Mid-September SitRep Support

Mid-September SitRep Support

 MID-SEPTEMBER SITREP SUPPORT 

LEAD STORIES 

Germany’s Far-Righ AfD Party Wins State Election for First Time Since WW2 

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), known for its anti-migration and Eurosceptic stance, achieved a historic result in Germany's state elections, becoming the top vote-getter in Thuringia with 32.8% of the vote. This marks the first time a far-right party has led in a German state parliament since World War II. The CDU, the center-right party, secured 23.6% of the vote in Thuringia and is also leading in neighboring Saxony, where AfD came in a close second with 31.5%. Despite its strong performance, the AfD is expected to be excluded from power due to other parties' refusal to collaborate. The results are a setback for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition, which saw weak results from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP). AfD's leader in Thuringia, Bjorn Hocke, expressed pride despite the party’s branches being under surveillance as "right-wing extremist" and Hocke himself facing controversy over using Nazi slogans. 

US HHS Seizes Venezuelan Presidents Plane and Fly it to Florida 

In an unprecedented move, the United States has seized a Dassault Falcon 900 jet belonging to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, citing violations of US sanctions. The $13 million aircraft, which served as Venezuela's equivalent of Air Force One, was detained at an airport in the Dominican Republic, where it had been for several months. The US Department of Homeland Security monitored the plane before it was flown to Florida on Monday. This action, described by a Biden administration official as sending a "strong message," is intended to signal that no one is beyond the reach of US sanctions. The Department of Justice, involved in the operation, alleged that the plane was purchased through a shell company and smuggled out of the US. The seizure is also framed as a response to Maduro’s alleged election tampering and repression. The move has elicited mixed reactions, with some viewing it as a significant escalation and others, like Erik Prince, celebrating the act. 

Turkish Mob Assaults US Soldiers After Navy Ship Makes Port of Call in Izmir, Turkey 

On Monday, American soldiers on leave in Izmir, Turkey, were attacked by a mob of Turkish men, linked to the ultra-nationalist Turkey Youth Union (TGB). The assault, which occurred after the USS Wasp made a port call, involved the attackers surrounding and attempting to humiliate one US soldier by covering his head with a bag. Other US troops intervened, and local police quickly arrested 15 assailants. The US Embassy confirmed that the soldiers were safe, though no details on injuries were provided. The attackers reportedly chanted "Yankee, go home!" during the incident. The USS Wasp's visit was part of a broader deployment to the Mediterranean and Middle East amid regional tensions. The attack has been interpreted by some as a reaction to historical grievances, such as the 2003 incident when US soldiers placed sacks over Turkish soldiers in Iraq, and possibly connected to current Turkish-Israeli tensions over Gaza. The rare attack on US personnel in Turkey highlights strained relations amidst ongoing geopolitical issues.

Nuclear Weapons Stationed in Europe 

August 29 has been observed as the International Day against Nuclear Tests since 2010, following a UN General Assembly resolution urging an end to nuclear testing to protect human health and the environment and to work towards a world free of nuclear weapons. Despite this, nuclear weapons remain stationed at several military bases across Europe. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN Deutschland), around 180 U.S. B61 nuclear bombs are deployed in Europe, with up to 20 at the Büchel air base in Germany. The U.S. also maintains nuclear weapons in the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey. France possesses 290 nuclear warheads, including both submarine and air-to-surface missiles, stationed at three bases, while the UK’s arsenal consists solely of submarine missiles located at the Faslane base in Scotland. The continued presence of these arsenals highlights ongoing challenges in global disarmament efforts. 

Biden-Harris Economy Only Added 99,000 Jobs in August with Manufacturing Jobs Shrinking 

Private sector payrolls grew by just 99,000 in August, according to ADP, marking the smallest increase since 2021 and indicating a possible softening of the labor market. This growth fell short of economists' expectations of 140,000, with July’s figures also revised down from 122,000 to 111,000. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, noted that hiring has slowed after two years of unusually strong growth. While sectors like natural resources, construction, trade, transportation, finance, education, and hospitality continued to add jobs, the manufacturing sector lost 8,000 workers. Jobs were also lost in the information and professional services sectors. 

New Russian Election Interference Accusation Released by Biden DoJ Just in Time for Election 

The Biden administration has accused Russia of election interference ahead of the 2024 U.S. election. The Department of Justice (DOJ) alleges that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered companies to use influencers and social media in a campaign called "Doppelganger" to spread propaganda targeting Americans. Two employees of RT, a Russian state-controlled media outlet, were charged with money laundering and violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The campaign sought to influence voters and undermine support for Ukraine, though its impact appeared limited, with low engagement on some platforms. The operation had a reported budget of $10 million. The indictment comes as concerns over foreign election interference resurface, echoing allegations from the 2016 election. FBI Director Christopher Wray emphasized the seriousness of the threat and outlined steps taken to expose Russian influence operations, including the seizure of websites used to spread disinformation. The accusations coincide with ongoing discussions about election security and social media censorship, particularly in the context of past controversies involving tech companies. 

 

BORDER CRISIS 

Armed Venezuelan Gangs Overrun Colorado Apartment 

Residents of a Colorado apartment building are taking drastic measures after a Venezuelan gang, reportedly Tren de Aragua, stormed their complex. A video surfaced showing armed gang members, including one with a rifle, breaking into the building and attempting to enter various apartments. This incident occurred shortly before a related shootout outside the Aurora housing complex, The Edge at Lowry, which resulted in multiple damaged cars and one injured person. The footage shows the men, some of whom were casually dressed and using tools like a hammer to force entry. The exact motives of the gang remain unclear, but the violence has prompted residents like Cindy Romero to flee, citing increased safety concerns. Aurora City Council member Danielle Jurinsky has criticized the handling of the migrant crisis and urged state and local officials to address the issue. Since December 2022, Denver, a sanctuary city, has received over 40,000 migrants, exacerbating local tensions. 

After Unveiling New Security Package, Germany Deports 28 Afghans Criminals 

On Friday, Germany deported 28 Afghan nationals convicted of crimes back to Afghanistan, marking the first such flight since the Taliban's return to power in August 2021. The deportation, which involved a Qatar Airways Boeing 787, was part of Germany's effort to tighten asylum regulations following recent violent incidents linked to migrants. The decision comes after a fatal knife attack in Mannheim in May, allegedly by an Afghan refugee, and another attack in Solingen in August by a Syrian man. German officials, including Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, are using these events to push for stricter migration policies and faster deportations of rejected asylum seekers and undocumented immigrants. The deportations and new security measures aim to address rising far-right criticism and strengthen the government's stance on immigration. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has leveraged these events to gain support ahead of state elections, emphasizing the contentious nature of Germany’s migration debate. 

75% of Arrests in Midtown NYC are Illegals 

Recent reports reveal that 75% of those arrested in Midtown Manhattan for serious crimes, such as assault and robbery, are migrants, with about 60% in Queens. This issue is exacerbated by New York City's sanctuary city laws, which prevent local police from cooperating with ICE and tracking the immigration status of suspects. Critics, including former prosecutor Jim Quinn, argue that these laws hinder law enforcement and contribute to rising crime rates. Migrants reportedly exploit the city's lenient policies, returning to the streets quickly after arrests. Police sources indicate that many migrants arrested are involved in high-value thefts and other crimes, while the city’s courts are overwhelmed with cases involving migrants, requiring additional Spanish interpreters. Some high-profile cases include violent crimes committed by migrants, such as sexual assault and gang violence. The Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua has also been linked to multiple crimes and violence in the city. Critics blame the current crime situation on both the city's sanctuary policies and federal immigration policies. 

Biden-Harris Admin Work with Mexican Government to Get Migrants Bus Passage Through Mexico Utilizing ‘Asylum’ App 

The Biden/Harris administration and the Mexican government have introduced a new immigration initiative called the "Secure Emerging Mobility Corridor," designed to streamline the movement of migrants from southern Mexico to the U.S. border. This program, announced by Mexico's National Institute of Migration (INM), will offer bus transportation from Villahermosa, Tabasco, and Tapachula, Chiapas, to U.S. destinations for asylum appointments scheduled through the CBP-One application. Migrants will receive meals and security during transit, and INM will manage their travel and provide an immigration permit valid for 20 days. This development follows recent meetings between Mexican and U.S. officials to expand the regions in Mexico where migrants can schedule CBP-One appointments. Previously limited to central and northern Mexico, the program's southern expansion aims to better control migrant flows. While the initiative aims to enhance order and safety, it may encounter challenges, including cartel violence and limited job opportunities in southern Mexico, which could affect migrants' journey and access to asylum services. 

City of 60,000 in Ohio Overwhelmed After Biden-Harris Admin Flys in 20,000 Haitians Migrants 

Springfield, Ohio, a city of 60,000, has been overwhelmed by an influx of 20,000 Haitian migrants, intensifying a severe housing crisis, according to city officials. Local residents have reported disturbing incidents, including migrants allegedly eating wildlife and pets, with one resident claiming they saw a cat being butchered for consumption. While some of these claims have been dismissed as fear-mongering, others argue they reflect genuine cultural differences. Tensions have escalated, particularly after a Haitian migrant caused a school bus crash last year that killed 11-year-old Aiden Clark. Residents have expressed frustration over littering and harassment, with some feeling their community has been overtaken. City Manager Bryan Heck has called for additional federal funding, citing the population surge's strain on housing.

23 Years After 9/11, Record Number of Migrants on ‘Terror Watchlist’ Arriving at the Border  

On the twenty-third anniversary of the September 11, 2001, attacks, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are facing scrutiny over record levels of illegal border crossings, including individuals on the Terrorist Watch List. From Fiscal Year 2021 through July 2024, nearly 400 illegal aliens on this list attempted to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, a significant increase compared to around 100 such crossings from 2012 to 2017. Additionally, an interim report from the House Judiciary Committee reveals that the administration has released at least 99 of these individuals into the U.S. interior since 2021. The report highlights a concerning influx of nationals from countries with potential security risks, such as Afghanistan, China, Iran, Syria, and Uzbekistan. The Biden-Harris administration has not disclosed the nationalities of the Terrorist Watch List individuals caught crossing the border. This situation is exacerbated by a recent case where a Pakistani national, allegedly linked to ISIS, was charged with planning a mass attack in New York City. 

 

BOHICA! 

Ukraine Government Suspend Payments on $700M in Debt to Cargill 

The Ukrainian government has suspended approximately $700 million in payments owed to Cargill as part of a broader debt reorganization amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. The suspension, set to begin next week, affects a loan provided by Cargill Financial Services International, the agribusiness firm’s trade financing arm. Cargill, which has a long history of trade finance in former Soviet countries, has not yet commented on the situation. This move is part of Ukraine’s wider financial adjustments due to the war, including recent debt restructuring agreements with overseas bondholders. Ukraine has restructured $20 billion in debt, with bondholders accepting a 37% loss on their claims, and also suspended payments on $825 million in bonds from a state-owned power company. Cargill, involved in the region’s grain trade, halted exports from Russian ports and plans to sell its 25% stake in a Black Sea grain terminal as part of its exit from Russian business operations. 

US Pledges $250M Weapons Package for Ukraine 

The U.S. is providing $250 million in weapons and supplies to Ukraine, announced under Presidential Drawdown Authority, marking the 65th such aid package since August 2021. This latest package includes air defense missiles, rocket and artillery munitions, armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, small arms ammunition, patrol boats, and other maritime equipment. The announcement coincided with Russian strikes across Ukraine, which left three dead and 51 injured. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, speaking at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Germany, reaffirmed the support of 50 nations backing Ukraine and emphasized that Ukraine continues to seize battlefield momentum, including operations in Russia's Kursk region. Austin highlighted recent contributions from Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Italy, as well as the delivery of Ukraine's first F-16 fighters. Since June, the U.S. has provided $4 billion in security aid, with Austin promising to "surge" more capabilities to meet Ukraine’s evolving defense needs and deliver them "at the speed of war." 

Egypt to be Granted $1.3BN in Military Aid by US, Overriding Human Rights Conditions 

The Biden administration has waived human rights conditions on $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt, marking the first time under this administration that Egypt has received its full allocation despite concerns over its human rights record. The move comes as the U.S. relies on Egypt, a longstanding ally, to mediate ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas amid the ongoing war in Gaza. Of the aid, $320 million was subject to conditions, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken waived the requirement on $225 million, citing U.S. national security interests. The decision is aimed at advancing peace efforts in Gaza, including securing a ceasefire, releasing hostages, and providing humanitarian assistance. Senator Chris Murphy criticized the waiver, pointing out Egypt’s repressive regime under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who denies human rights abuses. Despite allegations of torture and political repression, Egypt remains a key regional ally for Washington, with the administration prioritizing stability and strategic cooperation in the region. 

 WAR (and rumors of war) 

US MILITARY 

Anti-Drone System Demoed by Texas Startup 

Allen Control Systems (ACS) showcased its Bullfrog counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) gun at a U.S. Department of Defense tactical convention at Camp Atterbury, Indiana. The Texas-based startup demonstrated the weapon’s ability to autonomously scan and neutralize drone threats, consistently defeating single and multiple drone engagements during live-fire tests. The Bullfrog’s low cost, lightweight design, and quick anti-drone response were highlighted as key advantages. Steven Simoni, ACS’ co-founder and CEO, emphasized that the system offers a cost-effective solution to counter low-flying, inexpensive drones on the battlefield. The 400-pound Bullfrog gun turret, designed for class 1 to 3 UAS platforms, features fully automatic and semi-automatic modes with a low false negative rate. It incorporates computer vision, artificial intelligence, and an M240 machine gun for precision strikes using 7.62-millimeter rounds. Attendees at the two-week event included over 30 representatives from Pentagon stakeholders, Congress, and C-UAS program offices. ACS views the successful demonstration as a milestone toward deployment and advancing cost-effective defense technologies. 

Air National Guard Unit Preps to for First KC-46 Pegasus Operational Deployment 

The New Hampshire Air National Guard’s 157th Air Refueling Wing is set for the first operational deployment of the KC-46A Pegasus refueling tankers to the Middle East, marking a historic moment for the Air Force. Over 180 airmen from Pease Air National Guard Base will embark on a 90-day mission, providing refueling support across the U.S. Central Command region. This deployment is also the first under the Air Force’s new model of deploying units instead of individuals, a shift from legacy KC-135 tankers. The mission reflects extensive training and preparation since the KC-46A's introduction in 2019. Governor Chris Sununu and Senator Jeanne Shaheen highlighted the significance of this deployment, emphasizing its impact on U.S. air refueling capabilities and global security, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. With a second deployment scheduled for next spring, this mission demonstrates the evolving role of air refueling in U.S. military operations. Lt. Col. Jim Lux, leading the mission, and other airmen expressed excitement and readiness for the historic challenge ahead. 

US Navy Ship Maintenance at Sea Crippled by Sailor Shortage 

A Government Accountability Office (GAO) report released Monday reveals that the Navy's manning shortages are significantly impacting its ability to conduct necessary ship repairs while at sea. According to the report, 63% of executive officers reported that insufficient manning made it challenging to complete repairs underway. This issue is compounded by outdated Navy guidelines and inadequate training. The Navy was short nearly 14,000 enlisted sailors as of late last year, affecting the maintenance capabilities of aircraft carriers, cruisers, and amphibious assault ships. The report highlights that smaller crews are overburdened, leading to burnout and attrition, and that current training inadequacies further hinder maintenance efforts. Sailors have expressed dissatisfaction with their training, particularly in maintenance roles, and highlighted issues with the quality and delivery of training. The GAO recommended improvements to crew levels, maintenance guidelines, and training quality. The Navy has acknowledged these recommendations and is working on enhancements through its Ready Relevant Learning initiative, although some training resources remain unavailable. 

 

FORTRESS EUROPE 

Russia Strikes Lviv in Western Ukraine, Poland Scrambles Fighter Jets as a Precaution 

In an overnight Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, Lviv, a city far from the front lines, was hit, resulting in seven deaths. This escalation is seen as a retaliatory move against Ukraine's Kursk cross-border offensive. The proximity of the strikes to Poland's border led to the scrambling of Polish and allied aircraft for the third time in eight days to monitor and potentially intercept any incoming missiles. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has controversially stated that NATO members have a duty to shoot down incoming Russian missiles threatening their airspace, arguing this is a constitutional obligation. Poland, which is heavily investing in its defense, has recently signed significant military deals, including purchasing Apache helicopters and Patriot systems, and plans to increase defense spending to 4.7% of GDP. Despite Poland’s push for NATO to adopt more aggressive engagement rules, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has resisted, citing concerns about escalating the conflict. 

Citing Russian Threat, Germany Activated Air-Defense System 

Germany has deployed its first Iris-T air defense system on home soil, following the delivery of several systems to Ukraine to counter Russian attacks. Chancellor Olaf Scholz highlighted the system as part of Germany and Europe's defense buildup, initiated in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Speaking at a ceremony in Todendorf, Scholz stressed the need to counter Russia's growing missile capabilities, particularly after President Putin's violation of disarmament treaties. The Iris-T system, part of the European Sky Shield Initiative, complements Germany's long-range ballistic missile defenses. Germany has ordered six Iris-T systems, costing €950 million, with delivery expected by 2027. Germany, the second-largest military aid provider to Ukraine after the U.S., has already supplied four Iris-T systems to Ukraine and pledged eight more. The system has successfully intercepted over 250 aerial threats in Ukraine. Scholz emphasized the importance of precision missiles for Europe and reiterated that Germany's goal is to deter potential attacks and secure peace, not provoke war. 

Netherlands Preps for War with Purchase of Combat Equipment 

The Netherlands is significantly enhancing its military capabilities in response to increasing geopolitical tensions. The Dutch government announced a €2.4 billion annual increase in defense spending, boosting the total defense budget to around €24 billion—almost double the 2022 level. This includes funding for a new tank battalion, additional F-35 fighter jets, and anti-submarine frigates. The initiative, driven by concerns over potential Russian aggression, aims to strengthen the Netherlands' defensive posture and align with NATO requirements. The country will also reintroduce Leopard 2 tanks and enhance infantry firepower with upgraded Boxer armored personnel carriers. The Royal Netherlands Navy will receive more anti-submarine frigates, helicopters, and uncrewed vessels. The investment extends to improving ammunition supplies, logistics, and defense-industry production. The Dutch government is also pursuing legislation to ensure defense spending remains at 2% of GDP. This comprehensive modernization reflects a shift from recent military engagements abroad to a focus on national defense and deterrence. 

  

MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL 

After Hamas Murders Six Hostages, Israel Vows ‘To Settle the Score’ 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to "settle the score" with Hamas after the bodies of six hostages were recovered from a Gaza tunnel. Netanyahu stated that those who kill hostages oppose a truce and emphasized Israel's resolve to act against Hamas. He cited a shooting attack near Hebron, which killed three police officers, as evidence of Hamas's ongoing aggression. Netanyahu said Israel is fighting a cruel enemy intent on destruction. Meanwhile, a senior Hamas official claimed that several of the deceased hostages were approved for release in a potential truce deal, though no agreement has been reached. The official accused Israel of killing the hostages during bombings, an allegation the Israeli military denied, asserting that Hamas brutally murdered them. Military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani described Hamas's claim as psychological warfare, noting there was no live-fire engagement in the tunnel where the bodies were found. The hostages were discovered about a kilometer from where another hostage was rescued earlier in Rafah. 

Iranian Terrorists Receive Money Funneled by Iraqi Banks Through US-Created System 

Following the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, a system set up to stabilize the country was exploited by corrupt Iraqi banks to funnel vast sums of money to Iranian terrorists. According to The Wall Street Journal, three banks operated by Ali Ghulam were involved in wiring tens of billions of dollars through fake vendors and fraudulent invoices. These transactions, often untraceable, funded Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other terrorist groups. Despite warnings to the Obama administration as early as 2012 about the fraudulent activity, no significant action was taken against the banks. The system, designed to stabilize Iraq's economy by holding oil revenues at the New York Fed and sending physical cash back to Baghdad, failed to monitor the transactions effectively due to Iraq's lack of participation in the Swift financial messaging network. Audits revealed that up to $800 million a week was being fraudulently moved, leading to the eventual shutdown of Ghulam’s operations in 2022. 

Iran Promises ‘Action’ Over New Western Sanctions 

Iran has pledged to retaliate against new sanctions imposed by Britain, Germany, and France, which accuse Tehran of supplying short-range missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani condemned the sanctions as part of the West's "hostile policy" and "economic terrorism" against Iran. He emphasized that the Islamic Republic would respond with "appropriate and proportionate action." The sanctions, announced late Tuesday, have escalated tensions between Iran and the European countries involved, reflecting ongoing geopolitical friction over Iran's role in the Ukraine conflict and its broader international relations. 

 

RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT 

Reports Confirm crash of Ukrainian F-16, Killing Pilot 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed that an F-16 fighter jet crashed while countering a Russian missile and drone strike, resulting in the death of pilot Oleksiy Mes. On August 29, the General Staff reported that the Ukrainian F-16s engaged in combat, shooting down four Russian cruise missiles before contact was lost with one aircraft, which later crashed. A Defense Ministry commission has been established to investigate the cause of the accident. Pentagon deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh acknowledged the reports but was unaware of any request for U.S. assistance, emphasizing the complexities of combat aviation. Initial reports suggested pilot error might be the cause, but the Ukrainian military does not believe this to be the case, and an investigation is ongoing with international expert participation. The Netherlands, which has pledged 24 F-16s to Ukraine, announced no restrictions on the jets' use on Russian territory, provided the laws of war are observed. The Dutch military commander indicated partial agreement from U.S. counterparts on this stance, though the operational status of the F-16s remains undisclosed. 

Drone Emits Molten Thermite into Tree Line on Ukraine’s Southern Front 

On September 2, footage surfaced showing a drone emitting a stream of fiery, molten metal, tentatively identified as thermite, on concealed soldiers. The drone appears to "breathe" a stream of intense heat, causing severe damage to the positions hidden in the treeline. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources have claimed credit for this drone innovation, with Ukrainian media suggesting it was deployed by Ukraine's 108th Territorial Defense Brigade near Ukrainske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Thermite weapons burn at temperatures exceeding 2,000 degrees Celsius, capable of melting armored vehicles and causing devastating injuries such as severe burns and respiratory damage. This reported use of thermite drones by Ukraine represents a novel approach to drone warfare, potentially setting fire to cover and causing secondary explosions. While both sides have developed effective drones, with Russia's Lancet kamikaze drones and Ukraine's countermeasures, the thermite-dropping drone marks a significant advancement in this ongoing aerial arms race. The video also shows burning trees and smoldering ground, emphasizing the weapon's destructive potential. 

Balloon-Based Sensor Emerges in Ukraine that can Pinpoint Drone Operator Locations 

Ukraine has introduced the Aero Azimuth, a balloon-carried electronic surveillance system designed to enhance the detection of enemy drone operators, offering a strategic advantage over targeting individual drones. Developed by Kvertus and recently showcased at a counter-drone technologies exhibition, Aero Azimuth utilizes a balloon from Aerobavovna and includes a trailer, winch, gas cylinder system, and maintenance tools. While the ground-based Azimuth system already existed, this is the first airborne adaptation, aiming to extend the detection range from about nine miles to 37 miles, with triangulation capabilities of 15-19 miles at optimal altitudes of 1,000-2,300 feet. The system employs passive signals intelligence (SIGINT) to locate radio-frequency signals from drone operators, enabling targeted countermeasures. The helium-filled aerostat can stay aloft for up to seven days and carry up to 55 pounds. This advancement addresses the Ukrainian military’s need for advanced warning against Russian drone activities. 

Ukrainian Military Intelligence Claims to Have Shot Down Russian Su-30 Fighter Jet 

On September 12, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported that Ukrainian soldiers downed a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet over the Black Sea. The aircraft, valued at approximately $50 million, was hit by a man-portable air defense system and belonged to the 43rd Separate Naval Aviation Regiment of the Russian Aerospace Forces, stationed at the Saky air base in Crimea. The Russian military lost contact with the jet’s crew on September 11, leading to a search and rescue mission involving an An-26 aircraft and Mi-8 and Ka-27 helicopters. Russia later discovered wreckage and aviation fuel in the sea, about 70 kilometers northwest of Cape Tarkhankut. The Kyiv Independent could not confirm these details independently. The Russian Defense Ministry reported repelling a Ukrainian attempt to regain control of the Krym-2 drilling rig in the Black Sea on the same day, but there is no evidence linking the two incidents. As of mid-August, Russia was using five military airfields in occupied Crimea, with two reportedly hit by Ukrainian forces. 

  

INDO-PACIFIC 

As Row with China Escalates, Taiwan to Purchase 2,000 Stinger Missiles 

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) plans to significantly increase its Stinger missile stockpile from 500 to 2,485 units, purchasing an additional 1,985 missiles from the U.S. in response to rising tensions with China. The ministry’s latest budget report requests 69 billion New Taiwan dollars ($2.2 billion) for this procurement, a substantial increase from the previously sought 13 billion New Taiwan dollars ($405 million). This expanded purchase includes 549 launch systems and 549 identification friend-or-foe (IFF) transponders, with U.S. approval for the changes. The move is driven by Beijing's increased military activity in Taiwan’s exclusive zone, prompting Taipei to strengthen its air defense capabilities. China considers Taiwan a part of its territory and has suggested it could use force to unify it with the mainland. Previously, in 2019, the U.S. approved Taiwan’s request for 250 Block I FIM-92 Stinger missiles valued at $224 million, and in 2023, the U.S. included Stinger missiles in a $500 million military aid package to Taiwan. The Stinger is a combat-proven, man-portable missile effective against low-flying aircraft. 

 

GEOPOLITICS 

Britain to Suspend Some Arms Exports to Israel 

On Monday, Britain suspended the export of certain military equipment to Israel, including components for aircraft, helicopters, and drones, citing concerns over potential violations of international law in the Gaza conflict. This decision affects about 30 out of 350 licenses for military goods, following criticism of Israel’s war methods that have resulted in significant Palestinian casualties and infrastructure damage. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy expressed regret but reaffirmed support for Israel’s right to self-defense. The suspension does not cover items like naval equipment or components for the F-35 fighter jet program, though these exceptions have faced criticism from Amnesty International for potentially enabling continued military actions in Gaza. Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, criticized the move, while the chief rabbi condemned it as misleading and detrimental to Israeli security. The British government’s policy paper highlighted Israel's insufficient facilitation of humanitarian aid in Gaza. This measure comes amidst broader international scrutiny of Israel's conduct in the conflict. 

Ukraine and NATO Rejected Istanbul Agreements to Inflict ‘Stategic Defeat’ of Russia According to Putin 

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on Thursday that Ukraine and the West rejected early peace agreements reached during talks in Istanbul in March 2022, aiming instead to secure a “strategic defeat” of Russia. Putin alleged that nearly all terms of a potential peace agreement were finalized with Kyiv representatives, but progress was halted after then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson allegedly instructed Ukrainians to continue fighting. Speaking at an economic forum in Vladivostok, Putin asserted that the war could have ended "long ago" if Kyiv had implemented the Istanbul agreement. He stated that Russia is open to negotiations based on those initial agreements, but not on new demands. Russian officials have frequently accused Ukraine of refusing to sign the Istanbul draft under UK pressure, a claim Boris Johnson has denied. Putin's remarks highlight ongoing tensions and differing narratives about the origins and prolongation of the conflict.

If US Allows Ukraine Missiles to Strike Deep Inside Russia, Kremlin Pledges ‘Appropriate’ Response 

The Kremlin has warned of an "appropriate" response if the U.S. lifts restrictions on Ukraine using American-supplied missiles to strike targets within Russia. This statement followed President Joe Biden's remarks that he was "working that out" regarding the potential policy change. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated that any U.S. move to allow such strikes would be met with a proportional reaction from Russia. He framed Russia's current offensive in Ukraine as a direct response to Western support for Kyiv, suggesting that further escalation could prompt additional Russian counteractions. The statement underscores the heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S. over the ongoing conflict and military support dynamics. 

 

  

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