Mid-December Sitrep Support

Mid-December Sitrep Support

MID-DECEMBER SITREP SUPPORT 

LEAD STORIES 

U.S. Prepares Gaza “Board of Peace” as Phase Two of Ceasefire Plan Nears

The United States is accelerating preparations for Phase Two of its Gaza peace framework, with President Donald Trump expected to unveil the transitional “Board of Peace” (BoP) later this month, according to a senior Western diplomatic source. The council, chaired by Trump, will function as the interim governing authority for Gaza, overseeing reconstruction funding, supervising security stabilization, and coordinating the handoff to a reformed Palestinian Authority. The BoP will direct an international executive board and appoint a Palestinian technocratic government composed of experts unaffiliated with Hamas or Fatah to administer day-to-day governance. The anticipated December 15 announcement has slipped, with U.S. officials now indicating it may coincide with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s late-December visit to the United States. Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz is in Israel for consultations on implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2803, including oversight of humanitarian corridors and the Civil-Military Coordination Center. Phase Two depends on further Israeli withdrawals, the deployment of an international stabilization force, and demonstrable progress toward Hamas disarmament—an issue Israeli officials fear is being underemphasized as the group reconstitutes its capabilities in areas vacated by the IDF. Additional announcements on the BoP, the technocratic committee, and the international force are expected soon, Waltz said.

Trump Hosts White House Visit for Saudi Crown Prince with F-35 Deal and Israel Talks

President Donald Trump hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House in a high-profile visit resembling a state occasion, including a morning welcome ceremony, Oval Office meetings, and a formal evening dinner, though it is not considered an official state visit as the prince is not the country’s head of state. Ahead of the visit, Trump announced the controversial sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a move likely to shift Middle East military dynamics and draw scrutiny from Israel and Congress. The visit focused on advancing normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations under the Abraham Accords, with discussions on a US defense treaty, a civilian nuclear program, and regional security issues including Sudan’s stability. Trump aims to leverage his personal and political ties, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s long-standing relationship with the prince, to make progress on the accords and other bilateral agreements. The visit coincided with a Saudi-led investment summit in Washington to connect American and Saudi business leaders, following the kingdom’s prior $600 billion U.S. investment pledge. While defense and security agreements are expected to be signed, hurdles remain on Israel normalization and congressional approval for major deals. Trump’s business interests in the region further underscore the strategic and personal dimensions of the visit. 

U.S. Prepares Gaza “Board of Peace” as Phase Two of Ceasefire Plan Nears

The United States is accelerating preparations for Phase Two of its Gaza peace framework, with President Donald Trump expected to unveil the transitional “Board of Peace” (BoP) later this month, according to a senior Western diplomatic source. The council, chaired by Trump, will function as the interim governing authority for Gaza, overseeing reconstruction funding, supervising security stabilization, and coordinating the handoff to a reformed Palestinian Authority. The BoP will direct an international executive board and appoint a Palestinian technocratic government composed of experts unaffiliated with Hamas or Fatah to administer day-to-day governance. The anticipated December 15 announcement has slipped, with U.S. officials now indicating it may coincide with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s late-December visit to the United States. Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz is in Israel for consultations on implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2803, including oversight of humanitarian corridors and the Civil-Military Coordination Center. Phase Two depends on further Israeli withdrawals, the deployment of an international stabilization force, and demonstrable progress toward Hamas disarmament—an issue Israeli officials fear is being underemphasized as the group reconstitutes its capabilities in areas vacated by the IDF. Additional announcements on the BoP, the technocratic committee, and the international force are expected soon, Waltz said. 

Trump Announces National Guard Deployment to New Orleans Amid “Swamp Sweep” Immigration Operation 

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that National Guard troops will soon be sent to New Orleans, joining a planned federal immigration crackdown called “Swamp Sweep,” aimed at arresting thousands. Trump did not specify troop numbers or exact timing, though Republican Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, a staunch Trump ally, said he expects the Guard to arrive before Christmas, following his September request for up to 1,000 federally funded troops to assist with public safety amid alleged elevated violent crime. Landry has welcomed federal involvement in the Democratic-run city despite police data showing New Orleans on pace for its lowest homicide total in nearly 50 years, with 97 murders reported as of early November. Outgoing Mayor LaToya Cantrell and mayor-elect Helena Moreno, both Democrats, oppose federal troop deployment, citing potential disruptions to local traditions, community-police relations, and civil rights concerns. Previous Guard deployments have been used for major events, such as Mardi Gras and security after a 2023 Bourbon Street attack. Landry also indicated troops could be sent to Baton Rouge and Shreveport, where Republican leaders expressed conditional support, favoring state police involvement in some cases. Louisiana joins other recent cities targeted by Trump for National Guard deployment, including Los Angeles, Baltimore, Washington, and Memphis, amid ongoing tension between federal authorities and Democratic local governments over public safety and immigration enforcement.

Failed Coup Attempt Reported in Benin as Military Claims Control 

A group of soldiers briefly announced the dissolution of Benin’s government on state television, claiming to remove President Patrice Talon and all state institutions, and naming Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri as head of a new Military Committee for Refoundation. The announcement triggered alarm, but Benin’s interior and foreign ministers confirmed that the armed forces had quickly regained control, with loyalist troops and the national guard maintaining order. President Talon, who has led the country since 2016 and is scheduled to leave office following elections next April, was not reported harmed, and normal governance appears to have resumed. The attempted coup came shortly after the legislature extended presidential terms from five to seven years while retaining the two-term limit, a move that drew domestic and international attention. Officials emphasized that a significant portion of the army remained loyal to the government, preventing the attempted takeover from succeeding. The incident adds Benin to a growing list of West African nations facing attempted military coups in recent months, reflecting persistent regional instability and the challenges of maintaining democratic transitions amid political tensions.

US – VENEZUELAN TENSIONS 

Trump Confirms Call with Venezuelan President Maduro

President Donald Trump confirmed Sunday that he recently spoke with Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, as U.S.-Venezuela tensions escalate over Washington’s military buildup in the Caribbean and claims that Maduro runs a drug cartel. The U.S. has deployed its largest aircraft carrier, conducted airstrikes on suspected drug-ferrying boats since September, and issued a $50 million reward for Maduro’s capture, actions Caracas views as preparation for a potential attack. Trump described the call with Maduro as neutral, noting discussions reportedly included a possible face-to-face meeting and conditions for amnesty if Maduro steps down, while Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin said the U.S. offered Maduro the option to leave for Russia or elsewhere. Venezuela rejects U.S. allegations of a so-called “Cartel of the Suns” and has sought OPEC’s assistance to counter what it calls growing American aggression aimed at seizing its oil reserves. At least 83 people have died in U.S. strikes, with reports suggesting some attacks targeted survivors, raising accusations of extrajudicial killings. Trump denied that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered follow-up strikes. Despite canceled airline services, Caracas airport remained operational, as both sides maintain a tense standoff while the U.S. presses for measures to curb alleged Venezuelan drug trafficking. 

Trump Gave Maduro Ultimatum to Flee Venezuela Amid Rising Military Pressure 

According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump issued Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro an ultimatum on November 21, demanding he leave the country within a week as U.S. military pressure escalated, including lethal strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats. The call came shortly before the Trump administration designated the Cartel de los Soles—a group Washington alleges is led by Maduro—as a terrorist organization, accusing it of trafficking narcotics into the United States. Maduro reportedly offered to step down if he and his family received amnesty from U.S. sanctions, the ICC case against him was dropped, sanctions on over 100 Venezuelan officials were lifted, and Vice President Delcy Rodriguez could lead a transitional government until new elections. Trump rejected most of these requests and declared Venezuela’s airspace closed after the one-week deadline expired. The U.S. has positioned a substantial military contingent offshore, authorized CIA lethal operations, and conducted strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific, which Washington frames as counter-narcotics measures but which Maduro and Caracas officials denounce as pretexts for regime change and resource seizure. The standoff reflects heightened U.S.-Venezuelan tensions, with Washington framing Maduro as a cartel-linked, illegitimate ruler while Caracas maintains it is facing an externally driven attempt at political overthrow.

Tensions Escalate as Trump Rejects Maduro’s Exit Terms 

Reuters reports that during a recent phone call, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro offered to leave the country, but President Donald Trump rejected nearly all his conditions, including Maduro’s demand that Vice President Delcy Rodríguez lead a transitional government. Trump reportedly set a deadline for Maduro’s departure, which expired last Friday, prompting the U.S. to declare Venezuelan airspace “closed,” fueling speculation of imminent military action as the USS Gerald Ford carrier group and other forces remain deployed in the Caribbean. Meanwhile, a Washington Post report detailed a September strike on a suspected drug-smuggling boat in which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth allegedly ordered U.S. forces to “kill everybody,” resulting in a follow-up strike that killed two survivors. Trump defended Hegseth, stating he has “complete confidence” in him and claiming he personally would not have ordered a second strike, emphasizing uncertainty about whether it occurred. The strikes, which have killed over 80 civilians in prior operations, have raised serious legal and ethical concerns among lawmakers, with Democrats vowing investigations. Hegseth dismissed the WaPo report as “fake news” and insisted the operations were lawful, but legal experts warn that giving or following orders to kill unarmed survivors could constitute war crimes under international law, intensifying scrutiny of U.S. operations against Venezuela. 

Maduro Rejects “Slave’s Peace” as U.S. Naval Pressure Sparks Fears of Escalation 

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro rallied thousands of supporters Monday, denouncing what he called months of U.S. “testing” and warning that Venezuela would never accept “a slave’s peace” as tensions with President Donald Trump’s administration intensified. The United States has deployed a major naval force to the Caribbean—including the world’s largest aircraft carrier—while launching strikes since September on vessels Washington claims were drug traffickers, attacks that have killed at least 83 people without public evidence and that rights groups argue are illegal regardless of the targets. The U.S. has also labeled a Maduro-linked drug cartel a terrorist organization, while Trump has issued stark warnings, including telling aircraft to avoid Venezuelan airspace, fueling fears of possible military action. Maduro insisted the U.S. buildup is aimed at regime change, saying Venezuela has endured 22 weeks of psychological “aggression” and has responded by strengthening its military readiness. Trump confirmed he recently spoke with Maduro for the first time since returning to office but offered no details. In Caracas, hundreds marched to condemn U.S. threats, declaring support for peace but refusing to surrender national sovereignty as the country remains gripped by political turmoil and deep economic hardship. 

Colombia Rejects Trump’s Threat of Military Action Over Drug Trafficking 

Colombia firmly rebuffed President Donald Trump’s suggestion Tuesday that U.S. military action could target countries producing drugs, specifically naming Colombia, framing it as a potential pretext for aggression. The Colombian Foreign Ministry condemned any violation of the country’s sovereignty, while President Gustavo Petro responded on X by inviting Trump to witness Colombia’s ongoing anti-cocaine operations. Trump’s remarks followed broader tensions in the region, including contemplated strikes against Venezuela and U.S. attacks on drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, which Colombia and Venezuela have criticized as unlawful and damaging to regional sovereignty. Reports indicate these strikes killed over 80 people, including Colombian nationals, prompting formal complaints to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, which highlighted risks of extrajudicial killings, due-process violations, and diminished civilian oversight. Trump has previously imposed sanctions on Petro and top Colombian officials, accusing them of aiding the drug trade, while recent UN data show Colombia’s coca cultivation rose 10 percent in 2024. Although Colombia remains a major cocaine producer, it has cooperated with U.S. counter-narcotics efforts, though intelligence sharing was suspended in November following civilian deaths from U.S. operations. The situation underscores growing frictions between U.S. anti-drug policies and Latin American sovereignty, with the Trump administration signaling continued strikes despite diplomatic pushback.

Colombian President Petro Calls for Democracy, Not Military Action, in Venezuela 

Colombian President Gustavo Petro urged Venezuela to embrace broader democracy and political inclusion rather than rely on repression or military mobilization, framing these measures as essential to national defense amid rising regional tensions. Speaking on X, Petro stressed that the Venezuelan government should pursue a “democratic revolution” and implement a general amnesty rather than expanding imprisonment, drawing parallels with post-World War II Europe, where expanded social and political rights motivated resistance against Nazi Germany. He called for a transitional government encompassing all sectors of society and emphasized that Venezuela, “Bolívar’s homeland,” can only be defended through sovereignty and democratic governance, not foreign intervention or coercion. Petro’s remarks come against a backdrop of U.S. military deployments in the Caribbean and accusations that President Nicolás Maduro’s government is linked to lethal drug trafficking. The Venezuelan opposition maintains that Maduro’s reelection in July, granting him a third term, was fraudulent, a view echoed by Washington. Petro’s appeal signals a regional push for political solutions and inclusive governance as alternatives to escalating military tensions. 

Documents Suggest U.S. Plans Multi-Year Military Presence in Caribbean

Department of War documents reviewed by The Intercept indicate the U.S. military is preparing to maintain a large troop presence in the Caribbean for the next three years, signaling the potential for an expanded campaign against Venezuela. The Defense Logistics Agency has contracted massive quantities of food—including baked goods, tortillas, and rolls—for U.S. forces stationed in the “Puerto Rico Zone” from November 2025 through November 2028, covering the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. The buildup already includes 15,000 troops, notably 5,000 sailors aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier with more than 75 attack, surveillance, and support aircraft, alongside at least 13 warships, five support vessels, and a nuclear submarine. President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Venezuela, accusing President Nicolás Maduro of running the Cartel de los Soles—a claim with little verified evidence—and authorizing over 20 airstrikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats, which rights groups label extrajudicial killings. The U.S. has also designated the cartel as a terrorist organization and authorized covert CIA operations. Analysts note that the multi-year logistical planning and expanded naval deployments suggest sustained operations in the Caribbean, raising questions about whether current anti-drug efforts could evolve into a direct Venezuelan military campaign.

Venezuela Swears In 5,600 New Troops as U.S. Military Pressure and Domestic Repression Intensify 

Venezuela swore in 5,600 new soldiers on Saturday amid escalating U.S. military pressure, with Washington deploying warships and the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the Caribbean under what it calls a counter-narcotics mission. American forces have already conducted deadly strikes on more than 20 vessels, killing at least 87 people, while designating the alleged “Cartel of the Suns”—which the U.S. claims Maduro leads—as a terrorist organization. President Nicolás Maduro insists the U.S. buildup is a pretext for toppling his government and seizing Venezuelan oil, prompting renewed military recruitment and vows of resistance from commanders who say they will not allow “imperialist” intervention. Venezuela’s security forces number roughly 200,000 troops and 200,000 police, according to official data. Meanwhile, the country’s human rights crisis deepened after Alfredo Díaz, a former opposition governor imprisoned on terrorism and incitement charges, died in custody—becoming at least the sixth opposition figure to die in prison since November 2024. Rights groups say he had been held in isolation with minimal contact, and accuse authorities of systemic abuse. Opposition leaders Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia condemned the deaths as part of a pattern of post-election repression following last July’s disputed vote, which triggered deadly unrest and mass arrests. 

Trump Signals Possible Expansion of Military Operations Against Drug Cartels 

President Donald Trump indicated he would consider expanding U.S. military operations against drug trafficking targets in countries such as Mexico and Colombia, following a series of strikes in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific against Venezuelan vessels accused of ferrying drugs. Trump has characterized the efforts as part of an “armed conflict” with drug cartels and has overseen a significant buildup of U.S. naval forces in the region since September. In an interview with Politico, he refused to rule out a potential ground operation in Venezuela aimed at ending Nicolás Maduro’s regime, though he emphasized he would not publicly discuss specific military strategies. Trump said he wants Venezuelans, including those living in the United States, to be “treated well” and “respected,” while asserting that Maduro’s “days are numbered.” The president’s comments have intensified speculation over the role of U.S. forces near Venezuela, with Maduro asserting the military presence is intended to pressure him from office. Trump’s remarks highlight a continuation of his administration’s aggressive approach to combating international drug trafficking and reflect a willingness to consider broader regional operations in Latin America, though specific plans and timelines remain unclear. 

U.S. Seizes Sanctioned Venezuelan Oil Tanker, Escalating Tensions 

The United States has seized a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast in a high-profile operation, President Donald Trump announced Wednesday, marking the first such action since a major U.S. military buildup in the region. The tanker, believed to be the Skipper, had loaded approximately 1.1 million barrels of Venezuela’s Merey crude and was targeted for involvement in Iranian oil trading. The operation involved the FBI, Homeland Security, Coast Guard, and U.S. military personnel, with video showing helicopters and armed personnel boarding the vessel. Trump framed the move as part of ongoing pressure on President Nicolas Maduro, who has resisted U.S. demands to step down. The seizure drove Brent crude up 0.4% to $62.21 per barrel, reflecting concerns over prompt supply availability, although analysts noted the barrels were already in transit. Chevron reported its Venezuelan operations remained unaffected. The action adds to a series of U.S. strikes against suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific since September, which have killed more than 80 people and raised legal and political questions. Experts warn the tanker seizure heightens geopolitical risks while underscoring Washington’s aggressive strategy to assert influence over Venezuela’s oil sector and Maduro’s government.

Venezuela Denounces U.S. Oil Tanker Seizure as “Piracy” 

Venezuela has condemned the U.S. seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean, accusing Washington of piracy and resource theft. Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed the vessel, identified as the Guyana-flagged Skipper (formerly Adisa), was transporting Venezuelan and Iranian crude in violation of U.S. sanctions. Caracas described the operation as a “blatant theft and an act of international piracy,” with Foreign Minister Yvan Gil Pinto asserting that seizing Venezuelan oil has long been a deliberate objective of the U.S. government. The tanker reportedly departed Venezuela’s Puerto Jose port on December 4–5 with approximately 1.1 million barrels of heavy crude. President Nicolas Maduro framed the seizure within a broader U.S. strategy to overthrow his government, rejecting claims that he is linked to drug cartels and warning against escalating military conflict. Venezuela’s denunciation underscores mounting tensions in the Caribbean, where U.S. sanctions and recent military deployments have heightened fears of confrontation, while Caracas insists it will vigorously defend its sovereignty, natural resources, and national dignity against perceived “imperial abuses.” 

U.S. Deploys EA-18G Growlers to Puerto Rico, Signaling Expanded Operational Options in Caribbean 

A squadron of six U.S. Navy EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets has been forward-deployed to the former Naval Station Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico, marking a notable escalation in U.S. force posture in the Caribbean. These aircraft serve as force multipliers, capable of providing electronic warfare support for standoff strikes, penetrating adversary air defenses, and enhancing survivability of munitions and personnel in potential kinetic operations, including scenarios involving Venezuela. Some of the Growlers carry the new AN/ALQ-249(V)1 Next Generation Jammer-Mid Band (NGJ-MB) pods, offering advanced jamming capabilities, modular upgrades, and intelligence-gathering to map enemy air defenses and communications nodes. The jets can also directly attack surface and air defense targets with AGM-88 anti-radiation missiles, while self-defense is provided by AIM-120 AMRAAMs. The deployment doubles the number of EA-18Gs already in the Caribbean with Carrier Air Wing aboard USS Gerald R. Ford, joining a larger U.S. presence of roughly 15,000 personnel, including Marine F-35B units and special operations forces. While official missions remain counter-drug operations, the Growlers’ advanced capabilities indicate readiness for potential high-intensity operations, complementing ongoing U.S. pressure campaigns against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who faces U.S. indictments and a $50 million reward for his capture.

U.S. Marines Train with Ukrainian-Style FPV Drones in Forward Deployment Near Venezuela 

U.S. Marines from the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (Special Operations Capable) are conducting intensive first-person view (FPV) drone training at Camp Santiago, Puerto Rico, in an exercise directly shaped by Ukrainian battlefield tactics. Led by the 2nd Marine Division and the Marine Corps Attack Drone Team, the training certifies FPV attack crews on the Archer drone, a U.S.-made, combat-proven platform capable of carrying a 4.5‑pound payload over more than 20 kilometers. The activity supports U.S. Southern Command missions and executive-level objectives focused on disrupting transnational crime while bolstering forward-deployed readiness near Venezuela. Manufactured by California-based Neros Technologies, Archer forms part of the Pentagon’s PBAS effort to field low-cost, expendable drones, with Neros also supplying U.K. defense authorities. Reconnaissance during the exercise is provided by the Skydio X2D, a U.S.-designed quadrotor offering real-time ISR for target confirmation and strike coordination. The Marine Corps’ adoption of FPV drone tactics reflects a wider NATO shift driven by Ukrainian innovations in low-cost unmanned warfare, particularly the use of operator-guided drones to counter armored and infantry formations.

UN Report Finds Venezuelan National Guard Committed Crimes Against Humanity in Systematic Crackdown 

A United Nations-mandated fact-finding mission has concluded that Venezuela’s Bolivarian National Guard (GNB) committed serious human rights violations and crimes against humanity for more than a decade as part of a coordinated campaign to persecute opponents of President Nicolás Maduro. The report details patterns of arbitrary killings, detentions, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, planted evidence, and the use of excessive and often lethal force during protest waves in 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2024. Investigators found the GNB played a central role in a highly centralized chain of command directed by Maduro, enabling structural impunity and preventing meaningful judicial accountability. The findings emerge as 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado—currently in hiding after threats on her life—prepares to address the world from Oslo. Security forces have long been accused of repressing mass demonstrations, and the UN report underscores that Venezuela’s justice system is either unable or unwilling to investigate abuses. The international community, including the United States, Europe, and many Latin American governments, has rejected the results of Venezuela’s contested 2024 election that secured Maduro a third term. With more than seven million Venezuelans having fled since 2013, the report warns that systematic repression remains a defining feature of the country’s deepening political and humanitarian crisis. 

IMMIGRATION CRISIS

Afghan Man Pleads Not Guilty in Deadly White House-Area Shooting 

An Afghan man accused of fatally shooting a National Guard member and wounding another near the White House last month pleaded not guilty Tuesday to first-degree murder and related firearms charges while appearing via video from a hospital bed. Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, is charged with killing 20-year-old Sarah Beckstrom of West Virginia and critically wounding fellow Guardsman Andrew Wolfe during a patrol outside a downtown metro station on November 26. According to a criminal complaint, Lakanwal ambushed the soldiers, reportedly shouting “Allahu Akbar” as he fired; a third Guard member returned fire, wounding and restraining him. Lakanwal, who entered the U.S. through a resettlement program following the 2021 Afghan military withdrawal, had previously fought the Taliban as part of a CIA-backed “partner force.” Authorities are investigating potential radicalization after his arrival in the U.S. President Trump’s administration suspended Afghan visas and froze asylum decisions after the attack, which coincided with Thanksgiving. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced plans to seek the death penalty, and Magistrate Judge Renee Raymond ordered Lakanwal detained until his next hearing on January 14. Separately, the Justice Department charged another Afghan man in Texas, Mohammad Dawood Alokozay, with threatening a bomb attack in a social media video, illustrating continued concerns over security risks linked to radicalized arrivals. 

Border Czar Calls Afghan Resettlement Under Biden a “National Security Failure” After Shooting 

Border czar Tom Homan told Fox News on Nov. 30 that the Biden administration’s Operation Allies Welcome, which resettled thousands of Afghan nationals following the 2021 U.S. withdrawal, represented “the biggest national security failure in the history of the nation.” Homan cited a DHS Office of Inspector General report showing multiple vetting gaps, including missing or invalid travel documents for thousands of evacuees and unclear “facilitation documents” used in entry processing. The criticism comes after 29-year-old Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who entered the U.S. under the program, shot two West Virginia National Guard members on Nov. 26, killing one and critically wounding the other. In response, the State Department paused visa issuance for Afghan passport holders, while USCIS halted asylum decisions until thorough vetting could be ensured. Homan also noted that prior administration policies allowed over 10 million illegal immigrants to enter the U.S., including “gotaways” who evaded authorities, contrasting it with current efforts he described as providing “the most secure border in the history of this nation.” CBP data show October apprehensions at the southwest border dropped to 7,899, roughly 95% below the prior administration’s monthly average, reflecting the administration’s focus on tighter immigration and border controls. 

Afghan Immigrants Face Heightened ICE Scrutiny Following Guard Shooting 

Following the Nov. 26 shooting of two National Guard troops by an Afghan national, U.S. immigration authorities have sharply increased arrests and scrutiny of Afghan immigrants, including asylum seekers and those brought under Operation Allies Welcome. Volunteers and attorneys report that Afghan men are being handcuffed immediately upon reporting to ICE offices, often despite having complied with all legal requirements. In Northern California, at least nine arrests occurred in Sacramento alone, part of roughly two dozen nationwide. Many affected had no criminal records, though authorities cited public safety concerns and alleged ties to terrorism. The Trump administration is reportedly reexamining all Afghan nationals admitted under Biden, pausing asylum applications, and imposing additional vetting measures. Advocates argue the crackdown amounts to collective punishment for a community that risked their lives supporting U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera condemned the targeting of Afghans who served alongside U.S. forces. Incidents in Iowa and Northern California highlight widespread fear, as ICE agents reportedly called some immigrants “terrorists” and canceled scheduled immigration interviews. Lawyers and volunteers warn the measures have caused profound anxiety for families, disrupting resettlement efforts and leaving many uncertain about their legal status amid heightened enforcement. 

Treasury Moves to Restrict Federal Benefits for Illegal Immigrants 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Friday that the U.S. Treasury is working to eliminate federal benefits for illegal immigrants, ensuring programs like the Earned Income Tax Credit, Additional Child Tax Credit, American Opportunity Tax Credit, and Saver’s Match Credit are reserved for U.S. citizens. Bessent’s statement followed President Donald Trump’s Thanksgiving declaration to pause all migration from third-world countries and end federal benefits for noncitizens deemed public charges or security risks. Trump cited a “foreign population” of 53 million in the U.S., asserting many rely on welfare while coming from failed states or criminal backgrounds. Bessent emphasized that illegal immigrants should have no access to the financial system, warning that the exploitation of U.S. financial institutions by illicit funds will end. The announcement comes amid reports of widespread fraud in Minnesota during Democrat Gov. Tim Walz’s tenure, where billions in taxpayer dollars were allegedly funneled through shell companies and fake nonprofits, with some ending up in the hands of the al-Qaeda-linked group Al-Shabaab. Additional reports indicate that, despite legal restrictions, millions of illegal immigrants continue to receive SNAP and certain healthcare benefits, highlighting vulnerabilities in federal and state welfare systems.

Trump Administration Locates 62,000 Smuggled Children, Strengthens Border Enforcement 

White House border czar Tom Homan announced that since taking office, the Trump administration has located more than 62,000 children illegally smuggled into the United States, rescuing some from sex trafficking, forced labor, and abuse. Homan criticized the previous administration for losing track of an estimated 300,000 children, many of whom were released to “unvetted sponsors.” Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data shows border encounters continue to decline, with 30,367 reported nationwide in November, compared with over 301,981 in December 2024. Border Patrol has maintained a seven-month streak of releasing zero illegal aliens. Trump’s administration has also implemented multiple executive orders targeting illegal immigration, including declaring a border emergency, designating criminal gangs as terrorist organizations, and launching enforcement operations in major U.S. cities. In addition, immigration applications—including green cards—from 19 countries subject to a travel ban have been paused following security concerns. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case challenging Trump’s January executive order seeking to end birthright citizenship, while Democrats and some state leaders continue to oppose the administration’s deportation and border policies. CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott emphasized the administration’s focus on securing the border, enforcing the law, and protecting the nation. 

Trump Administration Expands ICE Air Fleet with $140M Boeing Purchase to Accelerate Deportations 

The Trump administration is moving to speed up deportations by buying six Boeing 737 planes for ICE Air operations, a $140 million contract designed to reduce reliance on outside contractors, according to The Washington Post. Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said the effort could save $279 million and allow ICE to operate more efficiently, including optimizing flight patterns. The move comes amid a push to deport more undocumented immigrants; Trump’s Border Czar, Tom Homan, reported over 579,000 removals so far, short of the administration’s goal of one million per year. The contract was awarded to Daedalus Aviation, founded in February 2024, which provides full-service commercial and charter aviation operations. Funding for the initiative comes from the Republican-backed One Big Beautiful Bill, which allocated $165 billion to DHS earlier this year. A prior plan to buy 10 737s from Spirit Airlines faced criticism over cost-effectiveness and missing engines. ICE officials have warned that the intensified deportation targets place unsustainable pressure on agency resources. The acquisition reflects the administration’s commitment to accelerating removals of criminal illegal immigrants, aligning with broader immigration enforcement priorities.

BOHICA! 

House Releases 2026 NDAA with $8B Boost, Troop Pay Raises, and “Peace Through Strength” Agenda 

With Congress entering its second-to-last week of session, the House Armed Services Committee released the final text of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), allocating roughly $8 billion above the Pentagon’s $892.6 billion request. The legislation funds critical procurement—including $26B for shipbuilding, $38B for aircraft (full funding for the Navy’s F/A-XX), $4B for ground vehicles, $25B for munitions, and $145.7B for emerging technologies like hypersonics, AI, quantum, and directed energy—and includes $685M for Israeli missile defense and $400M for Ukraine security assistance in FY26–27. Servicemembers receive a 3.8% pay raise, expanded bonuses, and $2.5B in quality-of-life investments for barracks, childcare, dining, healthcare, and schools. The NDAA permanently eliminates DoD DEI programs, enforces merit-based promotions, and supports border security, counter-drug operations, and industrial base revitalization. Nuclear triad modernization, missile defense updates, and Indo-Pacific deterrence receive priority funding, alongside AI, cyber, and innovation programs. Section 1249 restricts EUCOM troop withdrawals below 76,000 without 60-day congressional certification. The law repeals the 2002 Iraq AUMF and codifies Trump-era policy priorities, combining conservative reform goals with strategic defense investments to strengthen U.S. military capabilities and allied cooperation. 

Trump Announces $12 Billion Bailout for Farmers Affected by Trade Tariffs 

President Donald Trump unveiled a $12 billion aid package on Monday aimed at American farmers, particularly soybean growers, who have been hit hard by his administration’s tariffs on China. The majority of the funds—up to $11 billion—will be distributed through the Department of Agriculture’s new Farmer Bridge Assistance program as one-time payments to help farmers manage debt and plan for upcoming crop seasons. Speaking at the White House alongside soybean, corn, cotton, sorghum, rice, cattle, wheat, and potato farmers, Trump highlighted that the funds would come from tariff revenues, which have totaled roughly $260 billion this year. He criticized former President Joe Biden’s policies, noting a 55% increase in farm bankruptcies under Biden, and emphasized his commitment to putting farmers first. The trade war with China had halted U.S. soybean exports until a late-October deal, causing estimated losses of $13 billion for soybean, wheat, and corn farmers. China has since agreed to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by year-end, with just over two million tons delivered so far. The bailout echoes Trump’s previous $28 billion support for farmers and reinforces his strong backing among rural voters, who provided him increased support in the 2024 election. 

 

 WAR (and rumors of war) 

US MILITARY 

CENTCOM, Syrian Forces Destroy 15+ ISIS Weapons Sites in Major Joint Operation 

U.S. Central Command and Syria’s Interior Ministry confirmed a sweeping joint campaign that eliminated more than 15 ISIS weapons-storage sites across southern Syria’s Rif Damashq province between Nov. 24–27, marking one of the most coordinated U.S.-Syrian efforts since ISIS’s territorial defeat in 2019. The operation, conducted by U.S. forces under CJTF–Operation Inherent Resolve alongside Syrian military units, used a mix of precision airstrikes and controlled ground detonations to destroy over 130 mortars and rockets, machine guns, assault rifles, anti-tank mines, IED-making components, and even illicit drugs found at the cache sites. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the mission was aimed at preventing ISIS from regenerating or projecting attacks abroad. The strikes come as ISIS remnants attempt to rebuild shadow networks despite being crushed by the U.S.-led coalition years earlier. Damascus announced its own pre-emptive nationwide raids ahead of Nov. 10 Washington talks between President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda commander now lobbying for relief from U.S. sanctions. That same day, the U.S. Treasury extended its suspension of Caesar sanctions enforcement for another 180 days, though it emphasized that only Congress can fully lift the sweeping measures that continue to block reconstruction funding and foreign investment in Syria. 

USS Gerald Ford Begins Caribbean Operations 

The U.S. Navy supercarrier USS Gerald Ford has commenced flight operations in the Caribbean, signaling an increased American military posture toward Venezuela. Images released by the Department of War show F-18E/F fighters and E/A-18G electronic attack jets simulating strikes on Venezuelan targets, following the carrier group’s redeployment. While delays integrating F-35C jets with the Gerald Ford’s electromagnetic catapult system have restricted the carrier to fourth-generation aircraft, F-35s stationed in Puerto Rico can provide advanced capabilities if combat operations proceed. The F-18E/F fleet, which has formed the backbone of U.S. naval aviation for nearly two decades, has been partially modernized to the Block 3 standard, but most aircraft remain technologically dated compared with fifth-generation fighters. In parallel, U.S. B-52H Stratofortress and B-1B Lancer bombers have conducted simulated strike exercises over the Caribbean, demonstrating strategic reach. Venezuela has responded with military drills and long-range patrols using Su-30MK2 fighters, which, while heavier and longer-ranged than F-18s, lack comparable avionics and weapons integration. The South American nation’s S-300VM surface-to-air missile network remains a key element of its air defense, underscoring the region’s heightened tensions as the U.S. continues to pressure Caracas amid ongoing diplomatic and military maneuvers.

Golden Dome Procurement Push Accelerates with Massive SHIELD Contract 

The Pentagon has launched a major acceleration of its homeland air- and missile-defense buildout, awarding a $151 billion Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) contract that opens the door for more than 1,000 companies to compete for task orders through 2035. Selected from 2,463 bids, the 1,014 qualifying offerors represent one of the broadest industrial pools ever assembled for a Missile Defense Agency program, reflecting the urgency behind President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome initiative—a sweeping domestic defense architecture centered on space-based interceptors. No money is obligated yet, but future orders will cover more than 19 technical areas, including prototyping, weapons design, cybersecurity, AI-enabled targeting applications, digital engineering, and model-based systems engineering. The move follows this summer’s industry mobilization effort in Huntsville and coincides with early, undisclosed Space Force prototype awards for boost-phase space interceptors. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told White House officials he reviewed Golden Dome’s finalized architecture but has not confirmed signing its implementation directive. With SHIELD now in place, the Pentagon is positioned to rapidly field new homeland defense capabilities, deepen industry participation, and push AI-driven, open-architecture systems into operational service at unprecedented speed.

Pentagon Seeks to Rapidly Produce 300,000 Low-Cost Attack Drones in Two-Year Industrial Push 

The U.S. War Department has issued a formal request for information to assess industry’s ability to mass-produce 300,000 low-cost attack drones, launching a $1 billion effort meant to dramatically expand America’s small unmanned aerial systems inventory. Beginning in early 2026, the initiative—structured in four production “gauntlets”—will contract with industry to build roughly 340,000 one-way attack drones over two years using funds from President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” The first phase, running February to July 2026, will involve 12 vendors producing 30,000 drones at $5,000 each. Subsequent phases will shrink the vendor pool to five while scaling orders up to 150,000 units and driving costs down to about $2,300 per drone. War Secretary Pete Hegseth said the drone dominance program is designed to simultaneously boost production capacity and reduce unit costs, delivering tens of thousands of drones in 2026 and hundreds of thousands in 2027. Officials argue that the effort will rebuild industrial depth lost after post–Cold War defense cuts and ultimately allow the Pentagon to purchase large quantities of drones at sustainable prices through normal budgets. Beyond procurement, Hegseth emphasized that new drone-centric doctrine will be essential as the U.S. shifts from prioritizing exquisite platforms to mass, expendable combat systems. 

U.S. Navy Recovers F/A-18F and MH-60R from South China Sea Following Accidents 

The U.S. Navy successfully recovered an F/A‑18F Super Hornet and an MH‑60R Seahawk from roughly 400 feet below the sea off the USS Nimitz after both aircraft were lost in separate mishaps on October 26, 2025, within a half-hour of each other. The recovery, completed on December 5 in the Indo-Pacific, involved a coordinated effort from Commander, Task Force 73 (CTF 73), Task Force 75, SUPSALV, CTG 73.6’s Mobile Diving and Salvage Unit, and other Navy personnel, using a contracted vessel equipped with a government-operated unmanned lift system. Lt. Cmdr. Christopher Andersen praised the operation as a demonstration of Navy integration, readiness, and salvage expertise. The recovered aircraft are now en route to a U.S. military facility in the region for detailed analysis, though the causes of the incidents remain under investigation. The operation carried strategic urgency due to the proximity to the South China Sea, a heavily monitored maritime area near China, to prevent sensitive technology or components from falling into foreign hands. While no details have been released regarding the aircraft condition at the time of recovery, the mission underscores the Navy’s capability to secure high-value assets in contested waters and highlights the operational risks in one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.

Global Military Spending Hits $2.7 Trillion as Defense Industry Booms 

Global military expenditure surged 9% to a record $2.7 trillion in 2024, marking the steepest annual rise since at least 1992, driven by ongoing conflicts such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel-Hamas hostilities, according to SIPRI. Europe led the surge with a 17% increase, with neighboring nations like Poland and Romania posting rises of 31% and 43%, respectively, while Ukraine spent $67 billion—34% of its GDP—on defense. The Middle East also contributed with a 15% rise. The spending boom generated record revenues for the world’s top 100 defense companies, which collectively earned $679 billion, led by the U.S. giants Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, Boeing, and General Dynamics, which secured $770 billion in Pentagon contracts between 2020–2024. U.S. dominance is reinforced through Foreign Military Sales and Foreign Military Financing programs, which funnel global aid toward American-made weapons, although rising demand is straining production. Meanwhile, global competition intensifies as Japan, South Korea, and Europe benefit from defense spending, while China faces revenue setbacks due to procurement delays. Emerging technologies, especially drones, threaten traditional weapons systems, potentially shifting market share to smaller, more agile firms and signaling a technological transformation in the global arms industry.

U.S. Approves $2.68 Billion Bomb Sale to Canada Amid Ottawa’s Rapid Defense Buildup 

The United States has approved a $2.68 billion weapons sale to Canada, a major package that includes thousands of precision-guided and unguided bombs as Prime Minister Mark Carney accelerates defense spending amid rising strategic uncertainty and questions over Washington’s long-term commitments. The sale covers up to 3,414 BLU-111 500-pound bombs designed for use against troop formations, 3,108 GBU-39 small-diameter bombs for high-accuracy strikes on fixed targets, and more than 5,000 JDAM kits that convert traditional bombs into guided munitions. The U.S. State Department said the transfer will bolster Canada’s deterrence capabilities, enhance interoperability with U.S. forces, and strengthen North American defense cooperation. Carney announced in August that Canada would meet NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending benchmark this year—well ahead of schedule—citing growing concern about Russia’s military posture in the Arctic and uncertainty about the U.S. role in global security under President Donald Trump. Trump has frequently criticized NATO allies for underspending and has at times belittled Canada, previously suggesting it should become the United States’ “51st state.” The arms sale underscores how Ottawa is expanding its defense posture even as bilateral political dynamics remain strained.

U.S. Clears $3.73 Billion Missile and Air Defense Sale to Denmark 

The U.S. State Department has approved a combined $3.73 billion Foreign Military Sale to Denmark, authorizing both a major air-to-air missile package and a fully integrated ground-based air defense system as Washington continues deepening defense ties with Nordic allies. The first sale, valued at $730 million, provides Copenhagen with 200 AIM-120C-8 advanced air-to-air missiles—America’s latest AMRAAM variant—along with additional guidance and control sections, containers, spare parts, software support, technical publications, transport, and comprehensive contractor and U.S. government engineering and logistics services, with RTX Corporation named as the primary contractor. The second and significantly larger package, worth roughly $3 billion, equips Denmark with a full Integrated Battle Command System featuring Indirect Fire Protection Capability. The request includes 24 All Up Round Magazines, eight launchers, two Sentinel A4 radars, engagement operations centers, collaborative environments, fire control network relays, encrypted communications, GPS equipment, Identification Friend or Foe systems, generators, training suites, test tools, spares, and field support teams to ensure full operational integration. RTX, Lockheed Martin, Leidos, and Northrop Grumman will serve as principal contractors. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency formally notified Congress following State Department approval, marking one of Denmark’s largest air defense procurements to date. 

FORTRESS EUROPE 

Poland Puts Patriots on Alert as Russian MiG-31I Ballistic Missile Jets Patrol Baltic 

The Polish Air Force placed U.S.-supplied MIM-104 Patriot long-range air defense systems on high alert at Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport after four Russian MiG-31I jets, capable of carrying air-launched 9K720 ballistic missiles, flew westward over the Baltic Sea. Although the aircraft remained in Russian airspace, their advanced targeting range and prior use in Ukraine—where they have successfully struck and evaded Patriot systems—prompted heightened concern. The MiG-31I, a 2022 upgrade of the MiG-31K, has demonstrated exceptional combat flexibility, capable of launching both conventional and nuclear missiles, as well as anti-satellite weapons, while operating at Mach 2+ speeds and near-space altitudes. Combat operations in Ukraine have shown Patriot intercept rates against MiG-31I strikes at roughly six percent, raising questions about the effectiveness of Polish and German air defenses within NATO’s expanded missile umbrella, now including recent deployments prompted by alleged Russian drone incursions. The aircraft operates alongside Il-78 tankers for extended range and loitering capability, and Russia has modernized hundreds of stored MiG-31s to maintain the fleet. Previously deployed to Syria, Belarus, and Kaliningrad, MiG-31 variants—including the BM interceptor—remain central to Russia’s strategy for beyond-visual-range engagements and strategic missile deployment near NATO borders. 

NATO Commander Advocates More Aggressive Measures Against Russia 

At a time when Washington under President Trump is publicly urging restraint and pursuing a Ukraine peace deal, NATO’s Military Committee Chair, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, has suggested the alliance consider a more proactive and aggressive stance against Russia. In an interview with the Financial Times, Dragone cited an increase in Russian hybrid warfare, including cyberattacks, sabotage, and airspace violations, and suggested that under certain circumstances pre-emptive strikes could be justified as defensive actions. While acknowledging legal and jurisdictional complexities, he emphasized that a reactive approach alone risks emboldening Moscow. Eastern European and Baltic diplomats have echoed calls for more assertive measures, warning that asymmetric hybrid warfare imposes disproportionate costs on the West. Analysts note that years of covert operations targeting Russia have already contributed to the conflict’s escalation, intensifying nuclear rhetoric and battlefield casualties. Reports highlight the human toll on Ukraine’s forces, with young volunteers like 20-year-old Pavlo Broshkov suffering devastating losses despite financial incentives. The Kremlin criticized Dragone’s statements, with spokesperson Maria Zakharova labeling them “extremely irresponsible” and indicative of NATO’s willingness to escalate tensions further. The comments underscore the persistent tension between diplomatic restraint and calls for a more confrontational military strategy in the ongoing Ukraine war.

Russia Condemns NATO’s “Pre-Emptive” Strike Talk as Escalation Risk 

Russia has strongly criticized remarks from NATO’s top military commander, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, suggesting the alliance could consider “pre-emptive” strikes against Moscow in response to hybrid warfare tactics like cyberattacks and sabotage. Dragone told the Financial Times that NATO is evaluating a more proactive stance, acknowledging that such actions could be classified as defensive but represent a departure from the alliance’s usual reactive posture. Moscow’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called the comments “an extremely irresponsible step” signaling NATO’s readiness to escalate tensions. NATO has faced frequent cyberattacks, often linked to Russia, as part of hybrid warfare, including information operations, migration manipulation, and infrastructure targeting. Recent incidents, such as suspected sabotage of undersea cables and oil tankers in the Baltic and North Seas, highlight the challenges of attribution and legal jurisdiction, complicating proactive NATO measures. Dragone noted that issues around legal frameworks and responsibility for policing vulnerable areas like the Baltic and North Seas make operational decisions complex. With hybrid threats ongoing, including drones entering Polish airspace triggering NATO’s Article 4 consultations, officials stress the need to strengthen anti-drone defenses while navigating the delicate balance between deterrence and escalation. 

Russia Warns of Potential French Military Involvement in Ukraine 

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has raised alarms over France’s possible direct involvement in the Ukraine war, citing a recent government decree allowing private military companies to support foreign state actors in armed conflict. Moscow interprets this as targeting Ukraine, warning that French personnel operating in the country, including those managing sophisticated systems like donated Mirage 2000 fighter jets, would be considered direct intervention and high-priority targets. Russian statements imply some French specialists may already be present in Ukraine, reflecting broader trends of Western contractors and advisors playing critical roles since early 2022, from British Royal Marines engaging in combat to U.S. Forward Observations Group contractors supporting operations inside Russia. Russian forces have historically targeted these personnel, most notably in a January 16, 2024 missile strike that killed at least 60 primarily French contractors, temporarily disabling advanced Ukrainian weaponry. European calls for escalated involvement have grown alongside Ukraine’s military struggles, with leaders from Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, and Finland advocating intervention. France, alongside the UK, has been among the most supportive, with Prime Minister Kier Starmer announcing readiness to lead a coalition deploying troops and aircraft. French Land Forces Commander General Pierre Schill signaled potential ground deployments in 2026, though Europe’s limited capabilities and reliance on U.S. support remain key constraints on escalation. 

Former UK Navy Chief Warns Nation Cannot Sustain Nuclear Submarine Program 

Retired Rear Admiral Philip Mathias, a former director of nuclear policy for the U.K. Ministry of Defense, warned that the United Kingdom is “no longer capable” of managing its nuclear submarine program, citing severe delays, maintenance backlogs, and extended patrols that now exceed 200 days—nearly three times the Cold War average. Speaking to The Telegraph, Mathias described the situation as “an unprecedented… catastrophic failure of succession and leadership planning,” arguing that the Royal Navy’s “silent service” may be unable to recover without major intervention. He highlighted delays in the Dreadnought and Astute-class programs, operational shortfalls in SSN-AUKUS submarines under the AUKUS deal, and the extended time many vessels spend idle in port. The Royal Navy currently operates six Astute-class and four Vanguard ballistic missile submarines, though at least one Vanguard patrols at any given time. Mathias warned that these challenges undermine the U.K.’s ability to counter rising Russian activity in the North Atlantic, which has increased by over 30%, according to Defense Secretary John Healey. He recommended reconsidering the AUKUS agreement with the U.S. and Australia, suggesting the current path will not meet Britain’s strategic needs or timelines for nuclear deterrence. 

UK Confirms First Official Military Death in Ukraine 

Lance Corporal George Hooley of the UK’s Parachute Regiment has been confirmed as the first official British military casualty in Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense announced, marking the first public acknowledgment of UK paratroopers operating in the country. The 28-year-old was killed in what officials described as a “tragic accident” while observing Ukrainian forces testing a new defensive system away from the front lines, with reports indicating no hostile fire was involved. Hooley’s death comes amid ongoing British support for Ukraine, including arms deliveries and the training of over 56,000 Ukrainian soldiers through the UK-led Operation Interflex. While London has acknowledged a limited number of personnel in supportive roles, Russian sources, including the Telegram channel Rybar, claim at least 100 British citizens are part of an “International Legion of Territorial Defence of Ukraine,” with roughly 40 UK nationals reported killed in combat since 2022. Moscow has repeatedly stated that Western military assistance effectively makes foreign countries participants in the conflict, warning that foreign troops on Ukrainian soil will be treated as legitimate targets. Hooley’s death highlights the risks faced by international personnel assisting Ukraine, even outside direct combat, and underscores the growing complexity of foreign involvement in the ongoing war. 

MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL 

Israel Begins Construction of 500km High-Tech Border Fence with Jordan 

Israel has launched construction of a new 500km security barrier along its eastern border with Jordan, a multibillion-shekel project aimed at reshaping the country’s long-term defense posture. The Defense Ministry confirmed that work has begun on the first two segments—about 80km in valley areas—under the direction of Defense Minister Israel Katz, the Engineering and Construction Division, the Borders and Seams Directorate, and the IDF Central Command. When completed, the barrier will stretch from the southern Golan Heights to the Samar Sands near Eilat, forming a multilayered defense system combining a physical fence with surveillance radars, sensors, cameras, and advanced IT infrastructure. Katz said the border fortification will curb arms smuggling into Judea and Samaria, reinforce Israeli settlement along the frontier, and counter what he described as Iran’s attempt to build an “eastern front” against Israel. He also announced the establishment of new Nahal sites to deepen Israeli control of the region. Defense officials, including Maj. Gen. (res.) Amir Baram, emphasized that securing Israel’s longest border requires not only military deployment but a broader strategy involving transportation, agriculture, employment, water, and health infrastructure. An initial 50 million shekels has been approved for the 2026 budget, with additional construction zones set to open in the coming months as the project accelerates. 

Israel Escalates Attacks in Gaza Amid Ceasefire Violations and Humanitarian Shortages 

Despite a ceasefire agreement that took effect on October 10 under US President Donald Trump’s plan, the Israeli army has carried out a fresh wave of airstrikes, artillery shelling, and demolition operations across northern and southern Gaza, violating the fragile truce. Witnesses reported intense airstrikes in western Rafah, artillery fire in eastern areas, and gunboat attacks toward Khan Younis, sparking panic among displaced residents. In northern Gaza, Israeli forces targeted Shujaiya neighborhood amid heavy drone surveillance. According to the Gaza Government Media Office, Israel committed 738 ceasefire violations over 60 days, including shelling civilians, demolishing homes, and conducting raids with military vehicles, resulting in 386 deaths, 980 injuries, and 43 unlawful arrests. Humanitarian conditions remain dire, with only 226 aid trucks and five fuel trucks entering Gaza daily, far below the minimum 600 and 50 trucks stipulated under the agreement, disrupting hospitals, bakeries, water, and sewage services. The media office called on Trump and other ceasefire mediators to enforce Israel’s obligations and prevent further humanitarian deterioration, highlighting the ongoing suffering of Gaza’s population after more than 70,000 deaths and 171,000 injuries since October 2023. 

Israel Insists Hamas Will Be Disarmed as Truce Talks Progress Under U.S. Plan 

Israel reaffirmed Thursday that Hamas will be disarmed under the U.S.-sponsored Gaza peace plan, even as the Palestinian militant group signals willingness only to freeze its weapons rather than surrender them entirely. The fragile ceasefire, in effect since October 10 following Hamas’s October 7 attack, remains tense with frequent mutual accusations of violations. Top Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal told Al Jazeera that total disarmament is unacceptable, proposing instead storage or a weapons freeze to prevent escalation, and expressed openness to the deployment of international forces along Gaza’s border—but not within the territory, which he characterized as occupation. Israeli officials, however, insist the 20-point U.S. framework envisions full demilitarization of Gaza and the elimination of Hamas’s military capability, with the second phase involving further Israeli troop withdrawals and replacement by an international stabilization force. Under the first phase, most Palestinian hostages have been released and Israel freed nearly 2,000 prisoners while returning hundreds of bodies. Mediators, including Arab and Islamic nations, are expected to serve as “guarantors” to maintain the truce. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on December 29 to finalize the next steps, highlighting the delicate negotiation between enforcing disarmament and accommodating Hamas’s limited concessions. 

RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT 

Russia Claims Capture of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk, Pressuring Ukraine Amid Negotiations 

Russia announced Monday that its forces had seized the strategic cities of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine and Vovchansk in the northeast, escalating pressure on Kyiv during contentious U.S.-led negotiations aimed at ending the war. Pokrovsk—a major road and rail logistics hub in Donetsk that once held 60,000 residents—has endured months of heavy assault, prompting Ukraine to deploy reinforcements, including special forces, in hopes of halting Russia’s advance. Despite these efforts, Russian troops reportedly infiltrated the city in large numbers, and Moscow released footage claiming to show its flag raised over Pokrovsk’s central square. The Kremlin said military chief Valery Gerasimov informed President Vladimir Putin of the “liberation” of Pokrovsk—referred to by its Soviet-era name, Krasnoarmeysk—and Vovchansk, a Kharkiv region city devastated since fierce fighting erupted in May 2024. If confirmed, the fall of Pokrovsk would threaten Ukrainian supply lines, increase the risk of encirclement for a nearby garrison, and provide Russia with a stronger position to push further north and west. Russia’s defense minister hailed the gains as an “important step toward victory,” and AFP’s review of ISW data shows Moscow achieved its most significant territorial advance since November 2024. 

Explosion Hits Key Druzhba Oil Pipeline Amid U.S. Envoys’ Moscow Visit 

Amid high-profile U.S. diplomatic efforts in Moscow, including Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s attempts to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, a major explosion struck the Druzhba oil pipeline, one of Europe’s largest energy conduits, transporting 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude daily through Belarus and Ukraine. Kyiv Post reported Wednesday that Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) confirmed the blast occurred near Kazynskiye Vyselki along the Taganrog-Lipetsk segment, triggered by a remotely detonated device enhanced with incendiary compounds to intensify the fire. The attack follows a series of targeted strikes on Russia-linked oil tankers and land-based crude-processing facilities, marking a sharp escalation in Ukraine’s campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. October saw a record number of such operations, reflecting Kyiv’s strategic push to disrupt Moscow’s energy exports. Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized these strikes as “acts of piracy” during talks with Witkoff and Kushner, underscoring the geopolitical tension surrounding energy security. The timing of the pipeline explosion, coinciding with U.S. envoys’ high-level meetings in Moscow, highlights the ongoing intensity of the Ukraine conflict and the critical role of energy infrastructure in both military strategy and international negotiations. 

Ukrainian Sea Drones Hit Another Russia-Linked Tanker as Maritime War Expands 

The Turkish-owned, Panama-flagged tanker M/T Mersin is sinking off Senegal after reportedly being struck overnight by multiple Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels, marking the third Ukraine-attributed attack on a Russia-connected ship in a week and highlighting the widening maritime spillover of the war. The incident follows Ukraine’s Nov. 28 Sea Baby drone strikes on the Kairos and Virat off Turkey’s Black Sea coast—attacks that disabled both sanctioned tankers carrying nearly $70 million in oil and significantly expanded Kyiv’s operational reach to 28–35 nautical miles off Kocaeli province. The Kairos ignited, prompting evacuation of its crew, while the Virat remained afloat despite stern damage aimed at crippling propulsion. Both vessels appear in OpenSanctions for sanctions-evasion schemes, and Bloomberg reported the Kairos had just delivered Urals crude to India. Ukraine’s upgraded Sea Baby system—with a 1,500-km range, two-ton payload, and AI targeting—has become central to its naval campaign, which also struck the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Novorossiysk, halting operations for the third time in months. These coordinated attacks on tankers and export hubs underscore Kyiv’s strategy to squeeze Russia’s energy revenues, which the IEA and Reuters say are already falling sharply amid weaker crude prices and currency pressures. 

Russia Launches Massive Drone and Missile Strike on Ukrainian Energy and Transport Infrastructure 

A large-scale Russian drone and missile assault damaged power facilities across eight Ukrainian regions on Saturday, causing widespread blackouts and prompting nuclear plants to reduce output, according to Ukrainian officials and the IAEA. Russia reportedly deployed 653 drones and 51 missiles, of which Ukrainian forces intercepted 585 drones and 30 missiles. The attacks hit power and heat generation facilities in Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, and Dnipropetrovsk, while leaving 9,500 customers without heat and 34,000 without water in Odesa. Port facilities there switched to backup generators, and emergency repairs are underway. Among the targets was a railway hub near Kyiv, damaging depots and railcars, prompting cancellations of suburban trains near Kyiv and Chernihiv, though no casualties were reported. Russian authorities stated the strikes targeted military-industrial enterprises, energy facilities supporting operations, and port infrastructure, employing long-range precision weapons including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and drones. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha condemned the attack on civilian infrastructure, urging stronger international support. The strikes coincided with no breakthroughs in U.S.-brokered peace talks, and nearby Poland activated air raid sirens and scrambled jets, though its airspace was not violated, reflecting heightened regional tension as the war nears its fourth anniversary. 

Russia Downs Record Number of Ukrainian Drones as Both Sides Brace for Intensifying Winter Campaign 

Russia reported shooting down 287 Ukrainian drones overnight—one of the conflict’s highest single-night tallies—with 32 of them directed toward Moscow, prompting temporary closures of all four of the capital’s airports and flight diversions to St. Petersburg. The barrage underscored escalating cross-border strikes as Ukraine simultaneously faced renewed Russian attacks on energy infrastructure; officials in Poltava confirmed overnight strikes that triggered fires at local facilities. Ukraine’s energy sector is under mounting strain, with Naftogaz CEO Sergiy Koretsky warning that this winter may be the country’s most difficult since the 2022 invasion, citing both the scale and earlier timing of Russia’s strikes. AFP analysis shows Russia has recently launched record numbers of drones and missiles, intensifying pressure on Ukraine’s air defenses and critical infrastructure. Against this backdrop, Kyiv and its Western partners are pursuing diplomatic avenues to end what has become Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II; Ukrainian officials said an updated peace proposal was delivered to Washington on Wednesday. The surge in drone warfare and infrastructure attacks highlights the likelihood of further escalation as winter sets in and both sides attempt to shape battlefield and political conditions heading into 2025. 

Ukraine Targets Another Russian “Shadow Fleet” Tanker in Expanding Black Sea Drone Campaign 

Ukraine’s naval drones struck a Russian-linked tanker in the Black Sea, escalating Kyiv’s campaign against what it calls Moscow’s sanctions-busting “shadow fleet,” a Ukrainian military intelligence source said Wednesday. The Dashan tanker, sailing under the Comoros flag, reportedly sustained critical damage in the attack, marking the latest in a series of strikes after two Russian-affiliated oil tankers were hit off Turkey’s Black Sea coast last month. Those incidents prompted Ankara to summon both Russian and Ukrainian envoys, warning that drone attacks near its waters represent a dangerous escalation threatening regional maritime security. Ukraine argues the targeted vessels are integral to Russia’s covert oil transport network designed to evade international sanctions, while Russia continues to rely heavily on Black Sea routes for energy exports. Turkey, which maintains a delicate diplomatic balance between Kyiv and Moscow, controls the strategic Bosphorus Strait—an essential corridor for Ukrainian grain and Russian oil shipments to the Mediterranean—heightening its sensitivity to any expansion of the conflict into its maritime domain. Kyiv’s latest strike underscores its effort to degrade Russian logistics and economic resilience at sea as the war approaches its fourth year and both sides intensify operations across multiple domains. 

Ukraine Military Aid Falls Sharply in Second Half of 2025 Amid Slowing European Support 

Military aid to Ukraine dropped significantly in the latter half of 2025 as European contributions fell short of offsetting the halt in U.S. support, according to data from the Kiel Institute. While Europe pledged nearly €20 billion ($23 billion) in the first half of the year after U.S. aid was scaled back, only €8 billion ($9.3 billion) was delivered between July and October, marking the second-lowest four-month period of support since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Overall, Ukraine received €32.5 billion ($37.8 billion) in the first ten months, requiring an additional €9.1 billion ($10.5 billion) by year-end to maintain the 2022–2024 average of €41.6 billion ($48.3 billion). Professor Christoph Trebesch, head of Kiel’s Ukraine Support Tracker, warned that if aid momentum does not pick up, 2025 could record the lowest level of allocations since the full-scale war began. The U.S., historically providing roughly half of annual aid, averaged $24.8 billion, highlighting the challenge for European nations to fill the gap. France, Germany, and the UK increased support this year, while the EU proposed a €90 billion ($104.6 billion) funding plan using frozen Russian assets—though Belgium has opposed the measure due to potential legal complications—underscoring the political and financial hurdles in sustaining Ukraine’s military and reconstruction needs.  

INDO-PACIFIC 

Japan–China Tensions Rise as Coast Guard Vessels Face Off Near Disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands 

Japan and China faced a renewed maritime standoff on Tuesday as both nations’ coast guards reported confrontations around the disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, escalating tensions already heightened by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent suggestion that Japan could intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan. According to Japan’s coast guard, two Chinese patrol ships entered Japanese territorial waters early Tuesday, approached a Japanese fishing boat, and left hours later after receiving demands to withdraw. Japan condemned the intrusion as a violation of international law, noting that multiple Chinese vessels remained in the area. China countered by accusing the Japanese fishing boat of illegally entering Chinese waters and said its coast guard took “necessary control measures” to drive it away, vowing continued enforcement around the islands. The incident mirrors a similar confrontation earlier in November, coming shortly after Takaichi’s remarks, which Beijing sharply criticized. The broader political climate has deteriorated, with China pressuring citizens to avoid Japan, canceling cultural events such as a Japanese singer’s Shanghai performance, and sustaining restrictions like its ban on Japanese seafood imports, though it has refrained from heavier economic retaliation such as limiting rare earth exports. 

Japan, China Trade Protests After Radar-Lock Incident Near Okinawa 

Japan and China issued formal protests after Tokyo accused Chinese J-15 fighter jets from the aircraft carrier Liaoning of twice locking fire-control radar onto Japanese F-15s southeast of Okinawa, a move Japan called one of the most threatening actions short of an attack. Japan’s defense ministry said the incidents occurred Saturday afternoon and evening, prompting air-defense scrambles as Japan tracked roughly 100 Chinese jet takeoffs during broader carrier-group maneuvers involving three missile destroyers. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi denounced the radar locks as dangerously excessive, while Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi vowed a calm but firm response and summoned China’s ambassador. Beijing rejected the claims, accusing Japanese aircraft of repeatedly intruding into declared Chinese training zones east of the Miyako Strait and of “maliciously harassing” the Liaoning group, with PLA Navy and defense ministry spokesmen accusing Japan of fabricating the incident to stir regional tension. The confrontation comes amid rising friction after Takaichi signaled Japan could become involved if a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatened Japanese security, drawing sharp Chinese criticism. With U.S. forces heavily concentrated in Okinawa and Washington emphasizing deterrence in a new strategy document, the radar dispute marks the most serious Sino-Japanese air encounter in years, echoing earlier clashes in 2013 and 2016 amid China’s broader military assertiveness across East Asian waters.

Chinese Carrier Group Conducts Intense Drills Near Okinawa, Japan Protests 

A Chinese carrier strike group, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier, carried out intensive air operations east of Okinawa over the weekend, prompting Japan to lodge formal protests. Japan reported that carrier-based aircraft directed radar beams at Japanese jets scrambled to monitor the group, a signal indicating a potential attack that forces evasive maneuvers. Around 100 takeoffs and landings were recorded during the drills, which Japan described as “dangerous” and “regrettable.” Tokyo summoned Chinese Ambassador Wu Jianghao, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stating Japan would respond calmly but firmly while continuing to monitor Chinese movements. Beijing denied the claims, accusing Japanese jets of endangering flight safety and demanding Japan “stop smearing and slandering” while restraining frontline actions. The incident represents the most serious military encounter between the two nations in years, intensifying tensions in the region, particularly amid Tokyo’s warnings that it could act if China threatens Taiwan in a way that compromises Japanese security. Analysts note the drills underscore China’s growing naval operational reach and the risks of miscalculation in East Asian waters.

China Conducts Largest Naval Buildup Yet Across East Asian Waters 

China is deploying an unprecedented number of naval and coast guard vessels across key East Asian waterways, including the Yellow Sea, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, Western Pacific, Philippine Sea, and near the disputed Senkaku Islands, according to satellite imagery cited by international media. Analysts say the scale of this operation surpasses last December’s deployment, which had prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level, making it potentially China’s largest maritime buildup to date. Taiwan’s presidential spokesman, Karen Kuo, warned the buildup poses a threat to the Indo-Pacific region, urging Beijing to exercise restraint and fulfill its responsibilities as a major power. Experts note that China’s expanding multi-purpose naval hubs, capable of hosting submarines, aircraft carriers, and surface fleets, support long-range operations and reflect Beijing’s long-term goal of achieving first-class maritime power status by 2050. Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi expressed deep concern over the escalation, emphasizing that China’s growing military presence in surrounding waters raises regional security risks. The deployment signals Beijing’s increasing naval ambitions and its intent to assert both regional dominance and global operational reach.

U.S. Commission Warns Taiwan War Could Trigger Global Economic Shock 

A congressional commission is warning that a conflict over Taiwan could be “cataclysmic,” potentially wiping out up to 10% of global GDP and plunging the world into an economic crisis comparable to—or worse than—the 2008 financial crash. Taiwan’s pivotal role in global trade and technology makes the stakes unusually high: it is a top U.S. trading partner, sits astride critical shipping lanes, and dominates semiconductor production with over 60% of global foundry capacity and more than 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. The report argues that any Chinese attempt to seize the island—amid intensifying PLA air and naval pressure—could spark not only economic turmoil but also carry a serious risk of nuclear escalation. It notes Taiwan has expanded defense spending, buying U.S. systems such as F-16Vs and HIMARS, but warns China’s military buildup now enables near-instantaneous blockade or invasion options. While Washington is legally committed to helping Taiwan defend itself, its “strategic ambiguity” leaves open whether U.S. forces would directly fight China. The commission urged Congress to assess whether the Pentagon can meet its Taiwan obligations, especially if simultaneous crises erupt with Russia, Iran, or North Korea. 

Taiwan Says Chinese Jets Simulated Attacks on Foreign Ships in Strait 

Taiwan’s intelligence chief warned that Chinese military aircraft have conducted “simulated attacks” on foreign warships transiting the Taiwan Strait, intensifying concerns over Beijing’s growing assertiveness in one of the world’s most sensitive waterways. National Security Bureau director-general Tsai Ming-yen told lawmakers that China shadows every foreign vessel passing through the strait—claimed by Beijing but considered international waters by the United States, Britain, and other nations—and deploys naval forces and aircraft to monitor or intimidate them. Eight countries, including the U.S., Japan, Australia, and France, have sent ships through the area this year, prompting China to use these encounters to showcase military dominance as tensions continue to rise. Tsai said Taiwan shares intelligence with its international partners, highlighting increasing cooperation amid Beijing’s pressure campaign, which includes regular large-scale military exercises. In response, Taiwan is strengthening its defenses: President Lai Ching-te recently announced a plan to invest $40 billion over eight years in a multilayered air-defense system aimed at countering China’s expanding military capabilities. 

Thai–Cambodian Border Erupts Again as Air Strikes, Shelling Leave Civilians Dead 

Fresh fighting exploded along the Thai-Cambodian border Monday as Thailand launched air strikes and both governments traded accusations over a renewed flare-up in their century-old territorial dispute. Thai officials said one soldier was killed and 18 wounded after clashes reignited Sunday, prompting the use of air power against what Bangkok called Cambodian military targets. Cambodia reported a far heavier toll, saying Thai shelling in Preah Vihear and Oddar Meanchey killed at least four civilians and wounded around ten others, including a journalist. More than 35,000 Thais and over a thousand Cambodian families have fled the area, with residents describing tanks entering villages and repeated evacuations after a major summer conflict displaced nearly 300,000 people before a U.S.- and ASEAN-backed ceasefire. Tensions escalated last month after Thailand suspended a follow-on agreement endorsed by President Donald Trump to maintain the truce, citing a landmine blast that injured its troops. The EU and UN urged immediate restraint, while the U.S. warned travelers to stay 50 kilometers from the border. Both sides accuse each other of violating the fragile ceasefire—Thailand claiming Cambodian BM-21 rocket fire near civilian areas, and Cambodia alleging Thai F-16 strikes and tank assaults near contested temples—as leaders in Bangkok and Phnom Penh harden their rhetoric, raising fears of another prolonged cycle of confrontation. 

Border Clashes Force Over 500,000 Civilians to Flee in Thailand and Cambodia 

More than 500,000 people have been displaced across Thailand and Cambodia following a resurgence of deadly border fighting, officials said Wednesday, surpassing earlier evacuations during similar clashes in July 2025. Thai authorities reported over 400,000 civilians moved to shelters across seven provinces, citing imminent threats to safety and a desire to avoid repeating the civilian attacks seen last summer. In Cambodia, more than 101,000 people were relocated to safe shelters or relatives’ homes across five provinces. The fighting stems from longstanding disputes over the 800-kilometre colonial-era frontier and competing claims to historic temples, escalating into armed conflict that has intensified this week. The current violence is the deadliest since the five-day clashes in July, which left dozens dead and displaced roughly 300,000 people before a fragile truce brokered with U.S. intervention. Both Thailand and Cambodia accuse each other of provoking the renewed hostilities, which have now spread to five provinces on each side, highlighting the persistent fragility of peace along the shared border and the ongoing humanitarian crisis affecting hundreds of thousands of civilians.

GEOPOLITICS 

Trump Warns Israel Against Destabilizing Syria Amid Push for Regional Peace Accord 

President Donald Trump on Monday urged Israel to avoid actions that could destabilize Syria’s new leadership, issuing the warning just days after an Israeli operation in Beit Jin killed 13 people. In a Truth Social post, Trump emphasized the need for “strong and true dialogue” between Israel and Syria to support the country’s transition under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose Islamist-led coalition ousted Bashar al-Assad a year ago. Trump has been aggressively promoting a security pact between the two nations as part of a broader strategy to expand regional peace following October’s fragile Gaza ceasefire. But Israeli strikes—numbering in the hundreds—have strained that effort, with Damascus calling the latest raid a “war crime,” though Israel said it targeted Lebanon-based Jamaa Islamiya fighters allied with Hamas. After speaking with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump invited him for another White House meeting, praising Sharaa’s efforts and pledging continued U.S. support to help Syria rebuild and integrate into regional stability frameworks. Netanyahu’s office said the two leaders discussed expanding peace agreements, demilitarizing Gaza, and disarming Hamas, even as Israel maintains its right to strike militant groups across the region. Tensions also rose after Netanyahu visited troops in the long-established Golan Heights buffer zone, drawing condemnation from Damascus. 

Zelensky Rejects Territorial Concessions as U.S.-Backed Negotiations Hit Stalemate 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared Monday that Kyiv cannot—and will not—cede any territory to Russia as part of efforts to end Moscow’s nearly four-year invasion, insisting such concessions are prohibited by Ukrainian law, violate international norms, and would be morally indefensible. Speaking at an online press conference, Zelensky said Washington is searching for a compromise, but the Kremlin remains fixated on territorial gains that Ukraine refuses to consider, making land issues the most difficult element of ongoing negotiations, according to a senior official involved in the talks. He added that Kyiv is also struggling to secure firm commitments from Western partners regarding future security guarantees, underscoring that Ukraine has yet to receive clarity on what the U.S. and allies would do in the event of another Russian attack. After meetings in London, Zelensky traveled to Brussels for consultations with NATO and EU leaders and said he would continue on to Italy overnight as part of a rapid diplomatic push. He noted that Ukrainian and European officials are reviewing a 20-point U.S. proposal and aim to send counterarguments to Washington by Tuesday evening, signaling that the negotiation process remains active but deeply constrained by unresolved questions over sovereignty and long-term security. 

Trump Urges Ukraine to Hold Elections, Questions Democratic Credibility 

President Donald Trump has called on Ukraine to hold elections, challenging President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to delay voting under martial law, in an interview with Politico. Zelensky’s term expired in May 2024, but he has refused to organize presidential elections, citing ongoing martial law imposed after the February 2022 escalation of the conflict with Russia, which Ukrainian parliament has repeatedly extended. Trump argued that the war should no longer be used as a justification to postpone voting, stating, “They haven’t had an election in a long time… it gets to a point where it’s not a democracy anymore.” He emphasized that it is “an important time to hold an election” and that Ukrainians “should have that choice,” signaling a direct challenge to Zelensky’s current administration. The remarks reflect Trump’s continued engagement with Ukraine policy, framing the issue as one of democratic legitimacy amid a protracted conflict. While the Ukrainian government maintains that martial law necessitates postponement for security reasons, Trump’s comments put additional international spotlight on the question of governance and electoral processes in a nation still facing the pressures of war. 

Zelenskyy Prepares Ukrainian Peace Proposals Amid U.S. Pressure and Aid Shortfalls 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that Kyiv is submitting updated peace proposals to U.S. negotiators, while expressing readiness to hold national elections within 60–90 days if security can be guaranteed during wartime and electoral laws are adapted. Zelenskyy emphasized two main conditions for balloting: ensuring voter and military safety amid ongoing Russian strikes and creating a legislative framework to legitimize elections under martial law. The initiative comes after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Zelenskyy for allegedly using the war as an excuse to delay voting, aligning with Moscow’s narrative questioning the Ukrainian leader’s mandate. Zelenskyy has engaged European allies—Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and EU/NATO leadership—to balance pressure from Washington and counter Russian leverage, working on three key documents covering a 20-point peace framework, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s reconstruction. Meanwhile, military aid from Western partners has declined sharply following U.S. cuts unless European states covered costs, with 2025 allocations reaching €32.5 billion ($37.8 billion) against an annual average of €41.6 billion ($48.4 billion) from 2022–2024. Despite contributions rising from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Germany, France, and the U.K., countries like Spain and Italy have reduced or stagnated their support, creating concern over Ukraine’s ability to sustain defense while pursuing peace talks. 


Russia Offers Written Security Guarantees to NATO and EU, Urges Collective Approach 

Russia reiterated on Thursday that it has no “aggressive plans” against NATO or EU members and expressed readiness to formalize these assurances in a legally binding document. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that any guarantees would be reciprocal and part of a collective framework, emphasizing that security discussions should extend beyond Ukraine. Speaking at a Moscow roundtable with diplomats and international representatives, Lavrov highlighted that recent talks between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff resolved misunderstandings stemming from the Alaska summit in August, and that Russia had conveyed additional proposals on collective security guarantees. He accused Western nations of attempting to leverage the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict to distract from other global issues, including the situation in Palestine, and stressed that Russia seeks agreements that prevent successive crises. Lavrov’s remarks signal Moscow’s willingness to engage in formalized, multilateral security negotiations while framing the dialogue as part of broader geopolitical concerns beyond Eastern Europe.

Japan Seeks Stronger U.S. Backing Amid Rising Tensions with China 

Japan is reportedly pressing the United States to more actively support Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi following her comments last month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger Japanese military intervention in support of pro-independence forces. Despite U.S. Ambassador George Glass publicly stating that the Trump administration “has her back,” Japanese officials say Washington’s backing has been insufficient, especially as China responds with economic, cultural, and maritime measures. Takaichi’s remarks have led to Chinese punitive actions including travel advisories, suspension of cultural exchanges, and military posturing. Following a weekend incident in southern waters off Japan where Chinese J-15 jets reportedly targeted Japanese fighters with fire-control radar, Japan summoned China’s ambassador and condemned the actions as “dangerous and deeply regrettable.” Beijing, in turn, accused Japan of endangering flight safety during PLA Navy exercises. Japanese Ambassador Shigeo Yamada has formally requested stronger public U.S. support, but Trump has reportedly counseled Tokyo to avoid provocations after his call with President Xi Jinping. The ongoing friction underscores the delicate balance Washington and Tokyo face in managing regional security, economic ties, and the risk of escalation over Taiwan’s sovereignty. 

  

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