MID-AUGUST SITREP SUPPORT
LEAD STORIES
Germany Now Home to Nearly 1-In-20 of All Syrians, Over Half Receive Welfare
As of the end of 2023, nearly 972,000 Syrians live in Germany, a significant increase from just 60,000 in 2014. This growth reflects a 16-fold rise since the 2015/16 migrant crisis. Despite promises of integration, over half of these Syrians, 513,534, are receiving welfare benefits, contributing to Germany's record-high debt, with nearly €50 billion spent on migrants in 2023. Similarly, the Afghan population in Germany has surged to 419,410, with about 197,551 on social welfare. High rates of criminality among Afghans, including a notable frequency of serious offenses, have exacerbated tensions. New citizenship laws set to take effect will facilitate naturalization for long-term residents. Despite the exodus of Syrians due to the civil war, Syria's population is rising due to births and remigration. The overall migrant situation continues to strain Germany's resources and public services.
Dow Tanks, Drops 1,000 Points Amid Fears of Global Recession
The U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points, or about 2.5%, by mid-morning. The NASDAQ fell 4.1%, and the S&P 500 dropped 3.3%, mirroring a global market downturn that included a 12% drop in Japan’s Nikkei 225. This plunge followed a disappointing Bureau of Labor Statistics report indicating July's U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% and non-farm job additions were only 114,000, well below the anticipated 185,000. CFRA Research's Sam Stovall noted that the market correction was triggered by these weaker-than-expected economic data. Technology and AI stocks suffered particularly steep losses, contributing to a potentially record-setting poor August for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla saw a combined $753 billion loss in market capitalization. Analysts from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have adjusted their recession forecasts, with Trump attributing the downturn to the Biden-Harris administration.
US CBP Warns Agents that Iran, Proxies May Try to Cross Border to Attack US
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has issued a stark warning that Iran or its proxies may attempt to smuggle operatives, money, or materials across U.S. borders to execute a terrorist attack, according to a memo obtained by Just the News. This alert follows recent Iran-backed Hezbollah attacks on Israeli children and Israel's assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, heightening concerns of similar reprisals against the West. The memo urges CBP personnel to adopt a heightened security posture and collaborate with other law enforcement agencies to prevent potential attacks. It also highlights the threat from the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA), which has reportedly moved assets across the U.S. border and may target law enforcement. The memo's release coincides with growing terror threats, including the cancellation of Taylor Swift concerts in Austria over terrorism concerns and the arrest of a Pakistani man in a plot linked to Iran to assassinate U.S. political figures, including former President Trump. National security expert Walid Phares warned that Iran may be leveraging chaos to force favorable deals with the Biden administration.
Iranian-Linked Pakistani Man Charged in Potential Assassination Plot Against Trump and Other US Officials
Asif Merchant, a 46-year-old Pakistani man allegedly linked to Iran, was arrested and charged with "murder-for-hire" related to a plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump and several U.S. officials. According to an unsealed criminal complaint, Merchant began planning the assassination after spending time in Iran and traveled to the U.S. to recruit individuals for the scheme. He reportedly sought help in hiring hitmen and orchestrating distractions like protests. Merchant’s plot included stealing documents, staging protests, and killing a politician or government official. He was apprehended on July 12 while attempting to leave the U.S. The arrest follows heightened concerns about Iran’s potential retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Soleimani. The Department of Justice, supported by Attorney General Merrick Garland, emphasized its commitment to countering threats from authoritarian regimes targeting American officials. The criminal complaint was revealed shortly after an unrelated assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania.
Biden ‘Not Confident’ of a Peaceful Transition of Power in US After November Election
In an interview with CBS News, former President Joe Biden expressed concerns about the potential lack of a peaceful transfer of power following the 2024 presidential election, regardless of whether the winner is a Democrat or Republican. Biden, who withdrew from the race in July, voiced doubts about a smooth transition, citing former President Donald Trump's inflammatory rhetoric. He criticized the public for not taking Trump's comments about a "bloodbath" seriously, suggesting they reflect a dangerous mindset. Biden was referring to a controversial March speech by Trump, who later claimed the term was about potential economic impacts from Chinese competition, not political violence. This statement comes amid rising political tensions, including a recent failed assassination attempt on Trump and the resignation of Secret Service head Kimberly Cheatle following the incident. Biden also highlighted the need for reduced political hostility, noting that Trump's rhetoric and recent events have exacerbated divisions.
Mechanical Issue Causes Trump’s Plane to Divert on Way to Montana Rally
Former President Donald Trump’s airplane was diverted on Friday due to a mechanical issue, forcing an unscheduled landing in Billings, Montana, instead of Bozeman, where Trump was scheduled to hold a rally for GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy. The plane landed safely at Billings-Logan International Airport, about 150 miles from the rally site. Trump then used another private jet to reach Bozeman, delaying the start of the rally by an hour and a half. In a video posted on social media, Trump did not mention the mechanical issue, instead expressing his admiration for Montana and emphasizing his support for Sheehy. The diverted plane, Trump Force One, is a Boeing 757 equipped with luxurious features, which Trump has previously praised for its efficiency in his work as a "worker guy." Despite the delay, Trump continued with his plans to support Sheehy and attend fundraisers in the state.
Lindsey Graham Suggests Retired US F-16 Pilots Fly Ukraine’s F-16s
During his visit to Kyiv, Senator Lindsey Graham suggested that retired pilots from NATO member states could be hired to fly the F-16 fighter jets donated to Ukraine. Graham proposed this idea to help Ukraine utilize the advanced aircraft while its own pilots undergo training. The senator did not specify U.S. pilots but indicated that NATO retirees could assist in the interim. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had long advocated for these advanced jets to bolster Ukraine's defense against Russia. Recently, Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that NATO allies began transferring F-16s to Ukraine, with some already spotted in the southern Kherson region. Although Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium pledged over 60 F-16s, Ukraine may receive fewer jets than expected this year. Greece also plans to decommission and sell older F-16s to the U.S. for potential upgrade and transfer to Ukraine, as it modernizes its own fleet.
Pro-Palestinians Toss Smoke Bombs, Crash Harris Event in New York
Pro-Palestinian protesters disrupted a Democratic support event in Harlem, New York, on Wednesday night, causing significant disorder. The event, which featured prominent politicians like Mayor Eric Adams, Governor Kathy Hochul, and Attorney General Letitia James, was repeatedly interrupted by demonstrators protesting Israel's actions in Gaza. The protesters, who gathered outside the event with drums, music, and banners, also broke into the venue, hurling smoke bombs and chanting slogans. Adams, known for his strong support of Israel, addressed the protesters, urging them to focus on voting in the upcoming elections. The protest, which highlighted internal divisions within the Democratic Party, eventually turned violent outside the venue, leaving the politicians visibly shaken as the event came to an abrupt end.
Secret Service Impersonator Spotted Checking Bags at JD Vance Event in Detroit
On August 7, a man impersonating a Secret Service agent was seen at a JD Vance event in Detroit, Michigan. The individual was wearing a Secret Service patch on an armored vest issued by a different federal agency. RealClearInvestigations reporter Susan Crabtree confirmed the misappropriation of the patch with the Secret Service, which acknowledged the issue and stated that corrective action and new guidelines on the use of agency insignias have been implemented. Crabtree identified the impersonator as a Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) special agent, who, while assisting with security tasks, does not have a direct protective role for the Secret Service. The incident raised concerns about security vulnerabilities, particularly following past incidents of presidential threats. Critics argue that the ease of impersonation and lack of specialized training for non-Secret Service agents in security roles pose significant risks, undermining the ability of actual Secret Service agents to maintain effective security and identify genuine personnel.
BORDER CRISIS
Massachusetts Predicts Migrant Shelter Costs to Exceed $1 Billion for the Next Several Years
Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey's administration anticipates spending over $1 billion on the state's emergency shelter system for fiscal year 2025, exceeding the initial $915 million estimate. This increase reflects the continued high demand for shelter services for migrants and local families, with costs not expected to decline after fiscal 2025. The state budget includes $325 million for shelters and relies on $175 million in one-time pandemic funds, with concerns about a $470 million funding gap. Measures like a five-day stay limit at overflow shelters and prioritizing Massachusetts residents have been implemented to manage demand. The Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance warns that reliance on pandemic-era funds poses a "fiscal time bomb," and calls for prioritizing state residents in shelter allocations. The administration's recent spending includes $793 million as of mid-June, with expectations that it could reach $932 million for fiscal year 2024. Republican lawmakers express concern over the unsustainable nature of the current system.
Poll Finds that Majority Support Trump’s Promise to Enact ‘Largest Deportation’ in US History
The latest Harvard-Harris poll reveals substantial support for former President Donald Trump’s proposals, including a plan for "the largest deportation operation in American history," which garners 62% support. Additionally, 73% support Trump's promise to "seal the border and stop the migrant invasion," and 83% back his plan to "stop outsourcing and turn the U.S. into a manufacturing superpower." The poll highlights immigration and inflation as top voter concerns, with Trump’s immigration policies resonating strongly in light of perceived failures of the current administration. Conducted online from July 26-28, 2024, among 2,196 registered voters, the survey shows that Trump's policies align with a broader consensus for stricter immigration measures, contrasting with progressive and business interests advocating for continued migration. The findings reinforce prior polls showing significant public backing for reduced immigration and stricter enforcement measures. The poll's margin of error is ±2.1%, and results reflect a shift towards mainstream acceptance of tough immigration policies amid ongoing debates about national security and economic impacts.
‘At Least 99’ Illegal Aliens on Terror Watchlist Released into US by Biden-Harris Administration
A new congressional report reveals that the Biden-Harris administration has released at least 99 illegal aliens from the terrorist watchlist into the U.S., amid a historic surge in illegal immigration. Between fiscal years 2021 and 2023, over 250 such individuals were encountered by Border Patrol at the southwest border, with 34 still in DHS custody but not yet removed. These individuals hailed from 36 countries, including several known for Islamic terrorism. The report highlights a June 2024 incident where eight ISIS suspects, including Tajik nationals, were arrested. Some had used the CBP One app to enter the U.S., contradicting Secretary Mayorkas’s claims about its vetting capabilities. The findings underscore concerns about security lapses amid the ongoing immigration crisis.
Only 10% of Illegal Aliens Registered to the Biden-Harris Deportation Program Have Actually Been Deported
The Biden administration's Family Expedited Removal Program, launched in May 2023 to expedite deportations of families who entered the U.S. illegally, has deported only about 2,600 of the 24,000 enrolled participants, according to internal data reported by the New York Post. Over 3,600 immigrants in the program are currently unaccounted for. Critics, including Republican Rep. Mark Green, argue that this low deportation rate reflects the administration's failure to enforce immigration laws effectively. The program, intended to streamline deportations while keeping families together, has faced criticism from both progressives and immigrant advocacy groups. Meanwhile, the administration's approach to illegal immigration has focused more on expanding legal pathways, such as immigration parole, rather than bolstering border security. This includes the recent suspension of the CHNV parole program, which had faced allegations of fraud. Green has called for the immediate termination of the CHNV program, citing it as evidence of the administration's mismanagement of immigration policies.
BOHICA!
Ukraine’s Foreign Debt Payments to be Suspended by President Zelensky Starting August 1st
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a new law allowing the postponement of public debt payments until October, potentially leading to a sovereign default. The legislation enables a moratorium on debt obligations during restructuring negotiations, as the current payment freeze is set to expire on August 1. Ukraine recently reached a preliminary agreement with major bondholders to restructure nearly $20 billion in international debt, which includes a 37% nominal haircut, saving $11.4 billion over the next three years. This proposal awaits bondholder approval, likely due to foreign government support. Fitch Ratings downgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from "CC" to "C" following the agreement. The country's reliance on foreign aid has grown since the 2022 Russian invasion, leading to a debt freeze agreement with creditors. With the conflict ongoing, EU parliamentarians and others had anticipated a move toward default, and private bondholders are expected to extend Ukraine's debt payments until 2027 to reduce the impact on long-term borrowing.
State Department Clerical Error Results in Taliban Receiving $239MN in US Aid
A SIGAR report released in July 2024 revealed that $239 million in U.S. aid meant for counterterrorism in Afghanistan was misallocated to the Taliban due to the State Department’s failed vetting process. The report identified at least 29 grants erroneously awarded to the Taliban, exposing lapses within the State Department’s “Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor” and “International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs” divisions. SIGAR found that inadequate record-keeping and failure to adhere to counterterrorism partner vetting requirements led to the error. While the State Department acknowledged the oversight and pledged to improve its processes, critics argue that this failure reflects broader issues in the administration’s national security and foreign policy approaches. The misallocation of these funds not only misuses taxpayer dollars but also jeopardizes U.S. security interests, underscoring the need for enhanced oversight and stringent vetting procedures in foreign aid programs. The State Department will face increased scrutiny as it addresses these concerns and works to prevent future errors.
$3.9 Billion in ‘Budgetary Aid’ Given to Ukraine through World Bank
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine has received $3.9 billion in direct budgetary aid from the United States, delivered through the World Bank. This amount represents the first installment of a $7.8 billion aid package for 2024, intended to support Ukraine's war-torn infrastructure and essential services. The funds will be used for priority expenditures, including salaries for rescue workers, doctors, and teachers, as well as public pensions, social benefits, and potentially agricultural support. This aid is part of a broader $95 billion foreign military aid bill signed by President Biden in April, with $61 billion allocated specifically for Ukraine. The aid is structured as a loan, with provisions allowing the U.S. president significant authority to forgive it if necessary. While most of the $60 billion earmarked for Ukraine is expected to benefit the U.S. defense industry through weaponry purchases, this direct aid aims to help sustain Ukrainian governmental functions and prevent societal collapse amid ongoing conflict.
Israel to Receive $3.5 Billion in Military Aid From US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel’s security during a call with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, coinciding with the announcement of a $3.5 billion military aid package from the U.S. State Department. This aid, aimed at enhancing Israeli military capabilities amidst rising regional tensions, will finance American weapons systems currently in production rather than delivering new arms immediately. Blinken's call emphasized both support and the necessity for de-escalation to avoid worsening the conflict. He stressed that escalation would be detrimental and underscored the need for diplomatic efforts to resolve the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, including facilitating the return of displaced individuals. Blinken highlighted the importance of achieving a ceasefire as a crucial step toward releasing hostages and delivering humanitarian aid, aligning U.S. support with calls for a balanced approach to the ongoing conflict.
25% of Tax Revenue Goes to Pay Interest as US Records 2nd Biggest July Deficit
The U.S. budget deficit has worsened significantly, with July 2024 marking a $243.7 billion deficit, the second largest for the month on record. This deficit, compounded by a decline in tax revenue to $330.4 billion from $466.3 billion in June, highlights ongoing fiscal distress as government outlays reached $573.1 billion. For the fiscal year 2024, the cumulative deficit has surged to $1.517 trillion, mirroring last year's extensive deficit despite the absence of major emergencies or wars. The six-month moving average of government spending has hit its highest level since August 2021, driven by excessive spending and rising interest payments on the national debt. Interest payments alone are projected to exceed $1.1 trillion this year, potentially surpassing Social Security and other major expenditures by 2025. As the U.S. continues its high spending and debt accumulation, concerns grow about the long-term viability of its fiscal policies and the potential erosion of the dollar’s reserve status.
WAR (and rumors of war)
US MILITARY
Air Force Hinted at the Existence of Top-Secret Spy Aircraft
Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall has hinted at the existence of a new intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platform, potentially the RQ-180 stealth drone, amidst the retirement of the U-2, RQ-4 Global Hawk, and E-8C JSTARS. The new ISR capabilities may include a mix of space-based and terrestrial systems, including the E-7 and other classified technologies. This move reflects a shift towards a distributed ISR approach, utilizing advanced networking and satellite constellations to provide comprehensive data collection and analysis. However, these new systems may not fully replace the versatility of atmospheric platforms, highlighting a need for redundancy in intelligence gathering. The planned retirement of the U-2 and RQ-4 by 2026 and 2027, respectively, is driven by their increasing vulnerability to modern air defenses, particularly from adversaries like China and Russia. The future ISR landscape will likely involve a combination of manned, unmanned, and space-based assets to address these challenges and provide near-real-time data analysis.
Ukraine’s F-16s to be Armed with US Advanced Weapons
The US has agreed to enhance Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets by equipping them with advanced weapons, including the AIM-120 AMRAAM, which has an effective range of over 20 miles and can neutralize low-altitude targets. The jets will also be armed with Raytheon's AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles for short-range engagements, utilizing infrared homing guidance for precision in electronically challenged environments. Additionally, the F-16s may be fitted with AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles and JDAMs, which convert unguided bombs into smart weapons. These weapons are familiar to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, already used to bolster ground defenses. While no specific timeline for delivery has been disclosed, an initial batch of F-16s is expected this summer, with up to 20 jets anticipated by year's end. The arrival of these aircraft raises concerns about potential Russian targeting, posing risks to towns near major air bases.
US Increasing Naval Presence in Middle East Ahead of Possible Iranian Retaliation
The United States is sending additional naval and military resources to the Middle East in anticipation of a potential retaliatory attack from Iran following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers, destroyers, and an additional fighter squadron to the region, along with the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt. This deployment aims to maintain a strong U.S. presence and readiness in the area. The U.S. is also preparing for potential threats by increasing its land-based ballistic missile defenses. The escalation follows Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps attributing Haniyeh's death to a "short-range projectile" fired outside his guesthouse. The U.S. and its allies are on high alert, anticipating possible Iranian retaliation. U.S. airlines have begun canceling flights to Tel Aviv, and the State Department has issued a level four travel advisory, urging U.S. citizens in southern Lebanon to leave amid rising tensions.
Squadron of US F-22 Raptor Fighters Heading to Iran’s ‘Doorstep’
The United States is increasing its military presence in the Middle East by deploying F-22 Raptors and other fighter squadrons amidst rising tensions with Iran and its allied militant groups. This buildup, which includes guided-missile cruisers and destroyers, follows recent incidents such as the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and a missile strike in Lebanon that killed a Hezbollah official. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) announced this enhanced force posture to deter further escalation and protect U.S. personnel and interests, including Israel. The F-22 Raptors, known for their air superiority capabilities, will join existing forces, including F-15E Strike Eagles, F-16 Fighting Falcons, and an A-10 Thunderbolt CAS squadron. Additional aerial refueling tanks are also being deployed to support these combat aircraft. The exact arrival time and operating base of the F-22s have not been disclosed. This deployment aims to serve as a deterrent and, if necessary, to assert air superiority in the region.
US Bolsters Israeli Defense in the Middle East with Deployment of US Navy F-18s
Around a dozen F/A-18 fighter jets from the USS Theodore Roosevelt have been deployed to a military base in the Middle East as part of a Pentagon effort to defend Israel and protect U.S. troops amid rising regional tensions. The jets, along with an E-2D Hawkeye surveillance aircraft, arrived at the undisclosed base on Monday from the Gulf of Oman. This deployment follows recent escalations, including the killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in suspected Israeli strikes. In response, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the increased presence. The F/A-18s' deployment is temporary, with Air Force F-22s expected to replace them soon. This move coincides with a rocket attack on a U.S. base in Iraq, injuring five American service members and two contractors. The attack is part of a broader trend of increased strikes by Iranian-backed militias, although it is not directly linked to recent killings of militant leaders.
US Moves Another Carrier Strike Group with F-35s Along, Missile Sub with Tomahawks to Middle East
The U.S. is intensifying its military presence in the Middle East by accelerating the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and sending the guided-missile submarine USS Georgia to the region. This action follows heightened tensions after Israel's recent killings of key Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, which prompted threats of retaliation from Iran and its proxies. The Pentagon's decision, announced by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, underscores U.S. support for Israel and aims to deter potential aggression from Iran. The Lincoln, with its carrier air wing including F-35C stealth fighters, will bolster the existing U.S. naval presence, joining the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the region. The unusual disclosure of the USS Georgia's movements signals a clear message to regional adversaries. Austin's call with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant further emphasized the U.S. commitment to defending Israel amid escalating tensions. This deployment adds to the U.S.'s extensive military capabilities already operating in the Middle East, including forces in the Eastern Mediterranean and off the coast of Yemen.
Massive Air Combat Exercise with China-Focus Off California Coast
The U.S. Air Force's Bamboo Eagle 24-3 exercise, running from August 2 to August 9, is a large-scale warfighting drill designed to prepare for potential conflict with China in the Pacific. This exercise, involving over 150 aircraft and more than 3,000 service members from various units, focuses on maritime operations, long-range over-water air combat, and the logistics of resupply and distribution in a contested environment. Aircraft like B-1B and B-52 bombers, F-16, F-22, and F-35 fighters, along with support assets, participate from bases along the California coast. The exercise blends live and virtual elements, testing command and control in simulated scenarios, and emphasizes Agile Combat Employment, which involves dispersed operations across different locations. Bamboo Eagle, an extension of the Red Flag exercise, highlights the U.S. military's shift towards maritime-focused training and preparation for high-intensity conflict in the Indo-Pacific region, aligning with the Pentagon's strategic focus on addressing challenges posed by China.
USAF Conducts QUICKSINK Exercise in the Gulf of Mexico
The U.S. Air Force's recent QUICKSINK exercise showcased an effective, low-cost method for neutralizing surface vessels. Conducted in the Gulf of Mexico near Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, the exercise involved sinking the MV Monarch Countess and demonstrated the technology's ability to address maritime threats across vast ocean areas. QUICKSINK, developed in collaboration with the U.S. Navy’s Maritime Weapon Program at Eglin, enhances anti-ship capabilities using air-launched weapons. Col. Matthew Caspers of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) emphasized that the technology supports U.S. strategic interests by ensuring maritime dominance and operational freedom. This exercise follows a similar event in 2022 and aligns with recent demonstrations of QUICKSINK capabilities during the second RIMPAC SINKEX. AFRL’s Munitions Directorate, which focuses on technological innovation to meet current and future defense challenges, views QUICKSINK as a crucial tool for countering maritime threats and advancing the Department of Defense's weapon systems.
FORTRESS EUROPE
Poland Inks Deal to Purchase 48 Patriot Batteries and Other Air-to-Air Missiles
Poland has signed a $1.23 billion contract to build 48 M903 launchers for the U.S.-designed Patriot air and missile defense systems, part of its accelerated military modernization in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The launchers, to be produced at Stalowa Wola steelworks, are expected to be delivered between 2027 and 2029. Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized that the deal enhances Poland's security. As a strong ally of Ukraine, Poland plans to spend over 4% of its GDP on defense this year, doubling NATO’s target. Recently, Poland also signed a deal with the U.S. to purchase AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missiles and is set to acquire 96 AH-64E Apache combat helicopters for over $9 billion, replacing its aging Soviet-era Mi-24 fleet.
Norway Gets US Approval to Buy 16 HIMARS
The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of 16 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to Norway, valued at $580 million. This potential sale includes advanced missile systems and artillery designed to enhance Norway’s mid-range fire capability and bolster its defense against current and future threats, particularly in response to the ongoing Ukraine war. The sale aims to increase Norway's military interoperability with U.S. and allied forces, further supporting NATO’s collective security. Lockheed Martin will be the principal contractor, with specific offset agreements to be determined during negotiations. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency emphasized that this sale aligns with U.S. foreign policy and national security goals, strengthening a key NATO ally without disrupting the military balance in the region. Norway has already demonstrated its commitment to supporting Ukraine by donating multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), with three systems provided in June 2022 and an additional eight announced in collaboration with the UK in May 2023.
Leaked Documents Reveal Russia Ready to Execute Nuclear Attacks on NATO Targets
The Financial Times has reported leaked Russian plans from 2008 to 2014 detailing potential "overwhelming strikes" across Western Europe. These documents suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin envisioned using the Russian navy to execute nuclear strikes against NATO territory if a conflict arose. The plans allegedly included targeting a vast array of sites across Europe, encompassing both military and civilian infrastructure. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) was intended to reduce such threats by limiting nuclear arsenals, but doubts about Moscow's compliance persist. Potential targets reportedly include France's west coast, military sites in Norway, Germany, Estonia, and the British port town of Barrow-in-Furness, known for nuclear submarine production. Experts like Jeffrey Lewis and Anton Bendarzsevszkij express concern that Russia might view tactical nuclear warheads as key to a decisive victory, contributing to a renewed global arms race reminiscent of the Cold War era. Russia is estimated to hold over 5,500 nuclear warheads, while the U.S. possesses just over 5,000.
Germany Posts Arrest Warrant for Ukrainian Citizen Over Nord Stream Sabotage
Germany has issued its first arrest warrant for a Ukrainian citizen, identified only as "Volodymyr Z.," in connection with the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. This European Arrest Warrant, revealed by German media, is part of an ongoing investigation into the explosions that severely damaged the pipelines transporting Russian gas to northern Europe. Volodymyr Z., a Ukrainian diving instructor, is suspected of involvement in the sabotage, though German authorities have not confirmed this or the existence of any other suspects, who are also reportedly Ukrainian diving instructors. The warrant, reportedly active for several months, has raised questions about why Volodymyr Z. was able to flee Poland, where he was last known to reside. The situation has led to speculation about potential diplomatic tensions between Germany and Poland, with some reports suggesting Warsaw may have been lenient or warned the suspect. The Nord Stream sabotage, which occurred on September 26, 2022, remains shrouded in mystery, with various theories about the perpetrators, including the possibility of Ukrainian involvement.
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
Hezbollah Top Commander Fuad Shukr Killed in Israeli Airstrike on Beirut
Hezbollah confirmed the death of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in an Israeli airstrike on southern Beirut. The Israeli military targeted Shukr, who was allegedly responsible for a missile attack in Majdal Shams that killed 12 children. The strike hit the densely populated Haret Hreik neighborhood near Hezbollah's Shura Council, killing three and injuring 74. Hezbollah vowed to respond, with leader Hassan Nasrallah scheduled to address Shukr’s funeral. Shukr, a founder of Hezbollah and a long-time target of both Israel and the U.S., was also listed on the U.S. Rewards for Justice website. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated preparedness for potential further conflict, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the attacks as a dangerous escalation, urging efforts towards a Gaza ceasefire. The situation remains tense, with potential regional repercussions from both Hezbollah and Iran in response to recent escalations.
Israel Kills Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran
Hamas' top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a predawn airstrike in Tehran, with Iran and Hamas blaming Israel for the assassination, potentially escalating tensions in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not directly address the killing but warned of challenging days ahead. The attack followed Israel's threats against Hamas leaders after the group's October 7 attack on Israel. Iran's supreme leader vowed revenge, and the assassination raised fears of broader conflict, possibly involving direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. Haniyeh's death could disrupt cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas and intensify the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The U.S. has not confirmed Israel's involvement, and international efforts are focused on preventing further escalation. Hamas vowed to continue its resistance, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned of a harsh response. The situation remains volatile, with the potential for significant repercussions across the Middle East.
Rocket Attack on US Base Inside Iraq Injures US Personnel
On Monday, a rocket attack on the Ain al-Assad base in western Iraq, which hosts U.S. and coalition forces, resulted in multiple injuries among American personnel. This attack, one of several targeting the base in recent months, adds to the heightened regional tensions amid fears of an Iranian counterattack on Israel following the deaths of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were briefed on the incident, with a statement indicating ongoing efforts to defend and respond to attacks on U.S. forces. The rocket fire also hit a nearby village but caused no damage there. This incident follows a recent U.S. strike on combatants launching drones deemed threats, which Iraqi sources reported as killing four. Attacks on U.S. bases had been frequent early in the Israel-Hamas war but had diminished until recently. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a pro-Iran group, claimed many attacks in solidarity with Palestinians. The U.S. maintains about 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria.
Houthis Attack Another Container Ship and Claim to Have Downed US MQ-9 Drone
The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has heightened tensions in the Middle East, approaching the brink of major conflict. Over the past weekend, Iran-backed Houthis targeted the Liberian-flagged container ship *Groton* in the Gulf of Aden with a missile, causing minor hull damage but no significant oil leaks. Additionally, the Houthis claimed responsibility for downing a U.S. MQ-9 drone. The *Groton* was en route from the UAE to Saudi Arabia when attacked and later reappeared in Djibouti. The Houthis have escalated their campaign, targeting over 70 vessels, seizing one, and sinking two since their recent offensive began. In response, the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is replacing the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the region. The Biden administration's Operation Prosperity Guardian, aimed at ensuring maritime security, has been challenged by persistent Houthi threats and the potential for escalating conflict. There is concern that Iran might retaliate against Israel, potentially driving Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel.
Russian Specialized Il-76TD Weapons Transport Landed in Iran
A Russian Il-76TD aircraft from Gelix Airlines, which has a history of transporting weapons, landed at Tehran Airport on August 2, according to Iran Observer. Gelix Airlines has previously been implicated in delivering military equipment to conflict zones, including Syria, Sudan, and Libya. The IL-76TD can carry a variety of military hardware, including armored vehicles, artillery, and troops. Despite recent tensions following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran, U.S. intelligence has not detected any imminent Iranian military strike on Israel. While Iran's regional proxies show no signs of preparing for a major offensive, U.S. officials believe Iran may take time to plan its response, with an unlikely large-scale assault. The situation remains tense, with uncertainty over Iran's next moves.
Iran Issues NOTAM Airspace Warning in Middle East
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned during a G7 conference call that Iran and Hezbollah could launch an attack on Israel as early as Monday. This information, reported by Barak Ravid on Axios, was confirmed by three U.S. and Israeli officials. Iran has issued a NOTAM advising aircraft to avoid certain areas in the center, west, and northwest of the country due to potential dangers. The anticipated attack is expected to be "more aggressive" than Iran's previous strike on April 13, according to an Israeli official cited by CBS News.
Russian Military Advising Houthis Inside Yemen Claims US Intelligence
Russian GRU military intelligence officers are reportedly aiding Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen with targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea. According to U.S. intelligence, Russian advisors have been present in Yemen for several months, providing support to the Houthis, who claim their attacks are in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Russia's involvement is part of a broader effort to strengthen ties with the Houthis, despite earlier hesitations to supply advanced anti-ship missiles due to Saudi opposition. U.S. officials are concerned that Russia's actions could be a strategic move to counter U.S. support for Ukraine by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Houthis have been actively targeting vessels since the October 7 Hamas-led attacks on Israel, and while Russian-flagged ships have largely avoided strikes, those carrying Russian cargo have been hit. This involvement highlights Russia’s strategic interests in the region and its possible attempts to leverage the Middle East as a counterbalance to U.S. actions in Ukraine.
Russia and Iran Reportedly Deepen Ties with Delivery of Advanced Air Defense System
According to The New York Times, Russia has started delivering advanced air defense and radar equipment to Iran following a request from Tehran. Iranian state media reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a commitment to deepening ties with Russia during a meeting with Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s security council. Pezeshkian praised Russia for its support during challenging times and criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza and the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, labeling them as violations of international law. Russia, which has supported Hamas and other allied groups, condemned Haniyeh's killing and urged restraint to prevent further escalation in the Middle East. Pezeshkian highlighted the shared goal of promoting a multipolar world to enhance global security and peace. Shoigu, who was Russia’s defense minister before joining the security council, was seen meeting with Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Attacks Intensify on Israeli-Lebanon Border Ahead of Anticipated Larger-Scale Strikes
Cross-border fighting between Hezbollah and Israel is intensifying as Iran and its regional proxies, including Hezbollah, prepare for a large-scale retaliation in response to the assassinations of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30 and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for several attacks on Israeli military targets, resulting in injuries on both sides, including at least five Hezbollah fighters killed by an Israeli airstrike. Israeli officials reported injuries from ongoing Hezbollah drone strikes, with one incident involving a malfunctioning air defense interceptor that struck a roadway near Nasariya, causing multiple casualties. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has vowed a strong and coordinated response, potentially involving other Iranian-backed groups across the region, as tensions continue to escalate. In a show of force, Israeli Air Force jets conducted sonic booms over Beirut shortly before Nasrallah’s speech, further heightening the confrontation.
NOTAM Issued Over Iran for Airlines During Oddly Specific Night Hours
Egypt issued a rare NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) instructing its airlines to avoid Iranian airspace from 01:00 to 04:00 GMT on Thursday, prompting other countries like the UK to follow suit. The alert is due to overnight "military exercises" in Iran, as reported by Reuters. The unusual nature of the NOTAM suggests heightened concerns about a possible Iranian response to recent tensions. The alert comes amid fears of a broader conflict following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) held an emergency meeting in Jeddah, highlighting concerns that Haniyeh's killing could escalate regional tensions. Airlines are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace, reflecting anxiety over potential disruptions. Analysts suggest that the conclusion of the OIC meeting could signal imminent escalation, with tonight possibly being critical. The NOTAM indicates heightened precautionary measures amid these volatile regional dynamics.
Iron Dome Fails to Intercept Hezbollah Missile Strike on Northern Israel
Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets from Lebanon into northern Israel, targeting Israeli military installations and the Western Galilee in retaliation for recent Israeli strikes. The Israeli Iron Dome defense system intercepted some rockets, but several projectiles breached the defense, causing fires in open fields. Hezbollah claimed the attack was in response to the Israeli assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Despite the damage reported, including a missile hitting a building in the Mount Hermon region, Israeli authorities reported no casualties. Hezbollah has also evacuated its Beirut headquarters, anticipating further retaliation. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized vigilance and preparedness in the face of escalating threats from Tehran and Hezbollah. The Pentagon is bolstering regional defenses with additional naval assets, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and the USS Georgia guided missile submarine, in preparation for potential Iranian and Hezbollah actions.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
First Batch of F-16s Arrive in Ukraine
Ukraine has received its first batch of F-16 fighter jets from the international coalition, confirmed by a U.S. official, though the exact number of jets remains undisclosed. While the Ukrainian government has not publicly confirmed the arrival, the aircraft are expected to bolster the Ukrainian Air Force alongside existing Soviet-era MiG-29s and Su-27s. Preparations for the F-16s include measures to protect them from Russian attacks, such as using underground bunkers and dispersing them across various airstrips. Ukrainian pilots have been training in the UK, U.S., Denmark, and Romania to operate the jets. The F-16s, equipped with Western weapons systems, are not expected to achieve air superiority alone but will play a significant role in a larger, complex military strategy involving electronic warfare and long-range radar detection. The arrival of these jets represents a critical step in modernizing Ukraine's air capabilities amid ongoing conflict with Russia.
On the Same Day Ukraine Receives First F-16s, Russia Holds 3rd Phase of Tactical Nuke Drills
Russia's Ministry of Defense announced the start of the third and final phase of drills to practice the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, in coordination with Belarus. This follows previous drills in May and June and coincides with Ukraine's receipt of its first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets from European allies. The F-16s, expected to total at least 79, are being supplied by the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway. The US plans to equip these jets with advanced weaponry, including air-to-ground and air-to-air missiles. Russia, which views the F-16s as capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, has issued warnings about the potential consequences, including possible attacks on NATO bases from which these jets are deployed.
Russian State TV States that Tactical Nuclear Weapons are ‘Already There’ in Ukraine
On Russian state TV, Alexei Mukhin, head of the pro-Kremlin think tank Center for Political Information, suggested without evidence that Ukraine has received tactical nuclear weapons from the West, possibly linked to the recent arrival of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the jets' arrival, but there is no proof of nuclear weapons being sent. Mukhin's claim is part of a broader narrative by pro-Kremlin media since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, despite Ukraine's nuclear disarmament under the Budapest Memorandum. Another guest, Konstantin Zatulin of the United Russia party, disagreed, doubting any provision of tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine. The Kremlin has vowed to shoot down the F-16s, asserting they won't change the war's outcome. Concurrently, Russia has been conducting tactical nuclear weapons drills since May, now in their third stage, involving its Southern and Central Military Districts, citing Western provocations as justification.
Russian Propogandist Floats Idea of Nuclear Strike on Kursk Region Inside Own Territory
On Russian state TV, propagandist Sergey Mardan suggested a nuclear strike on Ukraine's forces in Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops have reportedly occupied 11 settlements since Tuesday. Mardan argued that Kursk, an "indigenous historical Russian core," warrants such a response. Thousands of Kursk residents have been evacuated, and a state of emergency has been declared. While Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed Ukrainian advances, he condemned the incursion as a "large-scale provocation." Mardan acknowledged that a nuclear strike would upset the world but believed it would be deemed logical in this context. The incursion has seen Ukraine seize the Sudzha gas facility, a key site for Russian gas exports to Europe, and capture over 40 Russian prisoners. The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War and Radio Free Europe documented significant damage at the Sudzha checkpoint. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that Washington would reach out to Ukraine for more information on their objectives in the region.
Fire at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported Monday that its experts inspected the damaged cooling tower at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and found no evidence of a drone. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that the team observed burnt areas higher up in the tower, near the water nozzle distribution level, and collected debris samples, including burnt plastic, but found no tire or drone remnants. This follows a dispute between Ukraine and Russia over the fire's origin, with Russia accusing Ukrainian forces of using a drone and Ukraine blaming Russian troops. Grossi noted that the base of the cooling tower showed no significant disturbance of debris or soot and assured that nuclear safety at the plant remained unaffected. While the team could not draw definitive conclusions from their initial findings, further analysis will continue, including an additional review of the water nozzle distribution level and cold-water basin.
GEOPOLITICS
Amid Countdown to Zero Hour, Putin’s Top Defense Official is in Tehran
As tensions rise in the Middle East, Russian and U.S. defense delegations are active in Tehran and Tel Aviv, respectively. Sergei Shoigu, Russia's former Defense Minister and current National Security Council secretary, is in Tehran for meetings with Iranian leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, to strengthen security cooperation. Russia's involvement is seen amid speculation that it may be aiding Iran against potential Israeli attacks, especially after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Concurrently, General Michael Kurilla of U.S. Central Command is in Israel to assess the situation and coordinate responses to Iranian threats. Both nations are rallying international support: Iran has called for an emergency Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting to seek backing for a military response. The anticipation of an Iranian attack might extend into later this week, with U.S. President Joe Biden scheduled to meet with his national security team to assess developments.
Russian Intel Claims US Lining Up Possible Replacement for Zelensky
Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claims that the U.S. is planning to discredit Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to replace him with a more compliant figure, potentially former Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. The SVR alleges growing frustration among U.S. lawmakers over Zelensky's management of military aid and his increasingly erratic actions, which risk escalating the conflict beyond Ukraine. The U.S. is reportedly considering Avakov, who served as interior minister after the 2014 Western-backed coup in Kiev, due to his ties with Ukrainian far-right groups and EU leaders. The SVR suggests that a leadership change could better position the West for potential negotiations with Russia. Discussions about Avakov's possible leadership are said to involve key Ukrainian opposition figures, including former President Pyotr Poroshenko and ex-Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko. Avakov's controversial past, including his support for the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion and his role during the deadly 2014 Odessa fire, has drawn criticism, yet he remains a "suitable" candidate in the eyes of U.S. officials, according to the SVR.
“Global Health Emergency” Over Monkeypox Declared by WHO
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared an outbreak of mpox (formerly monkeypox) in Africa a public health emergency, following a recommendation from its emergency committee. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reported over 14,000 cases and 524 deaths in Africa this year, noting a concerning rise in cases and the emergence of a new strain. Mpox, a virus that can spread between people and animals, causes symptoms such as a rash and can occasionally be fatal. The declaration, the highest level of alert by the WHO, signifies a significant international health risk, similar to the COVID-19 emergency declared in 2020. This is the second time in two years that mpox has been classified as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), following its initial declaration in 2022 and subsequent de-escalation in 2023. The renewed emergency raises questions about the timing and future implications of the outbreak, as concerns grow over its spread and impact.