END of SEPTEMBER SITREP SUPPORT
LEAD STORIES
Trump Defiantly Claims, ‘I WILL NEVER SURRENDER’ After Second Assassination Attempt on Golf Course in Palm Beach Florida
On Sunday September 15th, former President Donald Trump issued a defiant statement declaring his safety after a shooting incident at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida. Trump confirmed, “I AM SAFE AND WELL!” and vowed to continue his efforts undeterred, expressing gratitude to his supporters. The incident occurred when a gunman aimed a rifle through a fence at the golf club while Trump was nearby. Secret Service agents responded by firing at the suspect, who fled but was later apprehended by the Martin County Sheriff’s Office. The FBI is investigating the incident as an attempted assassination of Trump. A backpack and semi-automatic rifle, possibly an AK-47, were recovered at the scene, and a GoPro camera suggested the shooter might have intended to record the attack. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were briefed and relieved to hear Trump was unharmed. This event follows a July shooting at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Trump was targeted, resulting in one death and two injuries.
Clinton Claims ‘We need Criminal Penalties’ for ‘Misinformation’
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has urged legal action against Americans involved in spreading Russian election interference propaganda, advocating for both civil and criminal charges as a deterrent. In a recent MSNBC interview, Clinton stressed the need to indict Russians directly engaged in election interference, particularly those who supported former President Donald Trump in 2016. She also highlighted the role of American citizens in disseminating disinformation and emphasized that holding them accountable could help deter future misconduct. Clinton praised ongoing efforts by the U.S. State Department and Justice Department to uncover Russian influence but noted that much work remains to fully address the issue. She underscored the importance of safeguarding American elections from foreign interference, asserting that adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran should not be allowed to influence U.S. voting processes.
Harris Senior Advisor David Plouffe Previously Called for Extermination of Trump
In 2016, Kamala Harris senior adviser David Plouffe, a former Obama adviser, called for the "destruction" of Donald Trump and "his kind" in a post on X, resurfacing amid concerns over threats against the former president. Plouffe’s post, stating that Trump "must be destroyed thoroughly," has been highlighted by the Trump campaign following a second assassination attempt on Trump, where a gunman was stopped by Secret Service while aiming a rifle through a fence at Trump’s Florida golf course. This incident comes just two months after a previous attempt at a Pennsylvania rally, where a shooter grazed Trump's ear, killing one bystander and injuring two others. The Trump campaign criticized Plouffe’s involvement in Harris’ campaign, noting Democrats' longstanding claims that Trump is a threat to democracy and falsely labeling him as a dictator and rapist. The recent assassination attempts add to growing concerns about violence surrounding Trump's public appearances.
Biden DoJ Release Trump 2nd Assassin Letter to Public Including $150K Reward
Ryan Wesley Routh, who attempted to assassinate former President Donald Trump, wrote a letter admitting his failure and offering a $150,000 reward to anyone who completes the job. The letter, dropped off at a person's home, led law enforcement to find ammunition, phones, and other incriminating documents. Routh, an avid supporter of Ukraine and critic of Trump, had camped out near Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach for 12 hours before being spotted by a Secret Service agent on September 15. Although Routh was armed with an SKS-style rifle, he did not fire any shots, and Trump was unharmed. Routh faces federal firearms charges and remains in custody. He had previously posted about his intent and referenced a prior assassination attempt on Trump in July 2024. Prosecutors argue for his detention, citing the gravity of the situation and evidence of his plans. A detention hearing is scheduled for Monday, amid concerns over the potential for further violence following the release of his letter.
Alaska Sees Uptick in Naval Activity as US Gears Up for ‘Homeland Defense’
On Monday, a Russian-Chinese flotilla of nine warships transited the La Perouse Strait, heading toward the Northern Pacific Ocean amid heightened military activity in the region. The Japanese Defense Ministry reported that these vessels, sailing from the Sea of Japan to the Sea of Okhotsk, could reach the Aleutian Islands of Alaska if they continued northeastward. In response, the U.S. deployed the cruiser USS Lake Erie and destroyer USS Sterett for homeland defense operations in the Northern Pacific and the Aleutian Islands. The Lake Erie has been conducting operations in the area since September 18, while the Sterett has been patrolling since September 2. This naval activity coincides with the second phase of the Northern/Interaction-2024 exercise conducted by China and Russia, which involves multiple warships from both nations. The military presence of Russia and China near Alaska has been increasing, evidenced by recent bomber patrols and naval exercises, which have prompted the U.S. to bolster its defenses in the region, including conducting interceptions of Russian aircraft in the Alaska air defense zone.
Deep State Backs Harris with Endorsement from Over 700 Current and Former Gov Officials
Over 700 current and former U.S. government officials, including prominent figures like former CIA Director John Brennan and retired Air Force Gen. Michael Hayden, signed a letter endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, likening it to the 2020 letter that falsely claimed Hunter Biden’s laptop was Russian disinformation. Signatories also include Trump critic Alexander Vindman and MSNBC commentator Malcolm Nance. The letter praises Harris for her leadership in global diplomacy and military deterrence but does not address her role in the Afghanistan withdrawal. The focus shifts to denouncing former President Donald Trump, accusing him of endangering democracy and seeking dictatorial power. Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung dismissed the signatories as individuals who profited from foreign wars, contrasting Trump as the only modern president not to initiate new conflicts.
President Biden Says that He Delegated ‘Everything’ to VP Harris
President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that he has delegated "everything" as commander-in-chief to Vice President Kamala Harris, including both foreign and domestic policy responsibilities. This claim is significant as it conflicts with Harris's attempts to distance herself from the Biden-Harris administration's record, as she has emphasized her focus on new ideas and future-oriented policies in recent statements. Polling data shows that a majority of registered voters—57%—feel they are worse off under the current administration compared to their situation four years ago under former President Donald Trump, with only 25% rating the economy positively. During a recent campaign appearance, Biden implied that Harris is partly responsible for the administration's failures in areas like inflation and border security. His remarks complicate Harris’s campaign strategy, as she needs to balance promoting solutions for issues such as crime and inflation while also validating the administration’s policies to support her candidacy. This precarious position highlights the challenges Harris faces as she seeks to carve out her leadership identity.
Hurricane Helene Expect to Strengthen Before Making Landfall in the Panhandle of Florida
Hurricane Helene is projected to rapidly strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Florida's Big Bend coast on September 26, 2024. The National Hurricane Center warns of catastrophic storm surges potentially reaching 6 meters (20 feet), alongside destructive winds and life-threatening flash flooding, posing significant risks to the region. Residents in affected areas are urged to evacuate and finalize preparations as storm conditions are expected to begin early Thursday. Helene, currently a Category 2 hurricane, is forecast to generate hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall, leading to flash flooding across parts of northern Florida and the Southeast. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, with a Storm Surge Warning in effect for areas including Tampa Bay. As Helene moves northward at approximately 19 km/h (12 mph), significant inland impacts, including strong gusts and potential tornadoes, are anticipated. Rainfall accumulations of up to 450 mm (18 inches) could occur, increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding and landslides, especially in the southern Appalachians.
BORDER CRISIS
Map Shows Potential Migrant Areas in US Hinting at ‘Great Job Replacement’
Bloomberg has released a detailed map revealing the spread of migrants across the U.S. in 2023, based on immigration court data. The map highlights significant clusters of new migrant populations, especially in the Midwest, Rust Belt, and major metro areas in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. According to the analysis, 72% of the migrants settled in counties that voted for Biden in 2020, with swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia receiving 12% of the total. The report suggests that migrants are being placed in small towns, potentially displacing blue-collar workers. An example cited is Charleroi, Pennsylvania, where a 2,000% increase in the Haitian migrant population has reportedly replaced local workers at food-packing plants, leading to economic strain on the community. The broader theme suggests that native-born workers are being displaced by migrants, a phenomenon described as the "Great Job Replacement." The report has sparked criticism of Bloomberg's coverage and its portrayal of former President Trump’s stance on immigration.
US Border Agents Find Weapons of War Near Southern Border to be Used by Cartels
Violence has surged in northwestern Mexico as rival factions of the Sinaloa drug cartel, known as the "Mayos" and the "Chapos," clash amid increasing concerns of spillover effects into the U.S. This escalation follows the July arrests of Joaquín Guzmán López and Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, which have intensified fighting. Recently, U.S. Border Patrol agents discovered a cache of weapons, including four RPGs and eight improvised explosive devices (IEDs), near the Arizona border, prompting alerts about a "drastic escalation" in cartel weaponry. Reports indicate that armed individuals have fled into the U.S. seeking safety as the violence escalates. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has blamed the U.S. for this situation; however, U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar countered that the violence is not America's fault. This turmoil highlights the growing militarization of drug cartels as the Biden-Harris administration maintains an open southern border, amid rising concerns about Venezuelan prison gangs and a notable increase in encounters with suspected terrorists at the border, which the administration has allegedly downplayed.
BOHICA!
Egypt to Get $1.3BN in Military Aid from US
The U.S. State Department has unconditionally released $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt, citing the country’s cooperation on mediating a Gaza ceasefire and contributing to U.S. security priorities. This decision follows previous conditions tied to Egypt’s human rights record, which had resulted in aid being withheld. While Egypt has been criticized for suppressing dissent under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the State Department acknowledged recent progress, including judicial reforms and the release of 950 political prisoners since September 2023. Egypt's involvement in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, as well as efforts to mediate a ceasefire in Sudan, were also highlighted as factors in the aid approval. Despite these steps, NGOs report that Egypt still holds tens of thousands of political prisoners. Last year, the U.S. suspended around $95 million in aid over human rights concerns, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent announcement affirms a full allocation of funds, reinforcing Egypt’s role as a key U.S. ally in the region.
Officials Say Ukraine Can Produce More Weapons but Need More Funding
Ukraine is eager to expand its domestic weapons production but faces financial constraints, officials stated during a Kyiv conference on Saturday, calling for increased foreign investment in its defense sector. While Ukraine has primarily relied on Soviet-era stockpiles and Western military aid in its defense against Russia, it has also been developing its own weapons production capabilities. Oleksandr Kamyshin, a presidential advisor, noted that Ukraine has the capacity to produce $20 billion worth of defense equipment but can only fund $7 billion from its own budget. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov emphasized the critical need for investment to boost production. Former U.S. General David Petraeus suggested using some of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets as a potential funding solution. Ukraine’s defense industry has made recent advances, including the successful testing of a domestically-produced ballistic missile and the deployment of a long-range "rocket drone" called Palianytsia, showcasing its growing military capabilities.
House Continuing Resolution Bill Fails After Republican Opposition
On Wednesday, Speaker Mike Johnson's attempt to attach the SAVE Act to a six-month continuing resolution (CR) failed in the House, with the bill being defeated 202-220. The SAVE Act, which would require proof of citizenship for federal elections, faced significant opposition from Republicans. Fourteen Republicans voted against the bill, two voted "present," and only three Democrats supported it. Key objections included concerns that the measure would negatively impact defense spending and the preference among some Republicans for a shorter, three-month CR to enable a more substantial omnibus bill later. Conservatives were also critical of maintaining current spending levels and priorities. Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) criticized the bill for adding to the national debt without cutting spending and for funding policies he opposes. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) called the process "political theater" and urged against supporting the bill. Johnson had previously withdrawn the bill due to widespread Republican dissent.
After Failed Mike Johnson Gambit, US Congress Passes Stop-Gap Spending Bill
On Wednesday, Congress approved a stop-gap spending bill that will fund the government through December 20, effectively pushing back the spending deadline. This continuing resolution (CR) maintains current federal spending levels, providing temporary financial stability. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) initially aimed to include the SAVE Act, which would have mandated proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, but after failing to attach it, opted to move forward with the CR alone. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) expressed satisfaction with the outcome, stating that the agreement prevented an unnecessary government shutdown that could disrupt families' lives. Johnson's earlier attempts to leverage a longer-term funding strategy, including a three-month CR tied to the SAVE Act, faced internal resistance within his party, leading to discontent among various factions. Some representatives, like Thomas Massie, criticized Johnson's strategy as creating a government funding crisis just before Christmas, potentially pressuring members to approve a bill they hadn’t fully reviewed. The legislation now awaits President Joe Biden's signature.
Another $8BM in Military Aid Announced by Biden
U.S. President Joe Biden announced over $8 billion in military assistance for Ukraine during President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's visit, reinforcing America's commitment to helping Kyiv "win this war" against Russian aggression. The package includes the initial shipment of the Joint Standoff Weapon, a precision-guided glide bomb with a range of up to 81 miles, allowing Ukraine to strike Russian forces from safer distances. While Biden emphasized support for Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February 2022, he refrained from permitting the use of U.S. missiles for deeper strikes into Russia. The aid package, comprising $5.5 billion to be allocated before the fiscal year's end and $2.4 billion from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, aims to enhance Ukraine’s air defense, unmanned systems, and munitions. Biden also plans to refurbish and provide an additional Patriot air defense battery and expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots. Despite bipartisan support for Ukraine, Republican criticism of Zelenskiy's visit has increased, leading to investigations and calls for accountability. Trump's remarks against Zelenskiy reflect growing tensions within the Republican Party regarding ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine.
Secretary of State Blinken Announces $375M Weapons Package for Ukraine
The United States announced a $375 million military aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended a UN summit in New York. The package, revealed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, includes air-to-ground munitions, HIMARS ammunition, armored vehicles, and anti-armor systems, aimed at bolstering Ukraine's defense against Russia. Blinken emphasized the urgency of delivering these weapons. President Joe Biden told Zelensky that a surge in U.S. military assistance would be announced the next day, ahead of Zelensky’s scheduled visit to the White House. The U.S. has provided over $50 billion in military support since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Zelensky also raised his "Plan for Victory," which seeks U.S. approval for Ukraine to use long-range Western weapons for strikes within Russia. While Biden previously considered lifting restrictions on such weapons, there was no confirmation on the issue during their meeting. Further discussions on military support are expected during Zelensky’s visit to Washington on Thursday.
Germany to Provide $445M in Military Aid Package for Ukraine
Germany will provide Ukraine with an additional €400 million ($445 million) in military aid to bolster Kyiv's defense capabilities, according to government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit. The funding, approved by the German parliament, will be used to purchase air defense systems, tanks, drones, ammunition, and spare parts to strengthen Ukraine's armed forces. This move comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Western allies to increase support amid intensified Russian strikes on Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Since the war began in February 2022, Germany has delivered or committed €28 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine, including Leopard 2 tanks, Gepard anti-aircraft systems, Marder combat vehicles, and advanced air defense systems like Patriot and IRIS-T.
WAR (and rumors of war)
US MILITARY
First ‘Gender Neutral’ Submarine Unveiled by US Navy
The U.S. Navy has commissioned the USS New Jersey as its first gender-neutral submarine, designed for a gender-integrated crew. The Virginia-class submarine, with nearly 135 personnel, was commissioned at Naval Weapons Station Earle, New Jersey. Cmdr. Steve Halle, the USS New Jersey’s commanding officer, praised the crew’s professionalism and diversity, attributing their success to crew integration. Following the Navy’s 2010 decision to allow women on submarines, changes were made to address privacy concerns in the tight living quarters. Vice Adm. Robert Gaucher highlighted that the submarine force has become fully gender-integrated, with the number of female officers doubling and enlisted female sailors tripling in recent years. The USS New Jersey features gender-neutral accommodations, including enhanced privacy in sleeping quarters and bathrooms, and adjustments to equipment for the diverse needs of the crew. All future Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines and nuclear-powered attack submarines will incorporate these gender-neutral designs. This move reflects the Navy's ongoing commitment to inclusivity in its submarine force.
BAE Systems Gets Order for Over 200 Bradley A4s to Replenish US Army
The U.S. Army has awarded BAE Systems a $440 million contract to produce over 200 Bradley A4 infantry fighting vehicles, replenishing part of the more than 300 Bradleys sent to Ukraine. The Bradley A4 retains the vehicle’s original design for logistical efficiency while offering enhanced performance for various combat scenarios, including urban and open warfare. Key upgrades include improved suspension, track mobility, power management, and the ability to integrate advanced technologies like the Active Protection System and upgraded communications. These features ensure better situational awareness, network connectivity, and communication within Armored Brigade Combat Teams. The contract supports continued battlefield readiness for U.S. and allied forces worldwide.
$6.7BN Deal with General Dynamics to Build US Navy Replenishment Ships
General Dynamics NASSCO has signed a $6.75 billion contract with the U.S. Navy to construct eight additional John Lewis-class replenishment oiler vessels, adding to the nine previously ordered. These auxiliary ships will support naval operations by providing fuel to other vessels, enabling them to remain at sea for extended periods. Each ship has a displacement of 49,850 tons and can carry 162,000 barrels of oil. The contract will primarily be executed in California, with completion expected by January 2035. The deal follows a "block buy" approach, aimed at saving up to $491 million by streamlining procurement. NASSCO delivered the first ship in 2022 and is currently building two more. The agreement also includes a shipbuilding capability preservation clause, encouraging shipbuilders to seek commercial contracts to reduce Navy expenses. General Dynamics NASSCO President Dave Carver expressed gratitude for the Navy's support and the opportunity to continue the partnership.
Raytheon Awarded $1.19BN Missile Modification Contract by US Government
The U.S. Department of Defense has awarded a $1.19 billion contract modification to Raytheon Technologies for the production of Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM). This contract includes the production of additional AMRAAM missiles, telemetry systems, spares, and engineering support, expanding on a previous $1.15 billion contract from 2023 for AMRAAM Production Lot 37. The deal supplies the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and partner nations through foreign military sales. Countries set to receive the missiles include Bahrain, Bulgaria, Canada, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Norway, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the UK. The production is expected to be completed by December 31, 2028.
After Rise in Russian Military Activity, US Army Deploys to Alaskan Island
In response to increased Russian military activity near American territory, the U.S. military has deployed approximately 130 soldiers and mobile rocket launchers to Shemya Island in the Aleutian chain, located 1,200 miles southwest of Anchorage. This move, part of a “force projection operation,” also included sending two High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). The deployment follows a week of heightened Russian and Chinese military presence, with eight Russian planes and four navy vessels, including two submarines, approaching Alaska. The planes operated within the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone but did not enter U.S. airspace. Although the Pentagon has downplayed the threat, citing ongoing monitoring and preparedness, U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan has called for a strengthened military presence in the Aleutians and advocated for reopening the Naval Air Facility Adak. The increased activity underscores the strategic significance of the Arctic in U.S.-Russia-China relations and recent joint military drills by Russia and China.
Houthis Score Another Q-9 Reaper Drone Kill According to the Pentagon
A U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone crashed near Yemen, according to the Pentagon, following claims by Iran-backed Houthi rebels that they had downed several such drones in recent days. Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder confirmed the crash, stating it was under investigation, but refuted the Houthi claim of downing 10 U.S. drones, calling it inaccurate. This incident follows a February confirmation that a Houthi missile brought down another MQ-9 off Yemen’s coast. The Houthis have intensified attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November, targeting vessels they claim are linked to Israel in support of Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, ships from various countries, not directly involved in the conflict, have also been targeted. The MQ-9 Reaper, a versatile drone used for reconnaissance and strikes, remains a significant asset in U.S. military operations in the region.
USS Truman Aircraft Carrier and Support Vessels Deploy to Middle East from Norfolk, VA
The USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier departed from Naval Station Norfolk for a deployment expected to last at least six months. The ship's strike group, including Carrier Air Wing 1, guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg, and destroyers USS Stout and USS Jason Dunham, will soon head to the 6th Fleet's area of responsibility, covering the Atlantic and Mediterranean seas. This marks the first deployment for many sailors, including Machinist’s Mate Gianna Rodriguez, whose emotional farewell with her family was shared by others gathered to say goodbye. The Truman’s deployment may include operations in the Red Sea, where U.S. forces have been battling drone and missile threats from Iran-backed Houthis. The crew has trained for multiple missions, drawing lessons from previous carrier deployments in the region. The Truman is equipped with 90 aircraft, including F/A-18 fighter jets and electronic warfare planes. As families watched the ship sail away, tugboats guided it off the pier, leaving loved ones behind until the ship’s return next year.
Aircraft Carrier Group Scrambles for Fuel After US Navy Oiler Runs Aground Near Oman
The US Navy oiler USNS Big Horn ran aground and partially flooded off the coast of Oman, jeopardizing fuel supply to the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group. Reports indicate damage to the ship’s rudder post, and while there are no injuries or environmental issues, the incident leaves the Navy scrambling for a commercial oil tanker to deliver jet fuel, as Big Horn is the only oiler in the Middle East. Retrofitting a commercial tanker for naval replenishment operations presents logistical challenges, including necessary equipment modifications and crew training in complex refueling procedures. The Navy's existing oiler fleet is already under strain, with plans to lay up 17 supply ships due to recruitment difficulties. Although new John Lewis-class oilers are being introduced, they face deployment delays due to ongoing issues. The grounding underscores a broader crisis in the Navy’s tanker capacity, which could critically impact military operations, particularly amid increasing tensions in the Pacific. Urgent action is needed to bolster a U.S.-flagged fleet capable of supporting wartime logistics.
As Violence Continues to Surge, US is Sending More Troops to the Middle East
The U.S. is deploying additional troops to the Middle East in response to escalating violence between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, raising concerns of a broader regional conflict. Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to provide specific details but confirmed the deployment as a precautionary measure. The U.S. currently has around 40,000 troops in the region, and the aircraft carrier Truman, along with two destroyers and a cruiser, has set sail for the Mediterranean. The U.S. State Department has urged American citizens to leave Lebanon due to the unpredictable nature of the conflict, as Israeli forces continue significant airstrikes targeting Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Lebanese civilians to evacuate ahead of further operations. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has held talks with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, pushing for a ceasefire to avoid a wider conflict. The U.S. military presence is aimed at defending Israel and protecting U.S. and allied assets in the region, with warships and fighter jets strategically positioned.
FORTRESS EUROPE
NATO General Warns of WW3 with Russia While Preparing Mass Evacuation and Rescue Plans
NATO is mobilizing resources and strategic plans, anticipating a possible large-scale conflict with Russia, according to Lieutenant-General Alexander Sollfrank, head of NATO’s logistics command. With tensions high after two and a half years of war in Ukraine, NATO is preparing for worst-case scenarios, including medical evacuations and logistical support for troops. Sollfrank highlighted the increased danger posed by Russian air defenses, necessitating the use of specialized vehicles and trains for evacuating casualties. NATO's ongoing Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises involve 90,000 troops and are designed to test the alliance's readiness across land, air, sea, and cyber domains. European nations like Germany and Poland are ramping up defense spending, while Poland is implementing mass civilian evacuation plans. NATO plans to urge its 32 member states to develop comprehensive civil defense strategies in response to potential threats from Russia, reinforcing the alliance’s collective security framework under Article 5.
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
Hezbollah's 9/11, Israel Uses Pagers to Hit Hezbollah Soldiers Wounding 2700+
A covert Mossad operation caused chaos in southern Beirut on Tuesday when telecommunications devices used by Hezbollah members, including pagers, exploded, killing nine and injuring over 2,750. Lebanese authorities, alongside Hezbollah, blamed Israel for the attack, although Israel has not officially commented. The explosions, which affected Hezbollah operatives and civilians, were reportedly triggered remotely, possibly by tampered batteries containing explosives. The son of a Hezbollah MP was among the dead, and Iran's ambassador to Lebanon was injured. The blasts have been described as one of Hezbollah's most significant security breaches and are seen as a prelude to a larger conflict. The US denied involvement, while Lebanese hospitals are overwhelmed with casualties. Israeli media speculated that preparations for a third war with Hezbollah are underway. Amid fears of escalating violence, airlines have canceled flights to Lebanon, and schools have closed. This incident may mark the start of a broader anti-Hezbollah campaign, with Hezbollah likely to escalate in response.
List of Hezbollah-held items that exploded in Devices Attack:
- Smartphones
- Radios (including car radios)
- Laptops
- Walkie talkies
- Home intercoms
- Home solar energy systems
- Batteries
Pagers Used in Attack were Manufactured by Israel
The New York Times has revealed that the pagers used in the recent explosions in Lebanon were manufactured by BAC Consulting, a Hungary-based company operating as an Israeli shell entity. The company produced regular pagers but separately manufactured the explosive-laden devices intended for Hezbollah. These pagers, shipped to Lebanon in 2022, were ordered following Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s directive to use pagers instead of cell phones. Nasrallah had banned cell phones from meetings to avoid Israeli surveillance and mandated that Hezbollah officers carry pagers. The pagers, which were designed to explode after being activated, were viewed by Israeli intelligence as strategic tools for causing chaos. On Tuesday, this design led to simultaneous explosions that killed at least eight Hezbollah fighters and numerous civilians, injuring many more. The use of shell companies and the strategic deployment of these devices underscore the high-stakes nature of the conflict and the lengths to which parties will go to gain an advantage.
Diplomat Discloses He Backed 21-Day Hezbollah Truce Before it was Announced
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas presented a 12-point plan for post-war Gaza management, welcoming international input. The plan calls for a permanent ceasefire and an end to Israeli settler attacks in the West Bank. Abbas demands humanitarian aid for Gaza, a full Israeli withdrawal without buffer zones, and the return of displaced Palestinians. He rejects any relocation plans involving Egypt or Jordan. He insists on protecting the UNRWA, despite accusations of Hamas infiltration, and seeks international protection for Palestinians. Abbas advocates for Palestinian governance over Gaza, continuing national reform, and recognition of the Palestinian Authority as the sole representative of all Palestinians. He also calls for full UN membership for Palestine, implementation of the UN resolution for an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories, and the convening of an international peace conference. Abbas emphasizes the importance of international peacekeeping forces to safeguard both Israelis and Palestinians, urging global support for the plan to guarantee its success.
As Netanyahu Greenlights Truce Talks, Biden Warns ‘All-Out’ Middle East War is Still Possible
President Joe Biden warned that fighting between Israel and Hezbollah risks escalating into an "all-out war," as diplomats work to negotiate a temporary ceasefire. An anonymous Israeli official revealed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was open to a deal, provided Israeli civilians could return home, though Israeli leaders remained doubtful about the ceasefire's success. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi announced preparations for a ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the mobilization of two additional reserve brigades to reinforce Israel’s northern front. Biden, speaking on ABC’s *The View*, emphasized the possibility of reaching a settlement that could reshape the region, suggesting that a ceasefire with Hezbollah could potentially lead to a broader cessation of hostilities, including in Gaza. Biden expressed his commitment to using his full diplomatic efforts to achieve a resolution, noting that there is regional interest in change and stability.
US-Backed Lebanon Ceasefire Proposal Rejected by Israel
Israel has firmly rejected proposals for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, defying calls from allies, including the United States, for a three-week halt in fighting to facilitate diplomatic efforts. Foreign Minister Israel Katz stated, "There will be no ceasefire in the north," emphasizing the intent to continue military operations against Hezbollah until victory is achieved and residents can safely return home. This announcement dashed hopes for a quick resolution, particularly after Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed optimism for a ceasefire amidst significant displacement of civilians. The ongoing conflict, which has seen the heaviest fighting in nearly two decades, raises fears of a new Israeli ground offensive. In recent airstrikes, over 600 people in Lebanon have been killed, while Hezbollah has launched hundreds of missiles into Israel, targeting areas including Tel Aviv. As thousands of Lebanese seek refuge in schools, the humanitarian situation worsens, with aid organizations distributing essentials. The relentless violence has prompted neighboring countries to prepare for potential evacuations of their citizens amid escalating tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Russian Air Base Housing Nuclear Bombers Rocked by Explosions
Overnight, the Engels-2 air base in the Saratov region, Russia, experienced powerful explosions, reportedly targeting the base housing Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers capable of nuclear and conventional strikes. This base, located about 500 miles southeast of Moscow, has been a recurring target throughout the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian forces, using long-range drones, have previously struck the base, which plays a key role in Russia’s missile attacks on Ukraine. Footage of the blasts was shared on social media platforms, including Telegram, with Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko noting the significance of the base in Russia’s military operations. The cause of the explosions remains unclear. This attack follows previous incidents, including a March strike claimed by Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and earlier drone attacks that resulted in casualties and damage. In response, Russia has implemented measures to shield its aircraft, such as covering bomber wings with car tires, to defend against further drone strikes.
Russia’s Biggest Ammo Storage Facility Hit by Ukrainian Drone Attack
Satellite imagery has documented significant damage from a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian missile and ammunition facility in Toropets, Tver oblast. Conducted around 3:30 a.m. on Wednesday by Ukraine's Security Service, Main Military Intelligence Directorate, and Special Operations Forces, the strike targeted the 107th Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) arsenal. The explosion, reportedly registering as a small earthquake, destroyed the facility, which housed Iskander and Tochka-U missiles, anti-aircraft systems, and potentially North Korean KN-23 missiles. Video and satellite images showed extensive flames and smoke, while the Institute for the Study of War noted that such attacks pressure Russia’s military operations. Ukrainian drone strikes are seen as weakening Russia's long-range missile capabilities and could force a dispersion of ammunition storage, similar to impacts observed in 2022. Russian military bloggers criticized the facility's construction and management, implicating former Deputy Minister of Defense Dmitry Bulgakov, who was arrested in July.
Russia Set to have 2nd Largest Army After Putin Orders Third Troop Expansion
President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to increase Russia’s military by 180,000 troops, bringing the total active servicemen to 1.5 million and the overall armed forces to over 2.3 million. This marks the third expansion since the Ukraine war began, following increases of 137,000 in August 2022 and 170,000 in December 2023. This latest expansion underscores Russia's commitment to maintaining its offensive in the Donbass and sends a strong message to NATO amid discussions about allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian targets. Currently, Russia’s army, with nearly 700,000 troops in Ukraine, is the second largest globally, behind China. Despite Ukrainian efforts to force Russia to redeploy troops from Donetsk through offensives such as Kursk, Russia continues to make incremental gains in eastern Ukraine. This expansion reflects both ongoing military needs and strategic posturing in response to international pressure and battlefield developments.
INDO-PACIFIC
China Tests ICBM for First Time in Forty Years, Claims it is ‘Routine’
China's recent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch into the Pacific Ocean sparked regional protests, though Beijing called it a "legitimate and routine" test. The missile, carrying a dummy warhead, marked China’s first such test in four decades. Japan and Taiwan condemned the launch, with Japan expressing concerns about not receiving prior notification. Beijing defended the test, emphasizing its adherence to a "no first use" nuclear policy and claiming its nuclear strategy is defensive. China denied seeking an arms race and vowed to keep its nuclear arsenal minimal for national security. However, the launch, which may have involved a Dongfeng-31 AG missile, signals China's growing military strength. The Pentagon noted China’s expanding nuclear capabilities, estimating over 500 warheads as of May 2023, with projections to surpass 1,000 by 2030. Neighboring countries, including Australia and New Zealand, expressed concern, while the U.S. acknowledged receiving prior notice. Analysts believe the test aimed to assert China’s military strength amid rising tensions with the U.S. and its allies.
Chinese Navy has All Three Aircraft Carriers at Sea for the First Time
China's growing naval power was highlighted by the simultaneous deployment of three aircraft carriers, including its first domestically produced carrier, Fujian, marking a significant milestone for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian were all at sea by mid-September 2024, with two operational carriers in the Western Pacific. These actions are part of an increase in Chinese naval activity, especially around Taiwan, where Beijing has ramped up military drills. Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, warned that China’s escalating maneuvers make it harder to predict potential invasions or blockades, with U.S. officials speculating an offensive could occur by 2027. China’s presence in the South China Sea and the Sea of Japan has also provoked tensions with regional powers, with recent incidents involving Philippine and Japanese airspace violations. As China strengthens its naval capabilities, particularly its carrier force, these deployments suggest a growing ability to challenge foreign military intervention and project power across contested areas in the Indo-Pacific.
GEOPOLITICS
Germany is Pausing New Arms Exports to Israel
Germany has paused new arms exports to Israel amid legal challenges regarding humanitarian concerns. In 2023, Germany approved arms sales to Israel totaling 326.5 million euros, a significant increase from 2022. However, from January to August 2024, approvals dropped to just 14.5 million euros, with only 32,449 euros designated as "weapons of war." The Economy Ministry is withholding further export licenses while addressing legal cases alleging that such exports may violate humanitarian law. The German government is defending itself in two legal proceedings—one at the International Court of Justice and one in Berlin—claiming no new weapons have been exported since the October 7 Hamas attacks, apart from spare parts for existing contracts. The ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has resulted in significant casualties and a humanitarian crisis, has intensified scrutiny of arms exports. This situation mirrors similar actions by other European allies, reflecting a broader debate over arms sales to Israel amidst concerns about international humanitarian law violations.
‘Just as They Stopped Hitler, So Should Netanyahu Be Stopped’ says Erdogan
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, addressing the UN General Assembly, sharply criticized Israel for its actions in Gaza, accusing the Israeli government of committing ethnic cleansing and genocide against Palestinians. He urged the international community, particularly the UN, to fulfill its responsibilities towards Palestinians and condemned the Security Council for inaction. Erdogan accused Israel of attacking civilian areas, turning Gaza into a "graveyard for women and children." He criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, comparing him to Hitler, and called for his actions to be stopped by "humanity." Erdogan also referenced a ceasefire proposal, claiming Hamas had accepted it while accusing Israel of delaying peace efforts. His remarks followed a speech by U.S. President Joe Biden, who blamed Hamas and Hezbollah for the conflict, though he also advocated for a ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to address the situation later in the week amidst escalating tensions with Hezbollah.