Mid-May Sitrep Support

Mid-May Sitrep Support

MID-MAY SITREP BI_WEEKLY UPDATE 

LEAD STORIES 

After Rapid Drainage by Biden Regime for Political Gain, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Left Damaged 

Since his Senate confirmation, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright has prioritized restoring the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a key element of the Trump Administration’s push for energy dominance. The SPR, which can hold 714 million barrels, now contains fewer than 400 million—its lowest level since the 1980s—after the Biden Administration’s 2022 decision to release millions of barrels to ease inflation-driven gas prices. Wright revealed in a CNBC interview that rebuilding the SPR will likely consume his entire tenure, as two of the reserve’s four storage sites were also damaged during the previous administration. The process isn’t just about buying oil; it also requires congressional approval for the funding necessary to repair infrastructure and purchase replacement reserves. Critics argue the Biden administration’s SPR drawdowns were politically motivated and left the nation more vulnerable, with Wright now facing a long-term logistical and legislative challenge. The effort underscores broader Republican claims that Biden’s energy policies were mismanaged, and that the damage—both physical and strategic—will take years to reverse under current leadership.

UK Powergrid Failures Hours Before Spain, Portugal Blackout Still Unexplained 

The United Kingdom’s electricity grid experienced unusual disruptions just hours before a massive blackout struck Spain and Portugal, prompting an investigation by the National Grid ESO into unexpected frequency shifts on Sunday. While the U.K. did not suffer major outages, unexplained plant shutdowns caused abnormal grid variations, raising concerns about systemic vulnerabilities as grids rely more on renewable sources. Hours later, Spain and Portugal faced one of their worst blackouts, affecting millions, shutting down trains, airports, and communications across cities like Barcelona, Seville, and Valencia. Around 30,000 Spanish security officers were deployed as the blackout persisted into the evening. Spanish operator Red Eléctrica is investigating whether the failure stemmed from transmission issues with France. The EU pledged support, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen coordinating monitoring efforts. Madrid’s mayor urged residents to stay put to ease emergency responses. Authorities across Europe vowed a full investigation and will meet with grid operators this week to develop preventive measures. The U.K.’s National Grid ESO expects to release preliminary findings within days.  

What Really Happened to Cause the Spain and Portugal Blackout? 

Shortly after 11:30 a.m. on April 28th, a massive blackout swept across Spain and Portugal, disrupting homes, traffic systems, and workplaces in cities like Madrid, Barcelona, and Lisbon. Spain’s grid operator REE confirmed a failure dubbed “el cero,” while Portugal’s REN attributed it to a rare atmospheric event—sudden temperature swings triggered “induced atmospheric vibration,” violently shaking high-voltage power lines and destabilizing the 400kV network. The resulting frequency drop below the standard 50 hertz led to cascading disconnections, including in France. Engineers spent hours gradually restoring power. Despite rampant speculation online, officials, including António Costa, dismissed cyber-attack fears, though Portugal’s PM Luís Montenegro cautioned against ruling anything out. The incident highlighted vulnerabilities in grids increasingly reliant on renewables; over half of Spain’s electricity now comes from wind and solar. Experts warned that maintaining grid stability requires fast-response systems like flywheels and smart controls. The blackout also reignited debate over Europe’s interconnected grids—while they help crises spread, they also provide vital support. Ultimately, the outage underscored a key challenge: building green is essential, but grid resilience is just as critical. 

Rogue Communication Devices Found in Chinese Solar Panel Inverters by US Engineers  

U.S. engineers have discovered undocumented “rogue” communication devices embedded in some Chinese-made solar inverters and batteries, raising serious cybersecurity concerns, Reuters reported. These hidden components could bypass firewalls, potentially allowing remote access to U.S. power grids, posing risks ranging from espionage to sabotage. Used to link solar and wind systems to grids, these internet-connected devices are meant for monitoring and updates, but experts warn their covert channels could enable attacks on critical infrastructure. Although the U.S. government has not officially acknowledged the threat, IT teams at energy sites routinely inspect Chinese equipment and often find suspicious hardware. In one 2024 incident, users of Deye-manufactured inverters reported simultaneous system failures, suspected by some to have resulted from a remote kill command—though the company blamed unauthorized sales and missed updates. Lawmakers including Reps. Carlos Gimenez and Sens. Rick Scott and Maggie Hassan have introduced legislation to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese power equipment, citing national security risks. Similar concerns prompted Lithuania to ban Chinese firms from remotely accessing power systems. Chinese companies still dominate global inverter supply, led by Huawei. 

Manufacturing Sector in China Takes Nosedive Under Trump’s Tariff 

China’s manufacturing sector has taken its steepest downturn since the COVID lockdown, with April's Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipping below 50—signaling contraction—and export orders dropping to their lowest since December 2022, according to data reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The sharp slowdown has led major financial institutions like UBS and Goldman Sachs to revise down China’s economic growth forecasts. Economists, including Morgan Stanley’s Robin Xing, attribute the worsening conditions to former President Trump’s escalating trade crackdown, which began with a 10% tariff in February and has since risen to 145% on Chinese goods, without offering Beijing the tariff pause extended to other nations. In retaliation, China has imposed 125% tariffs on U.S. products. Trump’s aggressive stance, now in his second term, appears to be impacting China’s job market, with up to 16 million jobs at risk per Goldman Sachs. Amid declining cargo shipments and economic strain, Chinese President Xi Jinping remains defiant, declaring China will “never kneel” to Washington, even as trade tensions deepen and economic pressures mount. 

Trump to Rebuild and Reopen Alcatraz to Circumvent Activist Judges 

On Sunday evening, former President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that he had directed his administration to rebuild and reopen Alcatraz prison to detain violent criminal illegal aliens, particularly if courts continue blocking deportation efforts. Calling for a return to tougher law enforcement, Trump described America as plagued by "vicious, violent, and repeat Criminal Offenders" and vowed to isolate them in a "substantially enlarged" version of the historic island prison off San Francisco. He criticized judges for hindering immigration enforcement and declared Alcatraz would symbolize law, order, and justice. Originally established as a military facility in 1858, Alcatraz became a federal penitentiary in 1934, housing notorious criminals like Al Capone and “Machine Gun” Kelly until its closure in 1963 by President John F. Kennedy due to high costs. During its 29-year federal operation, 34 inmates attempted escape; none succeeded permanently. Trump’s post included historical references and a vintage photo of “The Rock,” signaling a symbolic return to harsh incarceration for the most dangerous offenders as part of his "Make America Great Again" agenda. 

June 14th Slated for US Military Parade, Coincides with Trump’s Birthday 

The United States will hold a large military parade on June 14 to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army’s founding, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday. According to the White House and Army officials, the event will feature 150 vehicles, 50 aircraft, 6,600 soldiers, fireworks, and a festival on the National Mall. Trump, who had previously proposed a parade during his first term after attending France’s Bastille Day parade, now sees the event as a way to honor military strength and restore patriotic celebrations. Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser expressed concern over potential road damage from tanks. The last major military parade in D.C. was in 1991 after the Gulf War. The parade announcement followed Trump’s declaration of May 8 as Victory Day for World War II and the renaming of Veterans Day to Victory Day for World War I, downplaying Europe’s role in those conflicts. Amid these moves, Trump has also reshaped military leadership, dismissing several top officers, raising concerns from Democrats about increased politicization of the military under his administration. 

Greenland Targeted by US Intel Agencies as takeover Plot Gains Momentum 

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly been ordered to intensify surveillance of Greenland, Denmark, and their internal politics as part of President Trump’s push to acquire Greenland, marking an unprecedented intelligence focus on allied nations. According to The Wall Street Journal, the directive came via a “collection emphasis message,” instructing agencies to assess Greenland’s independence movement, local sentiment toward U.S. resource extraction, and identify potential supporters of an American takeover in both Greenland and Denmark. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard condemned the leak of this classified directive, while the National Security Council emphasized concerns over Arctic security. Trump has not ruled out military action, calling Greenland vital for U.S. security due to its rare earth deposits and strategic location, including the Pituffik Air Base, a key missile and space command site. Vice President JD Vance echoed Trump’s stance, criticizing Denmark’s stewardship of the island. With just 56,000 residents and vast, ice-covered territory, Greenland would be the largest land acquisition in U.S. history if annexed, surpassing the Louisiana Purchase in both scale and geopolitical impact.

Last of the Pre-Tariff Ships from China Arrive in US Ports, Will Shortages Follow? 

U.S. tariffs on most Chinese goods, currently at 145%, have not been applied to cargo already en route, but that is about to change as the last tariff-free shipments from China arrive. The tariffs have already caused significant disruption in China, with many companies canceling orders and businesses adopting a “wait and see” approach. The media warns of potential shortages, comparing the situation to the pandemic, but the reality is more complex. Since 2018, U.S. dependence on Chinese imports has sharply decreased from 21% to 13%, and only 7% of U.S. exports go to China. China, facing a deflationary crisis, is much more vulnerable than the U.S., especially since the U.S. accounts for 30% of global consumer demand. However, the U.S. does face risks, such as shortages of over-the-counter drugs, electronics, and textiles, which are heavily sourced from China. Small businesses relying on Chinese goods for packaging materials may also face price hikes. Despite these concerns, U.S. manufacturing is not ready to fill the gaps left by China, but China’s own economic troubles are likely to worsen before they improve. 

Dollar Rebounds on News that US and China Reach Deal to Slash Tariffs 

The United States and China have reached a temporary agreement to reduce reciprocal tariffs, pausing trade war measures for 90 days. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that tariffs would be cut by over 100 percentage points to a 10% baseline rate. This deal marks a significant shift in the ongoing trade dispute, which had raised fears of a global recession and financial instability. Following the Geneva talks, both sides expressed optimism about narrowing trade differences, with Bessent highlighting the importance of avoiding a "decoupling" of the two economies. The tariff dispute, which had disrupted nearly $600 billion in trade and strained supply chains, saw both nations escalating duties, particularly after President Trump’s decision to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports. In response, China had implemented export curbs and retaliatory tariffs. The trade agreement, viewed as a positive step, lifted market sentiment, with Wall Street futures rising as investors felt reassured about the global economic outlook. Both sides agreed to further economic dialogue, with Trump praising the talks as a “total reset.

US and Saudi Arabia Agree to Billions in Investments and Weapons Sales 

President Donald Trump secured what the White House called the largest-ever economic pact with Saudi Arabia during his Middle East visit, including a $142 billion defense deal supplying advanced weaponry previously withheld under President Biden. The agreements, reportedly worth around $600 billion, also cover AI, energy infrastructure, healthcare, and aerospace. Trump’s visit marked a policy reset with Syria’s new Islamist government and extended an olive branch to Iran, signaling willingness to engage with previously shunned regional actors. He announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria, encouraged by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Erdogan, emphasizing pragmatism over moral judgments in foreign policy. Trump touted the deal’s U.S. job creation potential and praised American-made military equipment. The summit featured high-profile business leaders, including Elon Musk, focusing heavily on AI and Saudi Arabia’s ambitious giga-projects. Trump was welcomed with royal pomp in Riyadh, where he and Salman signed memoranda on defense, energy, and NASA cooperation. His Middle East tour continued with planned meetings in Syria, Qatar, and the UAE, underscoring a strategic pivot toward deepening U.S.-Saudi ties and regional engagement.

Qatari Government to Sign “Joint Declaration of Cooperation, Investing Billions in US 

President Donald Trump and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani signed a “joint declaration of cooperation” during Trump’s visit to Doha, marking a strengthening of U.S.-Qatar relations. The signing ceremony, shared on social media by the White House, highlighted ongoing discussions between the two leaders about global issues, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and developments with Iran. Trump praised Emir Tamim’s helpfulness in international matters and expressed optimism about resolving tensions with Iran. On the same day, Qatar Airways announced a historic $200 billion agreement to purchase 160 Boeing jets, a record deal that Trump enthusiastically supported, urging Boeing’s CEO to expedite deliveries. Trump also lauded Qatar’s remarkable national achievements, emphasizing U.S. support for the country’s continued growth. The joint declaration and accompanying business deals signify a deepening partnership between the U.S. and Qatar, underscoring strategic cooperation in defense, economic ties, and regional stability during a period of complex geopolitical challenges in the Middle East.

BORDER CRISIS 

Trump Claims Biden Gave Asylum to Almost 600 Illegals with Ties to Terrorism 

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard revealed during a cabinet meeting that nearly 600 individuals with ties to terrorist organizations entered the U.S. and were granted asylum under the Biden administration. The discovery followed Gabbard’s directive to the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) to prioritize identifying cartel and gang members entering or residing in the country, after President Trump designated groups like MS-13, Tren de Aragua, and the Sinaloa Cartel as foreign terrorist organizations. Gabbard reported that 700 alien terrorists linked to these groups had been detected recently, and that 600 more with terrorist affiliations entered the U.S. illegally, claimed asylum, and were paroled in under Biden’s border policies. Gabbard emphasized that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence is collaborating with the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI to track down these individuals. Her remarks came amid a series of Trump administration actions targeting transnational criminal networks, including the recent arrest of a Tren de Aragua leader in Los Angeles and over 100 gang-related arrests in Colorado linked to an underground nightclub. 

10th Circuit Appeals Court Rejects Trump Admin to Block Deportation Restrictions 

On April 29, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit rejected the Trump administration’s attempt to block restrictions on deporting Venezuelans from Colorado. The court ruled that the government failed to demonstrate it would face irreparable harm if a lower court’s order remained in place. The order, issued by U.S. District Judge Charlotte N. Sweeney, mandates that the Trump administration give Venezuelans arrested for alleged ties to the Tren de Aragua gang three weeks' notice before deportation. The ruling applies to all noncitizens in Colorado affected by President Trump’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act, which targeted members of the gang. The appeals court noted that deportations could not occur before May 6, 2025, due to unresolved issues under the Alien Enemies Act. Government lawyers argued that Sweeney lacked jurisdiction and that the restraining order undermined the President’s authority in handling national security matters. In contrast, the Venezuelans’ lawyers argued that the notice period violated due process rights. 

US Officials Says Flights Full of Migrants Sent to Libya 

The U.S. is preparing to deport a group of undocumented immigrants to Libya as early as this week aboard a military aircraft, according to two U.S. officials, though both the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department declined to confirm specifics. Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Unity publicly denied any agreement with the U.S. and rejected the use of Libya as a deportation destination without its consent, suggesting rogue or illegitimate actors may be involved. Khalifa Haftar’s rival Libyan National Army, which controls eastern Libya, also condemned the move, calling it a violation of national sovereignty. The deportation effort follows recent comments by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said the U.S. is seeking distant countries willing to accept deported individuals, including gang-affiliated criminals. The U.S. already has agreements with nations like El Salvador and Costa Rica—El Salvador recently accepted $6 million to imprison deportees linked to gangs such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua. Costa Rica has also cooperated, citing economic pressures from the U.S. as a factor in its participation. 

BOHICA!

$1 Trillion Defense Budget Proposed by Trump for 2026

President Donald Trump is proposing a 13% increase in defense spending for fiscal year 2026, pushing the Pentagon’s budget past $1 trillion for the first time, according to a draft budget document. The proposed $1.01 trillion total includes base defense spending and supplemental funds from a $325 billion reconciliation package, of which $150 billion is allocated for defense. The plan emphasizes countering China in the Indo-Pacific, boosting missile defense, shipbuilding, and revitalizing the defense industrial base. While Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have championed surpassing the $1 trillion threshold, some Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Roger Wicker and Sen. Mitch McConnell, argue the budget is misleading. They claim the increase relies on temporary reconciliation funds, not sustained base budget growth, and could undermine long-term military strength. The White House’s Office of Management and Budget maintains the reconciliation bill is a supplement, not a substitute, for full-year appropriations. More budget details are expected soon. The Navy and Space Force are likely to benefit most, as Congress prepares to review and modify the proposal, as required under its constitutional spending authority. 

Reconciliation Package Worth $150BN Poised to Replenish Munitions Stockpiles 

The $150 billion reconciliation package approved by the House Armed Services Committee on April 29 marks a significant investment in U.S. munitions and defense industrial capacity, with $20.4 billion allocated for munitions and supply chains and $13.5 billion for low-cost weapons. Aimed at supplementing the 2025 budget, the bill prioritizes long-range, multi-service weapons—particularly anti-ship, hypersonic, and air-to-surface missiles—and includes $1 billion to expand drone production, inspired by Ukraine’s successful use of one-way attack UAVs. The package also boosts funding for Navy and Air Force long-range anti-ship missiles like the LRASM, and air-to-air missiles such as the AIM-120 and AIM-9X. Additional spending targets counter-drone systems, missile defense support, and solid rocket motor production, with $600 million for SRM investments and $1 billion for next-gen munitions factories. Congress also allotted $3 billion to the Defense Innovation Unit for dual-use tech and $2.5 billion to strengthen rare Earth material supply via the National Defense Stockpile. Lawmakers emphasized the need to strike adversaries from beyond enemy air defense ranges and ensure resilient production capacity. 

With Supplies Running Low, Navy Looks to Expand Munitions Options 

Navy leaders are urgently seeking new types of munitions to address critical shortages exposed during recent operations in the Red Sea, Acting Chief of Naval Operations Adm. James Kilby testified before the House Appropriations Committee. He highlighted strains on the munitions industrial base, noting that current production lines for precision-guided weapons like Tomahawk missiles, Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles, and heavyweight torpedoes may not meet demand. Kilby emphasized the need to explore additional vendors who could supply effective alternatives, even if not meeting exact specifications. The concern arises amid fiscal 2026 budget reviews, where lawmakers expressed worries over gaps in shipbuilding, submarine delays, and fleet readiness. The Navy’s shortfall gained attention after more than 1,100 strikes against Houthi forces depleted roughly $1 billion in munitions over five weeks. Past reports warned of slow replenishment, with fewer than 70 Tomahawks produced in 2023, while over 125 were used in months of 2024 skirmishes. Rep. Tom Cole warned a prolonged conflict would be unsustainable without accelerated resupply. Kilby and Navy Secretary John Phelan are working to speed replacements but gave no timeline or vendor specifics, stressing the need to be prepared for a potentially costly conflict with China.

 

 WAR (and rumors of war)

US MILITARY 

1,000 Houthis Targets Struck by US Since Trump Renewed Direct Action 

Since March 15, U.S. forces have struck over 1,000 Houthi targets in Yemen under Operation Rough Rider, an intensive air campaign involving B-2 bombers, two aircraft carriers, and other assets, with support from the U.K. as of April 29. The Trump administration's expanded effort—targeting drone and missile infrastructure—has killed hundreds of fighters and senior Houthi leaders, degraded UAV and missile capabilities, and reduced Houthi attacks on shipping. CENTCOM reports a 69% drop in ballistic missile launches and a 55% decline in drone strikes, though operations remain shrouded in secrecy. The campaign has caused civilian casualties, including over 500 reported by April 22, and deadly strikes on migrants, prompting ongoing U.S. assessments. Seven MQ-9 Reapers have been lost since March, and U.S. Navy aircraft have suffered accidents during the deployment. The campaign responds to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping linked to the Gaza conflict and aims to restore maritime security and U.S. deterrence. British RAF jets joined U.S. strikes for the first time in Trump’s term, targeting drone production facilities used in regional attacks.

US Prepared to Support Ground Offensive Against Houthis by Yemeni Forces 

Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis are in discussions with the U.S. and Gulf Arab allies about a potential land offensive to remove the militant group from Yemen’s Red Sea coast. The talks come amid a U.S.-led aerial assault against the Houthis, which began in March 2025 and has yet to halt the group's attacks on vital shipping routes. A ground offensive could target Houthi-controlled areas such as the capital, Sanaa, and the strategic port of Hodeida, though it would not involve U.S. troops. The urgency stems from concerns over the Houthis' ties with al-Shabaab, a Somalia-based Al-Qaeda affiliate. The U.S. is also looking to pressure the Houthis in the context of broader efforts to curtail Iranian influence in the region. A land operation is seen as a way to build on the success of airstrikes and further degrade Houthi capabilities. Discussions continue, but no final decision has been made. Yemeni military leader Tariq Saleh is a key figure, commanding forces with support from the UAE. 

With Iranian Threat Growing, US Sends Another US Warship from Pacific 

The USS Milius, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer based in the Western Pacific, has been repositioned to the Middle East to support the U.S. military presence aimed at deterring aggression from Iran. Operating under the U.S. Seventh Fleet, the Milius is now part of the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group, reinforcing the Pentagon's force posture in the region amid tensions with Iran, particularly over nuclear negotiations and attacks on ships by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Milius, along with other warships like the USS Wayne E. Meyer, has been reassigned from the Western Pacific to the Middle East to support U.S. Central Command's operations, including countering Houthi actions in Yemen. The destroyers provide multi-mission offensive and defensive capabilities and operate either independently or as part of a strike group. The presence of the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group and other ships underscores U.S. commitment to regional stability and security. It remains uncertain whether the USS Ralph Johnson will also be redeployed to the Middle East. 

Ceasefire Between US and Houthis as Houthis Capitulate 

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the US would immediately halt bombings against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, citing their decision to stop fighting. Trump stated that the Houthis had "capitulated" and expressed their willingness to cease hostilities, particularly attacks on maritime vessels in the Red Sea. The halt in US military action came after the Houthis pledged not to target ships, which had been a central focus of US operations. Trump highlighted that the decision was based on the Houthis' word, signaling a shift in US policy. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the US involvement as a mission to protect global shipping from the Houthis' threats to freedom of navigation. Oman's Foreign Minister confirmed the cessation of hostilities, acknowledging the Sultanate's mediation between the sides. The decision, which followed Israeli airstrikes on Houthi positions, marked a significant diplomatic breakthrough but was made without prior consultation with Israel, despite the region’s ongoing tensions.

Israel Not Included in the US-Houthi Ceasefire Deal 

A ceasefire deal between Yemen's Houthis and the U.S. does not extend to Israel, the group confirmed on Wednesday, signaling that their attacks on global shipping, particularly in the Red Sea, will not fully cease. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the U.S. would stop bombing the Iran-backed Houthis after they agreed to halt attacks on U.S. vessels. The deal, mediated by Oman, focused on stopping Houthi assaults on U.S. shipping but does not guarantee an end to attacks on Israeli-linked targets. Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam emphasized that the group would cease hostilities as long as U.S. strikes ended, maintaining their position of self-defense. While there have been no reports of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea since January, the possibility of targeting vessels linked to Israel remains. Iran welcomed the cessation of U.S. aggression, thanking Oman for facilitating the deal. Rights activists have raised concerns about civilian casualties amid intensified U.S. strikes earlier this year aimed at stopping the attacks.

Houthis will Continue to Attack Israeli Ships Despite US Deal 

Yemen’s Houthi rebels will continue to target Israeli ships in the Red Sea, despite a ceasefire that ended weeks of intense U.S. strikes against the Iran-backed group. A senior Houthi official, Abdulmalik Alejri, confirmed that Israel was excluded from the ceasefire deal, which applies to American and other international vessels, but not those linked to Israel. The Houthis began attacking Israel-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in November 2023, escalating their campaign after U.S. and British military strikes began in January 2024. Alejri stated that the Houthis would now exclusively target Israeli ships, a shift from their previous strategy of attacking vessels with any connection to Israel. On the same day, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree confirmed drone strikes on Ramon Airport in southern Israel and a "vital target" in the Tel Aviv area. The ceasefire was praised by Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Nations, which urged restraint and de-escalation in the region. 

Another F/A-18 Fighter Jet from the USS Truman Lost in Red Sea After ‘Failed Arrestment’

The U.S. Navy has lost a second F/A-18 fighter jet from the USS Harry S. Truman in just over a week, after an F/A-18F Super Hornet failed to land on the carrier and plunged into the Red Sea on Tuesday night; both aviators ejected safely and sustained only minor injuries. The jet reportedly experienced a “failed arrestment,” where the tail hook missed the deck wire, causing the aircraft to roll off the flight deck. This follows an earlier incident eight days prior, when an F/A-18E Super Hornet fell overboard during towing operations inside the hangar bay. Each jet costs over $60 million, and both events are under investigation. These mishaps come amid heightened regional tensions, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels reportedly firing at the Harry S. Truman on the same day as the latest crash. Since late 2023, the Red Sea has become increasingly hazardous for U.S. naval forces. The carrier, which has experienced multiple operational problems during its current deployment, may now face scrutiny over mechanical and procedural issues contributing to recent losses. 

Defender 25 Military Exercises Underway in Europe, Includes 1000’s of US Soldiers 

Thousands of U.S. soldiers are deploying to Europe for Defender 25, a massive combat exercise spanning 18 countries from the Arctic to the Mediterranean, U.S. Army Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF) announced Monday. The annual drills, which began April 10 and will run through June, involve about 25,000 U.S. and allied troops, including 5,400 U.S.-based soldiers joining forces already stationed in Europe. General Christopher Donahue, USAREUR-AF commander, emphasized the operation’s role in global deterrence and alliance readiness, stating that the scale and complexity of these logistics and combat exercises are unmatched worldwide. Key components include five simultaneous airborne operations in May across Finland, Norway, Latvia, Lithuania, and Sweden, as well as large-scale troop movements like the 2nd Cavalry Regiment’s tactical march through central and southeastern Europe. The Defender series, launched in 2020, aims to enhance NATO interoperability and rapidly project power across the continent. Army leaders say the drill reinforces U.S. commitment to NATO, boosts deterrence capability, and simulates realistic, large-scale warfare scenarios to prepare for potential future conflicts. 

At 60K Feet, the USAF RQ-4 Global Hawk Sees All 

The RQ-4 Global Hawk, developed by Northrop Grumman for the U.S. Air Force, is an advanced unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) designed for high-altitude, long-endurance surveillance. It can fly above 60,000 feet and stay airborne for over 30 hours, providing critical intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) data. Since its introduction in the early 2000s, the Global Hawk has supported numerous military and humanitarian missions, including tracking insurgents and aiding disaster relief. Its high-tech sensors, including electro-optical/infrared cameras, synthetic aperture radar, and signals intelligence, enable it to deliver real-time data from vast areas. The RQ-4 has a wingspan of 130 feet, a cruising speed of 310 knots, and a range of up to 14,200 nautical miles. With variants like the Block 30 and Block 40, it has been crucial in operations worldwide, including Iraq, Afghanistan, and Japan. Despite its advanced capabilities, the Global Hawk is costly, with unit prices reaching up to $222.7 million, making it a significant but invaluable asset for ISR operations. 

New F-55 Fighter Jet Announced by President Trump 

During a visit to U.S. troops at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, former President Donald Trump announced plans to upgrade American fighter jets, proposing a new F-55 model as a significant evolution of the existing F-35. Trump described the F-55 as a “super upgrade” featuring twin engines—unlike the F-35’s single engine—to enhance safety, thrust, and performance at high altitudes with heavier payloads. While acknowledging the added complexity and cost of twin-engine aircraft, Trump emphasized the benefits of redundancy and power. He also hinted at reviving and modernizing the F-22, calling it “the most beautiful fighter jet in the world,” and proposed developing an “F-22 Super.” The F-35, produced by Lockheed Martin, remains central to U.S. and NATO air capabilities, with allies like Italy, the U.K., and Norway relying on its versatility. Trump’s remarks came ahead of his next stop in the United Arab Emirates, the final destination on his Middle East tour, where he praised the U.S. military's strength and loyalty, calling them “the finest we have anywhere in the world.” 

US Marine Corp F-35B Squadron Deployed to Japan 

Marine Fighter Attack Squadron VMFA-211, an F-35B Lightning II unit from Yuma, Arizona, recently deployed to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, joining three other Marine squadrons to strengthen U.S. military operations in the Indo-Pacific, according to the 1st Marine Aircraft Wing. Known as the “Wake Island Avengers,” VMFA-211 will integrate into Marine Aircraft Group 12 alongside permanently stationed F-35B squadrons VMFA-121 and VMFA-242, and another U.S.-based Unit Deployment Program squadron, VMFA-214. While specific numbers of aircraft and personnel were not disclosed, a typical F-35B squadron includes about 10 aircraft and the necessary support staff. Deployment durations typically last six months. VMFA-211 will participate in regional exercises to bolster operational readiness and support joint force missions under the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. Recent activities include VMFA-214’s involvement in the April Freedom Flag 25-1 exercise in South Korea. Marine Aircraft Group 12 also encompasses aerial refueling, aviation logistics, and wing support squadrons, collectively enhancing U.S. Marine Corps capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region.

FORTRESS EUROPE 

NATO Member Britain Joins US with Airstrikes on Houthis 

The United Kingdom joined the United States in launching precision airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, marking the first major allied military action under President Trump and reinforcing the U.S.-UK “special relationship.” Conducted as part of Operation Rough Rider, the joint strike involved RAF Typhoon FGR4s, supported by Voyager tankers, dropping Paveway IV bombs on drone production sites used in Houthi maritime attacks. The UK Defense Ministry cited the threat to Red Sea navigation since November 2023 as justification. This marked the UK’s return to Houthi-targeted operations after prior joint strikes during the Biden administration. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated it has struck over 800 targets since March, killing hundreds of Houthi fighters and key leaders. The Houthis, who claim repeated attacks on U.S. carriers, reported no damage or casualties from the latest strikes but vowed to continue targeting U.S. and allied warships. CENTCOM emphasized continued pressure to secure shipping lanes, while the UK reiterated its commitment to maritime security. The strikes follow months of Houthi missile and drone assaults linked to the Gaza conflict. 

Several Iranians Arrested in UK, were ‘Hours Away from Staging a Massacre’ 

Seven Iranians were arrested in the UK in connection with two suspected terror cells allegedly plotting imminent attacks, including one possibly targeting a synagogue, authorities said Sunday. London’s Metropolitan Police detained five men—four confirmed Iranian nationals—on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act under the UK’s Terrorism Act. Three additional Iranians were held under the National Security Act for suspected involvement in foreign power threat activity. British Home Secretary Yvette Cooper called the operations among the most significant in recent years, highlighting the ongoing complexity of Iranian-linked threats. The arrests follow warnings by MI5 head Ken McCallum, who revealed Iran-backed plots have surged since 2022, and by former MI6 chief Richard Dearlove, who cited Iranian threats to British Jews. Security Minister Dan Jarvis said Iran’s aggression reflects a broader trend of state threats blurring traditional national security lines. Recent Iranian state rhetoric has also intensified, including explicit death threats toward former U.S. President Donald Trump. Experts and lawmakers warn that Iran’s unchecked proxy activities and nuclear ambitions remain a looming global threat. 

NATO Military Exercise Along Russian Finnish Border Underway 

Russia's Izvestia newspaper reported on May 11 that NATO is conducting major military exercises near Russia’s border, named Northern Strike 125 and Northern Star 25, which involve around 7,000 personnel from NATO allies, including Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. These drills, which will last until May 31, aim to enhance military cooperation in northern Scandinavia. The exercises, especially significant as Finland only joined NATO in April 2023, are viewed as provocative by Moscow, given Finland's 1,340-kilometer border with Russia. The drills involve attack helicopters, drones, and advanced artillery systems such as the British AH-64E Apache helicopters and a Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). While NATO states the exercises are defensive, Russia perceives them as increasingly aggressive, noting their larger scale compared to previous drills. Russia has long been wary of the growing NATO presence in the Baltic and considers these exercises a threat to regional stability, particularly as Finland and Sweden, once neutral, now align with NATO. The drills complicate prospects for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. 

For First Time, UK Protector Drone Flies Outside of Main Operating Base 

The U.K. Royal Air Force’s new Protector drone has completed its first flight away from its main operating base at RAF Waddington, landing successfully at RAF Marham in a milestone for the remotely piloted air system’s (RPAS) ongoing test and evaluation program. This marked the first time Protector, which is set to replace the RAF’s Reaper fleet later this year, has operated beyond Waddington, demonstrating its capability to refuel, rearm, and operate from alternative locations. The coordinated flight through U.K. airspace involved collaboration with the National Air Traffic Service, Swanwick Military Air Traffic Control, and the Civil Aviation Authority, proving Protector’s safe integration into controlled airspace. Personnel from 56 Squadron, the ISTAR Air Wing, and RAF Marham’s Operations Wing participated in the operation, with engineers from 31 Squadron supporting the deployment. Controlled remotely from RAF Waddington, Protector offers long-endurance intelligence, surveillance, and precision strike capabilities, flying up to 40,000 feet for over 30 hours. It also supports NATO Flight Training Europe. Additional flight testing is planned throughout the summer.

MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL 

Loss of F/A-18 Fighter Jet Claimed by Houthis 

Houthi forces in Yemen claimed responsibility for forcing a U.S. F/A-18E Super Hornet off the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea, alleging their drone and missile attacks caused the loss, though the U.S. Navy attributed it only to an unspecified incident under investigation. Analysts noted the Truman had executed a sharp evasive maneuver days before the jet fell overboard, raising speculation it was avoiding Houthi strikes. The incident highlights the escalating conflict under President Trump’s second term, with the U.S. aiming to counter Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping—threats the Houthis link to solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing Gaza war. The Houthis also claimed to have targeted the USS Carl Vinson and its escort vessels in the Arabian Sea following joint U.S.-UK strikes on Houthi positions in Sanaa. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran over its support to the Houthis, while Houthi officials dismissed U.S. and British actions as morale-boosting stunts. Experts warn the conflict could expand without a coordinated international response, especially amid sensitive nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Sec Def Hegseth Sends Threat to Iran, Blaming Them for Supporting Houthis 

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has directly blamed Iran for supplying weapons, intelligence, and funding to Yemen’s Houthi fighters, warning Tehran of consequences to be delivered “at the time and place” of Washington’s choosing. His statement, posted on X, echoed President Donald Trump’s mid-March remarks on Truth Social asserting Iran’s full control over Houthi actions, including attacks on Red Sea shipping intended to pressure Israel over Gaza. The U.S. launched a large-scale air and naval strike campaign in March to protect maritime routes, with the latest round of strikes, joined by British aircraft, targeting Houthi drone-manufacturing sites near Sanaa. Tehran denies orchestrating Houthi actions, with IRGC Commander Hossein Salami stating that the Houthis, or Ansar Allah, act independently as representatives of the Yemeni people. The conflict has intensified since the U.S.-led campaign began, with Washington holding Iran accountable for every Houthi strike moving forward. The internationalization of the campaign, including British involvement, underscores escalating regional tensions and signals that the U.S. and its allies are prepared for broader confrontation if attacks continue. 

New Ballistic Missile Unveiled by Iran has Range of 1,200km

On Sunday, Iran unveiled a new solid-fuel ballistic missile, the Ghassem Basir, with a range of 1,200 kilometers (745 miles), marking a significant defense achievement amid rising tensions with the West. The missile’s introduction comes as Western nations express concerns over Iran's missile capabilities, which they argue contribute to regional instability. Iran is a key supporter of militant groups opposed to Israel, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi rebels. In October, direct attacks between Iran and Israel occurred for the first time, escalating tensions further. Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh emphasized that Iran would retaliate with force if attacked, targeting American bases. This missile unveiling follows recent Oman-mediated talks between Tehran and Washington regarding Iran's nuclear program, the highest-level discussions since the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. Despite international calls for Iran to cease uranium enrichment, Tehran maintains its nuclear pursuits are peaceful. Iran has rejected negotiations over its military capabilities, including its missile program. U.S. sanctions and threats of military action continue to loom. 

Libya Sees Fighting Again as Clashes Breaks Out in Capital 

Deadly militia clashes erupted in Tripoli on May 13 following the killing of Abdelghani al-Kikli, alias “Gheniwa,” a powerful militia leader heading the Stability Support Authority (SSA), triggering intense gunfire and explosions across the Abu Salim district and leaving at least six dead. Al-Kikli was reportedly ambushed by the rival 444 Brigade, led by Mahmoud Hamza, a commander allied with Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Al-Kikli, once a dominant power broker accused of war crimes, had deeply entrenched his network within Libya’s state institutions. His death prompted emergency lockdowns, hospital alerts, and school closures as the Government of National Unity (GNU) launched a “military operation” to restore order. The United Nations condemned the violence and warned that civilian-targeted attacks may constitute war crimes. Analysts say the killing reshapes Tripoli’s power dynamics, consolidating Dbeibah’s dominance in western Libya as U.S.-backed efforts pursue a unified military council. Libya remains fragmented since Gaddafi’s 2011 ouster, with rival governments in Tripoli and Benghazi and heavily armed militias vying for control amid a fragile 2020 ceasefire.

Libya Sees Fighting Again as Clashes Breaks Out in Capital 

Deadly militia clashes erupted in Tripoli on May 13 following the killing of Abdelghani al-Kikli, alias “Gheniwa,” a powerful militia leader heading the Stability Support Authority (SSA), triggering intense gunfire and explosions across the Abu Salim district and leaving at least six dead. Al-Kikli was reportedly ambushed by the rival 444 Brigade, led by Mahmoud Hamza, a commander allied with Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Al-Kikli, once a dominant power broker accused of war crimes, had deeply entrenched his network within Libya’s state institutions. His death prompted emergency lockdowns, hospital alerts, and school closures as the Government of National Unity (GNU) launched a “military operation” to restore order. The United Nations condemned the violence and warned that civilian-targeted attacks may constitute war crimes. Analysts say the killing reshapes Tripoli’s power dynamics, consolidating Dbeibah’s dominance in western Libya as U.S.-backed efforts pursue a unified military council. Libya remains fragmented since Gaddafi’s 2011 ouster, with rival governments in Tripoli and Benghazi and heavily armed militias vying for control amid a fragile 2020 ceasefire. 

RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT 

Ukraine Launches New Kursk Offensive, Rejecting Russian Truce Offer 

Ukraine rejected Russia’s proposed May 9 Victory Day ceasefire and instead launched a new offensive into Russia’s Kursk region, shifting operations to the Glushkovsky district after severing a key Seim River bridge, according to Russian military Telegram channels. Ukrainian forces reportedly crossed from Ryzhivka toward Tyotkino, supported by infantry in all-terrain vehicles and demining equipment. The operation included clearing Russian defenses near Novy Put and airstrikes on a recently repaired bridge at Zvannoye. Despite the attack, Russian forces claim continued access via pontoon bridges. Intense Ukrainian artillery fire preceded the assault, and wet conditions reportedly limited drone use. Ukraine has held the Seim River’s right bank near Tyotkino since August 2024, leveraging the terrain. Russian sources say the initial Ukrainian push failed but acknowledge Kyiv’s continued preparations, with heavy fire targeting Russian logistics to isolate the combat zone. Ukraine’s objective appears to be advancing on Glushkovo and cutting supply lines from Vremennoye. Additionally, a HIMARS strike on Rylsk’s electrical substation caused a power outage. No official Russian government response has yet been issued regarding the attacks.

Russian Airstrikes Hit 162 Targets in Ukraine 

On May 1, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced it had conducted coordinated strikes on 162 Ukrainian locations, targeting military airfields, drone production hubs, and bases of Ukrainian and foreign fighters using tactical aircraft, drones, missiles, and artillery. The ministry claimed that over the past 24 hours, Russian air defenses intercepted six U.S.-made JDAM bombs and 137 Ukrainian drones. Regional breakdowns included significant reported Ukrainian losses: over 445 troops in Donetsk, 100 in Zaporozhye and Kherson, 195 near Gulyaipole, 225 in Kharkov, and 170 in Sumy and Kharkov regions. Russian battlegroups allegedly destroyed various equipment, including U.S.-made HMMWVs, German Panzerhaubitze 2000s, an Israeli RADA radar, and multiple armored vehicles and artillery systems. Notably, in Donetsk, Russia said it struck the Azov Special Operations Brigade, which it labels a banned group. Cumulative Russian figures since the war’s start claim over 54,000 Ukrainian drones and 23,000 armored vehicles destroyed. Ukraine has not commented on the latest claims, and no independent sources have verified the reported figures or battlefield outcomes. 

With Istanbul Peace Talks Pending, Russia and Ukraine Continue to Exchange Significant Drone Attacks 

The U.S. State Department reiterated its commitment to ending the war in Ukraine and pushing for a ceasefire, despite continued violence on the ground. Over the weekend, President Putin proposed negotiations in Istanbul, and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed willingness to meet personally with Putin, urging him not to make excuses. While both leaders signaled openness to talks, Ukraine's Air Force reported dozens of drone attacks overnight, with at least 108 Russian drones launched across Ukraine, injuring 22 people and causing significant damage. The violence came after a brief, unilateral ceasefire declared by Russia for Victory Day, which saw limited violations from both sides. Meanwhile, European leaders, including those from Britain, France, Germany, and Poland, visited Kyiv in solidarity with Zelensky. President Trump also weighed in, expressing frustration with the slow pace of negotiations and urging a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky. On the Russian side, Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Belgorod and Kursk regions led to civilian injuries. The upcoming Istanbul talks may provide an opportunity for both sides to assess the possibility of peace. 

Trump Claims Peace Deal with Ukraine not Going to Happen Until He and Putin Get Together 

Former U.S. President Donald Trump stated that peace between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely without a direct meeting between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin, following Putin's refusal to attend negotiations in Istanbul with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump, hinting at a possible visit to Turkey on Friday “if appropriate,” dismissed Putin’s absence, saying, “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together.” His comments came as Zelensky arrived in Ankara for talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and mocked the Russian delegation in Istanbul as mere “stand-in props,” questioning the seriousness of Moscow’s participation. The meetings in Istanbul mark the first direct Russia-Ukraine contact since March 2022, but Moscow has only sent a low-level delegation. Erdoğan is expected to push for a ceasefire during the talks. Trump emphasized the urgency of resolving the conflict, citing the ongoing loss of life, while framing himself as central to any viable peace solution. The situation underscores both the fragility of current diplomacy and the geopolitical maneuvering surrounding the war. 

INDIA-PAKISTAN TENSIONS 

Nuclear Armed India and Pakistan on the Verge of War 

India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed and historically hostile over the disputed region of Kashmir, have exchanged gunfire across the Line of Control (LoC) since an April 22 attack India blames on Pakistan—a charge Islamabad denies. The 770-kilometre LoC, demarcating control since 1949, spans harsh Himalayan peaks to southern foothills. Kashmir, claimed by both nations since their 1947 partition, has seen insurgency since 1989, with each country accusing the other of supporting militants. Despite India’s superior military strength—including 1.47 million active troops, a $81 billion defense budget, and equipment sourced from Russia, the U.S., France, and Israel—Pakistan’s 660,000-strong military, backed by Chinese and Turkish arms, emphasizes its insurgency-fighting experience. Both sides possess diverse nuclear delivery systems, with India advancing submarine and intercontinental capabilities, and Pakistan pursuing sea-based cruise missiles. India operates over 1,400 aircraft and 11,000 artillery units; Pakistan maintains 812 aircraft and over 4,600 artillery pieces. Tensions remain high, with both nations enhancing their arsenals since India’s 2019 airstrikes on Pakistan following a deadly attack in Kashmir, raising concerns of escalation. 

Indian Fighter Jets Hit Targets Inside Pakistan 

India launched a precision airstrike operation codenamed “Sindoor” early this morning, deploying Rafale fighter jets that fired SCALP missiles and AASM Hammer bombs at terrorist targets in Pakistan, reportedly killing around 70 militants and injuring 60 more. Conducted between 1:05 and 1:30 AM, the strike was based on credible intelligence indicating the use of the sites for cross-border terrorism. According to a joint Indian Army and Air Force briefing, Indian aircraft did not enter Pakistani airspace, contradicting Islamabad’s claims that three Indian jets were shot down. The operation also employed loitering munitions and was described by Indian officials as “focused, measured, and non-escalatory,” with deliberate efforts made to avoid Pakistani military installations to reduce the risk of escalation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally chose the operation’s codename “Sindoor,” a symbolic tribute to the widows of the Pahalgam attack. Indian defense officials emphasized that the strike aimed solely at neutralizing terrorist infrastructure, underscoring restraint while reinforcing India’s resolve to respond decisively to terrorism emanating from across the border.

Pakistan Claims to Have Shot Down Multiple Aircraft and Drones from India 

Pakistan’s army claimed Thursday it shot down 25 Indian drones following India’s missile strikes a day earlier—the worst cross-border violence in two decades—killing at least 45 people on both sides, including children. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed revenge, while Pakistan’s military said Israeli-made Harop drones targeted multiple locations, wounding four troops in Lahore and killing one civilian in Sindh. India said its strikes destroyed nine “terrorist camps” in retaliation for the April 22 Pahalgam attack blamed on Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, which left 26 civilians dead. Pakistan denied involvement and demanded an independent probe. Islamabad said 31 civilians were killed in Indian attacks; India reported 14 dead on its side. Pakistan claimed to have downed five Indian jets, though India confirmed only three crashes within its territory. Airports in Lahore, Islamabad, and Karachi were temporarily closed amid explosions. With both nuclear powers trading threats and artillery fire since April 24, global leaders, including President Trump, urged restraint. Analysts expect Pakistan to conduct limited retaliatory strikes to "save face" as border regions brace for further escalation. 

‘Firm Response’ Warning from India to Pakistan After both Sides Trade Fire 

India warned on Thursday that any military action by Pakistan would be met with a "very, very firm response" following Wednesday’s missile strikes by New Delhi in retaliation for an attack it blames on Islamabad. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized that India's strikes were targeted and measured, with no intention to escalate the situation, but stressed that military attacks on India would provoke a strong response. The violence escalated along the Kashmir border, leaving at least 45 dead on both sides, including children. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed retaliation, declaring, "We will avenge each drop of the blood of these martyrs." The missile strikes followed days of intense gunfire and artillery shelling. Tehran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived in India after visiting Pakistan, expressing hopes for de-escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors. India claimed it destroyed nine "terrorist camps" in Pakistan in a measured strike, while Pakistan denies involvement in the recent Kashmir attacks, further complicating the already tense situation. 

Three Terrorists Killed in Kashmir’s Shopian District by Indian Army 

On May 13, 2025, the Indian Army killed three terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir’s Shopian district during Operation Keller, a counter-terrorism mission launched by the Rashtriya Rifles based on specific intelligence. A fierce gunfight erupted after militants opened heavy fire in the dense Keller forests. The operation remains ongoing, as authorities suspect more militants may be hiding in the area. The identities of the slain terrorists are yet to be confirmed, but officials are probing possible links to the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people, including 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali national. Since that massacre, Indian forces have intensified combing operations across South Kashmir and Kishtwar. Investigators suspect the attack was orchestrated by LeT operatives, including Hussain Thoker from Anantnag and two Pakistanis—Ali Bhai and Hasim Musa. Rewards of ₹20 lakh have been announced for their capture. Operation Keller follows heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, which agreed to a ceasefire on May 10. However, ceasefire violations and retaliatory strikes, including drone and air attacks, have continued across the region.

INDO-PACIFIC 

Chinese Factories Shutdown, Workers Protests Over Unpaid Wages Amid Trump Tariffs 

President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports, primarily targeting goods with duties up to 145%, are severely affecting Chinese factories and workers. Many factories have been forced to shut down or reduce production as American companies cancel or suspend orders due to the increased costs, while others struggle with shortages of raw materials. The trade war, which has disrupted China’s exports to the U.S. (which accounted for about 15% of all exports in 2024), has also led to worker protests across various regions in China. Workers in cities like Suining and Dao County have taken to the streets demanding unpaid wages and protesting wrongful firings. The economic impact is profound, with Goldman Sachs estimating that up to 16 million jobs in China could be at risk. In response to these pressures, Trump has maintained his stance on tariffs, stating that they are necessary to protect U.S. workers, despite the negative effects on China's economy, including a sharp decline in manufacturing activity. While negotiations are ongoing, Trump has refused to lower tariffs to facilitate talks. 

US Concerned About Spying as China is Building Up in Cuba According to Satellite Images 

China’s growing influence in Cuba is raising alarm over potential covert surveillance operations targeting the United States, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The report highlights a suspected circularly disposed antenna array (CDAA) at Cuba’s Bejucal signals intelligence site, located near Havana. This antenna could potentially monitor U.S. military bases and Washington, D.C., by intercepting radio signals from 3,000 to 8,000 miles away. U.S. lawmakers, particularly House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rick Crawford, have expressed deep concern, describing China's actions as direct adversarial behavior against the U.S. The proximity of such surveillance facilities to sensitive U.S. sites like Naval Station Guantánamo Bay and Cape Canaveral could allow China to monitor U.S. detection and response capabilities, posing a significant threat to national security. In 2023, reports indicated that China and Cuba reached an agreement to establish an electronic surveillance facility to monitor U.S. activities, further intensifying concerns about China’s expanding influence in the region. 

GEOPOLITICS 

Ukrainian Mineral Deal Finally Signed by US and Ukraine 

The United States and Ukraine signed a minerals agreement on Wednesday, creating a joint investment fund that will allow American investors to share in profits from rare minerals found in Ukraine. While the Trump administration hailed the deal, it did not provide specific details, and there are no explicit security guarantees for Ukraine included in the agreement. Sources indicated that security guarantees were rejected early in the negotiations. The deal, originally set for March, came after tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who left the White House amid deteriorating discussions. The agreement does not guarantee future military assistance, and it would require Ukraine to contribute half of future revenues from state-owned natural resources to a U.S.-Ukraine rehabilitation fund. Earlier drafts suggested the U.S. could gain control over significant infrastructure and projects in Ukraine, including roads, railways, and natural resources. However, the U.S. has reportedly scaled back many of its original demands over time, leaving the deal's significance uncertain, especially if the conflict with Russia continues. 

Trump will only Accept ‘Total Dismantlement’ of Iranian Nuclear Program 

In a recent interview with NBC's Kristen Welker, US President Donald Trump reiterated his stance on Iran, emphasizing that while he wants the country to be successful, he would only accept the "total dismantlement" of Iran's nuclear program. Trump stressed that Iran could thrive economically and politically but acquiring nuclear weapons would be unacceptable due to the potential catastrophic consequences. As the Trump administration continues negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, a fourth round of talks is scheduled for this week. The US aims to address Tehran's support for regional proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Palestinian factions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed Trump's views, asserting that attacks by the Houthis, including a missile strike near Ben Gurion International Airport, are directly linked to Iran. Netanyahu vowed to respond to these attacks and to Iran’s influence in the region at a time of Israel’s choosing, underscoring the shared concerns over Iran’s destabilizing activities. 

As Negotiations Continue, US Announces New Sanctions Against Iran 

On Monday, the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran over its expanding nuclear program, targeting three Iranian individuals and one entity linked to Tehran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND). Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran continues dual-use research relevant to nuclear weapons and delivery systems, noting that it is the only non-nuclear-armed nation enriching uranium to 60%—far above the 3.67% cap set by the 2015 nuclear deal, which the U.S. exited under President Trump. While 90% enrichment is needed for a bomb, the U.S. sees Iran's current activities as a significant proliferation threat. The sanctions, announced a day after the fourth round of nuclear talks concluded without a breakthrough but with cautious optimism, freeze any U.S.-based assets of the sanctioned parties and ban U.S. business dealings with them. Those named include three senior officials and the company Fuya Pars Prospective Technologists (aka Ideal Vacuum), accused of attempting to acquire or manufacture nuclear weapons-related equipment. The U.S. maintains that the sanctions reinforce diplomatic efforts, while Iran denies pursuing nuclear weapons.

Military Action Back on the Table for US If No Immediate Progress is Made with Iran 

Sources close to U.S. envoy Steve Witcoff revealed that unless significant progress is made during Sunday's round of nuclear talks with Iran, the U.S. will consider reintroducing the military option. While previous talks in Oman and Rome fostered optimism and a friendly atmosphere, fundamental issues remain unresolved. Both American and Iranian representatives expressed cautious hope, but key technical details were not finalized. The U.S. has placed particular importance on the appointment of Michael Anton, the State Department’s policy planning director, as the lead representative for the technical phases of the negotiations. Anton, described as an Iran expert with strong deal-making skills, is seen as a strategic choice to secure a deal with Iran. This move underscores President Trump’s desire to make headway on the nuclear issue. Despite the positive tone of the talks, there are still significant hurdles to overcome, and the U.S. has made it clear that a lack of progress may lead to a more aggressive stance. 

Growing Rift Between Trump and Netanyahu Might Be Irreconcilable 

A recent report suggests that U.S. President Donald Trump severed all direct contact with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after feeling manipulated by him, an issue that traces back to late 2020 when Netanyahu publicly recognized Joe Biden’s election victory while Trump was still challenging the results. More recently, Netanyahu’s pressure on Trump to attack Iran has strained their relationship, especially as Trump seeks to refocus U.S. efforts on containing China rather than engaging in Middle Eastern conflicts. Additionally, reports indicate Israel was surprised by U.S. efforts to resume talks with Iran and disapproves of deals with the Houthis that exclude Israel. Further complicating matters, the U.S. has reportedly delinked Saudi recognition of Israel from civil nuclear talks, and Trump may even consider recognizing Palestine during the Gulf-US Summit in Riyadh. These tensions have led to a rift between the U.S. and Israel, potentially weakening Israel's position in the region. Although there’s still hope for reconciliation, Netanyahu may need to offer a significant strategic concession to mend ties. 

Trump Claims ‘Close to Deal with Iran’ at Doha Summit 

President Donald Trump expressed optimism that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching an agreement to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear program, speaking at a business forum in Doha, Qatar. On the third day of his Middle East visit, Trump said indirect talks in Oman are “getting close” to a deal that could avoid military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He noted that Iran has “sort of agreed to the terms,” and described the negotiations as serious efforts toward long-term peace. The day before, Iranian Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, told NBC News that both sides were nearing an agreement, possibly to be signed “today.” Shamkhani indicated Iran was willing to make major concessions, including allowing regular inspections of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and surrendering nearly 300 kilograms of enriched uranium—a key U.S. demand. In exchange, Iran is seeking the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions, signaling potential progress toward a diplomatic resolution of the nuclear standoff. 

  

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