper engagement amid the group’s unexpected rise to power after its swift two-week offensive capturing Damascus. A US official stated the situation demands a "pragmatic" approach. Meanwhile, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, still subject to a US bounty, gave a CNN interview, signaling efforts to rebrand the group further. Syrian embassies worldwide are raising a new national flag under HTS rule, marking a seismic shift in the country’s governance.
Collapse of Syria may not be All Good News for the US According to Ex-CENTCOM Chief
Retired General Frank McKenzie, former CENTCOM commander, cautioned that the collapse of the Syrian government may not be a positive development for the people of Syria, despite Western celebrations over the downfall of Assad. Speaking on ABC News’ “This Week,” McKenzie highlighted the chaotic events of the past 48 hours, noting that the departure of Assad has put Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah on the defensive. While U.S. forces may face less immediate danger, he warned of the potential rise of extremist groups like the Islamic State, which could destabilize the region further. McKenzie emphasized the uncertain future for Syria’s population, suggesting that the next few days will be crucial in determining the outcomes. With a $10 million U.S. bounty on the head of the leader of these extremist factions, he underscored the significant challenges ahead, indicating that the power vacuum left by Assad’s exit could lead to even greater instability.
Israel Targets Equipment, Bases and Chemical Weapons Sites Across Syria
In the aftermath of Syria's government collapse and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants seizing Damascus, Israeli warplanes launched extensive airstrikes across Syria, targeting over 100 sites in 24 hours. Key facilities struck include the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC), long associated with chemical weapons production, a weapons warehouse near Damascus International Airport, and Latakia port. Israel aims to preemptively destroy military technology and weapons previously held by the Assad regime to prevent their use by HTS or pro-Iranian entities like Hezbollah. Reports indicate over 250 Israeli strikes, targeting airbases, jets, and armories. Additionally, Israel seized parts of a demilitarized buffer zone established in 1974, citing security concerns amid Syrian unrest. Critics accuse Israel of exploiting the chaos for territorial expansion. The strikes underscore Israel’s strategy to dismantle arms networks linked to Iran and prevent advanced weaponry from falling into hostile hands. The military campaign reflects broader regional power dynamics, with both Israel and Turkey emerging as strategic beneficiaries of Syria’s destabilization.
Israel Seeks to Destroy Assad Army’s Assets in Overnight Raids as IDF Tanks 16 Miles from Damascus
Israeli tanks have advanced to about 16 miles southwest of Damascus following the seizure of a buffer zone in southern Syria and a series of airstrikes targeting army and air bases overnight. This military operation comes just two days after the rebel alliance led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) overthrew President Bashar al-Assad. Syrian security sources reported that Israeli troops reached Qatana, six miles into Syrian territory east of the demilitarized zone separating the Golan Heights from Syria. Israel has defended its actions as a defensive measure, aimed at securing its border, while international condemnation has come from Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, with concerns about regional instability. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting as Assad fled Damascus for Moscow, marking the collapse of more than 50 years of Baathist rule. The future governance of Syria remains uncertain as discussions for a transitional government are underway.
After Assad Overthrow, Syrian Rebels Impose Sharia and Execute Opponents
Syrian rebels who overthrew the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad on Sunday are reportedly executing their opponents, imposing Islamic sharia law, and threatening non-Muslim minorities, including the Kurdish population in the north. Videos circulating on social media show rebels killing people associated with the regime and enforcing bans on alcohol, similar to methods used by Islamists in Lebanon in the 1980s. The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Islamic State forces killed 54 people in central Syria, including defected Syrian government troops, highlighting the chaos as various rebel factions compete for power. The rebels, supported by Turkey, are also fighting Kurdish-led forces backed by the U.S., demonstrating how different factions are jockeying for control in the post-Assad power vacuum. U.S. Central Command General Erik Kurilla visited Syria to review preparations among U.S. troops and Syrian Democratic Forces, underscoring the volatile situation on the ground. Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on Syrian army positions to prevent rebel access to military resources.
Israeli PM Pledges to Change the Face of the Middle East as IDF Seize Territory and Strike Syria 480 Times
Israel launched a sweeping military campaign across Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime, marking its most extensive operations in decades. Israeli forces conducted 480 airstrikes over two days, targeting strategic weapons depots, airfields, and military infrastructure, with Defense Minister Israel Katz confirming the destruction of Syria's naval fleet. Ground troops entered Syrian territory beyond the demilitarized buffer zone for the first time in 50 years, with forces advancing near Mount Hermon. Prime Minister Netanyahu hailed Assad’s fall as a turning point, linking it to Israel’s broader campaign against Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Israeli officials emphasized efforts to prevent chemical weapons and advanced arms from falling into extremist hands, amid concerns about radical Islamist governance in Syria. Arab nations accused Israel of exploiting Syria’s instability to seize land, a claim Israel denied, asserting its operations aim to establish a security zone free of heavy weapons and terrorist infrastructure. The unprecedented military actions have triggered regional tension, with Arab states and the Arab League condemning Israel’s incursions.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Russian Troops Massing in Southern Ukraine for Possible Cross-River Offensive
Ukraine is facing increasing pressure from Russia in the south as it struggles to defend its positions in the eastern regions and maintain its foothold in Russia's Kursk Oblast. Russian forces have intensified assaults in the Kherson area, attempting to establish a bridgehead in the Dnipro River island zone. According to Ukrainian officials, Russia is aiming to divert Ukrainian resources from other fronts by securing this strategic position. Russian forces have assembled over 300 boats for a potential river crossing, further escalating the situation. Since mid-July, the Kherson region has been subjected to over 9,500 drone attacks, resulting in casualties and infrastructure damage. Despite Ukrainian efforts to establish a bridgehead in Kyrynky and advance from the Kinburn Spit, no significant territorial gains have been made. Ukrainian officials suggest that Russia is attempting to gain as much territory as possible ahead of a potential peace deal following Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House. However, the challenges of crossing the Dnipro, especially with Russian forces facing significant losses, remain a major hurdle.
Ukraine Frontlines are Collapsing Under Steady Onslaught by the Russians
The White House is overseeing a significant increase in military aid to Ukraine, with $725 million in additional defense assistance this week, including a second shipment of antipersonnel mines. This follows a similar move by Germany, which announced $680 million in aid. Despite these efforts, the real challenge for Ukraine remains its diminishing manpower, with reports indicating that Russia’s advances have been accelerating. In October, Russian forces made their largest territorial gain since the start of the invasion, seizing 478 km² in Ukrainian territory. This momentum has continued, with Russia capturing over 2,700 km² of land this year, a stark contrast to the previous year. Experts warn that Ukraine’s eastern front, particularly in Donetsk, could collapse under continued pressure, as Russia rapidly advances, taking multiple villages in recent weeks. As the situation grows more precarious, Ukrainian President Zelensky has shifted his stance, suggesting that Ukraine may be willing to end the war diplomatically if NATO membership is assured, a change from his earlier demands for full territorial return.
Ukraine Says Full NATO Membership or Nothing
Ukraine stated on Tuesday that it will not accept any alternative to full NATO membership, citing the failure of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which marks its 30th anniversary this week. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry emphasized that NATO membership is the only true security guarantee for the country and would eliminate any Russian hopes of hindering Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. The statement criticized the Budapest Memorandum, signed by Ukraine, Russia, the UK, and the US, for its inability to prevent Russia's aggression and the ongoing war. Ukraine described the memorandum as a "strategic mistake" that Russia exploited and a "monument to short-sightedness in strategic security decision-making." The Ukrainian government called on the US, UK, France, China, and other parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) to support Ukraine's NATO membership and offer effective security guarantees. Ukraine also urged the Euro-Atlantic community to recognize that disregarding its interests in European security would ultimately fail.
President Zelensky Reveals Casualty Count as Ukraine on the Verge of Losing Five More Cities
Ukraine is facing the risk of losing five key cities—Chasiv Yar, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk—to Russian forces amid intense fighting in Donetsk Oblast, according to Yehor Firsov, Chief Sergeant of the 109th Brigade’s UAV Strike Company. Firsov described the situation as extremely difficult, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces struggling with shortages of weapons and drones. He noted that Russia was concentrating its efforts in these areas rather than spreading out along the frontline, indicating a significant strategic push. Firsov stressed the critical nature of these battles, warning that the loss of these cities could severely demoralize Ukrainian troops. This warning came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that Kyiv’s casualties had already surpassed 400,000, with significant losses on both sides.
Ukraine ATACMS Strike on Airfield Promises to see Russian Retaliation
Russia accused Ukraine of firing U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles at a military airfield in Taganrog, Rostov region, on Wednesday, vowing retaliation for the attack, which caused minor damage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the strikes, claiming they targeted Russian military and fuel facilities. Moscow’s defense ministry reported intercepting some missiles using air defenses and electronic warfare but warned of “appropriate measures” in response. Concurrently, Russia’s Kursk region saw territorial gains by Moscow’s forces amid ongoing cross-border offensives. Rising tensions include Russian warnings of potential use of its Oreshnik missile, a nuclear-capable weapon last used in Dnipro, escalating the nearly three-year conflict. Both sides have intensified attacks as ceasefire talks gain momentum ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Separately, the death toll from Russia’s Zaporizhzhia strike rose to nine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin drew Kyiv's criticism, with Putin deeming Ukraine’s position “destructive” and Orban claiming Zelensky rejected a proposed Christmas ceasefire, an assertion Kyiv denied, emphasizing European unity against Russia.
INDO-PACIFIC
South Korean President Declares Martial Law
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared "emergency martial law," accusing the opposition of sympathizing with North Korea and engaging in anti-state activities. This move, announced recently, is a significant escalation, with Yoon stating that the opposition's conduct has paralyzed the government's administration. The declaration allows for sweeping powers, including restrictions on press freedom, limiting assembly and association, and suspending the warrant system. Historically, martial law in South Korea has been linked to authoritarian control, notably during the 1979 declaration following the assassination of President Park Chung-hee, which led to political repression and human rights abuses. The move is controversial, as many South Koreans associate martial law with past authoritarian regimes and oppression, particularly in the 1960s to 1980s. The declaration also saw an economic impact, with the South Korean won dropping 1% to a two-year low of 1419.28 against the dollar. The declaration has sparked concerns over the return of military control, particularly if the National Assembly calls for its termination.
Taiwan on ‘High Alert’ due to Increased Presence of Chinese Warships
Taiwan’s military has escalated its alert level to “high” in response to China’s recent activities, which included restricting airspace and deploying dozens of warships and coastguard vessels around the island. The Ministry of National Defense in Taipei launched combat readiness drills and set up an emergency center due to Beijing’s actions, which included nearly 90 naval and coastguard ships near Taiwan, the southern Japanese islands, and the East and South China Seas. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning reaffirmed China’s stance, calling Taiwan an “inalienable” part of China and pledging to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The heightened tensions follow Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te’s recent visits to Pacific allies, which included stops in Hawaii and Guam, drawing sharp reactions from Beijing. The situation underscores the strategic and military pressure Taiwan faces, as it continues to rely heavily on US arms sales for defense.
GEOPOLITICS
US Acting ‘Aggressively’ in Middle East According to Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at an investment conference organized by VTB Bank, criticized the United States for its "aggressive" actions in the Middle East. He argued that geopolitical risks, including US actions in the region, have led to changes in global logistics routes. Putin highlighted the declining volume of cargo passing through the Suez Canal, which he attributed to these risks, noting that many shippers are now rerouting their vessels around Africa. He suggested that the US's actions trigger responses from "resistance forces" in the region, exacerbating economic and logistical challenges. Additionally, Putin commented on US President-elect Donald Trump’s remarks about imposing tariffs on BRICS countries that move away from the US dollar in trade, stating that "certain changes" have taken place in the global economy, particularly in the dollar's role as a global reserve currency. He accused the current US administration of weaponizing the dollar against countries deemed "enemies," undermining the dollar's foundational role in international trade.